Abstract

Chilika lagoon (a Ramsar site) is a large source of fish production and biodiversity situated in the east coast of India, Odisha. Shrimp landings contribute an average of 4185 MT (Metric Ton) around 35% of total fish production. In this study, SARIMA (Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model has been developed on quarterly time series shrimp catch data during the year 2001–2015 and forecasted up to 2018. The best model was selected on Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (SBC). Results showed that maximum average shrimp landings were observed in the first quarter period (summer season), whereas maximum variation in catch was observed during second quarter Q2 (monsoon season) and lowest variation in the fourth quarter Q4 (winter season) catch during the year 2001–2015. The developed time series SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)4 model was found to be the best fitted model for the shrimp landings in the lagoon. This article also delineates the application of SARIMAX model (SARIMA with regressors) using monthly catch prediction of fisheries in the Chilika Lake. The developed model is validated with less than 10% errors showing increasing fish catch in the upcoming years by maintaining the present lake condition.

Keywords: Chilika, shrimp, fisheries, time series, forecasting
