Does the Incidence of COVID-19 Pandemic Affect Rice Yield? Lessons from Southeast Nigeria

*Nnaemeka Success Esiobu*

#### **Abstract**

Across Nigeria, while rice farmers are still battling the negative impact of climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought a new risk that threatens not only farmers' livelihoods but also the most important global food security crop "rice". Every farming season, rice farmers face risks such as low rainfall, price volatility, and poor government policies. But the present risks from the COVID-19 pandemic are putting new challenges in front of rice value-chain that is already under serious threat. As a matter of urgency, farmers must respond to this new threat by choosing measures that increase their yield. Incidentally, empirical studies that documented the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on rice yield cannot be found as at the time of this study. These create emptiness in research. With this present threat, Nigeria is likely to experience a reversal in the development gains already achieved and will be unlikely to achieve the Agenda 2030 Goals.

**Keywords:** rice, perceived effect of COVID-19 pandemic, barriers, recommendations, Southeast Nigeria

#### **1. Introduction**

The first human cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus causing COVID-19, subsequently named SARS-CoV-2 were first reported by officials in Wuhan City, China, in December 2019 [1]. Retrospective investigations by Chinese authorities have identified human cases with onset of symptoms in early December 2019 [2]. While some of the earliest known cases had a link to a wholesale food market in Wuhan, some did not. Many of the initial patients were stall owners, market employees, or regular visitors to this market. Environmental samples taken from this market in December 2019 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, further suggesting that the market in Wuhan City was the source of this outbreak or played a role in the initial amplification of the outbreak [3]. The market was closed on 1 January 2020. The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic on 11 March 2020 [4]. Since 31 December 2019 and as of 17 August 2020, 21,852,364 cases of COVID-19 (under the applied case definitions and testing strategies in the affected countries) have been reported, including 773,586 deaths globally and 1,123,493 cases across sub-Saharan African (SSA) [1].

The first confirmed case in Nigeria was announced on 27 February 2020, when an Italian citizen in Lagos tested positive for the virus [5]. Specifically, across

sub-Saharan African (SSA) and as at 17th August 2020 the five countries reporting most cases are South Africa (587,345), Egypt (96,475), Nigeria (49,068), Ghana (42,653) and Algeria (38,583) [6]. The African continent is already grappling with food security challenges. Locust swarms in the Horn of Africa, regional insecurity and conflict, climate-change-related droughts and flooding are destroying crops and the livelihoods of millions of African smallholder farmers [7]. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic potentially undermines the capacity of both short-term production and distribution. With its far-reaching geographical spread, the pandemic is projected to have devastating effects on the global economy, as attested by the projection of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April 2020 that the world economy would contract sharply by 3%, and that the economy of sub-Saharan Africa would contract by 1.60% in 2020 [8, 9]. Furthermore, Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) has projected that, in a worst-case scenario, economic activity for Africa as a whole would contract by 2.60%, with negative impacts on the employment rate, and that estimated that four out of five businesses in Africa would be significantly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic [10]. The African Development Bank (AfDB) predicted an economic contraction for the continent of 3.40% [11].

majority of the inhabitants depend on rice production for their livelihood. Rice is highly susceptible to seasonal shock, greenhouse gases and climate vagaries because of its sensitivity to changing climatic conditions [14]. The COVID-19 pandemic is already affecting the livelihoods of rural communities across Southeast Nigeria, which is predominately rice-based, and increasing their vulnerability as well. The increasing variability, greenhouse gases, intensity and erratic nature of rainfall, rising incidence of flood and soil erosion, and serious decline in agricultural yields are among the obvious climate change hazards ravaging communities across Southeast Nigeria [14, 16, 17]. To overcome this challenge, rice production/yield should be increased particularly now there is new threat for farmers. As a matter of urgency, farmers must respond to this new threat (COVID-19) by choosing

*Does the Incidence of COVID-19 Pandemic Affect Rice Yield? Lessons from Southeast Nigeria*

Incidentally, empirical studies that documented the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on rice yield cannot be found as at the time of this study. These create emptiness in research and make it extremely difficult if not impossible for the government/interest group to know the method they can use in helping farmers mitigate the negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic in rice production. Southeast

*Epi-curve of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Nigeria as at 15th August 2020 [5].*

*Confirmed COVID-19 cases in Africa overtime as at 14th August 2020 [6].*

measures that increase their yield.

