**2. Turkey's energy challenges and renewable energy**

Turkey is 17th largest economy of the World. Although its energy use is comparatively low, the Country with rapidly growing economy is one of the fastest growing energy markets in the World. Primary Energy Demand is rapidly increasing, as can be seen from Figure 1. The Country will likely see the fastest medium-to-long term growth in energy demand among the IEA member countries. (IEA, 2009).

Turkey's total final energy consumption of energy was 74 Mtoe in 2008 up by %86 from 1990. Following its economic growth, energy use in Turkey is expected to roughly double over the next decade, and electricity demand is likely to increase even faster. This implies the needs for large energy investments but also measures for ensuring energy security, especially in electricity sector (IEA, 2009).

Fig. 1. Evolution of Turkey's Primary Energy Demand and Import Dependence (OME,2008).

Although Turkey is poor in hydrocarbons, its primary energy consumption is mainly based on fossil fuels as seen from Figure 2*.* Except hydro, renewable resources have been almost untouched up to recently. Under this circumstance**,** rapidly increasing energy consumption implies rapidly increasing import dependence, as seen also from Figure 1 including for practically all oil and natural gas and most coal. More than about 70% of the total primary energy consumption in the country is met by imports. It is heavily dependent on foreign fossil fuels and this dependency is one of the most important issue threatening its energy supply security and economy.

Fig. 2. Primary Energy Consumption of Turkey by Sources ( MENR).

Concerns for ensuring sufficient energy supply for growing economy, therefore, dominates in determining energy policies. Hence energy security has a more central place in the energy policy goals in comparison with market reform and environmental protection. This fact may retard the diffusion of the new paradigm in the Country. Likewise, Turkey follows a deliberate policy for new renewables.

the needs for large energy investments but also measures for ensuring energy security,

Fig. 1. Evolution of Turkey's Primary Energy Demand and Import Dependence (OME,2008). Although Turkey is poor in hydrocarbons, its primary energy consumption is mainly based on fossil fuels as seen from Figure 2*.* Except hydro, renewable resources have been almost untouched up to recently. Under this circumstance**,** rapidly increasing energy consumption implies rapidly increasing import dependence, as seen also from Figure 1 including for practically all oil and natural gas and most coal. More than about 70% of the total primary energy consumption in the country is met by imports. It is heavily dependent on foreign fossil fuels and this dependency is one of the most important issue threatening its energy

Primary Energy Consumption of Turkey

Concerns for ensuring sufficient energy supply for growing economy, therefore, dominates in determining energy policies. Hence energy security has a more central place in the energy policy goals in comparison with market reform and environmental protection. This fact may retard the diffusion of the new paradigm in the Country. Likewise, Turkey follows a

4% 3.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6%

especially in electricity sector (IEA, 2009).

supply security and economy.

deliberate policy for new renewables.

31.4% 29.5% 29.1%

Fig. 2. Primary Energy Consumption of Turkey by Sources ( MENR).

Another challenge rising from largely reliance on fossil fuels is rapidly increasing greenhouse gases emission. Although Turkey have less greenhouse gas emission per Capita than both OECD Countries and transition countries, it has a high rate of increase in emissions since 1990. Energy-related CO2 emission has rapidly increased over last decade also, as illustrated in Figure 3. It is likely to continue to increase fast over the medium and long term, in parallel with significant growth in energy demand (IEA, 2009). This is a another growing concern in the Country.

Turkey has been a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on climate Change (UNFCCC) since 2004 and to the Kyoto Protocol since 2009. Signing the Kyoto Protocol does not put an additional burden on Turkey until 2012. However, Turkey has undertaken the responsibility of passing the necessary legislation to lay the infrastructure for fighting climate change after 2012. The major issue for the Country is how to contribute to reducing the on global emission without jeopardizing its economic and social development prospects**.**

Its high energy intensity is another challenge for Turkey. The change in the primary energy density throughout the periods from 1980 to 2005 and from 2000 to 2008 are illustrated in Figure 4(a) and 4(b). In spite of improvement efforts, energy intensity remains high although an improving trend is observed currently.

Fig. 3. The CO2 Emission from Electricity Production (2000-2007) (MENR,2010).

Fig. 4. Evolution of energy density a) between 1975- 2005 (TOE/ \$ 1000(Çalkoğlu,2007) b) between 2000-2008 (kg equivalent oil/\$ 1,000) (MENR,2010)..

As seen from above graphs, it has become near stagnant, after a few decades of rapid increase. High energy intensity is a major obstacle in reducing emissions. But still, Turkey's energy intensity is significantly higher as compared to the other OECD and IEA Countries As seen from Figure 5 (Çalkoğlu, 2007). That is, Turkey cannot use its energy efficiently.

Fig. 5. Energy intensity of Turkey with respect to the other Countries (Çalkoğlu,2007)

(a)

(b) Fig. 4. Evolution of energy density a) between 1975- 2005 (TOE/ \$ 1000(Çalkoğlu,2007)

As seen from above graphs, it has become near stagnant, after a few decades of rapid increase. High energy intensity is a major obstacle in reducing emissions. But still, Turkey's energy intensity is significantly higher as compared to the other OECD and IEA Countries As seen from Figure 5 (Çalkoğlu, 2007). That is, Turkey cannot use its energy efficiently.

Fig. 5. Energy intensity of Turkey with respect to the other Countries (Çalkoğlu,2007)

b) between 2000-2008 (kg equivalent oil/\$ 1,000) (MENR,2010)..

Total share of renewable in TPES has declined depending on, mainly, decreasing biomass use and the growing role of natural gas in the system. It was estimated that the share of renewable energy will decrease to % 9 of TPES in 2020 (IEA, 2005).

As seen from Figure 6, the share of installed renewable capacity in total installed capacity dramatically decreased in the last decade.

Fig. 6. The Share of the installed capacity of the renewable energy resources including large hydro, within the total installed capacity (%) (MENR, 2010}.

Although the absolute value of renewable energy use grows, since it doesn't grow at the same proportion with energy consumption, the share of fossil fuels continues to increase (Saygn & Çetin, 2010). This fact can also be seen from Figures 7-8 illustrating Turkey's primary energy supply and electricity generation by fuels.

Fig. 7. Turkey's total energy supply by fuel in the period 1972-2008 (IEA, 2009).

Fig. 8. Evolution of Turkey's electricity generation by fuels (IEA, 2009).

Environmental and energy security risks are therefore more and more increasing for the Country. The energy situation of Turkey is characterized by high rate of import dependence, high energy intensity, rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions. This situation is evidently unsustainable and in conflict with the contemporary global trends. Turkey is faced with serious environmental and energy security challenges presently. Additionally, it needs for high amounts of financial resources for energy investment to meet growing energy demand. Limitations within the scope of harmonization with the EU cause the cost of energy investments to rise and complicate the situation further*.* All of these are matters of concern for decision makers of the Country (Saygn & Çetin, 2010).

It is clear that, the existing renewable energy potential should be realized in a reasonable time period. To realize renewable potential, Turkey has taken some steps in the right direction. Although it has been made important progress with regard to renewable energy, energy efficiency and market liberalization regulations in the recent years; new paradigm is slowly diffusing into Turkey's energy policies and the regulations due to strong concerns related with energy supply security[(Saygn & Çetin, 2010).
