*2.2.3 Climate scenarios*

We used the output of GCMs from the first phase of the ISI-MIP [37], which has five GCMs from the CMIP5 archive. GCMs from the CMIP5 archive [38]. In the framework of the ISIMIP, five GCMs simulations were bi-linearly downscaled spatially to a 0.5° × 0.5° grid for the period of 1950–2099 [39]. The five GCMs are GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M. The GCMs were selected because of their wide application for modelling, predicting climate extremes, and investigating physical climate processes over West Africa [12, 40–42]. Again, the availability of ensemble member bias-corrected using an established approach to facilitate climate change impact assessments [43], guided our selection.
