**1. Introduction**

Agriculture is significantly affected by temperature variability and other climatic variables (events) all over the world including Pakistan. Farmers are feeling the worst impressions of climate change and variability on produces and livings. We must ensure nutritious food for all through increasing production even up to 60% in 2050 [1], while fighting changes in climate in the world.

In such conditions, it is important for a country to make its agriculture sector efficient to ensure and enhance food security. In recent decades, high temperature has been recorded in most parts of Asia and Pacific regions. According to the global climate risk index (CRI) 2015, Pakistan is the 10th most vulnerable country to climate change with a CRI score of 31.50, 3989 million US\$ loss and 141 events during 1994–2013 [2]. The other countries are Honduras, Myanmar, Haiti, Nicaragua, Philippines, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Dominican Republic and Guatemala.

Less developed countries (LDCs) are generally more vulnerable to climate change than industrialized countries. In context to future climate change, CRI may assist as an alarm for previously current vulnerability that may further extended in regions where risky events will become more recurrent or more severe due to climate change. The Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC stressed that the risks associated with extreme weather events will further increase regularly. These risks are likely to get worse and uneven distributed in tendency.

There are two main growing seasons of crops in Pakistan, namely winter (Rabi) and summer (Kharif) season. The performance of winter season crops (wheat, chickpea, barley, sugar beet, etc.) and summer season crops (cotton, pearl millet, etc.) depends upon specific weather conditions. Each crop has its own tendency to face climate change impacts which depends on its genetic makeup. While management options (irrigation, fertilization, planting geometry and density, etc.) applied to get good yields by a farmer. The response of each crop to change in climate is different. Climate change commonly affects crops through changes in temperature and precipitation. In Pakistan, it is assessed that temperature will increase by 3°C by 2040 and 4–6°C by the end of this century. Due to this scenario, Asia can lose 50% of its wheat production [3].

Wheat, rice and maize are important cereals bearing huge population pressure in context of food demand all over the world including Pakistan. But these cereals are at more risks to climate change. The wheat and rice production may decrease up to 15 and 17%, respectively by midcentury (2040–2060) due to changes in temperature in Pakistan. It has been projected that day temperature of 2.8°C will significantly increase with 2.2°C decrease during nights by the midcentury (2040–2060) [3]. In such harsh conditions, growth and production of crops will be affected severely. The scientists must anticipate the possible solutions of climate calamities through introducing climate resilient crops and recognizing climate smarts production options for safe and secure food.

Climate resilience improvement is in common use now a day to inform crop management options. In view of current and future climate change and variability, interest among researchers to apply such technique is increasing to strengthen the climate resilience in crops of hot and dry areas [4, 5]. Climate resilience is quite resemblance to vulnerability and commonly defined as "the ability to bounce back after an external shock or stress". Resilience of a system can also be illustrated through its components including system disturbance, maintaining system & control and returning to stable state [6, 7]. Agriculture system is affected by extreme weather events associate with climate change, therefore adaptative measures are needed to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. Keeping in views, the current study was planned to adapt climate change by developing climate smart practices for sustaining the agriculture productivity.

#### **1.1 Land use and patterns**

Pakistan is rich in natural resources, with half of the total area (36 million ha) lies under agricultural. About 84% of its land is arable, while remaining 14% is permanent pasture. The country is very poor in forests reserves which are 2% of total land as compare to world average ~30%. Uncontrol deforestation is further reducing its area at the rate of 0.2–0.5% per year. The area under agricultural production systems has remained stable over the last few decades. The high cropping intensity and use of fertilizer are main components to get high production in the country. Approximately 160 kg/ha fertilizers are used in Pakistan across all cropping systems. The land holding classification showed that 43% farmers are small scale (<1 ha) as compare to 36% large scale (>2 ha) [8].

