**Abstract**

The wood-based panel industry is one of the fast developing and growing sectors in the world. As of the year 2017, Turkey is the fourth biggest wood-based panel producer with a share of 3.9%. The fast sectoral development is considered as a positive indicator, although unplanned growth is not desirable. In this scope, the raw material Turkey possesses, and the opportunity to meet the future demand of the sector has been investigated. The estimated production capacity of Turkey for the year 2018 is calculated as 6,657,294 m3 /year for particle board using two average alternative models. The sector's possible yearly demand concerning the production capacity is approximately 11–12 million m3 besides the 8–9 million m3 production from the local production import gain ground. Providing a solution concerning the raw material supply, increasing the industrial afforestation, amplifying the state aid in the local products, and taking the necessary measures in order to decrease the cost is crucial. The said measures might have a significant role to offer a solution for the problems of the sector. The future projections should aim at reaching a solution to the raw material problem and the technical problems.

**Keywords:** fiberwood, fuelwood, demand, supply, forestry, Turkey

### **1. Introduction**

The development in the forest industry has progressed to the use of solid-like materials rather than solid wood materials. The main reason behind this progress is thought to be the demand and the concern on the capability of meeting this demand. Although wood is an important raw material, it has become more difficult to meet the demand in every passing year [1]. Because the formation of wood-based raw material obtained from forests needs a quite long period of time. The growth of wood-based industries all over the world has made the use of new substitute materials instead of wood inevitable [2–4]. On the other hand, neither the diversity in substitute materials nor the use of both wood-based materials and other materials at the same time has reduced the demand for wood. In this respect, the wood industry is subject to a constant development and change [5]. The wood-based panel industry is an important forest-based one in China. At this point, for example, woodbased panels have high economic importance in China economy. Some projections show that the production of the wood-based panel industry has expanded considerably in recent years and is expected to increase with an average annual growth rate of 1.05% from 2015 to 2030 [6, 7]. One of the most leading sectors in terms of this mentioned change and development has been the board industry.

In fact, the forest industry has been an essential leading branch of the industry since old days in terms of social development [8–12]. Therefore, the use of wood in the industry continues as it was in the past. Similarly, the use of wood as an industrial material is still an important source of income for both those who produce wood and treat wood to produce wood products [13, 14]. When the subject is approached in terms of the industry, another reality is that the particleboard and fiberboard industries have developed particularly in recent years and a heavy raw material demand exists [15]. When the issue is considered from a historical perspective, the industrial production of particleboard started in 1941 in Germany and showed a rapid development after 1948 [16]. Although the fiberboard industry started in the early 1900s, the large-scale commercial production emerged between the two world wars in the United States [17–19]. The main reason for the fact that the particleboard industry first emerged and developed in Central European countries is the desire to substitute wood with a new and more economical construction material with more convenient dimensions and to make savings from wood use just like the other construction materials as a result of the destruction caused by the Second World War [20].

The fact that the private sector completely dominated the forest product industry since the early 1990s has been accompanied by huge investment in the field by private companies. When considered from this point of view, it can be stated that the wood-based panel industry has carried out a great development in the past 20 years in particular [21]. However, rapid growth and development have brought adverse effects as well. The difficulty in meeting raw material demand comes at the top of these adverse effects. The most serious bottleneck in meeting the demand for raw material is considered to be the prices and the amount of the demand [12, 22, 23]. Public dominated production in Turkey has usually been a problem in meeting the raw material demand of the private sector. This situation has led the sector to import, but as a result of the recent changes in the raw material exporting policies of the countries and the economic events, this option has become insufficient in solving the problem.

The estimated production capacity of the board industry in Turkey is 5.1 million m3 of particleboard per year. As for fiberboard, the production amount is 6.8 million m3 per year [24]. The total number of production facilities in the sector is 35 of which 19 produce particleboard and 16 produce fiberboard. The total production capacity of the industry is approximately 12 million m3 per year, whereas the actual production is 8.6 million m3 per year (Particle Board Industry Association [25]). Therefore, in addition to particleboard and fiberboard purchased by the sector from General Directorate of Forestry (OGM), fuelwood has also been added to the demand list of the sector. Latest investments in the fiberboard and particleboard industries and capacity enhancement attempts are expected to move the sector further. However, the expectation of low raw material supply for the sector is assumed as the biggest obstacle for the companies by the representatives of the sector against production enhancement (particularly in 2013). The expectations by the industry, the production amount of the forestry organization, and the changes in related policies shall directly affect the future of the industry. At this point, it is crucially important to estimate the changes in the raw material supply of the wood-based industry in the forthcoming period.

