**3. The case of Greek coastal cities**

#### **3.1 Study area and data**

The research deals with these cities of the Greek territory (terrestrial and island), which present a population over 5.000 inhabitants, according to the official censuses held the decades 1961-2001. The threshold of the 5.000 inhabitants was selected arbitrarily (Polyzos et al., 2011), taking under consideration the Act 3643/2006 that regards the classification of Greek cities sizing. This Greek cities population filtering was applied sequentially, in every census' data (1961, 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001), so the available data may differ beyond decades. The cities that presented lower population volume than the threshold were truncated, even though they may were examined in a previous sampling set. This truncation procedure is expected to present, in some occasions, abrupt alternations, but also to reveal more obvious results. Regarding the selection criteria of the study object volume the amount of cities that surpass the population threshold of 5.000 inhabitants and, simultaneously, have direct contact with the sea or have an easy access to the sea were chosen to suggest the sample manifold.

#### **3.2 Population pressure**

One of the most significant factors that can elect considerable information for the spatial characteristics and dynamics of coastal cities in Greece is the demographic parameter. The population shifting and, in general, the demographic transformation, which are being observed diachronically, suggest an indicative variable of a place's developmental trends. Worldwide an amount of 70% of the world's population (percentage that suggests, in terms of absolute numbers, a population between 3.8 and 4.5 billion) are considered to live in the coastal zone (Cori, 1999; Li, 2003). The coastal zone is generally defined as a 40-mile wide belt from the coastline (Cori, 1999), but this definition varies and depends fromeach case's scale.

Moreover, it is estimated that up to the year 2015 there will be 36 mega-cities (with population over 10 million inhabitants), from which 30 will occur in the developing countries and 22 in Asia (Li, 2003). In global scale, Algeria and, especially, Greece suggest two characteristic cases of countries that appear considerable coastal density, where most main urban agglomerations are situated at (or near) the coast. In Mediterranean level, the coastal population presents double density than in the rest terrestrial areas. Nevertheless, the future estimations, for the coastal inhabitation of the Mediterranean countries, suggest that coastal population density will probably not grow much further in France, Italy and Greece.

The present study works with the decennial data of the period 1961-2001, which is available from the corresponding censuses. After applying the threshold filtering (criterion) to the

standard error of the difference. The one-sample T-test process was considered easier to apply than the corresponding ANOVA, which is also commonly used to compare sample means since the samples are compared in pairs. The constraint of the T-test method and the rest common linear ones assumes that the data is normally distributed, especially with respect to skewness. Consequently, outlying values should be carefully checked and the use

The research deals with these cities of the Greek territory (terrestrial and island), which present a population over 5.000 inhabitants, according to the official censuses held the decades 1961-2001. The threshold of the 5.000 inhabitants was selected arbitrarily (Polyzos et al., 2011), taking under consideration the Act 3643/2006 that regards the classification of Greek cities sizing. This Greek cities population filtering was applied sequentially, in every census' data (1961, 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001), so the available data may differ beyond decades. The cities that presented lower population volume than the threshold were truncated, even though they may were examined in a previous sampling set. This truncation procedure is expected to present, in some occasions, abrupt alternations, but also to reveal more obvious results. Regarding the selection criteria of the study object volume the amount of cities that surpass the population threshold of 5.000 inhabitants and, simultaneously, have direct contact with the sea or have an easy access to the sea were chosen to suggest the

One of the most significant factors that can elect considerable information for the spatial characteristics and dynamics of coastal cities in Greece is the demographic parameter. The population shifting and, in general, the demographic transformation, which are being observed diachronically, suggest an indicative variable of a place's developmental trends. Worldwide an amount of 70% of the world's population (percentage that suggests, in terms of absolute numbers, a population between 3.8 and 4.5 billion) are considered to live in the coastal zone (Cori, 1999; Li, 2003). The coastal zone is generally defined as a 40-mile wide belt from the coastline (Cori, 1999), but this definition varies and depends fromeach case's scale.

