**Author details**

and deployment of emergency response resources, based upon areas most at risk to cyclones overall (strategic planning), and to specific storm events when these are first identified (tactical planning). For example, knowing that cyclones that develop in June are more likely to make landfall in Oman's northern part is valuable emer-

Globally, the urban area exposed to both flood and drought is forecast to at least double from 2000–2030 [32], indicating the growing importance of understanding and managing these risks. For Oman, the key risk is loss of life and damage from TC. Developing an improved understanding of TC occurrence and behavior, through historical analysis of TC timing and tracks should help to build resilience to TC, and climate change, for the country. Building resilience to TC requires a much wider process of institutional organization and action, which we discuss elsewhere [33] with specific reference to Oman's natural hazard management governance. However, a key element of natural hazard risk management is an understanding of the hazard itself. Our historical analysis of nearly a century and a half of TC tracks in the Arabian Sea, provides enhanced insight into the likely timing and location of TCs making landfall in Oman. This knowledge can support strategic decision making (e.g. prior appraisal of potential flood damage; location prioritization of mitigation resources) and improved understanding of likely destination of TC when they emerge in the Arabian Sea, thus supporting pre-emptive event management.

In Oman, tropical cyclones and storms are amongst the most significant natural hazards currently facing the country. Past TCs have resulted in significant loss of life, and billions of dollars in damage costs. The future incidence and behavior of TCs is uncertain, but prediction of a global reduction in TC frequency, but accompanied by an increase in intensity and rainfall when TCs do occur [8], seems to be borne out by recent decades of TC observation in the Arabian Sea region, where

From our analysis of all recorded Arabian Sea cyclones, we conclude that cyclone tracks vary according to season (pre-and post-monsoon) and month of formation. In the pre-monsoon, cyclones tend to form in the northeast Arabian Sea and moves to the north; in the post-monsoon cyclones tend to form to the south-

Whilst there are clearly exceptions evident in the historical record of Arabian TCs spatio-temporal analysis reveals clear seasonal and monthly patterns in the origins and tracks of TCs. This leads to an improved estimation of the likely fate of tropical systems, including a better understanding of where TC s are likely to make landfall in Oman, given their time and point of origin. This knowledge can help

gency planning intelligence.

*Agrometeorology*

**5. Conclusions**

**156**

fewer but more extreme events are evident.

east Arabian Sea and track to the west.

improve disaster planning for areas at high-risk.

Suad Al-Manji<sup>1</sup> \*, Gordon Mitchell<sup>2</sup> and Amna Al Ruheili<sup>3</sup>

1 Ministry of Education, Muscat, Oman,

2 University of Leeds, Leeds, UK

3 Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman

\*Address all correspondence to: suad.almanji@gmail.com

© 2021 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
