**1. Introduction**

Climate has been changing on a global scale since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution; particularly rapid climate change including changes in many extreme weather and climate events has been observed since about the 1950s [1]. The increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather and climate events has resulted in an increased number of natural disasters impacting on the wellbeing of society. Asia-Pacific is one of the world's most disaster-prone regions, according

to the "Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2012" prepared by the United Nations (UN) Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific and the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction: "almost 2 million people were killed in disasters between 1970 and 2011, representing 75% of all disaster fatalities globally; the most frequent hazards in the region are hydro-meteorological, which affect the most people; since 2000, more than 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydro-meteorological hazards alone, through 1215 disaster events" [2].

Economic losses in Asia and the Pacific in 1970–2016 attributed to disasters including droughts, floods, storms, earthquakes and tsunamis total to about \$1.3 trillion [3]. Economic losses have been rising over the past decades, and it is projected that losses will continue to increase. UN assessment indicates that increase in frequency and magnitude of disasters combined with the increased vulnerability of society could cost the Asia-Pacific region \$160 billion per year by 2030 [4].

Developing countries, least developed countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are particularly vulnerable to impact of climate change and climate extremes, including drought, which could lead to water crisis or severe food shortage. For example, a prolonged drought episode related to the strong 2010–2011 La Niña event affected multiple SIDS in the Pacific, including Samoa, Tokelau, Tonga and Tuvalu. The impact of the drought was particularly severe in Tuvalu resulting in water crisis [5]. The Government of Tuvalu declared a state of emergency due to critically low water supplies, and households were rationed to about 40 L of freshwater per family per day [6]. In Papua New Guinea, severe drought caused by strong El Niño event in 2015–2016 affected about 40% of the population, with almost half a million people experiencing food shortages [7].

The Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems international initiative was established in 2015 [8] to enhance early warning systems (EWSs) for vulnerable countries dealing with climate change. CREWS presently operates in countries in Africa, the Pacific and the Caribbean, providing EWS to protect the most vulnerable populations against hydrometeorological hazards like tropical cyclones, droughts and floods [9]. In most of those countries, meteorological observation networks are currently barely adequate, and EWS are basic. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), working in partnership with the national governments and hydrometeorological agencies of LDCs and SIDS through the projects of the CREWS initiative, strives to improve decision-making around climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction and sustainable development.

In Africa—in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger—CREWS supports the improvement of operational hydrometeorological forecasts and early warnings for agriculture and food security related to flood and drought risks. In the Caribbean, CREWS assists countries in the region to strengthen regional and national systems and capacity related to weather forecasting, hydrological services, multi-hazard impact-based warnings and service delivery, including tropical cyclones, for enhanced decision-making. In the Pacific—in Fiji, Cook Islands, Kiribati, Niue, Tuvalu, the Federated States of Micronesia, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Palau, Nauru, the Marshall Islands, Tokelau and Vanuatu—CREWS projects strengthen the capacity of SIDS in hydrometeorological services and EWS. In Papua New Guinea, CREWS improves the existing drought monitoring network, as well as early warnings for the agriculture sector and emergency service managers.

In this chapter, the CREWS project for PNG and its implementation strategy are described; synergies with the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative, the PNG Capacity Development Program and the Space-Based Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring Demonstration Project (SEMDP) are outlined; and the project's preliminary results are presented.

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tally unfriendly.

*Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) for Papua New Guinea*

rational for CREWS-PNG project and its implementation strategy.

significant impacts on PNG agriculture and energy and mining sectors.

plants that are usually eaten as a supplement source of food.

and other minerals from being shipped out.

For agriculture, the 2015–2016 El Niño-induced drought and frost led to crop failures which affected almost 2.5 million people (approximately 40% of the population) with almost half a million people suffering severe food shortages [7]. Staple sweet potato crops in the highlands were severely damaged by frosts in August 2015—the result of reduced night-time cloud cover—which also destroyed wild

For energy, the hydropower plant at Yonki Dam, which supplies the entire highlands and the Momase regions with electricity, and the Sirinumu Dam, which supplies the nation's capital Port Moresby, were not able to adequately meet the expected energy demands due to low water levels. As a result, energy suppliers were forced to switch to diesel power generation which was both costly and environmen-

For mining, Ok Tedi, one of PNG's major mining operations, closed down its operations due to very low water levels in the Fly River which prevented cooper ore

It is expected that climate change will exacerbate those hazards already impacting on agricultural yields and the productivity of other economy sectors, further reducing the financial and social wellbeing of PNG population. Addressing these issues, the government of PNG through the Office of Climate Change and Development has put its emphasis on combating natural hazards in the country, including food insecurity caused by crop failures due to droughts and inland frosts. The CREWS-PNG project aims to address this government priority through enhancing EWS and strengthening resilience to climate change by providing

**2.1 Climate impacts on PNG climate-sensitive sectors**

The CREWS-PNG project develops improved drought monitoring and subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction that can foster better decision-making for agriculture, water management and other climate-sensitive sectors by creating an end-to-end EWS aimed at reducing the impacts of drought. In this section, a brief overview of climate impacts on PNG climate-sensitive sectors is presented, providing the

PNG is a country in the Southwest Pacific with a population of almost 7 million people, with agriculture providing a subsistence livelihood for 85% of the population. PNG, the largest of the Pacific Island Countries, faces multiple climate changerelated challenges. Climate-related natural disasters, as well as gradual shifts in climatic and oceanic conditions, already pose significant risks to PNG, disrupting daily life, causing damage to assets and infrastructure, destroying livelihoods and

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the key drivers of interannual climate variability around the globe, with substantial impacts felt in PNG. During the warm phase of ENSO (El Niño), ocean surface waters in the central and western Pacific Ocean cool, causing a shift in weather patterns and associated rainfall towards the eastern Pacific. This often results in severe rainfall deficits in the western Pacific, leading to significant drought conditions across PNG. However during the cool phase of ENSO (La Niña), warmer than average ocean surface waters and enhanced convection and rainfall occur over the Maritime Continent, which can result in extreme precipitation, flooding and landslides in PNG. These climate extremes take a severe toll on both the population and economy of PNG people. For instance, the 2015–2016 El Niño, which was one of the three strongest El Niño events since the 1950s, had

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.85962*

**2. CREWS-PNG**

killing or injuring people.