Moreover, it is estimated that up to the year 2015 there will be 36 mega-cities (with population over 10 million inhabitants), from which 30 will occur in the developing countries and 22 in Asia (Li, 2003). In global scale, Algeria and, especially, Greece suggest two characteristic cases of countries that appear considerable coastal density, where most main urban agglomerations are situated at (or near) the coast. In Mediterranean level, the coastal population presents double density than in the rest terrestrial areas. Nevertheless, the future estimations, for the coastal inhabitation of the Mediterranean countries, suggest that coastal population density will probably not grow much further in France, Italy and

The present study works with the decennial data of the period 1961-2001, which is available from the corresponding censuses. After applying the threshold filtering (criterion) to the

of boxplots is applied in order to manage these cases.

**3. The case of Greek coastal cities** 

**3.1 Study area and data** 

sample manifold.

Greece.

**3.2 Population pressure** 

coastal cities manifold, the available decennial sub-manifolds of the Greek coastal cities are presented as pie charts, for the corresponding coastal cities, to the map of figure 2. During the study period, the Greek urban population coverage changed 29,5%, from 56,21% in 1961 to 72,79% in 2001. This fact implies, firstly, the structural changes that the Greek economic model was subjected (the meanwhile period) to, which suggests the country's transposition from the agricultural-based economy model (primary sector) to the services provision economy model (tertiary sector).

Secondly, the meanwhile urban growth can be related to the phenomenon of agglomeration that benefited the two Hellenic metropolitan cities, "Athens" and "Thessaloniki", with respect to the trends observed in the wider Mediterranean level (Cori, 1999). The growing Greek coastal cities coverage of the total country's population in 1961 reaches a coverage of 16,42%, whereas in 2001 this percentage extended to 19,43%. The map of figure 2 also depicts the geographical distribution of the Greek coastal cities population growth. This map is considered useful in the level that it illustrates some geographical formations (or clusters) of this population growth. It seems worth telling that the greatest coastal concentrations in the Greek territory appear into places that do not present morphology of open (non-curved) coast lines, but in those which are attributed with physical protection. This fact comes to an agreement with the previous historical placement.

Fig. 2. Comparative pie charts of the coastal cities population distribution for the period 1961-2001.

Figure 3 maps the spatial locations of the Greek Geographical Mean Center (GMC) and the group of Weighted Mean Centers (WMC), which were calculated for the period 1961-2001. This map also depicts the geographical locations of the two Greek metropolitan cities

The Evolution and Spatial Dynamics of Coastal Cities in Greece 285

observed that the Greek coastal cities population presents a growing decennial procedure, almost under a linear attitude, but this growth seems to be inconsistent to the respective performance of the National population's evolution. This observation indicates, on one hand, the fact that the capital city of Athens benefited the majority of this period's (1961- 2001) population growth and, on the other hand, the fact that the Greek coastal inhabitation process stood indifferent to the eruptive urbanization phenomena of the period 1960-1980. It is probably remarkable to focus on the inverse performance of the population growth that is observed in the period of 1971 (figure 4). At that time, the National population increased, in opposition to the National population without Athens, which was decreased. This difference between National population and National population without Athens, indicates, obviously, that the provincial population shifted towards the metropolitan city of Athens, verifying the existing urbanization theories (Roberts, 1989; Ο' Sullivan, 2003; Sekovski et al., 2011). Nevertheless, the coastal population of this period, despite the fact that it does not suggest an immiscibly urban topology, has grown up, on a contrary to the current National provincial impoverishment. This systemic inconsistency reveals a latent population growth mechanism for coastal areas that presents an indifferent behavior to the National

Fig. 4. Comparative diagrams of National Greek and Coastal population, including and not

1981

Year

1991

2001

1971

A further quantitative approach of the population pressure of Greek coastal cities regards the study of the coastal population density performance. The concept of population density is a general measure that indicates the intense of inhabitance that a spatial unit presents. A common unit expression for this measure is given in inhabitants per square kilometer (inhabitants/km2) (Cori, 1999), but for the purpose of this study the measure is modified and used as coastal population density. The notion of coastal population density is defined, for the present study, as the percentage of the coastal city population to the total urban

urbanization trends, which were recorded the decades 1971-1981.

National Population

Population of coastal cities in Greece

National Population without Athens

Population of coastal cities in Greece without Athens

including the case of Athens.

