**4. Discussion**

Our results verify the known distribution of the minor snake-eyed skink (*A. grayanus*) and Asian snake-eyed skink (*A. pannonicus*) based on current

**71**

**Figure 3.**

*Modeling the Past and Current Distribution and Habitat Suitability for Two Snake-eyed Skinks...*

climatic conditions. The eastern regions of the Iranian Plateau, part of the areas of Afghanistan, northwest India, and Pakistan had the highest suitability for *A. grayanus*, during three time periods (current, MH, LIG). In the eastern Iranian Plateau, *A. grayanus* occurs in the natural parks (e.g., Khobar National Park and the area of the Presidential Museum in Rafsanjan, Kerman Province) and palm graves (Sistan and Baluchestan Province). Recorded from Pakistan at oases, grasslands, backyard gardens, grass fields in the Indus riparian system by Khan [41, 42]. Vyas [28] mentioned three localities (Wagger village of Kutch district, Gujarat; Mount Abu of Sirohi district, Rajasthan; Jessore Wildlife Sanctuary, Gujarat) from India for the species. Model ranges of current distribution predicted areas of western Afghanistan that had conditions suitable as for the same regions mentioned in Pakistan. The model predicted the presence of *A. grayanus* in the United Arab

Emirates and Oman but recorded by Gardner [43] as *A. pannonicus*.

*Habitat of Ablepharus pannonicus in Kermanshah, Ilam Provinces, western Iran (A, B), Khuzestan (C), and Fars (D) Provinces, southwestern Iran. The specimens were collected under a relatively small plate stone or under the dead oak leaves, grassland, or steppes. (E, F) Habitat of Ablepharus grayanus in southeastern Iran.* 

*The specimens were found under the dead palm leaves and grassland in parks.*

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.82476*

*Modeling the Past and Current Distribution and Habitat Suitability for Two Snake-eyed Skinks... DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.82476*

climatic conditions. The eastern regions of the Iranian Plateau, part of the areas of Afghanistan, northwest India, and Pakistan had the highest suitability for *A. grayanus*, during three time periods (current, MH, LIG). In the eastern Iranian Plateau, *A. grayanus* occurs in the natural parks (e.g., Khobar National Park and the area of the Presidential Museum in Rafsanjan, Kerman Province) and palm graves (Sistan and Baluchestan Province). Recorded from Pakistan at oases, grasslands, backyard gardens, grass fields in the Indus riparian system by Khan [41, 42]. Vyas [28] mentioned three localities (Wagger village of Kutch district, Gujarat; Mount Abu of Sirohi district, Rajasthan; Jessore Wildlife Sanctuary, Gujarat) from India for the species. Model ranges of current distribution predicted areas of western Afghanistan that had conditions suitable as for the same regions mentioned in Pakistan. The model predicted the presence of *A. grayanus* in the United Arab Emirates and Oman but recorded by Gardner [43] as *A. pannonicus*.

#### **Figure 3.**

*Habitats of the World - Biodiversity and Threats*

that were more suitable areas than present in southwestern Asia today (**Figure 1**). The model for *A. pannonicus* predicted the occurrence of range of the species in steppe areas, grassy, rocky hills separated by oak forest of the Zagros Mountains in the west, and palm groves in southwestern Iran. In addition to the mentioned habitat, the distribution range model of the species predicted that *A. pannonicus* occurs in Iraq, Kuwait, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and suitable potential northeast in Syria, Turkey, Kazakhstan, and patchwork areas of northern India. The simulated MH distribution range model for *A. pannonicus* had continuous restriction in east Syria, throughout Iraq, and north Saudi Arabia toward southeastern Turkmenistan. Also, simulated suitable potential fragmented areas of north India and central China were demonstrated. The LIG simulated distribution ranges were the same as the MH suitable potential habitat (**Figure 2**).

*Distribution map of Ablepharus pannonicus in southwestern Asia and much of their potential distribution pattern in the region during: (A) current period (1950–2000); (B) the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago (6 ka); and (C) the last interglacial, 120,000 years ago (120 ka). The four colored squares on the bottom left indicate the result of stochastic prediction of present species. The black circles refer to the collected specimens.*

Our results verify the known distribution of the minor snake-eyed skink (*A. grayanus*) and Asian snake-eyed skink (*A. pannonicus*) based on current

**70**

**4. Discussion**

**Figure 2.**

*Habitat of Ablepharus pannonicus in Kermanshah, Ilam Provinces, western Iran (A, B), Khuzestan (C), and Fars (D) Provinces, southwestern Iran. The specimens were collected under a relatively small plate stone or under the dead oak leaves, grassland, or steppes. (E, F) Habitat of Ablepharus grayanus in southeastern Iran. The specimens were found under the dead palm leaves and grassland in parks.*

The suitable habitats for *A. pannonicus* were in Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia (Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan). In Iran, *A. pannonicus* was present in the majority of habitat types [30] except deserts, showing the effect of barriers on dispersion of the terrestrial species. This lizard inhabited palm groves (Abadan and Mahshahr), Karoon River shore region, and Darvishab River Park of Khuzestan Province, southwestern Iran (**Figure 3**). It was absent in the steppes of northwestern Iran, probably, due to competition with *A. bivittatus*. Therefore, *A. grayanus* and *A. pannonicus* prefer different climatic conditions across the Middle East and Central Asia. In addition, our results showed that the distributions of these species are restricted by different climatic conditions.

