**2.1 Risks analysis**

One of the first places in the field of strategic planning takes the problem of scientific and methodological frameworks building, while in the field of safe shelf development takes scientifically grounded criterion base. At the same time, it is considered that strategic risks of the Russian continental shelf development can be an essential part of strategic risks of national security.

In view of the foregoing, the main objectives of the Institutes of the Russian Academy of Science (RAS) and the leading security matters sectoral scientific research institutes are as follows [1–3]:

• risks' theorization based on fundamental risk analysis database collected and studied in the process of research works in social, natural and technical science of fundamental base. Risks function R(t) is analyzed in three main spheres of activity—social (N), natural (S) and technogenic (T), forming the uniform complex social-and-natural-and-technogenic system functioning in time *t*

$$R(t) = F\_R\{R\_N(t), R\_S(t), R\_T(t)\};\tag{1}$$

• formulation of the generalized model of the specified complex system with definition of its main components N, S, T role in terms of values of basic risks *Hybrid Modeling of Offshore Platforms' Stress-Deformed and Limit States… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.88894*

parameters R(t)—probabilities of occurrence of P(t) negative processes and events (dangers, challenges, threats, crises, disasters and accidents) and consequential losses U(t)

$$R(t) = F\_R\{P(t), U(t)\}\tag{2}$$

$$P(t) = F\_P\{R\_N(t), R\_S(t), R\_T(t)\}\tag{3}$$

$$U(t) = F\_U \{ U\_N(t), U\_S(t), U\_T(t) \} \tag{4}$$

• identification of negative events scenarios with regard to a complex system and quantitative risk assessment R(t) through parameters of main triggering and affecting factors—dangerous energies E(t), substances W(t) and information flows I (t)

$$R(t) = F\_{\mathbb{R}}\{E(t), \mathcal{W}(t), I(t)\}. \tag{5}$$

On the basis of Eqs. (1)–(5), categorization of emergency situations, high-risk objects and dangerous processes in terms of risks R(t) is developed. Objectively, the norm settings, regulation and control in the area of safety provision as per safety and security major components (i.e., social and economic, military, scientific and technical, industrial, environmental and demographic) when using risks nominally comes down to ratio

$$R(t) \le [R(t)],\tag{6}$$

where [*R*(*t*)] is acceptable risks level.

The [*R*(*t*)] value is set and defined by bodies of the highest public administration with consideration of abilities and the capacity of the country, level of scientific justifications and domestic and international experience. The realization of the requirement (6) [1–3] will be provided proceeding from the position that the defining risks of R(t) are two groups of risks:


The economic damages due to loss of lives and human health and environmental and technical infrastructure damages are included in the economic risks R(t). Scientific justification of acceptable risks [R(t)] includes development of methodology of definition of critical (limiting, inadmissible) risks Rc (t) and fixing of risks margin *nR* in the form of

$$\left[R\_{\epsilon}(t)\right] = \frac{R\_{\epsilon}(t)}{n\_R} \tag{7}$$

For quantitative assessment of value of risks Rc (t) relevant to accidents and disasters on SP all basic, Eqs. (1)–(7) can be used while the value of risks margin *nR* shall be greater than unity (*nR* ≥ 1). Considering the best domestic and foreign practices, the variation for risks margin can be rather wide (2 ≤ *nR* ≤ 10) at the beginning.

uncontrolled release of oil and/or gas from the well; damage of integrity of load

(man-induced) nature (allisions with seagoing vessels, helicopters fall, subversive

The probability of accident that may occur during a year on the Unit is in the range from 8 � <sup>10</sup>�<sup>5</sup> up to 1.6 � <sup>10</sup>�<sup>3</sup> per year, and this conclusion is based on the data in the Declaration of Industrial Safety for four Russian production platforms

**2. Comprehensive issues of industrial safety in the process of the**

One of the first places in the field of strategic planning takes the problem of scientific and methodological frameworks building, while in the field of safe shelf development takes scientifically grounded criterion base. At the same time, it is considered that strategic risks of the Russian continental shelf development can be