This study aims to introduce suggestions on meeting the raw material demand, which is considered to be the main problem of the wood-based panel industry. The raw material supply amount of OGM, which is the main raw material supplier for the industry, has been projected by considering the particle-fiber wood, which is an important kind of raw material for the sector, and fuelwood production amount between the years 1977 and 2017. Certainly, the presence of various social and economic factors has been taken into consideration while making the

**103**

regression analysis.

*Raw Material Demand-Supply and Policy Recommendations of Turkish Wood-Based...*

projection. The main factors taken into consideration might be listed as follows: population; gross national product per capita; and afforestation fields, which are important for the sustainability of the forestlands and the unit sale price of the particle-fiber wood and fuelwood. One of the important variables to be considered in terms of the results of the study is the number of companies operating in the board industry and their production capacities. However, these variables have not been able to be evaluated under findings as there are not any regular statistics on the issue, but they have been evaluated in the suggestions provided under the conclusion part instead. The fact that no data can be found on the particle-fiber wood production of OGM until the year 1977 has been effective in gathering data

As it is known, the dependent variable in an economic event is sometimes affected by a single independent variable and sometimes by more than one independent variable. When the dependent variable is explained by more than one independent variable, multidimensional decision-making methods are used [26]. Multidimensional decision-making methods are suitable for the structure of forest resources, and with the use of the method, more significant decisions and solution offers in forest resources management can be created [27, 28]. In this respect, multidimensional decision-making methods are of the most frequently used methods in forestry studies. Regression analysis is one of the appropriate multidimensional

In regression modeling, the intended use has to be well defined in order to find the most appropriate regression model [29–31]. Since the long-term data of the previous years (between 1977 and 2017) had been obtained regularly on a yearly basis and the purpose was to estimate the raw material production to meet the demand, regression modeling has been preferred to use. Two techniques are used in regression analyses. They are simple regression analysis and multiple regression analysis. Multiple linear regression modeling has been determined as the most appropriate modeling technique for the study as it provides the chance of evaluating multiple data. Multiple linear regression analysis has been formed for the purposes of revealing how the production amount of particle-fiber wood and fuelwood changes depending on the specified independent variables and determining the raw material amount that can be provided by country resources for the industry. Future projections concerning supply and demand equilibrium have been made regarding the established capacity of the industry (taking into account the available quantitative data range and the data quantity) as well. In terms of research technique, Durbin Watson (DW) statistic and coefficient have been utilized first, in order to test the autocorrelation among the independent variables used in the multiple linear

While determining the particle-fiber wood and fuelwood supply amounts of the wood-based panel industry according to the data by OGM, particle-fiber wood production amount (Y1) and fuelwood production amount (Y2) have been specified as dependent variables. Unit sale price of the particle-fiber wood (X1), unit sale price of fuelwood (X2), afforestation rate (X3), population (X4), and current producer prices in the US dollar basis with the gross national product (X5) have been accepted as independent variables. The data related to the mentioned variables have been derived from the databases of OGM, Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), İstanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO), State Planning Organization (DPT), and the World Bank. The data including the number of facilities in the industry and

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.82627*

starting from the year 1977.

**2. Material and method**

decision-making methods for the study.

*Raw Material Demand-Supply and Policy Recommendations of Turkish Wood-Based... DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.82627*

projection. The main factors taken into consideration might be listed as follows: population; gross national product per capita; and afforestation fields, which are important for the sustainability of the forestlands and the unit sale price of the particle-fiber wood and fuelwood. One of the important variables to be considered in terms of the results of the study is the number of companies operating in the board industry and their production capacities. However, these variables have not been able to be evaluated under findings as there are not any regular statistics on the issue, but they have been evaluated in the suggestions provided under the conclusion part instead. The fact that no data can be found on the particle-fiber wood production of OGM until the year 1977 has been effective in gathering data starting from the year 1977.
