Time Series Forecasting in Real-World Problems

Chapter 5

Abstract

1. Introduction

47.02″ N to longitude 85°06<sup>0</sup>

54<sup>0</sup>

83

Analysis

Forecasting Shrimp and Fish Catch

Chilika lagoon (a Ramsar site) is a large source of fish production and biodiver-

sity situated in the east coast of India, Odisha. Shrimp landings contribute an average of 4185 MT (Metric Ton) around 35% of total fish production. In this study, SARIMA (Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model has been developed on quarterly time series shrimp catch data during the year 2001–2015 and forecasted up to 2018. The best model was selected on Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (SBC). Results showed that maximum average shrimp landings were observed in the first quarter period (summer season), whereas maximum variation in catch was observed during second quarter Q2 (monsoon season) and lowest variation in the fourth quarter Q4 (winter season) catch during the year 2001–2015. The developed time series SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)4 model was found to be the best fitted model for the shrimp landings in the lagoon. This article also delineates the application of SARIMAX model (SARIMA with regressors) using monthly catch prediction of fisheries in the Chilika Lake. The developed model is validated with less than 10% errors showing increasing fish catch in the upcoming years by maintaining the present lake condition.

in Chilika Lake over Time Series

Rohan Kumar Raman and Basanta Kumar Das

Keywords: Chilika, shrimp, fisheries, time series, forecasting

lagoon in the eastern coast of India situated between latitude 19°20<sup>0</sup>

49.15″–85°35<sup>0</sup>

zone in the state of Odisha, India (Figure 1). The lagoon is composed of fresh, brackish and marine water ecosystems and divided into outer channel, central sector, northern sector and southern sector. The lagoon is a rich source of fisheries production and biodiversity, which harbours more than 29 species of shrimp from 8 families [3], providing livelihood around 0.2 million people around it. Fisheries resources in Chilika lake account more than 71% total valuation of the lake ecosystem [4]. The lake has been supporting around 200 million rupees to the state

Coastal lagoon is a junction of fresh, brackish, and marine water system and known for its large fish species production and diversity among aquatic ecosystem [1, 2]. The fresh and saline water combination makes it more liable for attracting different finfish and shellfish species in the aquatic ecosystem. The Chilika lake (lagoon) (a Ramsar site of International importance) is the largest brackish water

13.06″–19°

32.87″ E in the humid tropical climatic