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.93744*

**Figure 1.**

**Figure 2.**

**185**

In Nigeria, the pandemic has already precipitated rice crises by disrupting rice value-chain system, thereby posing a great threat to actors of the rice value chain system livelihoods as well as national food and nutritional security. The Nigerian government had initiated an early coordinated response to minimize the impact by developing strategies to facilitate free movement of rice seedlings and agricultural inputs exempted from lockdown. Although agricultural value chain area exempted from lockdown, limits on the mobility of farmhands are contributing to labor shortages for rice sectors as it is characterized by periods of peak seasonal labor demand and labor-intensive production. Additionally, harvesting and distribution season is imminent in rice values-chain, and a shortage of labor is leading to production losses and shortages in the market. In Nigeria, this comes on one of the top existing difficulties in sourcing seasonal and harvesting labor for rice. Therefore, rice (*Oryza spp*.), which is the second-largest most consumed cereal (after wheat), shapes the lives of millions of households globally [12]. More than half of the worlds' population depends on rice for about 80% of its food calorie requirements [13]. It has become a staple food in Nigeria such that every household, both the rich and the poor, consumes a great quantity [14]. A combination of various factors seems to have triggered the structural increase in rice consumption over the years with consumption broadening across all socioeconomic classes, including the poor [15]. The rising demand could be as a result of increasing population growth and income level coupled with the ease of its preparation and storage [14]. In Nigeria, while rice farmers are still battling the negative impact of climate change and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought a new risk that not only threatens farmers livelihoods but also the most important global food security crop "Rice". Every farming season in Nigeria, rice farmers face risks such as low rainfall, price volatility, methane emissions, rising debts and poor government policies. But the present risks from the COVID-19 pandemic are putting new challenges in front of rice value-chain that is already under serious threat. Additionally, the growing demand for rice across s sub-Saharan African (SSA) and particularly in Nigeria exceeds supply, resulting in a rice deficit. Currently, due to the present government objective on diversification of the economy, rice is grown in almost 36 states in Nigeria including Federal Capital Territory (FCT) under diverse production systems and agroclimatic conditions [14].

To the farmers across Southeast Nigeria, the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on agriculture, especially rice production, is very important. This is because the

### *Does the Incidence of COVID-19 Pandemic Affect Rice Yield? Lessons from Southeast Nigeria DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.93744*

majority of the inhabitants depend on rice production for their livelihood. Rice is highly susceptible to seasonal shock, greenhouse gases and climate vagaries because of its sensitivity to changing climatic conditions [14]. The COVID-19 pandemic is already affecting the livelihoods of rural communities across Southeast Nigeria, which is predominately rice-based, and increasing their vulnerability as well. The increasing variability, greenhouse gases, intensity and erratic nature of rainfall, rising incidence of flood and soil erosion, and serious decline in agricultural yields are among the obvious climate change hazards ravaging communities across Southeast Nigeria [14, 16, 17]. To overcome this challenge, rice production/yield should be increased particularly now there is new threat for farmers. As a matter of urgency, farmers must respond to this new threat (COVID-19) by choosing measures that increase their yield.

Incidentally, empirical studies that documented the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on rice yield cannot be found as at the time of this study. These create emptiness in research and make it extremely difficult if not impossible for the government/interest group to know the method they can use in helping farmers mitigate the negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic in rice production. Southeast

#### **Figure 1.**

sub-Saharan African (SSA) and as at 17th August 2020 the five countries reporting most cases are South Africa (587,345), Egypt (96,475), Nigeria (49,068), Ghana (42,653) and Algeria (38,583) [6]. The African continent is already grappling with food security challenges. Locust swarms in the Horn of Africa, regional insecurity and conflict, climate-change-related droughts and flooding are destroying crops and the livelihoods of millions of African smallholder farmers [7]. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic potentially undermines the capacity of both short-term production and distribution. With its far-reaching geographical spread, the pandemic is projected to have devastating effects on the global economy, as attested by the projection of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April 2020 that the world economy would contract sharply by 3%, and that the economy of sub-Saharan Africa would contract by 1.60% in 2020 [8, 9]. Furthermore, Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) has projected that, in a worst-case scenario, economic activity for Africa as a whole would contract by 2.60%, with negative impacts on the employment rate, and that estimated that four out of five businesses in Africa would be significantly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic [10]. The African Development Bank (AfDB) predicted an economic contraction for the continent of

