4.4 Social effect of water scarcity scenarios

In this section we provide an overview of changes in labor demand under different scenarios compared to the baseline situation. Figure 6 shows that despite the optimization of land use and agricultural value added, agricultural labor

Figure 5. Changes of regional agricultural value added under different scenarios in Tunisia (million TND).

4.3 Impact on agricultural value added

Total water use for irrigation under different scenarios.

Agricultural Economics - Current Issues

as shown in Table 2.

Figure 4.

40

Effect of water scarcity scenarios on the national agricultural value added.

Figure 3.

ASMOT provides information about the total value added of its respective agricultural land area as the most aggregated results calculated based on optimi-

presented for separate scenarios. For our particular case, the optimization process shows that Tunisia can overcome the problem of water scarcity (Figure 4) through specific structural changes of land use among crops, systems, and regions, as suggested in Table 2. Figure 4 shows that agricultural value added in Tunisia will decrease with only 0.76 and 0.16%, respectively, under SC1 and SC2. However, these slight changes can only be possible if structural adaptations of the Tunisian agricultural sector, based on specific land use reallocations, are adopted

Scenario 2 shows that with 10% increase of IWUE, the cut of water availability can be effectively mitigated, with an agricultural value added remaining almost equal to the status quo situation. If producer prices will further be supported (+5% for cereal crops and +10% for fruits and vegetable crops), the agricultural value added in Tunisia can even be 13% higher than the baseline situation, despite the sharp water cut considered. This higher value added of SC3 is not only due to the suggested price inflation but also to the restructuring of land use and the

zation of these values at regional levels. This result can be calculated and

demand will still be negatively affected under both SC1 and SC2, with respective decreases of 0.7 and 0.18% compared to the baseline situation. The same figure shows that this decrease of labor demand is exclusively recorded for irrigated areas and can reach–5.91% in these areas under the first scenario. The third scenario shows however that overall agricultural labor demand in Tunisia can increase with

about 1.06% (around 8500 employment), despite the water scarcity situation. It is important to notice that, in opposite to SC1 and SC2, labor demand will increase under SC3 for the irrigation sector despite the decrease of the irrigated areas under

Effects of Water Scarcity on the Performances of the Agricultural Sector and Adaptation…

Similar to the agricultural value added, labor demand in agriculture will disproportionally be affected along the different regions of Tunisia. Figure 7 captures most of these regional effects for both rain-fed and irrigated sectors. Despite the negative trend of labor demand in the irrigated sector, the restructuring of irrigated areas in the North West and Central East of Tunisia may generate slightly higher employment while at the same time maximize the value added of this sector. Furthermore, results show that labor demand in irrigated areas of South Tunisia will

The scope of enhanced IWUE was proven through our analysis to be highly effective in mitigating the effects of water scarcity in the different regions of Tunisia. Better IWUEs (SC2) are allowed for lower decrease of irrigated areas than the no IWUE scenario (SC1). In the NE region, these decreases were, respectively, 15 and 6% under SC1 and SC2. At the national level, irrigated areas decreased with 10.6 and 3.7%, respectively, under SC1 and SC2. This is showing a wide scope of IWUE to improve irrigation performances and sustain irrigation. However, IWUE can be defined at different scales including user/scheme and basin levels. Through our modeling framework, we only captured benefits of IWUE in terms of water saving. However, in addition to the benefits captured by our model in terms of water saving, physical efficiency at the user/scheme level will also be translated into increased water productivity (or economic efficiency) [45]. Mechanisms to reallocate saved water elsewhere in the water economy will further be necessary to enhance basin-level efficiency. On the other hand, only improvement of IWUE through better technology and management can generate real water savings [45]. Hence, in order to improve IWUE, some measures could be considered such as assisting farmers by providing enhanced knowledge about better irrigation scheduling of optimal amounts of applied water. Another measure would be related to better management of irrigation systems at the field and the landscape levels. Without substantial improvement in the productivity of rain-fed agriculture, and despite a considerable expansion of cropped area, irrigated area would have to increase close to 500 million ha globally to meet the expected food demand, entailing a doubling of water use [46]. However, it is unlikely that suitable natural resources for such expansion might be available and the increase of agricultural productivity in both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture is necessary to meet such a global food demand. In Tunisia, our results show that rain-fed agriculture might be a good alternative for mitigating the effects of future water scarcity. In fact, value added of this sector was stable over the different scenarios, and it also showed a

good potential for absorbing unemployment from the irrigated sector.

