**2.1 Knowing climate statistically**

*Global Warming and Climate Change*

may not see a new "normal" for a very long time.

**2. Climates, change, and changing climates**

istics upon which climates are defined and distinguished.

can meaningfully probe the dark future to fathom what we can expect from global warming. The meaning of the term "climate change" may have already been lost as it has been commonly subsumed into the mistaken belief that *Earth's* climate is shifting to a new normal; like one is turning the dial and increasing the heat under the pot on a stove, inferring that it is simply a matter of turning down the flame. We must systematically obliterate and reconstitute its meaning in public discourse, so that an accurate meaning of "climate" and the ramifications of "change" can be applied to our worlds. As people come to viscerally understand climate change and its consequences, the change can be more intelligently imagined in terms of every geo-, bio-, social, and economic system one might depend upon, as well as on every product upon which one relies. The term "climate change" is used by some to scare (or at least motivate) people into "pro-climate" action [8] (because it is a threat to our existence), even though climate is not actually a tangible "thing" at all. It can be used and then casually dismissed by signifying that it is only a childish fear of a bogeyman (it is just a figment of *your* imagination) and that climate change is not real. Some arrogantly express their lack fear (because our might and our intellect make it easy to manage). The reality is probably far beyond either end of that spectrum: the changes we experience will be more profound than we can imagine and it would be easy to "fix" if we were to do what is needed and accept the long period of time for the world to right itself. But we cannot simply stop our greenhouse gas production and expect a miraculous return to normal (as many have long tended to believe) [9]. Normal is gone. And all of Earth's human and nonhuman inhabitants

If one listens to or reads the media of journalists, commentators, and public servants (particularly politicians)—people from whom the public normally receives new information and upon which they (often) base their understanding of their lifeworld—it is evident that few of the messengers have accurate and clear grasps of the concept "climate," and yet they have a deep desire or feeling of responsibility to provide a clear explanation of climate to the public [10, 11]. The most egregious misapprehension of climate is that Earth has one (and only one). Our planet does not have "a climate." The climate is a conceptualization created to intellectually portray the combined conditions of temperature AND precipitation conditions of a region. Earth does have a "global" atmospheric temperature (this is how the globe's temperature can be said to be rising—global warming). But it is wrong to believe that there is a measure of global precipitation. In terms of water, Earth is a closed system. There is a fixed and finite amount of water on Earth and it circulates globally in all its forms (vapor, liquid water, and ice) constantly, we call this the hydrological cycle. Water changes state and spatial distribution continually because of seasons, atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns, weather events, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and thermal conditions. The Earth has MANY climates. The number depends upon the mathematical detail, sophistication, and character-

The term "climate" is often (mis)used interchangeably with weather, particularly when people are talking about their personal, empirical (past and present) experiences of the conditions of the atmosphere in which they live. Their fundamental mistake is that they believe that it (climate) is a phenomenon, is tangible, that it is something "real" that people can viscerally experience, and that it can be sensed and measured in real-time. Climate, in fact, is not real. It is knowable through either of two methods: statistical analysis or inductive inference.

**4**

Climates are usually defined statistically. Climate is a mental visualization, if you will, of atmospheric tendencies devised to explain the differences and similarities between (large and small) terrestrial (i.e., land) regions of the world. A climate-classification system allows one to categorize climates by averages and ranges of temperatures, available moisture, and weather phenomena over (*at least*) 30-year periods. The most meaningful climate-classification schemes are based on large datasets containing long records (again, at least three decades' worth) of weather data distributed over Earth's terrestrial surface (oceans do not have climates in our conceptualization). Daily thermal and precipitation records are used to characterize "normal" weather conditions (i.e., tendencies) at and near each weather station (which are proxies for larger zones in lieu of a dense array of instruments measuring the atmosphere). Climates are also characterized by means, extremes, and seasonal patterns distinguished as regular occurrences of major shifts, or of extreme conditions, like frosts or freezes, monsoons, and hydrological droughts that occur annually. Why were climates created? The most basic need was to discern the opportunities and challenges one might expect for day-to-day and long-term survival and comfort. Having and knowing climates establishes a basis upon which we can consider our life-prospects, particularly for planning future activities (getting water, growing or gathering food, keeping our bodies healthy and maintaining our comfort) in the context of weather and seasonal weather patterns.

## **2.2 Knowing climate through inference**

Climate statistics, however, do not magically reveal the implications of weather data. Even long ago, when Greeks talked about torrid, temperate, and frigid zones, they were reflecting on the prospects for or challenges of life in other regions of the world (naming parts as "summer-less," "intermediate," and "winterless" might predict opportunities and limitations for agriculture). Modern climates are much more sophisticated and more complicated, as is our need to know whether our more sophisticated and more complicated activities can be safely or profitably conducted in places around the world. In the absence of weather data upon which a classification schema can be based, scientists and nonscientists before them inferred climate conditions based on the empirical evidence on the ground, particularly on the vegetation, the least mobile occupant of any environment. The vegetation that grows anywhere can logically be regarded as the plants that have survived the conditions in that place. By observing the compositions of plant communities and considering each plant's characteristics (anatomy, physiology, and hardiness), one might inductively determine (using higher order, more sophisticated understanding of plant biology) the thermal and hydrological conditions that have prevailed in that place. Major ecosystem types are often associated with (and they even supply the names for) the spectral product of these variables: rainforest, tropical savanna, desert, steppe, and tundra are terms that are often used to identify "climates." So, it might not be difficult to understand how someone might believe that because plants are used to name climates and because plants are evident in the landscape, climate must be apparent … visible. We must be capable of perceiving climate right now.

The problem is, looks and logic can be deceiving. Some plants have features that may fit well in other places, in other ecosystems. Plants can be unnatural (due to invasion) in a place, perhaps promoted by natural and unnatural disturbances of landscapes. Some plants might have been introduced from other regions with markedly different climates. Transplants or invaders may be found outside of their normal zones, supported artificially for aesthetic purposes. Plants are not

always the best indicators of climate. For example, certain characteristics (thick, moisture-rich tissue) of so-called succulent plants are commonly thought to be drought- and heat-resistant features. These plants might be most often found in arid and hot regions like deserts or in places that experience periods of drought each year. Every continent, other than Antarctica, is home to succulent species. But not all succulents reside in arid regions or in places having annual dry seasons. For example, *Opuntia humifusa* (the eastern prickly pear cactus) is found in southeastern Ontario, Canada (near Lake Huron) in the remnants of the Carolinian forest (a region that is certainly not a desert, certainly not hot, and not an arid place). Similarly, "evergreen" (non-deciduous) plants are found from the tropics to the subarctic (notwithstanding that some lack cones which distinguish conifers from other evergreens). In fact, humans have modified landscapes to the point where hydrophilic plants can be grown abundantly in desert climates, assuming that sufficient irrigation is provided. Plants (by themselves) are not perfect indicators of climate.

## **2.3 Recognizing climates is best left to science and scientists**

Temperature and precipitation patterns and moisture and thermal regimes may, during any given week, month, year, or decade, depart from the norm and leave a false impression of a region's climate. Personal experience is not input into the process of climate classification. Only carefully and consistently collected data are used. One's personal observations about trends in weather (or climate) do not supersede (or even complement) scientific data because people are ill-equipped (eidetic memory or otherwise) to gather and analyze the factors upon which climates are based. Metrics of temperature and precipitation are significantly more precise, reliable, and consistent than personal observation. The data are also more durable. The data are likely to be different from place to place, and this creates patterns of difference across space. Some proximate places may have dramatically different, even contrasting, averages, extremes, and event frequencies. At some point at some distance from a weather station, the long-term conditions may be so different that they can reasonably said to be in different "climates." The variation of data gathered at set locations over time can be analyzed to tell us whether there has been change in local and regional climates.

Every location on Earth has a climate and locations are grouped into regions of similar conditions, ultimately yielding a global map of climate regions, which is a pastiche of similar and seemingly static conditions. It should be noted, however, that the limits of a climate are somewhat arbitrarily established (usually based on round numbers, like 20, 40, or 60 inches of precipitation, for instance). Periodically (perhaps each decade), the patterns of the local conditions can be reevaluated and the boundaries on the map of climate regions can be shifted to more accurately reflect the data for the most-recent 30-year period. This is usually done each decade (2020 is prompting a reconsideration of the map).

