**4. Credit risks implications of climate change**

Credit risk is the risk of a financial loss resulting from a borrower's failure to repay part of or all the interests and the principal of a loan. Climate-related risks affect all three dimensions of credit risk—a borrower's capacity to generate enough income to service and repay its debt as well as the capital and collateral that back the loan [30].

For financial institutions, credit risks can materialize directly, through their exposures to corporations, households, and countries that experience climate shocks, or indirectly, through the effects of climate change on the wider economy and feedback effects within the financial system. Exposures manifest themselves through increased default risk of loan portfolios or lower values of assets [31].

Corporate credit portfolios are also at risk, as highlighted by the PG&E's bankruptcy. Increase in extreme and severe weather events could have second-round effects on the price of corporate bonds, and the rise in debt defaults would induce climate-related financial instability which would adversely affect credit expansion and magnify the negative impact of climate change on financial activity [19].

Transition risks materialize on the asset side of financial institutions, which could incur losses on exposure to firms with business models not built around the economics of low-carbon emissions [31]. Climate change mitigation policies to reduce GHG emissions can create costs for carbon-intensive sectors and companies, thereby influencing the credit quality of GHG-intensive borrowers and also credit risks to banks [32]. Ongoing developments in the international climate policy arena show there will be more rigorous future global climate policy regime. Noncompliance with mitigation policies might become reputational risks and therefore credit risks. Hence, both compliance and noncompliance with the mitigation policies will have implications for loan providers, equity investors, and project financiers [32].

Literature establishing the link between climate change and credit risk is growing. Kleimeier and Viehs [33] show a significant and negative relation between CO2 emission levels and the cost of bank loans. Delis, De Greif, and Ongena [34] observe that banks appeared to start pricing climate policy risk after the Paris Climate Agreement, while Ginglinger and Quentin [35] find that greater climate risk leads to lower leverage in the post-2015 period.

Capasso et al. [36] investigated the relationship between exposure to climate change and firm credit risk and found that the exposure to climate risks affects the creditworthiness of loans and bonds issued by corporates. Similarly, Delis et al. [34] demonstrated that climate policy risk is priced in syndicated loans, especially in sectors related to fossil fuel. Jung et al. [37] provided evidence of the existence of a positive association between the cost of debt and carbon-related risks for firms. Rajhi and Albuquerque [38] submitted that natural disasters are predictive of higher nonperforming loans and higher likelihood of default in developing countries. Battiston et al. [39] found that while direct exposures to the fossil fuel sector are small, the combined exposures to climate policy-relevant sectors are large, heterogeneous, and amplified by large indirect exposures via financial counterparties. Ilhan et al. [40] showed for a sample of S&P 500 companies that higher emissions increase downside risk—the potential losses that may occur if a particular investment position is taken. Monasterolo and De Angelis [41] indicated that investors require higher risk premia for carbon-intensive industries' equity.
