**3. Impact of climate change on crop production**

Global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases have significantly increased relative to pre-industrial times [13, 39, 40]. As a result, greenhouse gas forcing is the main cause of the warming of the atmosphere during the past decades [14, 41, 42]. This warming is expected to substantially alter the climate system and change global food production, mainly because temperatures are predicted to increase which in turn will alter the precipitation pattern and increase the frequency of extreme events such as drought [15, 43–45]. Man-made greenhouse gas emissions as a result of industrialization and urbanization have made significant

contributions to global warming and further changes in the global climate. As a result, global temperature rose by 0.83°C from 1906 to 2010 [10]. Global warming also causes changes in precipitation levels and patterns due to higher evapotranspiration and water vapor amounts in the atmosphere with several implications for the global hydrological cycle [16, 46]. As the major water consumer of the developing world and some developed countries, agriculture is one of the most vulnerable water sectors to climate change [17, 18]. Dramatic population growth, associated with reduction of productive land area and water resources, exerts extra pressure on the agricultural sector. To ensure sustainability of agriculture, studying the possible climate change impacts on this sector is essential [9, 19, 47].

Rate of plant growth and development is dependent upon the temperature surrounding the plant and each species has a specific temperature range represented by a minimum, maximum, and optimum [48–50]. The expected changes in temperature over the next 30–50 years are predicted to be in the range of 2–3°C Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change [10]. Heat waves or extreme temperature events are projected to become more intense, more frequent, and last longer than what is being currently been observed in recent years [51, 52]. Extreme temperature events may have short-term durations of a few days with temperature increases of over 5°C above the normal temperatures [53]. Extreme events occurring during the summer period would have the most dramatic impact on plant productivity. A recent review by Barlow et al. [54] on the effect of temperature extremes, frost and heat, in wheat (*Triticum aestivum* L.) revealed that frost caused sterility and abortion of formed grains while excessive heat caused reduction in grain number and reduced duration of the grain filling period. Analysis by [55] revealed that daily minimum temperatures will increase more rapidly than daily maximum temperatures leading to the increase in the daily mean temperatures and a greater likelihood of extreme events and these changes could have detrimental effects on grain yield. If these changes in temperature are expected to occur over the next 30 years then understanding the potential impacts on plant growth and development will help develop adaptation strategies to offset these impacts [56, 57].

Previous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture, using crop yield simulation models [9, 58–60].or statistical models suggest that climate change will substantially affect productivity of major staple food crops such as maize, because growth and development of crops are mainly dependent on sunlight, temperature, and water [22, 23, 61]. Climate change may modify precipitation, soil water, runoff, and may reduce crop maturation period and increase yield variability and could reduce areas suitable for the production of many crops [24, 62, 63]. Climate change might limit crop production (the amount of a crop that is harvested in a farm, region, state, or country in kilograms or tons) in many areas [64–66].

Temperature increases affect most plants, leading to crop yield reduction and complex growth responses [25, 46, 67]. Nevertheless, the impact of increasing temperatures can vary widely between crops and regions. For example, a 1°C increase in the growing period temperature may reduce wheat production by about 3–10% [68], winter wheat productions may be decreased by 5–35%, respectively, under the future warmer and drier conditions [21, 26], and corn yield may be reduced by 2.4–45.6% due to higher temperatures [27, 69]. Even if precipitation is unchanged, the crop production may decrease by 15% on average due to the reduction in crop growth period and increased water stress as the result of higher temperature and evapotranspiration (Schlenker et al. [63]; Yang et al. [16]; Khanal et al. [28]) expected precipitation reductions in arid and semiarid regions of the world, where water is already limited, can have dramatic impacts on crop production [32–35]. For example, in northwestern Turkey, winter wheat yield may decline more than 20% under future climate change because the growth periods can be shortened as a result

**59**

**Table 3.**

**Table 2.**

*Impact of climate change on other crop production.*

*Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies for Agronomic Crops*

of increased temperature, exacerbated by a reduction in precipitation [21, 29–31]. Higher reduction in wheat yield of 50% was found in Pakistan as shown in **Table 2**. In some other areas, climatic change might have positive influences on agricultural crop yield, i.e., in dry areas rainfall enhances under wet climatic warming can lead to improved crop productions like in Mexico the wheat yield would be increase by 25% in future (**Table 2**). Maize, rice, winter wheat and potato crop yield can be enhanced with increasing air temperature and rainfall in the Plain of North China [73]. In Ghana maize yield would be increase by 12% in future (**Table 2**). The impact of climate change on sugarcane and cotton is shown in **Table 3**. Higher reduction in cotton yield of 17% and sugarcane yield of 40% was found at USA (**Table 3**). However, some positive impacts of climate change on sugarcane yield were found in few countries such as Brazil and Australia (**Table 3**). The impact of climate change on coarse grain, oilseed and other miner crops such as pearl millet, sorghum and sesame are shown in **Table 1**. Huge reduction in coarse grain and other

**Crops Country/continent Yield reduction (%) References** Cotton China −5.5 [48]

Sugarcane Brazil +15 [70]; [65]

**Countries Coarse grains Oilseeds Other crops** China −22 to 2 −12 to 12 −22 to 2 Philippines −17 to −3 −10 to 4 −17 to −3 Thailand −17 to −3 −10 to 4 −17 to −3 Rest S+E Asia −17 to −3 −10 to 4 −17 to −3 Bangladesh −17 to −3 −10 to 4 −17 to −3 India −17 to −3 −15 to 4 −17 to −3 Pakistan −17 to −3 −15 to 4 −17 to −3 Rest S Asia −17 to −3 −15 to 4 −17 to −3

