5. Conclusions and future work

Time series SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)4 model and SARIMAX (1,0,0)(2,0,0)12 model are statistical forecasting models for predicting time series quarterly catch of shrimp production and monthly total fish production in Chilika lagoon. Seasons play a significant influence in shrimp and total fish production in the lagoon. Model prediction showed shrimp and total fish catch of the lagoon will increase in the upcoming years by maintaining the present environmental and ecological conditions of the lagoon. Summer and monsoon seasons have explicit influence on shrimp production in the lagoon. Salinity and temperature of the lagoon positively influence on the total fish catch in the lagoon. Model predicts that shrimp and total fish catch will increase in the upcoming years till 2018 with respect to the base year 2015 in the lagoon. Therefore, continuous monitoring in the lagoon is essential to manage its rich and productive fishery resources, as well as its ecological integrity. This information would provide kind support to the managers of Chilika Development Authority to continue the present efforts for getting a good rich production for the livelihood of the fishermen dependent upon and sustainable management of fisheries. This time series model based study will be useful for forecasting fish production in different lagoon or aquatic system. Besides the catch and water quality monitoring, some related information regarding average monthly influx of tides in respect of amplitude and duration may be recorded for correlation with the catch variability of important species and consideration in trend analysis.