In Nigeria, the pandemic has already precipitated rice crises by disrupting rice value-chain system, thereby posing a great threat to actors of the rice value chain system livelihoods as well as national food and nutritional security. The Nigerian government had initiated an early coordinated response to minimize the impact by developing strategies to facilitate free movement of rice seedlings and agricultural inputs exempted from lockdown. Although agricultural value chain area exempted from lockdown, limits on the mobility of farmhands are contributing to labor shortages for rice sectors as it is characterized by periods of peak seasonal labor demand and labor-intensive production. Additionally, harvesting and distribution season is imminent in rice values-chain, and a shortage of labor is leading to production losses and shortages in the market. In Nigeria, this comes on one of the top existing difficulties in sourcing seasonal and harvesting labor for rice. Therefore, rice (*Oryza spp*.), which is the second-largest most consumed cereal (after wheat), shapes the lives of millions of households globally [12]. More than half of the worlds' population depends on rice for about 80% of its food calorie requirements [13]. It has become a staple food in Nigeria such that every household, both the rich and the poor, consumes a great quantity [14]. A combination of various factors seems to have triggered the structural increase in rice consumption over the years with consumption broadening across all socioeconomic classes, including the poor [15]. The rising demand could be as a result of increasing population growth and income level coupled with the ease of its preparation and storage [14]. In Nigeria, while rice farmers are still battling the negative impact of climate change and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought a new risk that not only threatens farmers livelihoods but also the most important global food security crop "Rice". Every farming season in Nigeria, rice farmers face risks such as low rainfall, price volatility, methane emissions, rising debts and poor government policies. But the present risks from the COVID-19 pandemic are putting new challenges in front of rice value-chain that is already under serious threat. Additionally, the growing demand for rice across s sub-Saharan African (SSA) and particularly in Nigeria exceeds supply, resulting in a rice deficit. Currently, due to the present government objective on diversification of the economy, rice is grown in almost 36 states in Nigeria including Federal Capital Territory (FCT) under

diverse production systems and agroclimatic conditions [14].

To the farmers across Southeast Nigeria, the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on

agriculture, especially rice production, is very important. This is because the

3.40% [11].

*Recent Advances in Rice Research*

**184**

*Epi-curve of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Nigeria as at 15th August 2020 [5].*

#### **Figure 2.**

*Confirmed COVID-19 cases in Africa overtime as at 14th August 2020 [6].*

Nigeria has an estimated land mass of 32,610 km<sup>2</sup> and a population of 22,583,076 persons [18, 19]. On average, the poverty level in South East is about 43.00% which means that about 43.00% of South East citizens are classified as very poor [20]. Also it is estimated that the number of people living below the poverty line in developing countries of which Nigeria is included will rise by 29 million [21]. Therefore, this demonstrates how vulnerable farmers in the States and Nigeria in general are to COVID-19 pandemic (**Figures 1** and **2**).

based on the concentration of rice farmers to give a total of twenty-seven (27)

*Does the Incidence of COVID-19 Pandemic Affect Rice Yield? Lessons from Southeast Nigeria*

Agricultural Development Programme in the selected States.

**3.2 Data collection and data analysis**

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.93744*

Finally, stratified random sampling techniques was used to select 14 crop rice farmers from each of the 27 selected communities to give a total sample size of 504 respondents for the study. The list of farmers in the communities, which forms the sample frame, was obtained from the zonal extension agents of each of the State

Primary data was used for the study. Primary data was collected through the use of structured questionnaire and it was supplemented with interview schedule in places where the respondents could neither read nor write. The author developed and used a COVID-19 risk and effectiveness questionnaire to elicit data from the respondents. The questionnaire was contained both open and closed ended form of questions. Similarly, the questionnaire was properly subjected to content validity with the help of the research supervisors before administrating it to the respondents. The questionnaire was divided into five sections. Section one covered the socio-economic characteristics of the farmers. Section two dealt identifying the awareness to COVID-19 and sources of information on COVID-19 pandemic; Section three focused on determining COVID-19 pandemic precautionary measures use among farmers; section four measure the perceived effect of COVID-19 pandemic on rice yield and while section five identified the constraints in mitigating COVID-19 pandemic in rice farming. The survey was conducted at the onset of discovering of the index case of COVID-19 in Nigeria (27 February 2020) that is, from March to July 2020 with the help of two-hundred (200) enumerators i.e. forty

This study used descriptive statistical tools in analyzing the data. Descriptive statistics such as frequency distribution, percentages, mean, flow charts and 4-point likert scale type was used to analyze the data so as to realize objectives. The 4-point likert scale type was given as follows; 4 = Very High effectiveness; 3 = Highly

**4. Conceptual framework for the effect of COVID-19 in rice farming**

The conceptual framework that guided this study was developed by the authors based on literature review and field work is presented in **Figure 4**, it provides a clear links between independent or explanatory variables and dependent variables as well as summarizes the mechanisms through which COVID-19 pandemic affects rice farmers livelihood, farm resources, labor, rice production, health status, access to market, food security. To examine the effects of COVID-19 on rice farming, the author developed a concept to link the important variables as shown in **Figure 4**. Microeconomic explanation of individual and household poverty revolves around the understanding that an individual's labor (health and energy), human capital (education and skills), and physical and social assets (such as land and access to a social network) determine the individual's ability to generate income both today

4 þ 3 þ 2 þ 1 ¼ 10*=*4 (1)

<sup>¼</sup> <sup>2</sup>*:*50 cut‐off point (2)

effective; 2 = Moderately effective and 1 = Not effective.

communities.

(40) for each State.

and in the future [24–26].

**187**