1961

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

Population

8000000

10000000

12000000

"Athens" and "Thessaloniki". The comparison of the locations between GMC and the group of WMC (GWMC) can acquire demographic interpretation, since the only difference between the two respective mathematical formulas calculations regards the consideration of the weights. In other words, the consideration of the population weights in the GMC formula turns the second into the WMC and the spatial distance of GMC and WMC suggests a macroscopic transformation (shifting), ought to the demographic parameter. This shifting is expected to reveal the demographic spatial trends of the Greek coastal cities for the period 1961-2001.

The horizontal shifting of the GMC to the GWMC to the East side can get two justifications. Firstly, the fact that the Eastern seaside forehead of Greece is greater than the Western suggests a geographic inequality, which is reasonably illustrated by the attraction of the GWMC to the East. Secondly, this horizontal shifting seems to follow the direction of the location of Athens that presents the greatest urban formation in Greece, having population over 5.000.000 inhabitants. The vertical shifting of the GMC to the GWMC reveals the tractive behaviour of "Athens" to the GWMC. Nevertheless the vertical shifting is considered shorter in length than the horizontal, ought to the fact that the anti-diametric location of the second greater, in population ranking, Greek city, "Thessaloniki", plays a makeweight role to this spatial attraction.

Fig. 3. Map displaying the locations of the Greek Geographical Mean Center (GMC) and the group of Weighted Mean Centers (WMC), for the period 1961-2001.

Moreover, the existent data can be further edited so as to form the diagrams of figure 4, which present the National Greek and Coastal population, after applying a summation to the population data of decennial samples (populations of cities that overpass the threshold criterion). These diagrams illustrate the decennial population growth distributions, calculated under the basis of considering (or not) the case of Athens. In both cases, it can be

"Athens" and "Thessaloniki". The comparison of the locations between GMC and the group of WMC (GWMC) can acquire demographic interpretation, since the only difference between the two respective mathematical formulas calculations regards the consideration of the weights. In other words, the consideration of the population weights in the GMC formula turns the second into the WMC and the spatial distance of GMC and WMC suggests a macroscopic transformation (shifting), ought to the demographic parameter. This shifting is expected to reveal the demographic spatial trends of the Greek coastal cities for

The horizontal shifting of the GMC to the GWMC to the East side can get two justifications. Firstly, the fact that the Eastern seaside forehead of Greece is greater than the Western suggests a geographic inequality, which is reasonably illustrated by the attraction of the GWMC to the East. Secondly, this horizontal shifting seems to follow the direction of the location of Athens that presents the greatest urban formation in Greece, having population over 5.000.000 inhabitants. The vertical shifting of the GMC to the GWMC reveals the tractive behaviour of "Athens" to the GWMC. Nevertheless the vertical shifting is considered shorter in length than the horizontal, ought to the fact that the anti-diametric location of the second greater, in population ranking, Greek city, "Thessaloniki", plays a

Fig. 3. Map displaying the locations of the Greek Geographical Mean Center (GMC) and the

Moreover, the existent data can be further edited so as to form the diagrams of figure 4, which present the National Greek and Coastal population, after applying a summation to the population data of decennial samples (populations of cities that overpass the threshold criterion). These diagrams illustrate the decennial population growth distributions, calculated under the basis of considering (or not) the case of Athens. In both cases, it can be

group of Weighted Mean Centers (WMC), for the period 1961-2001.

the period 1961-2001.

makeweight role to this spatial attraction.

observed that the Greek coastal cities population presents a growing decennial procedure, almost under a linear attitude, but this growth seems to be inconsistent to the respective performance of the National population's evolution. This observation indicates, on one hand, the fact that the capital city of Athens benefited the majority of this period's (1961- 2001) population growth and, on the other hand, the fact that the Greek coastal inhabitation process stood indifferent to the eruptive urbanization phenomena of the period 1960-1980.

It is probably remarkable to focus on the inverse performance of the population growth that is observed in the period of 1971 (figure 4). At that time, the National population increased, in opposition to the National population without Athens, which was decreased. This difference between National population and National population without Athens, indicates, obviously, that the provincial population shifted towards the metropolitan city of Athens, verifying the existing urbanization theories (Roberts, 1989; Ο' Sullivan, 2003; Sekovski et al., 2011). Nevertheless, the coastal population of this period, despite the fact that it does not suggest an immiscibly urban topology, has grown up, on a contrary to the current National provincial impoverishment. This systemic inconsistency reveals a latent population growth mechanism for coastal areas that presents an indifferent behavior to the National urbanization trends, which were recorded the decades 1971-1981.