The occurrence and the presence of *A. grayanus* are more influenced by precipitation of the driest quarter of the year (24%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter of the year (23.3%), and precipitation of the driest month (18.45%). Therefore, it is more likely to be found in hot regions under the influence of the rainy monsoon. The prevalence of *A. pannonicus* is more impacted by temperature seasonality (27%), slope (19.2%), and mean temperature of the wettest quarter of the year (18.5%). Due to relationship between temperature and humidity, we claim that seasonal temperatures, especially during the spring, are the most effective factors for suitable habitat.

The models simulated at the MH distribution of *A. grayanus* were highly influenced by precipitation of the driest quarter of the year (59.7%), isothermality (22.8), and mean temperature of the driest quarter of the year (15.3) which resulted from both African and Asian rainy monsoons. Those established damp environments and stable habitats for *A. grayanus*. Another species was highly (79.6%) dependent on temperature (isothermality, temperature seasonality, mean temperature of the wettest quarter of the year, and temperature annual range) that indicated the importance of temperature in range extension for *A. pannonicus*. The models simulated at the LIG distribution of *A. grayanus* was influenced by precipitation of the driest month and the driest quarter of the year (72.7%). *A. pannonicus* (89.2%) was dependent on temperature.

From the last simulation models (6 and 120 thousand years ago), it is clear that in those times wider distribution ranges and areas that are now part of unsuitable habitat, at that time, due to better climatic and environmental conditions influenced by monsoon rainfall, would have been a favorable habitat. Finally, study of the effective bioclimatic variables in a species' distribution over time provides heuristic methods for the management of important habitat by conservation assessments of current habitats and identification of habitat suitability. According to results obtained based on this study, the minor snake-eyed skink, *A. grayanus*, and the Asian snake-eyed skink, *A. pannonicus*, are good indicators for assessing the effects of climatic changes on distribution range of the species over time and for understanding biodiversity patterns in Asia.

### **5. Conclusion**

It is expected that lizards inhabiting open habitats are more susceptible to a predator attack than those inhabiting forest habitats [44], since bushy habitat may provide suitable refuges for lizards. The Asian snake-eyed skink, *Ablepharus pannonicus* (Fitzinger, 1823), was found in the Zagros Mountains among sparse annual grasses, near thorny bushes, natural parks, and under the dead oak leaves. The minor snake-eyed skink *Ablepharus grayanus* (Stoliczka, 1872) lives in palm groves and near rivers in southeastern Iran.

**73**

**Table A1.**

*Modeling the Past and Current Distribution and Habitat Suitability for Two Snake-eyed Skinks...*

According to results obtained based on this study, the minor snake-eyed skink, *A. grayanus*, and the Asian snake-eyed skink, *A. pannonicus*, are good indicators for assessing the effects of climatic changes on distribution range of the species over

We are grateful to Steven C. Anderson for checking, editing, and improving the manuscript. We thank Hassan Salehi, Mousa Mahmoodi, Hurmuz Nematzadeh, Ali Gholamifard, Sabzali Rasouli, Hiwa Faizi, Mohsen Takesh, Ehsan Damadi, Morteza Akbarpour, and Seyyed Saeed Hosseinian Yousefkhani for assisting us with fieldwork in Iran. Also we are grateful to Razi University (Kermanshah, Iran) authorities

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.82476*

**Acknowledgements**

**A.Appendix**

**Characters Definition** Altitude Altitude

BIO1 Annual mean temperature

BIO12 Annual precipitation

Slope Slope

BIO13 Precipitation of the wettest month BIO14 Precipitation of the driest month

BIO3 Isothermality [(BIO2/BIO7) × 100]

BIO2 Mean diurnal range [mean of monthly (max temp–min temp)]

BIO4 Temperature seasonality (standard deviation × 100) BIO5 Maximum temperature of the warmest month BIO6 Minimum temperature of the coldest month BIO7 Temperature annual range (BIO5–BIO6)

BIO8 Mean temperature of the wettest quarter of the year BIO9 Mean temperature of the driest quarter of the year BIO10 Mean temperature of the warmest quarter of the year BIO11 Mean temperature of the coldest quarter of the year

BIO15 Precipitation seasonality (standard deviation / mean)

BIO16 Precipitation of the wettest quarter of the year BIO17 Precipitation of the driest quarter of the year BIO18 Precipitation of the warmest quarter of the year BIO19 Precipitation of the coldest quarter of the year

*Climatic variables used to elaborate the models (www.worldclim.org).*

time and for understanding biodiversity patterns in Asia.

for the financial support during the fieldwork.

*Modeling the Past and Current Distribution and Habitat Suitability for Two Snake-eyed Skinks... DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.82476*

According to results obtained based on this study, the minor snake-eyed skink, *A. grayanus*, and the Asian snake-eyed skink, *A. pannonicus*, are good indicators for assessing the effects of climatic changes on distribution range of the species over time and for understanding biodiversity patterns in Asia.
