3.1 The application of fuzzy GMDH for financial state forecasting

In the process of investigations, fuzzy group method of data handling (FGMDH) was also suggested for financial state of Ukrainian banks forecasting [3]. GMDH is the inductive modeling method that enables to construct a model automatically by experimental data [3]. As input data, the same indices were used as in the experiments with FNN TSK.

In Table 11, the forecasting accuracy of FGMDH is presented in dependence on input data collection period.

If we compare the results of FGMDH with the results of FNN TSK, one can see that FNN TSK gives better results for short-term risk forecasting (one year before possible bankruptcy) while FGMDH has better accuracy using older input data and so it has advantages in long-term forecasting (2 or more years).