Fig. 4. Comparative diagrams of National Greek and Coastal population, including and not including the case of Athens.

A further quantitative approach of the population pressure of Greek coastal cities regards the study of the coastal population density performance. The concept of population density is a general measure that indicates the intense of inhabitance that a spatial unit presents. A common unit expression for this measure is given in inhabitants per square kilometer (inhabitants/km2) (Cori, 1999), but for the purpose of this study the measure is modified and used as coastal population density. The notion of coastal population density is defined, for the present study, as the percentage of the coastal city population to the total urban

The Evolution and Spatial Dynamics of Coastal Cities in Greece 287

islands and are the prefectures of "Xania" (island/Crete Region), "Rethymno" (island/Crete Region), "Preveza" (non island/West Greece), "Messinia" (non island/Peloponnesus), "Leukada" (island/Ionian islands), "Lesvos" (island/East Aegean), "Lasithi" (island/Crete Region), "Kuklades" (island/Central Aegean), "Korinthia" (non island/Peloponnesus), "Kefallinia" (island/Ionian Islands), "Kerkura" (island/Ionian Islands), "Kavala" (non island/Northern East Greece), "Irakleio" (island/Crete Region), "Zakinthos" (island/Ionian Islands), "Euvoiaa" (island/Central Greece), "Dodekanisos" (island/East Aegean) and

The calculated results of the figure 5 can form a map, so as to demonstrate the spatial (geographical) distribution of the corresponding coastal population densities. Such a map is presented at figure 6. The measuring subject in this map regards the mean coastal population density that the Greek prefectures presented, during the period 1961-2001. The prefectures that are exclusively terrestrial and do not present a coastal part are excluded

"Achaia" (non island/Peloponnesus).

Fig. 6. Mean Population density of coastal prefectures in Greece

The spatial distribution of the mean coastal population density in Greece (per prefecture) depicts a further status of population growth clusters, which can probably reveal some developmental cores for the country. As it can be observed from the map, diachronically (referring to the period 1961-2001) the most dense, in population, coastal prefectures in

from the map illustration.

population by the ratio *<sup>i</sup> i i CP CPD TP* , where *CPi* is the coastal population of prefecture *i* and

*TPi* is the total urban population of prefecture *i*, regarding the amount of cities that surpass the population threshold of 5.000 inhabitants.

The calculation process of the CPD for each Greek coastal prefecture and for every decennial data produces the bar plots of figure 5, which indicate the prefectures that experienced the greatest coastal population density at the period 1961-2001. The bar plot of figure 5 is composed by five components, in respect to the decennial coastal data. This component division leads to the classification (for the data period) of the coastal cities densities into five corresponding ordinal categories, from 1 up to 5 (minimum to maximum significance). The 5th category (describes densities into the interval 4-5) includes the prefectures that present very dense coastal inhabitation and, consequently, the fundamental developmental parameter for them seems to be exclusively the coastal attribute. Such prefectures are mainly

Fig. 5. Bar plots for the decennial coastal population density in Greece.

*TPi* is the total urban population of prefecture *i*, regarding the amount of cities that surpass

The calculation process of the CPD for each Greek coastal prefecture and for every decennial data produces the bar plots of figure 5, which indicate the prefectures that experienced the greatest coastal population density at the period 1961-2001. The bar plot of figure 5 is composed by five components, in respect to the decennial coastal data. This component division leads to the classification (for the data period) of the coastal cities densities into five corresponding ordinal categories, from 1 up to 5 (minimum to maximum significance). The 5th category (describes densities into the interval 4-5) includes the prefectures that present very dense coastal inhabitation and, consequently, the fundamental developmental parameter for them seems to be exclusively the coastal attribute. Such prefectures are mainly

*TP* , where *CPi* is the coastal population of prefecture *i* and

population by the ratio *<sup>i</sup>*

*i*

the population threshold of 5.000 inhabitants.