### **2.4 Knowing the agency of climate**

Very importantly, "climate" is believed to determine many aspects of localities' natural environments. Climates (it is truer to say very long-term—centuries, millennia—weather conditions) influence soil development: soils form very slowly and reflect the prevailing physical and chemical conditions that affect weathering of the parent material and availability of organic matter from decomposing vegetation. Climate, then, also influences the types and abundance of flora and fauna that shape soil development. Climate dictates long-term water supplies. Plants,

**7**

*Introductory Chapter: Climates, Change, and Climate Change*

information to the nature of the climates of the past.

substantial influence on regional conditions into the distant future.

As a verb, change can be either passive or active. It can refer to a one-time modification of one set condition to another setting. It is therefore passive, one and done (i.e*.,* there was a change, or something has changed). Or it can refer to an ongoing process (in a sense, an evolution), a process that has not stopped and may never stop. Changing or being "in flux" can complicate circumstances when stable conditions (like a climate) are expected and are relied on to plan for short- or

For instance, to be successful in producing massive yields per hectare, modern commercial agricultural activities may require heavy commitments for capital and services that are investments based on forecasts of future production. To grow a specific crop may require specific tools, equipment, pesticides, fertilizers, minimum volumes of water, and other inputs. The fiscal nature of farming necessitates financial planning to survive each year and to survive in the long run. When the circumstances (both intrinsic—environmental, social, personal conditions, et al.—and extrinsic—conditions of markets, competition, labor and supply costs, consumer demand, et al.) of farming change, reevaluation of the plans is necessary. How these changes are occurring and what the long-term picture for the array of conditions may evolve are important aspects of the information that industrial agricultural producers desire for their decisions to continue, to modify their plans, or to quit the activity because they can expect it to fail, before they end up in debt. What if we can no longer be confident about our (old) assumption that "next year" will be much like this year, weather-wise? The extrinsic context of farming, in this example, is the foundation of the activity in which farmers participate. Most of these intrinsic and extrinsic conditions are anthropogenic and can be manipulated by people, by businesses, by trade, or by government actions and policies. But the environment is different—many environmental conditions, like seasonal or annual weather conditions, particularly extremes and changes to the periodicities and durations of conditions (growing seasons and plant phenology, for instance), may become insurmountable if they are continuing to change, particularly if the changes are unexpected or unpredictable [12]. Decisions may need to be made quickly,

specifically trees, that live longer than the 30-year climate period also record the past's weather. They aid us in gaining an understanding of the distributions of past climates. Dendrological and palynological records provide additional pieces of

Over very long periods (tens of thousands to millions of years), climates (and therefore soils) also reflect the planet's context—solar activity, axial rotation, revolution around the sun, and global events like asteroid impacts, eruptions of super volcanoes, periods of continental glaciation, etc.—which may destroy our ecosystems and perhaps even eliminate species from Earth. Climates of the past are imprinted on the landscape and in the lithology of the planet. These sources offer more, very lengthy records of the conditions of the distant past. It is the millennialong records that enable us to compare past climates to contemporary climates to discern the radical modification of climates that is currently afoot. Climates are being wrenched from their old consistent conditions and the changes will have

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.92192*

**3. Change**

long-term futures.

**3.1 Implications of change**

particularly if crop production is diminishing [13].

## *Introductory Chapter: Climates, Change, and Climate Change DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.92192*

specifically trees, that live longer than the 30-year climate period also record the past's weather. They aid us in gaining an understanding of the distributions of past climates. Dendrological and palynological records provide additional pieces of information to the nature of the climates of the past.

Over very long periods (tens of thousands to millions of years), climates (and therefore soils) also reflect the planet's context—solar activity, axial rotation, revolution around the sun, and global events like asteroid impacts, eruptions of super volcanoes, periods of continental glaciation, etc.—which may destroy our ecosystems and perhaps even eliminate species from Earth. Climates of the past are imprinted on the landscape and in the lithology of the planet. These sources offer more, very lengthy records of the conditions of the distant past. It is the millennialong records that enable us to compare past climates to contemporary climates to discern the radical modification of climates that is currently afoot. Climates are being wrenched from their old consistent conditions and the changes will have substantial influence on regional conditions into the distant future.