**21**

was 5300 m3

scarce in <500 m3

*Climate Smart Interventions of Small-Holder Farming Systems*

Agroecological based agricultural production systems are different in different zones in Pakistan. However, the redefining of agroecological zones in Pakistan is importantly needed in the context of changing climate. Sugarcane, rice, cotton and wheat are more dominated along the Indus River. This zone is highly productive and lies in Punjab province. Chickpea crop is usually cultivated in Thal desert region of southern Punjab. It contributes >80% of chickpea production in country. As this crop is rainfed, hence the most affected by the climate variability in the region. The rainfall patterns determine the cropping seasons in the country. These are "Kharif" (April to June), suitable for rice, sugarcane, cotton, maize, millet, mung bean, and the "Rabi" (October to December) season is suitable for wheat, barley, lentil, rapeseed, mustard and sugar beet. Tunnel farming in vegetables has got importance in the country due to high economic return. Climate variability, climate change, value chain, market monopoly and pest pressure are the main challenges to crop productivity [9].

Natural disasters and economic instability and malnutrition are main challenges

Although agriculture is the main stay to the country's economy, but still this sector is facing many challenges including population growth, rapid urbanization and reduction in water resource availability. The population of Pakistan has more than doubled in the past two decades. It is growing very fast, approximately at the rate of 2% yearly and expected to be 244 million in 2030 and 300 million in 2050. This ever-increasing population will ultimately put horrible strains on already vulner-

Industrial extension and low priority to village life are the main reasons for rapid urbanization in Pakistan. These activities seriously affect the agricultural areas by deteriorating the quality and safety of food products through harmful chemicals. The crops near these areas are often irrigated with waste water, which heavily

water availability [11]. These finite conditions are big threats to

now a day in Pakistan [4]. This

and absolute

per capita) in 2025. While a country is

Water resources are limited all over the world; availability of water and its management are main problems in Pakistan. The per capita availability of water

Pakistan. Changing climate conditions such as erratic rainfall patterns, variable

It is obvious that agriculture is significantly affected by the climate variability and climate change. The country is ranked 7th among the top ten climate vulnerable

to country food security over the past decades. Pakistan ranks 78th out of 113 countries in the global food security index. It is alarming that 60% of population is experiencing food insecurity. The average food supply of 2440 kcal/person/day in the country is yet insufficient to meet the demand [5]. In Pakistan 62% of total energy is meet through cereals (wheat > rice > maize) after milk and vegetables in terms of calories consumed. In Pakistan, 44% of household's income is spent on their food, which is higher than any other commodity. The ratio is quite higher in

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.82872*

**1.2 Food supply and security**

villages (48%) [10].

**1.3 Challenges fostering climate change**

able agricultural production system of Pakistan [10].

absorb heavy metal and become part of food chain.

temperature and humidity multiply these threats.

availability is projected to go down (800 m3

**1.4 Climate change profile of Pakistan**

in 1950, which is reduced to <1000 m3

declared water scarce if its per capita water availability is <1000 m3

Agroecological based agricultural production systems are different in different zones in Pakistan. However, the redefining of agroecological zones in Pakistan is importantly needed in the context of changing climate. Sugarcane, rice, cotton and wheat are more dominated along the Indus River. This zone is highly productive and lies in Punjab province. Chickpea crop is usually cultivated in Thal desert region of southern Punjab. It contributes >80% of chickpea production in country. As this crop is rainfed, hence the most affected by the climate variability in the region.

The rainfall patterns determine the cropping seasons in the country. These are "Kharif" (April to June), suitable for rice, sugarcane, cotton, maize, millet, mung bean, and the "Rabi" (October to December) season is suitable for wheat, barley, lentil, rapeseed, mustard and sugar beet. Tunnel farming in vegetables has got importance in the country due to high economic return. Climate variability, climate change, value chain, market monopoly and pest pressure are the main challenges to crop productivity [9].

### **1.2 Food supply and security**

*Climate Change and Agriculture*

of its wheat production [3].

tion options for safe and secure food.

**1.1 Land use and patterns**

practices for sustaining the agriculture productivity.

scale (<1 ha) as compare to 36% large scale (>2 ha) [8].