*CP CPD*

*i*

Fig. 5. Bar plots for the decennial coastal population density in Greece.

islands and are the prefectures of "Xania" (island/Crete Region), "Rethymno" (island/Crete Region), "Preveza" (non island/West Greece), "Messinia" (non island/Peloponnesus), "Leukada" (island/Ionian islands), "Lesvos" (island/East Aegean), "Lasithi" (island/Crete Region), "Kuklades" (island/Central Aegean), "Korinthia" (non island/Peloponnesus), "Kefallinia" (island/Ionian Islands), "Kerkura" (island/Ionian Islands), "Kavala" (non island/Northern East Greece), "Irakleio" (island/Crete Region), "Zakinthos" (island/Ionian Islands), "Euvoiaa" (island/Central Greece), "Dodekanisos" (island/East Aegean) and "Achaia" (non island/Peloponnesus).

The calculated results of the figure 5 can form a map, so as to demonstrate the spatial (geographical) distribution of the corresponding coastal population densities. Such a map is presented at figure 6. The measuring subject in this map regards the mean coastal population density that the Greek prefectures presented, during the period 1961-2001. The prefectures that are exclusively terrestrial and do not present a coastal part are excluded from the map illustration.

Fig. 6. Mean Population density of coastal prefectures in Greece

The spatial distribution of the mean coastal population density in Greece (per prefecture) depicts a further status of population growth clusters, which can probably reveal some developmental cores for the country. As it can be observed from the map, diachronically (referring to the period 1961-2001) the most dense, in population, coastal prefectures in

The Evolution and Spatial Dynamics of Coastal Cities in Greece 289

agricultural and mineral based economy), at the region of "Dodekanisa" (touristic, sailing, agricultural and cultural heritage economy) and at the region of Crete (agricultural,

A further analysis on the population pressure can be applied with the use of the Theil index. The calculation of the Theil index provides results that reveal the cities, which presented the

Figure 7 illustrates these cities, which throughout the study period (1961-2001) presented the most abrupt changes in their population. This map reveals the strong fluctuations (positive in the majority as presented earlier) of the city clusters of "Athens" and "Thessaloniki" that are characterized of the most intense meanwhile conurbations. A second cluster of cities of medium to notable variations is comprised of the cities of the province, the most significant of which are located in the prefectures of the region of Crete, in the islands of Southern Aegean and the Northern East Greece. Finally, a third cluster of cities of the terrestrial central body of Greece is formed (the so called developmental axis "S"), where the capital cities of the respective prefectures present relatively abrupt changes of their population sizes

Tourism suggests a fundamental developmental axis for Greece, ought to its elongated coastline, which is greater than 10.000km (Cori, 1999), to its sunshine weather and to its thousands of islands that have various morphologies. The seaside location of Greek coastal cities provides intuitive documentation for the economic base of these cities, indicating that both these cities and their respective prefectures present specialization in touristic activities and services. The purpose of this section aspires to request quantitative evidence that justifies this empirical approach and to proceed to a further analysis on the productivity orientation of the Greek coastal cities. The available data regard the calculation results of the Local Qualification Index of the Greek prefectures, referring to the economic sectors of agricultural, manufacture, construction and touristic productivity for the year 2006 (Polyzos, 2011), can produce the box plots of figure 8. The data is further categorized, for the purpose of this study, to non coastal and coastal groups so as to produce box plots that can be

The box plot diagrams of figure 9 sketches out the distributions of the LQ index (per sector) for the coastal and non coastal cases. The Agriculture box plots indicate a slightly better (presenting higher values) performance of the Greek terrestrial prefectures, in comparison with the coastal. This performance seems reasonable if considering the terrestrial ease in transportation, maintenance, and support, regarding the agricultural equipment. The question of the significance of difference over the performance between coastal and non

The Manufacture box plots reveal a relationship between the coastal and non coastal prefectures that is not easy to come into obvious conclusions. Perhaps the only safe information, which can be derived from this diagram, derives from the observation that the non coastal box plot presents a more narrow distribution than the coastal and less number of outlier values. This higher concentration of the non coastal manufacture distribution displays a better overall performance for the non costal case, but this

coastal prefectures will be answered at the following T-tests.

greatest variations in their chronological evolution, as shown in figure 7.

touristic, sailing and cultural heritage economy).

