Resource Economics

Chapter 3

Abstract

in Tunisia

water shortage, Tunisia

1. Introduction

31

Effects of Water Scarcity on the

Performances of the Agricultural

Sector and Adaptation Strategies

The chapter aims to develop a regionally disaggregated agricultural supply model for Tunisia in order to investigate the potential effects of increasing water scarcity on the performances of the agricultural sector in the country, and the structural adaptation strategies needed to face such a challenge. A set of scenarios combining future water availability, water use efficiency, and increasing producer prices were simulated using the developed model. Results show that the agricultural sector in Tunisia, particularly the agricultural employment, would be negatively affected in case of decreasing irrigation water availability, and mostly affected regions would be the north east, central west, and southern areas. However, it is always possible to mitigate such effects through a combination of structural adjustments (changing land use in different regions), enhanced water use efficiency, and support of producer prices. The model also provides recommendations regarding specific crops that should be promoted in specific regions in order to maintain an

Keywords: agricultural supply model, mathematical programming, regional level,

The impacts of climate change (CC) will be channeled primarily through the water cycle [1], with consequences that could be large and uneven particularly on the agricultural sector. Ref. [1] also entails that some regions could see their growth rate decline by as much as 6% of GDP by 2050 as a result of water-related losses in agriculture, health, income, and property. For the Mediterranean countries, reduction of freshwater availability is predicted to attain more than 40% by the end of this century along the coastal areas [2]. The North African region is one of the regions which will be affected the most by CC, as anticipated by different climate models [3]. The region is already experiencing low rainfall characterized by its high variability, which is influencing agricultural production systems and changing their determinants. Climate model simulations are providing converging results concerning the

Ali Chebil, Aymen Frija, Mariem Makhlouf,

Chokri Thabet and Sihem Jebari

agricultural sector with high added value in Tunisia.
