**1. Introduction**

This chapter aimed at viewing the differences in vulnerability levels between the people living in high potential zones and those living in low potential zones [1, 2]. The vulnerability refereed is that caused by stress and shocks caused by the impacts of climate change [3]. The global weather change has determined the livelihood setups in most developing countries [4]. In the countries with varied ecological gradients and agroecological zones, we expect diverse impacts in the livelihood systems [5]. Tanzania has seven agroecological zones with different soils, rainfalls, temperatures, vegetations, locations, and altitudes just to mention a few [6]. Some of these zones are endowed with diverse natural resources (high potential zones) like fertile soil, water sources, and favorable climate to mention a few, while other zones are poorly endowed (low potential zones). Therefore, the people in diverse zones have different entitlements. Their responses to stress are varied depending on the livelihood assets

and vulnerability [7]. In this aspect, vulnerability may refer to lack of asset to absorb shocks and recover from stress. Some of these assets include human, capital, physical, and technology just to mention few. Over the past two decades, most marginal areas (low potential areas) have been experiencing regular food insecurity due to poor crop yields [8]. This situation has been exacerbated by the rainfall variability, that is, change in seasons, erratic rainfalls, and increased droughts, which affects agricultural systems and reduces crop yields. According to Afifi et al. [9], climate change contributes up to 80% of crop failure in most vulnerable agricultural systems in Tanzania.

Since the 1990s, a number of wealth research findings have been done in Tanzania to address climate change impacts and its vulnerability. Among these studies are the following: Ahmed et al. [1], Paavola [3], Rowhani et al. [4], Yanda [5], Agrawala et al. [2], Mkonda and He [8], and Afifi et al. [9]. Despite addressing the temporal and spatial variability of climate change, most of these studies have limited focus on the ground exploration between the people living in low potential zones and those in high potential zones. The studies generally execute on how these impacts affect livelihoods but with little magnitudes on the comparison between groups. Climate change is expected to affect African countries in a variety of ways. For example, temperatures in Tanzania and the whole East African region are expected to rise by between 2 and 4°C by 2100, thus shifting agroecological zones in most areas [5, 10]. However, the impacts will be more pronounced in the already affected areas, especially in the semiarid agroecological zones and other marginal areas.

Predictions from global circulation models confirm that global warming will have a substantial impact on biodiversity and agricultural systems in Tanzania [11]. The changing weather patterns such as less predictable seasons, increasing events of erratic rainfall, and prolonged drought will stress on the already stressed areas and will threaten the sustainability of agriculture and food security in most parts of Tanzania [12]. Tanzanian rainfall is predicted to increase in areas with bimodal rainfall pattern from 5 to 45%, while decreasing in those with unimodal rainfall patterns from 5 to 15% [4, 13].

The vulnerability is going to increase in areas experiencing decreased rainfall, thus affecting livelihood systems of the dwellers [14, 15]. Soil replenishment through organic matter decomposition cannot simply take place in these areas [16]. Some areas with increasing rainfall may experience temporary floods and loss of soil fertility through leaching and runoff [5]. Under normal conditions, most of the poor people are squeezed in low potential zones due to entitlement failure [17]. As a livelihood strategy, some of these people living in marginal areas migrate to other areas.

They migrate (some with their herds of cattle) to areas with suitable agricultural systems and economic diversification [6, 18–20]. A good example is Usangu valleys (alluvial plain agroecological zone) which act as a destination of different people, especially pastoralists from other region with stressed environments.

Although the impacts of climate change have been globally established, there is a need to assess the magnitude of these effects in local conditions and diverse ecological gradients. Therefore, this chapter establishes the differential resiliences to climate impacts based on high and low potential zones. This will even enable climate practitioners and policy analysts to estimate the level of adjustments needed to curb climate impacts [21].

#### **2. Location**

Tanzania is located on the eastern coast of Africa, south of the equator, between latitudes 1° 00′ S and 11° 48′ S and longitudes 29° 30′ E and 39°45′. The eastern side of Tanzania is a coastline of about 800 km long marking the western side of

**221**

**Zone** 1. Coast

North: Tanga (except Lushoto), Coast, and Dares Salaam South: eastern Lindi and Mtwara (except Makonde plateau)

North: Serengeti, Ngorogoro Parks, and part of Masailand Masai Steppe, Tarangire Park, Mkomazi Reserve, Pangani, and Eastern Dodoma

3. Semiarid lands

Central Dodoma, Singida, Northern Iringa, some of Arusha, and Shinyanga

Central: undulating plains with rocky hills and low scarps. Well-drained soils with low fertility. Alluvial hardpan and saline soils in eastern rift valley and Lake Eyasi

