**3.2 The water sector**

*Global Warming and Climate Change*

With reference to climate change impacts, one of the sectors that has drawn research, policy and practical attention is the agricultural sector. Climatic events such as extreme temperatures, increase in frequency of extreme weather events, and rainfall variability are projected to affect agriculture in many ways. Noticeable impacts are already being felt in increased crop failures, pests, crop disease, and the degradation of land and water resources [8, 9]. The role of agriculture as an economic enabler deserves emphasis. Agriculture promotes value chain systems and contributes about 60% to manufacturing, while consuming almost 40% of the industrial output. The sector also has a share of around 30% of export earnings, constitutes 60–70% of employment, and about 19% of GDP [21]. In this way, the sector provides a major source of livelihood for over 70% of the country's population [21]. Owing to its deep intermesh with the rest of the economy, disruption in agriculture from climatic shocks could lead to overall economic decline. Clearly, this is a de-coupling challenge that needs appropriate interventions by taking advantage of the climate change situation. More than 70% of crop farming practice is rain fed [22]. This suggests that agriculture, food security, and nutrition are all highly sensitive to changes in rainfall associated with climate change. Specifically, climate change has been observed to trigger shifts in agricultural farming regions, with consequential loss in productivity [23, 24]. Given the regional differentiation of the climate system, where productivity follows the agro-ecological zones, climate change is believed to cause shrinkage in the highly productive regions. Agricultural performance productivity generally shows an east-west productivity gradient mainly influenced by the rainfall and temperature. This scheme, however, has been dismissed as obsolete and largely misleading in representing the current farming and ecological regions [23]. The main documented reasons for threats in farming production are high temperatures and precipitation irregularities reported by Mutasa [25] and Unganai [26]. The situation is blamed for causing arid environments that make it difficult for most food and cash crops to grow. The crops that are highly sensitive to heat include maize (a staple crop), tobacco (the major cash crop), wheat, soya beans, among others. Studies have shown a suitability gradient of different crops under different climatic scenarios. The areas suitable for maize production are projected to decrease by 2080, while spatial suitability of crops such as cotton and wheat is expected to increase by the same year [9]. However, it is believed that the north central and eastern areas of the country will likely to be less vulnerable to support production of

common crops such as maize, sorghum and cotton [9, 27].

commercial activities involving cattle and other livestock products.

In Zimbabwe, climate change also impacts heavily on livestock. Generally, evidence of climate adaptation in the agriculture sector is moving towards livestock production as a drought tolerant practice [10]. However, as shall be discussed in the next section, there are indications of limits to using livestock as a strategy to adapt to climate change that are pointed out by Tubiello et al. [28] and Chanza [10]. This is because the decline in plant productivity associated with arid environments will likely affect rangelands and feed. The direct impacts of changes in temperature and water scarcity on animals are expected to constrain adaptation efforts. Though not well documented and understood, the indirect effects are likely to be through increased pests and diseases of livestock and decline in pasture yield. The cattle population is estimated to be about 5.5 million. Instead of increasing by over 2% per annum, the national cattle herd has been facing climatic threats. For example, the drought experienced in 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 seasons is believed to have aggravated the foot and mouth disease. The disease rapidly spread as cattle moved wider in search of water and forage and was reported in six of the country's ten provinces [21]. This affected

**3.1 The agriculture sector**

**38**

The total amount of water available for the country is estimated to be about 20 million megaliters of freshwater [9]. It is critical to point out that the availability of this water is largely climatic [29]. Replenishment of the water is through rainfall leading to runoff into streams, rivers, dams and lakes. Some of it collects into vleis and surface depressions or ends up as ground water stores in the form of aquifers. The country has an estimated dam population of over 8000 [8]. Zimbabwe also has seven river catchment areas, namely Mazowe, Manyame, Save, Runde, Sanyati, Gwayi and Umzingwane. The sensitivity of these catchments to climate change varies with their location and with the type of land use practices in the catchments. The 2080 model predictions generally show a significant reduction in surface water resources. The areas to the north eastern and the eastern of Zimbabwe are projected to have a surplus in surface water. However, the western and southern parts of Zimbabwe, where Umzingwane, Runde, Gwayi and Save are located, are projected to experience significant decrease in runoff and desiccation of the catchments [9, 30].

