6. Conclusions

In this chapter, we used an agricultural supply model to simulate the effect of water scarcity on agricultural production in Tunisia. We simulated three scenarios related to (i) cutting irrigation water availability, (ii) cutting irrigation water availability accompanied by relative improvement of irrigation water use efficiency, and (iii) scenario 2 in addition to enhanced producer prices for farmers. Results were overall showing that mitigating a shortage of irrigation water in Tunisia is possible through readjustment of irrigated and rain-fed areas and better allocation of crops among regions and systems (irrigated vs. rain-fed). Results also show that the best scenario which has a significant effect on agricultural value added is the third one. Under this scenario, agricultural employment in the overall agricultural sector can even increase. We strongly recommend that the "national agricultural map" already developed by the Tunisian government could be revised using further socioeconomic data and applied for an optimal allocation of crop areas across the country. We further recommend that more work should be done on better performing the structure and the functioning of the strategic agri-food value chain in Tunisia, allowing better marketing margins for farmers which will thus be translated into higher adaptation capacities of farmers to climate change and water scarcity.