Black cracking soils in Shinyanga

Southern: flat or undulating plains with rocky

Southeastern:

Southeastern: unimodal:

200–600 m

600–800 mm

hills, moderate fertile loams and clays in South

(Morogoro), and infertile sand soils in center

Western: wide sandy plains and rift valley scarps

Flooded swamps of Malagarasi and Ugalla rivers

have clay soil with high fertility

Southern: upland plains with rock hills

Clay soils of low to moderate fertility in south, and

infertile sands in north

800–1500 m

Western: unimodal,

November–April

800–1000 mm

Southern: unimodal, very

reliable, 900–1300 mm

Southern: Morogoro (except Kiliombero

and Wami Basins and Uluguru Mts.) and

also Lindi and Southwest Mtwara

Western: Tabora, Rukwa (north and

center), and Mbeya

North: Kigoma, part of Mara

Southern: Ruvuma and Southern

Morogoro

4. Plateaux

Pangani river flood plain with saline and alkaline soil

Central:

Central: unimodal and

December–March

unreliable: 500–800 mm

1000–1500 m

South: rolling plains of low fertility susceptible to water erosion

South: 500–1500 m

South: unimodal and unreliable, 400–600 mm

2. Arid lands

**Sub-zones**

**Soil and topography**

Infertile sands on gently rolling uplands

Alluvial soils in Rufuji sand and infertile soils

Fertile clays on uplands and river flood plains

North: volcanic ash and sediments. Soils are variable in texture and very susceptible to water erosion

North: 1300–1800 m

North: unimodal, unreliable, 500–600 mm

South: unimodal, 800–1200 mm

South: December–April

**Altitude** Under 3000 m

North: bimodal, 750–1200 mm

**Rainfall (mm/yr)**

**G/season** North: October–

December and March–June

*Climate Change Implications to High and Low Potential Zones of Tanzania*

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.93384*

March–May


#### *Climate Change Implications to High and Low Potential Zones of Tanzania DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.93384*

*Environmental Issues and Sustainable Development*

terns from 5 to 15% [4, 13].

to curb climate impacts [21].

and vulnerability [7]. In this aspect, vulnerability may refer to lack of asset to absorb shocks and recover from stress. Some of these assets include human, capital, physical, and technology just to mention few. Over the past two decades, most marginal areas (low potential areas) have been experiencing regular food insecurity due to poor crop yields [8]. This situation has been exacerbated by the rainfall variability, that is, change in seasons, erratic rainfalls, and increased droughts, which affects agricultural systems and reduces crop yields. According to Afifi et al. [9], climate change contributes up to 80% of crop failure in most vulnerable agricultural systems in Tanzania. Since the 1990s, a number of wealth research findings have been done in Tanzania to address climate change impacts and its vulnerability. Among these studies are the following: Ahmed et al. [1], Paavola [3], Rowhani et al. [4], Yanda [5], Agrawala et al. [2], Mkonda and He [8], and Afifi et al. [9]. Despite addressing the temporal and spatial variability of climate change, most of these studies have limited focus on the ground exploration between the people living in low potential zones and those in high potential zones. The studies generally execute on how these impacts affect livelihoods but with little magnitudes on the comparison between groups. Climate change is expected to affect African countries in a variety of ways. For example, temperatures in Tanzania and the whole East African region are expected to rise by between 2 and 4°C by 2100, thus shifting agroecological zones in most areas [5, 10]. However, the impacts will be more pronounced in the already affected areas, especially in the semiarid agroecological zones and other marginal areas. Predictions from global circulation models confirm that global warming will have a substantial impact on biodiversity and agricultural systems in Tanzania [11]. The changing weather patterns such as less predictable seasons, increasing events of erratic rainfall, and prolonged drought will stress on the already stressed areas and will threaten the sustainability of agriculture and food security in most parts of Tanzania [12]. Tanzanian rainfall is predicted to increase in areas with bimodal rainfall pattern from 5 to 45%, while decreasing in those with unimodal rainfall pat-

The vulnerability is going to increase in areas experiencing decreased rainfall,

Although the impacts of climate change have been globally established, there is a need to assess the magnitude of these effects in local conditions and diverse ecological gradients. Therefore, this chapter establishes the differential resiliences to climate impacts based on high and low potential zones. This will even enable climate practitioners and policy analysts to estimate the level of adjustments needed

Tanzania is located on the eastern coast of Africa, south of the equator, between

latitudes 1° 00′ S and 11° 48′ S and longitudes 29° 30′ E and 39°45′. The eastern side of Tanzania is a coastline of about 800 km long marking the western side of

thus affecting livelihood systems of the dwellers [14, 15]. Soil replenishment through organic matter decomposition cannot simply take place in these areas [16]. Some areas with increasing rainfall may experience temporary floods and loss of soil fertility through leaching and runoff [5]. Under normal conditions, most of the poor people are squeezed in low potential zones due to entitlement failure [17]. As a livelihood strategy, some of these people living in marginal areas migrate to other areas. They migrate (some with their herds of cattle) to areas with suitable agricultural systems and economic diversification [6, 18–20]. A good example is Usangu valleys (alluvial plain agroecological zone) which act as a destination of different people,

especially pastoralists from other region with stressed environments.