Increased water scarcity associated with climate change can also be seen in depreciation in ground water levels. The common understanding is that water tables are becoming deeper. Where communities used to easily access water through shallow wells, they now need to dig deeper to tap up the water [10]. This is clear evidence that the groundwater is getting depleted owing to a drier climate. A report by the IPCC [31] confirms that rural communities relying on low-cost dug wells and boreholes are now exposed to serious water stress owing to interruptions in recharges resulting from drought.

## **3.3 The energy sector**

Climatic concerns in the energy sector are twofold. The sector is not only a driver of climate change due to GHG emissions, but is also affected by its impacts [32]. Given that the sector drives other socio-economic factors, such impacts need to be carefully examined. Currently, the country is not producing enough energy to meet demand and it covers the deficit through electricity imports. In rural areas, there are immense challenges facing attempts to extend the national grid. Energy deficits are high in the rural areas with an estimated 19% of the rural people only having access to reliable electricity. Without electricity, farmers cannot process their crops, add value or diversify their livelihoods thereby affecting agricultural productivity. In schools and homes, children struggle to study without light and are cut off from modern technology thus affecting education performance. Health institutions are also not spared from intermittent power cuts and this affect the national health delivery system [33].

Hydro-power contributes a significant proportion to the country's electricity generation. Recurrent drought in the past few years coupled with changing rainfall patterns within the southern African region have led to the decrease in water levels of major reservoirs [34]. A conspicuous impact of climate change affecting the energy sector has been isolated in the 2015/2016 season. The water levels in Zimbabwe's main lake, Lake Kariba, dropped to below 30%. This situation seriously affected power generation in the country. Similarly, in Kenya, droughts that occurred between 1999 and 2002 drastically affected hydro-power generation,

falling by 25% in 2000. The resultant cumulative loss in generation was variously estimated at between 1.0 and 1.5% of total GDP. These negative climate impacts have affected other sectors of freshwater distribution and food production [35].

Zimbabwe uses a mix of energy sources. These include fossil fuels (coal, coal bed methane and imported petroleum) and clean energy sources (hydropower, biofuel and solar). The sector faces challenges from rising population and economic demands. Climate change is also expected to exacerbate the energy supply situation. The energy sector constitutes about 49% share of total GHG emissions in CO2 equivalent [36]. However, as shall be discussed later, there are also opportunities created by climate change in the sector.

## **3.4 The health sector**

Evidence suggests that climate change will affect human health in various ways. Africa is already experiencing high burdens of health outcomes whose frequency, magnitude and spatial range is anticipated to grow [15]. These challenges, largely triggered by temperature and precipitation extremes, manifest in malnutrition, diarrheal diseases, and malaria and other vector-borne diseases. Climate change is also expected to exacerbate the human exposure to heat waves and direct exposure to ozone owing to elevation of ozone in the troposphere [37, 38]. There is a gender dimension to these problems, with evident disproportionate impacts on women, children and people living with disabilities [39, 40].

In Zimbabwe, observed health burdens of climate disturbances largely emanate from high frequencies and severity of floods, storms and droughts, including geographic spread of infectious disease vectors. The geographical range of malaria and other mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue; increases in the problem of diarrheal diseases, and of water-borne pathogens such as cholera and typhoid, are worrisome [22, 41]. Hartmann et al. [41], using sixteen climate change scenarios, reveal that the geographical distribution of malaria could change, with previously unsuitable areas becoming suitable for transmission as the ecology of vectors and pathogens is altered. Matawa and Murwira [42] also projected expansion in habitats of certain disease vectors owing to changes in temperature and rainfall in some parts of the country. There are also fears that disease epidemics in addition to other stressors such as food insecurity, chronic malnutrition, and HIV and AIDS are eroding the resilience of households, rendering them less resilient and more vulnerable to health problems. Although mainly attributed to water contamination, the recent outbreaks in cholera and typhoid could also be partly blamed on climate change. A case in point is the repeated outbreaks of cholera that recorded over 98,000 cases and more than 4000 deaths between August 2008 and June 2009 [43] and over 6500 cases and 31 deaths reported by 20 September 2018 [44]. The Cyclone Idai, which was downgraded to a tropical depression on the 16th of March 2019 caused high winds and heavy precipitation in Manicaland Province, riverine and flash flooding and subsequent deaths, destruction of livelihoods and properties, with Chimanimani and Chipinge districts being the most affected. The Ministry of Health and Child Care (MoHCC), with support from development partners, had to urgently move in to lead the health response, including preventing outbreaks of epidemic diseases such as cholera [45].
