**5. Indirect impacts of climate change on prairie agriculture**

Economics of crop production in Canada will be a joint outcome of changes within Canada and those outside the Canadian boundaries (in both the exporting and importing countries). International markets will play an important role in determining the economic impact of climate change on the Prairie Region agriculture. As most of the crops are sold in the international market place, their prices would be significantly influenced by conditions not only within Canada but also in the rest of the world. Coupled with increased export levels, these changes could have a profound impact on the economic situation in the region. Climate change would affect other parts of the world differently as shown in **Table 4**. Different areas of the world would be affected differently depending on the degree of global warming. For example, a very mild warming (say 1°C) would bring moderate increase in cereal crop yields, but a major warming (5°C or higher) would have catastrophic effects.

A further review of the changes, based on [38], suggests:

i.For US agriculture, most crops would show gains in crop yields to certain thresholds of temperature increase, which may increase their potential for exports. This is different from the impacts on crop yields in Australia, where a reduction

**127**

*Resiliency of Prairie Agriculture to Climate Change DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.87098*

Mediterranean).

1 Small glaciers in the Andes disappear completely, threatening water supplies to people.

2 Potentially some 20–30% decrease in water availability

3 In Southern Europe, serious drought occurs once in

which may increase flood risk.

4 Potentially some 30–50% decrease in water availability in Southern Africa and Mediterranean.

5 Possible disappearance of large glaciers in Himalayas,

Hard to capture by present-day models.

hundreds of millions in India.

*Highlights of possible climate change impacts on water and food in the world.*

affecting one-quarter of China's population and

in some vulnerable regions (e.g., Southern Africa and

every 10 years; 1–4 billion more people suffer water shortages, while additional 1–5 billion gain water,

**Temperature rise (°C)**

export would likely exist.

More than 5 Catastrophic effects.

*Source: [38].*

**Table 4.**

under future climate.

**6. Adaptation options under climate change**

making such adaptations may be a major constraint.

is predicted. This would somewhat reduce Canada's competition in some cereal export market, notably wheat. European countries are also expected to have a decrease in production, although results may vary from country to country. Exact details on the Argentinean situation were not found in the literature.

**Impact on water resources Impact on food**

Moderate increases in cereal yields in temperate regions.

Sharp decrease in yields in tropical regions (5–10% in

Additional 150–500 million people at risk of hunger if carbon fertilization is weak. Agricultural yields in higher latitudes likely to peak.

Agricultural yields decline by 15–35% in Africa and entire regions out of parts of

Africa).

Australia.

ii.On the developing countries scene, studies suggest a decrease in the potential production. Given that demand in many of these countries, caused primarily by population growth, would most likely increase, potential for Canada to

iii.Canada is a major exporter of grains and oilseeds (and of pulses recently). The impact on Canadian agriculture, therefore, would also result from changes in the crop production and their demand in the rest of the world

Prairie producers are highly adaptable to changing conditions. However, such adaptations are sometimes complex and often costly. Under climate change, there may exist some beneficial changes (such as higher level of pulse production, increase in the area under cultivation, and its productivity), but if the rates of these change are faster than producers have experienced, they may pose more difficulties for adaptation. For example, production of new crops may become ergonomically feasible, but whether producers would be able to adapt sufficiently or quickly enough to these new realities is somewhat uncertain. Financial requirements for

A synthesis of research on adaptation options for agriculture has identified four main categories [39]: (i) technological developments, (ii) government programs


#### **Table 4.**

*Climate Change and Agriculture*

Opportunities for agriculture may result from continued expansion of the growing season, increased heat units, and milder shorter

Adoption of new crops would change the nature of diversification of the region.

Regions would become more vulnerable to

*Sensitivity of prairie agriculture to climate change.*

of the prairies.

**Table 3.**

winters.

droughts and floods.

*Source: Adapted from [11].*

vulnerable in the future.

catastrophic effects.

increase under climate change; as projected, yields of various crops would decrease, thereby increasing the vulnerability of producers, particularly in semiarid regions

incorporated.

**Overall impacts Major impact type and/or limitations**

Agriculture could benefit from several aspects of warming climate, depending on the rate and amount of

Results of assessments are wide ranging and depend upon the climate scenarios, impact model used, scale of application, assumptions made, and how adaptation is

Region is susceptible to droughts and floods, and their frequency is expected to increase under climate change.

climate change and ability to adapt.

In addition to droughts, flooding of agricultural lands would also increase under climate change. Already, such events have occurred in various parts of the Prairie Region, affecting crop production. In Manitoba, for example, 2016/2017, the excess moisture losses accounted for 71% of total crop losses estimated at \$198.7 million

Although overall studies have been positive about impact of climate change on prairie agriculture, increased frequency of extreme events may dampen these beneficial impacts somewhat. A summary of these impacts is shown in **Table 3**. The region would have new opportunities open under the changed climate and some new crops may help the region in diversifying the regional agriculture mix. However, increased frequency of droughts and floods may make some regions more

Economics of crop production in Canada will be a joint outcome of changes within Canada and those outside the Canadian boundaries (in both the exporting and importing countries). International markets will play an important role in determining the economic impact of climate change on the Prairie Region agriculture. As most of the crops are sold in the international market place, their prices would be significantly influenced by conditions not only within Canada but also in the rest of the world. Coupled with increased export levels, these changes could have a profound impact on the economic situation in the region. Climate change would affect other parts of the world differently as shown in **Table 4**. Different areas of the world would be affected differently depending on the degree of global warming. For example, a very mild warming (say 1°C) would bring moderate increase in cereal crop yields, but a major warming (5°C or higher) would have

i.For US agriculture, most crops would show gains in crop yields to certain thresholds of temperature increase, which may increase their potential for exports. This is different from the impacts on crop yields in Australia, where a reduction

[15]. Similar estimates for other two provinces are not available.

**5. Indirect impacts of climate change on prairie agriculture**

A further review of the changes, based on [38], suggests:

**126**

*Highlights of possible climate change impacts on water and food in the world.*

is predicted. This would somewhat reduce Canada's competition in some cereal export market, notably wheat. European countries are also expected to have a decrease in production, although results may vary from country to country. Exact details on the Argentinean situation were not found in the literature.