Less developed countries (LDCs) are generally more vulnerable to climate change than industrialized countries. In context to future climate change, CRI may assist as an alarm for previously current vulnerability that may further extended in regions where risky events will become more recurrent or more severe due to climate change. The Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC stressed that the risks associated with extreme weather events will further increase regularly. These risks are

There are two main growing seasons of crops in Pakistan, namely winter (Rabi) and summer (Kharif) season. The performance of winter season crops (wheat, chickpea, barley, sugar beet, etc.) and summer season crops (cotton, pearl millet, etc.) depends upon specific weather conditions. Each crop has its own tendency to face climate change impacts which depends on its genetic makeup. While management options (irrigation, fertilization, planting geometry and density, etc.) applied to get good yields by a farmer. The response of each crop to change in climate is different. Climate change commonly affects crops through changes in temperature and precipitation. In Pakistan, it is assessed that temperature will increase by 3°C by 2040 and 4–6°C by the end of this century. Due to this scenario, Asia can lose 50%

Wheat, rice and maize are important cereals bearing huge population pressure in context of food demand all over the world including Pakistan. But these cereals are at more risks to climate change. The wheat and rice production may decrease up to 15 and 17%, respectively by midcentury (2040–2060) due to changes in temperature in Pakistan. It has been projected that day temperature of 2.8°C will significantly increase with 2.2°C decrease during nights by the midcentury (2040–2060) [3]. In such harsh conditions, growth and production of crops will be affected severely. The scientists must anticipate the possible solutions of climate calamities through introducing climate resilient crops and recognizing climate smarts produc-

Climate resilience improvement is in common use now a day to inform crop management options. In view of current and future climate change and variability, interest among researchers to apply such technique is increasing to strengthen the climate resilience in crops of hot and dry areas [4, 5]. Climate resilience is quite resemblance to vulnerability and commonly defined as "the ability to bounce back after an external shock or stress". Resilience of a system can also be illustrated through its components including system disturbance, maintaining system & control and returning to stable state [6, 7]. Agriculture system is affected by extreme weather events associate with climate change, therefore adaptative measures are needed to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. Keeping in views, the current study was planned to adapt climate change by developing climate smart

Pakistan is rich in natural resources, with half of the total area (36 million ha) lies under agricultural. About 84% of its land is arable, while remaining 14% is permanent pasture. The country is very poor in forests reserves which are 2% of total land as compare to world average ~30%. Uncontrol deforestation is further reducing its area at the rate of 0.2–0.5% per year. The area under agricultural production systems has remained stable over the last few decades. The high cropping intensity and use of fertilizer are main components to get high production in the country. Approximately 160 kg/ha fertilizers are used in Pakistan across all cropping systems. The land holding classification showed that 43% farmers are small

likely to get worse and uneven distributed in tendency.

**20**

Natural disasters and economic instability and malnutrition are main challenges to country food security over the past decades. Pakistan ranks 78th out of 113 countries in the global food security index. It is alarming that 60% of population is experiencing food insecurity. The average food supply of 2440 kcal/person/day in the country is yet insufficient to meet the demand [5]. In Pakistan 62% of total energy is meet through cereals (wheat > rice > maize) after milk and vegetables in terms of calories consumed. In Pakistan, 44% of household's income is spent on their food, which is higher than any other commodity. The ratio is quite higher in villages (48%) [10].

#### **1.3 Challenges fostering climate change**

Although agriculture is the main stay to the country's economy, but still this sector is facing many challenges including population growth, rapid urbanization and reduction in water resource availability. The population of Pakistan has more than doubled in the past two decades. It is growing very fast, approximately at the rate of 2% yearly and expected to be 244 million in 2030 and 300 million in 2050. This ever-increasing population will ultimately put horrible strains on already vulnerable agricultural production system of Pakistan [10].

Industrial extension and low priority to village life are the main reasons for rapid urbanization in Pakistan. These activities seriously affect the agricultural areas by deteriorating the quality and safety of food products through harmful chemicals. The crops near these areas are often irrigated with waste water, which heavily absorb heavy metal and become part of food chain.