The overall effect of the water shortage scenarios on employment is negative, but this negative effect can widely be mitigated and improved if producer prices can be increased. Increased producer prices do not necessarily entail higher consumer prices but can simply be implemented through enhanced management, regulation, and control of agri-food value chains. This is in line with the suggestion that better integration of farmers along commodities value chains may offer enhanced and more equitable producer prices [42], which can in turn be considered as a type

be decreasing even under the third optimistic scenario.

this scenario (3.6%).

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.83568

5. Discussions

43

Figure 6. Effect of different scenarios on regional agricultural labor demand (percentage changes compared to baseline).

#### Figure 7.

Effect of different scenarios of regional agricultural employment under different scenarios (percentage change compared to baseline).

Effects of Water Scarcity on the Performances of the Agricultural Sector and Adaptation… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.83568

about 1.06% (around 8500 employment), despite the water scarcity situation. It is important to notice that, in opposite to SC1 and SC2, labor demand will increase under SC3 for the irrigation sector despite the decrease of the irrigated areas under this scenario (3.6%).

Similar to the agricultural value added, labor demand in agriculture will disproportionally be affected along the different regions of Tunisia. Figure 7 captures most of these regional effects for both rain-fed and irrigated sectors. Despite the negative trend of labor demand in the irrigated sector, the restructuring of irrigated areas in the North West and Central East of Tunisia may generate slightly higher employment while at the same time maximize the value added of this sector. Furthermore, results show that labor demand in irrigated areas of South Tunisia will be decreasing even under the third optimistic scenario.

#### 5. Discussions

demand will still be negatively affected under both SC1 and SC2, with respective decreases of 0.7 and 0.18% compared to the baseline situation. The same figure shows that this decrease of labor demand is exclusively recorded for irrigated areas and can reach–5.91% in these areas under the first scenario. The third scenario shows however that overall agricultural labor demand in Tunisia can increase with

Agricultural Economics - Current Issues

Effect of different scenarios on regional agricultural labor demand (percentage changes compared to baseline).

Effect of different scenarios of regional agricultural employment under different scenarios (percentage change

Figure 6.

Figure 7.

42

compared to baseline).

The scope of enhanced IWUE was proven through our analysis to be highly effective in mitigating the effects of water scarcity in the different regions of Tunisia. Better IWUEs (SC2) are allowed for lower decrease of irrigated areas than the no IWUE scenario (SC1). In the NE region, these decreases were, respectively, 15 and 6% under SC1 and SC2. At the national level, irrigated areas decreased with 10.6 and 3.7%, respectively, under SC1 and SC2. This is showing a wide scope of IWUE to improve irrigation performances and sustain irrigation. However, IWUE can be defined at different scales including user/scheme and basin levels. Through our modeling framework, we only captured benefits of IWUE in terms of water saving. However, in addition to the benefits captured by our model in terms of water saving, physical efficiency at the user/scheme level will also be translated into increased water productivity (or economic efficiency) [45]. Mechanisms to reallocate saved water elsewhere in the water economy will further be necessary to enhance basin-level efficiency. On the other hand, only improvement of IWUE through better technology and management can generate real water savings [45]. Hence, in order to improve IWUE, some measures could be considered such as assisting farmers by providing enhanced knowledge about better irrigation scheduling of optimal amounts of applied water. Another measure would be related to better management of irrigation systems at the field and the landscape levels.

Without substantial improvement in the productivity of rain-fed agriculture, and despite a considerable expansion of cropped area, irrigated area would have to increase close to 500 million ha globally to meet the expected food demand, entailing a doubling of water use [46]. However, it is unlikely that suitable natural resources for such expansion might be available and the increase of agricultural productivity in both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture is necessary to meet such a global food demand. In Tunisia, our results show that rain-fed agriculture might be a good alternative for mitigating the effects of future water scarcity. In fact, value added of this sector was stable over the different scenarios, and it also showed a good potential for absorbing unemployment from the irrigated sector.

The overall effect of the water shortage scenarios on employment is negative, but this negative effect can widely be mitigated and improved if producer prices can be increased. Increased producer prices do not necessarily entail higher consumer prices but can simply be implemented through enhanced management, regulation, and control of agri-food value chains. This is in line with the suggestion that better integration of farmers along commodities value chains may offer enhanced and more equitable producer prices [42], which can in turn be considered as a type

of market incentive for farmers and can be used to promote specific agricultural productions [43, 44].
