*2.6.5.1 Niger Basin at the Lokoja gauge station*

The multi-model median reveals a reduction in the river discharge at the start of the high flow period. Total projected decreases added up to 512 m3 /s under RCP 4.5 (June to July) and 3652 m3 /s under RCP 8.5 from June to August. The most reduction in discharge volume (2101 m3 /s) occurs in August under RCP8.5, corresponding to about 58% of the total decrease for the three months. Eisner et al. [13] showed that under RCP8.5, the Niger basin shows declining discharge at the onset of the rainy season, with the highest loss 37 per cent occurring in August. When looking under the RCP 4.5 (**Figure 6**), discharge volume is expected to increase from August. The most significant increase under the moderate end scenario is shown in September and October, which considerably adds up to about +5565 m3/s (+52%) volume to the total increase in discharge volume. **Figures 7** and **8** show that MIROC-ESM-CHEM hydrological simulation under both scenarios results in considerable volume increases all through the year caused by a related rise in precipitation, particularly towards the end of the rain period (August to September). **Figures 7** and **8** also reveal that the other four hydrological simulations show contrasting change direction (decrease and increase) notably from August to November based on the individual climate model. The conflicting trend of change of each climate model cancels out in the multi-model median.