Water resources are limited all over the world; availability of water and its management are main problems in Pakistan. The per capita availability of water was 5300 m3 in 1950, which is reduced to <1000 m3 now a day in Pakistan [4]. This availability is projected to go down (800 m3 per capita) in 2025. While a country is declared water scarce if its per capita water availability is <1000 m3 and absolute scarce in <500 m3 water availability [11]. These finite conditions are big threats to Pakistan. Changing climate conditions such as erratic rainfall patterns, variable temperature and humidity multiply these threats.

#### **1.4 Climate change profile of Pakistan**

It is obvious that agriculture is significantly affected by the climate variability and climate change. The country is ranked 7th among the top ten climate vulnerable countries in the world in global climate risk index and have diversified geography. The stress (heat & drought) followed by devastating floods are common in the country and have contributed to low crop yields, and disturbing food chain. The main reason for climate change is reduction in rainfall in the semiarid and arid region of Pakistan. The mean temperature across the country has increased by 0.5°C during the historical period (last 30 years) [4].

The projections show an increase of 1.4–3.7°C by mid-century in Pakistan. The temperature is expected more increase in winter than summer in Pakistan. Projections for rainfall have some unclear results due to uncertainties in performance of climate models; however, the trends are decreasing rainfall in future. The increase in temperature altered the phenology of crop i.e. leaf development, anthesis, harvest, fruit production and in asynchrony between anthesis and pollinators [7]. The rise in temperature also resulted in high respiration rates, reduction in pollen germination, shorter grain filling period, lesser biomass production and low yields. Pre and post flowering heat waves at 35°C led to yield loss in wheat, barley and triticale. High temperature above 35°C in combination with high humidity and low wind speed caused a 4°C increase in temperature, resulting in floret sterility in cereals [12].

In view of above, we must adapt such interventions which may create resilience in agricultural production systems to combat the climate variability and long-term climate change in the country.

#### **2. Climate smart interventions**

Global food production could be doubled by 2050 to contest the population and income growth in Asia and Africa. Pearl millet, sorghum are the important component of global food security in both continents. Owing to challenging anxieties for land, water, labor and capital, there is need to improve crop production per unit of land and water, as these resources are dwindling. Keeping in view the condition, sustainable increase in agricultural productivity is vital to the future of food security of Pakistan. Practices to adapt agriculture to climatic risks, take time to root and become effective for each. In such cases, approaches that enhance climate smart agriculture are the most apt starting point for sustainable agriculture. Climate smart intervention approaches are derived from the CSA-climate smart agriculture (**Figure 1**). CSA is usually defined as the "the agriculture that agriculture that sustainably increases productivity, enhances resilience (adaptation), reduces or removes greenhouse gases where possible and enhances achievement of national food security and development goals [1]. CSA aims to strengthen livelihoods and food security, especially of smallholders, by improving the management and use of natural resources and adopting appropriate methods and technologies for the production, processing and marketing of agricultural goods. The agricultural productivity, adaptations and mitigations are the main pillars of CSA.

#### **2.1 Adaptations through crop modeling interventions**

Crops models have capability to frame adaptation packages with in no time as a strategy for further implementation in the fields. However, experimentation through field setting is time consuming and utilize much resources unless the results are applicable or not. Climatic adaptations deal with effective investments/ changes in technologies/policies in response to future climate change. While non-climatic adaptations focus on agronomic management options. Crop model frame comprehensive, cost effective and reliable adaptation packages by changing

**23**

**Figure 1.**

*Climate smart interventions in agriculture sectors.*

*Climate Smart Interventions of Small-Holder Farming Systems*

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.82872*

*Climate Change and Agriculture*

cereals [12].

climate change in the country.

**2. Climate smart interventions**

**2.1 Adaptations through crop modeling interventions**

Crops models have capability to frame adaptation packages with in no time as a strategy for further implementation in the fields. However, experimentation through field setting is time consuming and utilize much resources unless the results are applicable or not. Climatic adaptations deal with effective investments/ changes in technologies/policies in response to future climate change. While non-climatic adaptations focus on agronomic management options. Crop model frame comprehensive, cost effective and reliable adaptation packages by changing

during the historical period (last 30 years) [4].

countries in the world in global climate risk index and have diversified geography. The stress (heat & drought) followed by devastating floods are common in the country and have contributed to low crop yields, and disturbing food chain. The main reason for climate change is reduction in rainfall in the semiarid and arid region of Pakistan. The mean temperature across the country has increased by 0.5°C

The projections show an increase of 1.4–3.7°C by mid-century in Pakistan. The temperature is expected more increase in winter than summer in Pakistan. Projections for rainfall have some unclear results due to uncertainties in performance of climate models; however, the trends are decreasing rainfall in future. The increase in temperature altered the phenology of crop i.e. leaf development, anthesis, harvest, fruit production and in asynchrony between anthesis and pollinators [7]. The rise in temperature also resulted in high respiration rates, reduction in pollen germination, shorter grain filling period, lesser biomass production and low yields. Pre and post flowering heat waves at 35°C led to yield loss in wheat, barley and triticale. High temperature above 35°C in combination with high humidity and low wind speed caused a 4°C increase in temperature, resulting in floret sterility in

In view of above, we must adapt such interventions which may create resilience in agricultural production systems to combat the climate variability and long-term

Global food production could be doubled by 2050 to contest the population and income growth in Asia and Africa. Pearl millet, sorghum are the important component of global food security in both continents. Owing to challenging anxieties for land, water, labor and capital, there is need to improve crop production per unit of land and water, as these resources are dwindling. Keeping in view the condition, sustainable increase in agricultural productivity is vital to the future of food security of Pakistan. Practices to adapt agriculture to climatic risks, take time to root and become effective for each. In such cases, approaches that enhance climate smart agriculture are the most apt starting point for sustainable agriculture. Climate smart intervention approaches are derived from the CSA-climate smart agriculture (**Figure 1**). CSA is usually defined as the "the agriculture that agriculture that sustainably increases productivity, enhances resilience (adaptation), reduces or removes greenhouse gases where possible and enhances achievement of national food security and development goals [1]. CSA aims to strengthen livelihoods and food security, especially of smallholders, by improving the management and use of natural resources and adopting appropriate methods and technologies for the production, processing and marketing of agricultural goods. The agricultural productivity, adaptations and mitigations are the main pillars of CSA.

**22**

**Figure 1.**

*Climate smart interventions in agriculture sectors.*

the planting time, fertilizer dose, planting geometry, cultivar/hybrid and residue management. Increasing number of grains and crop growth rate, re-fitting crop season length by changing growing degree days (GDD) to anthesis and maturity, adjusting grain filling period, decreasing root length of crop are important elements of adaptations in crop model configuration. These elements of adaptations give sound genetic concepts as an important intervention in designing cultivar [4]. Various crop models are being used in improving natural resources to evaluate the impact of future potential climate on crop production [5]. Crop simulation models are appropriate tools for the assessment of crop production options for an environment, including inorganic fertilization levels, plant spacing, planting times and others management options [13, 14].

Development in crop improvement through plant breeding on molecular basis is inadequate by our skill to predict phenotype of plant which based on its genotype, specifically for multifaceted traits [15, 16]. In addition to this, there has been an extended history of designing and application of crop growth and development models for prediction in crop management [17]. The use of such modeling interventions for genotype to phenotype prediction are at beginning [18, 19]. Current studies encouraged that use of crop models have considerable potential to face the genotype-phenotype prediction for application in plant breeding. However, the competence of existing crop models for these type of applications is uncertain [20, 21] and need improvements. The intervention of integration of simulation with plant breeding is an important aspect to design a "virtual cultivar" which can guide to breeders and further recommendation for general cultivation in area. This type of simulation can assemble a virtual variety with acclimatize characteristics for site specific cultivation. Hence, this approach can also elevate the farming to the extent of revolution and have ability to feed the world in safe and healthy style (**Figure 2**). DSSAT (crop modeling) [22], APSIM (crop modeling) are used to assist all type of stakeholders in decision making [23]. PLABSIM (marker-assisted backcrossing) [24], PLABSOFT (plant breeding) [25], QU-GENE (genotype-by-environment interaction) [26] and E-CELL (whole cell simulation) [27] are useful tools being used in computer simulation in breeding programs.