*Productivity shock due to climate change on rice, wheat, and coarse grains by 2030.*

USA −17 [49] Africa −7 [52] USA −9 [51] Pakistan −8 [53] Burkina Faso −13 [56] Australia −17 [59]

Switzerland −9 [71] Australia +20 [72] Africa +11 [46] USA −40 [66] Brazil −27 [65] India −30 [64]

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.82697*

#### *Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies for Agronomic Crops DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.82697*

of increased temperature, exacerbated by a reduction in precipitation [21, 29–31]. Higher reduction in wheat yield of 50% was found in Pakistan as shown in **Table 2**. In some other areas, climatic change might have positive influences on agricultural crop yield, i.e., in dry areas rainfall enhances under wet climatic warming can lead to improved crop productions like in Mexico the wheat yield would be increase by 25% in future (**Table 2**). Maize, rice, winter wheat and potato crop yield can be enhanced with increasing air temperature and rainfall in the Plain of North China [73]. In Ghana maize yield would be increase by 12% in future (**Table 2**). The impact of climate change on sugarcane and cotton is shown in **Table 3**. Higher reduction in cotton yield of 17% and sugarcane yield of 40% was found at USA (**Table 3**). However, some positive impacts of climate change on sugarcane yield were found in few countries such as Brazil and Australia (**Table 3**). The impact of climate change on coarse grain, oilseed and other miner crops such as pearl millet, sorghum and sesame are shown in **Table 1**. Huge reduction in coarse grain and other


#### **Table 2.**

*Climate Change and Agriculture*

contributions to global warming and further changes in the global climate. As a result, global temperature rose by 0.83°C from 1906 to 2010 [10]. Global warming also causes changes in precipitation levels and patterns due to higher evapotranspiration and water vapor amounts in the atmosphere with several implications for the global hydrological cycle [16, 46]. As the major water consumer of the developing world and some developed countries, agriculture is one of the most vulnerable water sectors to climate change [17, 18]. Dramatic population growth, associated with reduction of productive land area and water resources, exerts extra pressure on the agricultural sector. To ensure sustainability of agriculture, studying the possible

Rate of plant growth and development is dependent upon the temperature surrounding the plant and each species has a specific temperature range represented by a minimum, maximum, and optimum [48–50]. The expected changes in temperature over the next 30–50 years are predicted to be in the range of 2–3°C Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change [10]. Heat waves or extreme temperature events are projected to become more intense, more frequent, and last longer than what is being currently been observed in recent years [51, 52]. Extreme temperature events may have short-term durations of a few days with temperature increases of over 5°C above the normal temperatures [53]. Extreme events occurring during the summer period would have the most dramatic impact on plant productivity. A recent review by Barlow et al. [54] on the effect of temperature extremes, frost and heat, in wheat (*Triticum aestivum* L.) revealed that frost caused sterility and abortion of formed grains while excessive heat caused reduction in grain number and reduced duration of the grain filling period. Analysis by [55] revealed that daily minimum temperatures will increase more rapidly than daily maximum temperatures leading to the increase in the daily mean temperatures and a greater likelihood of extreme events and these changes could have detrimental effects on grain yield. If these changes in temperature are expected to occur over the next 30 years then understanding the potential impacts on plant growth and development will help develop adaptation strategies to offset these impacts [56, 57]. Previous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture, using crop yield simulation models [9, 58–60].or statistical models suggest that climate change will substantially affect productivity of major staple food crops such as maize, because growth and development of crops are mainly dependent on sunlight, temperature, and water [22, 23, 61]. Climate change may modify precipitation, soil water, runoff, and may reduce crop maturation period and increase yield variability and could reduce areas suitable for the production of many crops [24, 62, 63]. Climate change might limit crop production (the amount of a crop that is harvested in a farm,

climate change impacts on this sector is essential [9, 19, 47].

region, state, or country in kilograms or tons) in many areas [64–66].

Temperature increases affect most plants, leading to crop yield reduction and complex growth responses [25, 46, 67]. Nevertheless, the impact of increasing temperatures can vary widely between crops and regions. For example, a 1°C increase in the growing period temperature may reduce wheat production by about 3–10% [68], winter wheat productions may be decreased by 5–35%, respectively, under the future warmer and drier conditions [21, 26], and corn yield may be reduced by 2.4–45.6% due to higher temperatures [27, 69]. Even if precipitation is unchanged, the crop production may decrease by 15% on average due to the reduction in crop growth period and increased water stress as the result of higher temperature and evapotranspiration (Schlenker et al. [63]; Yang et al. [16]; Khanal et al. [28]) expected precipitation reductions in arid and semiarid regions of the world, where water is already limited, can have dramatic impacts on crop production [32–35]. For example, in northwestern Turkey, winter wheat yield may decline more than 20% under future climate change because the growth periods can be shortened as a result

**58**

*Impact of climate change on other crop production.*


#### **Table 3.**

*Productivity shock due to climate change on rice, wheat, and coarse grains by 2030.*

crops were found in china up to 2030. However, higher losses in oilseed crops were observed at India and Pakistan as shown in **Table 1**.