In view of the foregoing, the main objectives of the Institutes of the Russian Academy of Science (RAS) and the leading security matters sectoral scientific

• risks' theorization based on fundamental risk analysis database collected and studied in the process of research works in social, natural and technical science of fundamental base. Risks function R(t) is analyzed in three main spheres of activity—social (N), natural (S) and technogenic (T), forming the uniform complex social-and-natural-and-technogenic system functioning in time *t*

• formulation of the generalized model of the specified complex system with definition of its main components N, S, T role in terms of values of basic risks

*R t*ðÞ¼ *FR*f g *RN*ð Þ*t* , *RS*ð Þ*t* , *RT*ð Þ*t* ; (1)

bearing (or supporting) structures, as well as equipment failing (or malfunctioning); personnel mistakes; external impacts of technogenic

actions); and off-design impacts of the natural environment.

*Characteristic of accidents on oil and gas production platforms.*

*Probability, Combinatorics and Control*

and nine floating drilling rigs.

**2.1 Risks analysis**

**76**

**Figure 3.**

**continental shelf development**

research institutes are as follows [1–3]:

an essential part of strategic risks of national security.

Based on (1)–(7), actions to provide enhancement of safety and security with the corresponding economic expenses Z(t) shall be developed. The actions directed to reduction of risks R(t) value to the level [R(t)] have to be effective and correlate with the levels of estimated risks R(t)

$$Z(t) = \frac{\mathcal{R}(\iota)}{m\_{\tau}},\tag{8}$$

constructions (dams, platforms), offshore development objects (sea platforms, hydrocarbons storage tanks, LNG plants), the transport systems (airspace, surface and underwater, on-land) that provide transportation of dangerous cargos, large number of people, main gas-, oil pipelines and product lines. In this line, the

At the same time, a majority of accidents and disasters are followed by infringement of stress conditions and depletion of lifetime of the most loaded components in routine situations or in emergencies. The probabilities P(t) characterizing frequency of disaster accidents occurrence in peace time ranges from (2–3)<sup>10</sup><sup>2</sup> up to (0.5–1) 10<sup>1</sup> per year, while damages (losses) U(t) ranges from 1011 to 109 dollars per accident. At the same time, their risks R(t) vary in the limits from 104 dollars per year to 1010 dollars per year ranging from 104 dollars/year up to 1010 dollars/year.

In view of said above, the new fundamental and applied scientific tasks needed

• limit states, strength and lifetime theories taking into account accidental and

• theory of hardware, functional and integral protection in case of emergency of

• theories of monitoring and forecast of scenarios and technogenic (man-made) disasters consequences (using airspace, airborne and ground-based systems);

• scientific methods, technologies and hardware for mitigation of consequences

• mathematical theory of disasters and probabilistic theory of risks;

• physics, chemistry and mechanics of emergencies and disasters;

hazardous objects of defense industry also shall be mentioned.

*Losses (damages) and frequency of natural and man-made accidents and disasters.*

*Hybrid Modeling of Offshore Platforms' Stress-Deformed and Limit States…*

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.88894*

to be set at national and international levels, for instance:

of emergency situations of technogenic nature.

emergency situations;

and

**79**

**Figure 4.**

objects, operators and personnel;

where *mz* is the performance factor of economic costs for reduction of economic risks (*mz* ≥ 1).

The general expression for the analysis and the sea platforms safety provision as per risks criteria based on Eqs. (1)–(8) is the following:

$$R(t) = F\_{\mathcal{H}}\left\{P(t), U(t)\right\} \subseteq \left[R(t)\right] = \frac{\mathcal{H}\_{\varepsilon}(t)}{m\_{\varepsilon}} = m\_{\varepsilon} \cdot Z(t) \,. \tag{9}$$

In the Eq. (9), practically are represented all set above main:

