**7. Knowledge gaps and areas for future research**

Estimates of climate change impacts on crop production are wide ranging. Of course, different studies use different assumptions about the nature of key climate variables, along with assumptions of crop type, seeding dates, fertilization, and irrigation. Many other factors, such as insects, diseases, and weeds, would also change because of climate change. Our knowledge of these changes is very weak. Furthermore, much of the Canadian research has concentrated on cereals and to a limited extent on oilseeds (mainly canola). Research on other oilseeds, forages, fruits, and vegetables (including potatoes) has been less extensive. This is a serious gap in our knowledge for climate change impacts on crop production.

One of the changes associated with climate change is the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Under these conditions, a situation of carbon fertilization may occur, which may increase some crop yields (particularly for plants using the C3 carbon-fixation pathway, like wheat or canola). Higher levels of atmospheric CO2 may also improve water-use efficiency. However, the picture is complex, since weeds may also be more vigorous under a carbon-enriched atmosphere. Warmer and longer growing seasons could be positive for crop growth and yield. However, very little research has been done in the context of the Prairie Region.

Livestock production would be affected by availability of forages and direct effect through feed efficiency. Grassland production is limited by moisture supply. Although a drier climate would suggest declining production and grazing capacity, actual changes in grassland production are likely to be modest, given a longer growing season, reduced competition from shrubs and trees, and increases in warmseason grasses that have higher water-use efficiency [50].

Northward shift of climate congenial to agricultural production has been predicted for future. However, for the Prairie Region, the exact nature of this change is not known. Furthermore, to what extent this change would translate into profitable agricultural production has yet to be researched.

#### *Climate Change and Agriculture*

Most past studies have taken into account effect of a change in temperature and total precipitation. No study was found that had included the effects of changes in the distribution of precipitation or in the form of precipitation (snow vs. rain). Other changes induced by climate change, such as pollination, heat stress days, and asymmetry in day and night temperatures, were also not included in these studies.

A study considering all of these factors together in an integrated framework is needed. This study must cover all regions of Canada and employ comparable set of assumptions with respect to climate change and related factors. There is a need for an integrated bio-physical-socio-economic assessment of climate change impacts for all regions of the prairies. Scope of the investigation needs to be national, regional, and international in nature since all these factors would shape the nature of impacts under the changed climate and the adaptation measures for prairie agriculture.

On the international aspect of climate change impacts, very few studies (since the 2005 study by [51]) were found that have reported implications of these changes in production and demand in various parts of the world and/or on trade flows. There hasn't been an assessment of impacts of these changes for the exports of agricultural products from Canada. There is a need to examine the potential for Canadian exports and imports of various crops under the changed demand and supply conditions around the world induced by climate change.

For purposes of implementing adaptations to climate change in agriculture, there is a need to understand the relationship between potential adaptation options and existing farm-level and government decision-making processes and risk management frameworks better. The relationships that determine technology development are somewhat unclear and more research is needed to understand these factors. Historically, federal and provincial governments have responded to drought with safety net programs to offset negative socioeconomic impacts [52] and, more recently, through development of drought management plans. More intense and longer droughts will be expensive challenges to safety net programs. Soil conservation is a prime example of a 'no regrets' strategy, since preventing soil loss is beneficial whether or not impacts of climate change occur exactly as projected. The Permanent Cover Program, administered by the Government of Canada, has reduced sensitivity to climate over a large area. The move in recent decades to more efficient irrigation techniques has dramatically increased on-farm irrigation efficiencies. However, the continued loss of water from irrigation reservoirs and open channel delivery systems due to evaporation, leakage, and other factors indicates the need for further improvement in the management of limited water resources. More research is needed on appropriated adaptation measures under the frequent extreme event occurrence.

#### **8. Conclusion: resiliency of agriculture in the Prairie Region**

As a high-latitude country, warming is more pronounced in the Prairie Region, which would result in longer frost-free seasons, higher degree-days, but more frequent extreme events (droughts and floods). Alberta could benefit the most from increased summer and winter precipitation, while Saskatchewan and Manitoba would experience little change or small increases. Warmer temperatures could also mean lower energy costs for farmers, as well as benefit livestock production in the form of lower feed requirements and increased survival rates of the young animals.

Prairie farmers are highly adaptive. Past changes, such as introduction of zero tillage, reduction in summer fallow area, and introduction of new cultural practices, are all indicative of this. If climate change were slow, producers would be able

**131**

**Author details**

Surendra Kulshreshtha

*Resiliency of Prairie Agriculture to Climate Change DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.87098*

to adjust through proper adaptation measures. However, government policies have to be developed to assist producers in making these choices. The biggest threat to resiliency would be through occurrence of intense and longer drought periods. Climate change could improve soil quality by enhancing carbon sequestration through "carbon agriculture," which includes no-till farming (where you grow things year-to-year without disturbing the soil), cover crops (which help spur microbial activity in the soil), and a grazing technique, such as rotational grazing. Changes to land-use through annual crop production, perennial crops, and grazing

Warmer temperatures also mean warmer summers, which could be problematic

While there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the future of Canada's agriculture industry, one thing is clear: we are likely to see more extreme weather events and higher average temperatures. Farmers must look at environmentally friendly farming practices to adapt to the effects of climate change and stay in business,

for livestock producers who have to deal with heat-wave deaths. Reduced milk production and reproduction are other impacts in the dairy industry, as well as reduced weight gain among beef cattle. Higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and an increase in the use of pesticides and pathogens in livestock and crops can lead to increased weed growth. Under climate change, farmers may have a better choice of crops, which may lead to diversification, and thus assist in making agriculture resilient to climate change [53]. Cultural practices under the purview of climate-smart agriculture could also transform and orient agricultural systems to

lands could all contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

resilience under the new realities of climate change [54].

thereby creating a resilient agriculture industry.

University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada

provided the original work is properly cited.

\*Address all correspondence to: suren.kulshreshtha@usask.ca

© 2019 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium,

#### *Resiliency of Prairie Agriculture to Climate Change DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.87098*

*Climate Change and Agriculture*

agriculture.

Most past studies have taken into account effect of a change in temperature and total precipitation. No study was found that had included the effects of changes in the distribution of precipitation or in the form of precipitation (snow vs. rain). Other changes induced by climate change, such as pollination, heat stress days, and asymmetry in day and night temperatures, were also not included in these studies. A study considering all of these factors together in an integrated framework is needed. This study must cover all regions of Canada and employ comparable set of assumptions with respect to climate change and related factors. There is a need for an integrated bio-physical-socio-economic assessment of climate change impacts for all regions of the prairies. Scope of the investigation needs to be national, regional, and international in nature since all these factors would shape the nature of impacts under the changed climate and the adaptation measures for prairie

On the international aspect of climate change impacts, very few studies (since the 2005 study by [51]) were found that have reported implications of these changes in production and demand in various parts of the world and/or on trade flows. There hasn't been an assessment of impacts of these changes for the exports of agricultural products from Canada. There is a need to examine the potential for Canadian exports and imports of various crops under the changed demand and

For purposes of implementing adaptations to climate change in agriculture, there is a need to understand the relationship between potential adaptation options and existing farm-level and government decision-making processes and risk management frameworks better. The relationships that determine technology development are somewhat unclear and more research is needed to understand these factors. Historically, federal and provincial governments have responded to drought with safety net programs to offset negative socioeconomic impacts [52] and, more recently, through development of drought management plans. More intense and longer droughts will be expensive challenges to safety net programs. Soil conservation is a prime example of a 'no regrets' strategy, since preventing soil loss is beneficial whether or not impacts of climate change occur exactly as projected. The Permanent Cover Program, administered by the Government of Canada, has reduced sensitivity to climate over a large area. The move in recent decades to more efficient irrigation techniques has dramatically increased on-farm irrigation efficiencies. However, the continued loss of water from irrigation reservoirs and open channel delivery systems due to evaporation, leakage, and other factors indicates the need for further improvement in the management of limited water resources. More research is needed on appropriated adaptation measures under the frequent

supply conditions around the world induced by climate change.

**8. Conclusion: resiliency of agriculture in the Prairie Region**

As a high-latitude country, warming is more pronounced in the Prairie Region,

which would result in longer frost-free seasons, higher degree-days, but more frequent extreme events (droughts and floods). Alberta could benefit the most from increased summer and winter precipitation, while Saskatchewan and Manitoba would experience little change or small increases. Warmer temperatures could also mean lower energy costs for farmers, as well as benefit livestock production in the form of lower feed requirements and increased survival rates of the young animals. Prairie farmers are highly adaptive. Past changes, such as introduction of zero tillage, reduction in summer fallow area, and introduction of new cultural practices, are all indicative of this. If climate change were slow, producers would be able

**130**

extreme event occurrence.

to adjust through proper adaptation measures. However, government policies have to be developed to assist producers in making these choices. The biggest threat to resiliency would be through occurrence of intense and longer drought periods.

Climate change could improve soil quality by enhancing carbon sequestration through "carbon agriculture," which includes no-till farming (where you grow things year-to-year without disturbing the soil), cover crops (which help spur microbial activity in the soil), and a grazing technique, such as rotational grazing. Changes to land-use through annual crop production, perennial crops, and grazing lands could all contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Warmer temperatures also mean warmer summers, which could be problematic for livestock producers who have to deal with heat-wave deaths. Reduced milk production and reproduction are other impacts in the dairy industry, as well as reduced weight gain among beef cattle. Higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and an increase in the use of pesticides and pathogens in livestock and crops can lead to increased weed growth. Under climate change, farmers may have a better choice of crops, which may lead to diversification, and thus assist in making agriculture resilient to climate change [53]. Cultural practices under the purview of climate-smart agriculture could also transform and orient agricultural systems to resilience under the new realities of climate change [54].

While there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the future of Canada's agriculture industry, one thing is clear: we are likely to see more extreme weather events and higher average temperatures. Farmers must look at environmentally friendly farming practices to adapt to the effects of climate change and stay in business, thereby creating a resilient agriculture industry.
