Meet the editors

Andrey Kostogryzov is Chief Researcher of the Federal Research Center "Computer Science and Control" of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, and a professor at Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas. He is an Honored Science Worker of the Russian Federation (RF), winner of the Award of the Government of the RF in the Field of Science and Engineering (2015), a Doctor of Engineering (1994), and a professor (1999).

Dr. Kostogryzov is Chairman of Subcommittees "Information Security and Industrial Safety" and "Information Technologies" of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the RF. He is a Certified Expert of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Ministry of Education, Rostechnadzor, "Gazprom" Company. He is also author of more than 100 mathematical models (for analyzing and optimizing quality and risks) and more than 190 scientific works, including 19 books.

Victor Korolev is a professor and head of the Department of Mathematical Statistics, Faculty of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russia. He is a leading researcher of the Federal Research Center "Computer Science and Control" of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow. He is also a professor at Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou, China. Dr. Korlev obtained a PhD in Physics and

Mathematics in 1981 and a Doctor of Science in Physics and Mathematics from Lomonosov Moscow State University in 1994. He is a Lomonosov Prize winner (2005), Honorary Professor of Lomonosov Moscow State University (2006), and Leonard Euler medal (2014, Perm State University). Dr. Korolev's main fields of interest include limit theorems of probability theory and mathematical statistics and their applications to risk theory, reliability theory, financial mathematics and modeling real phenomena. He is the author of more than 300 scientific papers and more than 20 books.

Contents

**Section 1**

Dynamics

Artificial Intelligence Systems

*by Andrey Kostogryzov and Victor Korolev*

*Pavel A. Truskov and Viktor I. Osipov*

Organization-Technical-Economic Systems *by Igor Sinitsyn and Anatoly Shalamov*

*by Dmitry Neganov and Nikolay Makhutov*

**Preface III**

From Reasonable Control to Balanced Human and Artificial **1**

**Chapter 1 3**

**Chapter 2 35**

**Chapter 3 53**

**Chapter 4 73**

**Chapter 5 117**

**Chapter 6 143**

Intelligence, Achievable Effects and Sustainable Harmony

Laboratory, Bench, and Full-Scale Researches of Strength, Reliability, and Safety of High-Power Hydro Turbines *by Nikolay Makhutov, Yury Petrenia, Anatoly Lepikhin,*

*Vladimir Moskvichev, Mikhail Gadenin and Anatoly Tchernyaev*

Mixture Transition Distribution Modelling of Multivariate Time Series of Discrete State Processes: With an Application to Modelling Flowering Synchronisation with Respect to Climate

Hybrid Modeling of Offshore Platforms' Stress-Deformed and Limit States Taking into Account Probabilistic Parameters

Probabilistic Modeling, Estimation and Control for CALS

Combined Calculated, Experimental and Determinated and Probable Justifications for Strength of Trunk Crude Oil Pipelines

*by Gennady Yu. Shmal, Vladimir A. Nadein, Nikolay A. Makhutov,*

*by Irene Hudson, Susan Won Sun Kim and Marie Keatley*

Probabilistic Methods for Cognitive Solving of Some Problems in
