**3. Study methods**

In order to organize the review of literature, a conceptual framework of direct and indirect changes hypothesized to climate change was developed (**Figure 3**). A change in the climate would first alter various climate attributes. These may include change in average temperature, change in amount of distribution of

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water bodies.

(1966–2015) [15].

*Resiliency of Prairie Agriculture to Climate Change DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.87098*

thus create new export opportunities for the region.

**4.1 Impacts on climate attributes**

affecting their food self-sufficiency.

**4. Results**

precipitation (including the form of precipitation—snow vs. rain), and occurrence of extreme events in a region. These changes would directly affect the Prairie Region, particularly agricultural production. Some of these would include biophysical changes, such as change in yield, introduction of new crops, and suitability of a region for agricultural production, among others. These biophysical changes would translate into socioeconomic changes, first on farms and the agriculture industry, and then through economic linkages to other sectors of the economy, they would affect the entire regional economy. Since the region has a surplus for many crops and livestock products, its economic fortunes also depend upon agricultural commodity exports to other countries. As climate change affects other parts of the world, it may create food security issues in these countries and

Climate change would alter several climate-related attributes that might affect the Prairie Region. These may include [11] (1) change in the temperature, (2) change in the level of precipitation and its form (more precipitation occurring as rain than snow), (3) inter-year variability in precipitation, and (4) change in the frequency of extreme events. In addition, an indirect economic effect on the region could be through sea level rise affecting agricultural production in other countries,

Although global warming would affect all parts of the world, higher impacts are predicted for the northern hemisphere (which includes the Prairie Region). This region is expected to become warmer during the fall and winter seasons. In the agricultural belt, increases of 2–4°C will be experienced during the growing season [8]. During the September to November period, an increase of 2–3°C will be more common all over southern agricultural belt in Canada by 2041–2070. Increased temperatures would result in an increase in the duration of the growing season for crops and early seeding dates. Precipitation in the agricultural region is not projected to increase much but its variability is expected to increase. By the 2080s, projected precipitation increases may range from 0 to 10% in the far south, which through enhanced evapotranspiration will result in a moisture deficit during the growing season [12]. Associated with higher temperatures, some of the precipitation in the region would come as rain rather than snow. Depending on the saturation status of the soils, some of the precipitation would result in runoff and may create reduced moisture available for the crops. In addition, runoff from agricultural lands could create environmental problems such as eutrophication of

Studies [13–16] have shown greater drought frequency and severity in the region

mainly due to increasing temperatures. In the future, there would be a higher persistence of multiyear droughts in central and southern portions of Canadian Prairies. Multiyear severe droughts could have an effect on soil moisture and may eventually make some parts of the region not suitable for agriculture. More recently, flooding has also been a major occurrence. This creates problems for farmers not only through soil erosion but also through late seeding or totally no seeding in some areas. In Manitoba, for example, there is evidence to suggest that recent agricultural losses from flooding increased by over 300% since the historical period

#### **Figure 3.** *Conceptual framework for estimating impacts of climate change on society.*

*Resiliency of Prairie Agriculture to Climate Change DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.87098*

precipitation (including the form of precipitation—snow vs. rain), and occurrence of extreme events in a region. These changes would directly affect the Prairie Region, particularly agricultural production. Some of these would include biophysical changes, such as change in yield, introduction of new crops, and suitability of a region for agricultural production, among others. These biophysical changes would translate into socioeconomic changes, first on farms and the agriculture industry, and then through economic linkages to other sectors of the economy, they would affect the entire regional economy. Since the region has a surplus for many crops and livestock products, its economic fortunes also depend upon agricultural commodity exports to other countries. As climate change affects other parts of the world, it may create food security issues in these countries and thus create new export opportunities for the region.