(Polyzos et al., 2011).

submitted to comparison.

**3.3 Local qualification pressure** 

Greece appear to lie under a grouped structure that is distributed to all geographical directions. At the West Greece this cluster forms an arc that includes the "Ionian" islands and the prefecture of "Preveza". One of the fundamental economic axes that can justify these prefectures dense population is probably the maritime commercial and transportation activities of these prefectures, in conjunction with the fact that their geographical position provides an easy access to Italy.

In the Region of Peloponnesus, the dense coastal prefectures cluster forms two cores. The first is located at the prefecture of "Messinia" and the other figures a dipole of the prefectures "Achaia-Korinthia". The prefecture of "Messinia" always presented a strong agricultural economy and, considering the fact that this place lacks of a significant commercial harbour, it can be assumed that probably the intense coastal inhabitation of this prefecture has rural motivations and trends, ought to environmental amenities of such areas. The dipole "Achaia-Korinthia" probably oughts its density to its component prefectures strategic significance in transportations. The prefecture of "Achaia" has a great (for the Greek state) harbour and the one of "Korinthia" suggests a connection (the only before the year 2005) or the region of Peloponnesus with the prefecture of "Athens" and the rest terrestrial Greece.

Fig. 7. Spatial distribution of the coastal cities Theil index for the period 1961-2001.

The rest clusters are located in the Northern Greece at the prefecture of Kavala (with considerable mineral wealth), in the central Greece at the prefecture of Evoia (closeness to Athens) and in the Aegean at the prefectures of "Lesvos" (sailing and agricultural based economy, as also closeness to Turkey), at the region of "Kyklades" (touristic, sailing,

Greece appear to lie under a grouped structure that is distributed to all geographical directions. At the West Greece this cluster forms an arc that includes the "Ionian" islands and the prefecture of "Preveza". One of the fundamental economic axes that can justify these prefectures dense population is probably the maritime commercial and transportation activities of these prefectures, in conjunction with the fact that their geographical position

In the Region of Peloponnesus, the dense coastal prefectures cluster forms two cores. The first is located at the prefecture of "Messinia" and the other figures a dipole of the prefectures "Achaia-Korinthia". The prefecture of "Messinia" always presented a strong agricultural economy and, considering the fact that this place lacks of a significant commercial harbour, it can be assumed that probably the intense coastal inhabitation of this prefecture has rural motivations and trends, ought to environmental amenities of such areas. The dipole "Achaia-Korinthia" probably oughts its density to its component prefectures strategic significance in transportations. The prefecture of "Achaia" has a great (for the Greek state) harbour and the one of "Korinthia" suggests a connection (the only before the year 2005) or the region of Peloponnesus with the prefecture of "Athens" and the

Fig. 7. Spatial distribution of the coastal cities Theil index for the period 1961-2001.

The rest clusters are located in the Northern Greece at the prefecture of Kavala (with considerable mineral wealth), in the central Greece at the prefecture of Evoia (closeness to Athens) and in the Aegean at the prefectures of "Lesvos" (sailing and agricultural based economy, as also closeness to Turkey), at the region of "Kyklades" (touristic, sailing,

provides an easy access to Italy.

rest terrestrial Greece.

agricultural and mineral based economy), at the region of "Dodekanisa" (touristic, sailing, agricultural and cultural heritage economy) and at the region of Crete (agricultural, touristic, sailing and cultural heritage economy).

A further analysis on the population pressure can be applied with the use of the Theil index. The calculation of the Theil index provides results that reveal the cities, which presented the greatest variations in their chronological evolution, as shown in figure 7.

Figure 7 illustrates these cities, which throughout the study period (1961-2001) presented the most abrupt changes in their population. This map reveals the strong fluctuations (positive in the majority as presented earlier) of the city clusters of "Athens" and "Thessaloniki" that are characterized of the most intense meanwhile conurbations. A second cluster of cities of medium to notable variations is comprised of the cities of the province, the most significant of which are located in the prefectures of the region of Crete, in the islands of Southern Aegean and the Northern East Greece. Finally, a third cluster of cities of the terrestrial central body of Greece is formed (the so called developmental axis "S"), where the capital cities of the respective prefectures present relatively abrupt changes of their population sizes (Polyzos et al., 2011).