**220**

**2. Location**


**Table 1.**

*Agroecological zones of Tanzania.*

**223**

drought [7, 14].

ingredients [21, 22, 24, 25].

*Climate Change Implications to High and Low Potential Zones of Tanzania*

which is equivalent to 6.52% of the total area.

The country has about 44 million hectares of arable land. Tanzania has seven agroecological zones (**Table 1**). Eastern plateau and mountain blocks; southern highlands; northern highlands/northern rift valley and volcanic high lands, arid lands/central plateau; alluvial Plains/Rukwa-Ruaha rift zone; and semiarid lands/

Therefore, this study aimed to distinguish the level of vulnerability and proper adaptation strategies between the high and low potential areas of Tanzania [14].

It is obvious that the impact of climate change will continue to affect the biodiversity in most developing countries [22]. These effects are more pronounced and significant in vulnerable agro-biodiversity. IPCC 2014 reports that Tanzania is among the 13 countries in the world which are affected and most vulnerable to the impact of climate change [23]. This is evidenced by the reality seen on the ground. In this sense, climate change has impacted crop production, forest ecology, fishery

Furthermore, climate change has affected crop genetics, the functioning of the soil microbial (due to drought), landscape, and the entire livelihood systems of 75% of the Tanzanian population (i.e., farmers). Basing on our discussion, the people and biodiversity found in low/marginal areas are more stressed than those in high potential zones. The livelihood options of the poor people in the marginal areas are

Currently, the environment is stressed and has failed to support the people, thus the people are further subjected into distress. Prospectively, climate change will affect the ecosystem services and agricultural biodiversity, and the magnitude of the impacts will differ according to biophysical characteristics of the particular area [13].

The increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall (including the shift of rainfall pattern) have significant impact to crop production in most developing countries [1–5]. In most areas of the country, there is significant correlation between the trend of crop production and that of rainfall [3–5]. In the years with poor yields,

Agricultural systems are affected by drought and erratic rainfall, and therefore, the condition cannot support crop production. Specifically, crop failure has been more pronounced in the semiarid (i.e., Dodoma, Singida, Tabora, Manyara, and Shinyanga regions) due to prolonged drought and poor soil replenishment [2, 13]. Therefore, semiarid is among the marginal areas with excessive drought, crop failure, and food insecurity [3, 24]. As adaptation measure, farmers are advised to use drought-resistant crops and diverse crop varieties which are tolerant to

For example, SARO 5 rice varieties have been adopted in some rice-producing areas (such as Kilombero and parts of Kilosa districts) that face frequent droughts. Agronomic practices done in most marginal areas provide insights on how to optimize climate resilience in these areas. The dominant agricultural systems in these areas are monoculture, shifting cultivation, and extensive livestock rearing just to mention a few [21]. These practices have significant impacts to soil and its

, and out of this area, water

the Indian Ocean. Tanzania has a total of 945,087 km<sup>2</sup>

industry, and livestock just to mention a few [4, 20–22].

too limited as they entirely depend on the environment [5].

**3.1 Climate change impact on crop production**

there have been incidences of low rainfall.

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.93384*

**3. Climate change and biodiversity**

bodies cover 61,495 km2

inland sedimentary plateau.

#### *Climate Change Implications to High and Low Potential Zones of Tanzania DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.93384*

the Indian Ocean. Tanzania has a total of 945,087 km<sup>2</sup> , and out of this area, water bodies cover 61,495 km2 which is equivalent to 6.52% of the total area.

The country has about 44 million hectares of arable land. Tanzania has seven agroecological zones (**Table 1**). Eastern plateau and mountain blocks; southern highlands; northern highlands/northern rift valley and volcanic high lands, arid lands/central plateau; alluvial Plains/Rukwa-Ruaha rift zone; and semiarid lands/ inland sedimentary plateau.

Therefore, this study aimed to distinguish the level of vulnerability and proper adaptation strategies between the high and low potential areas of Tanzania [14].
