**4. Conclusion**

*Agronomy - Climate Change and Food Security*

**3.4 Results based on the climate parameters**

Sunflower cultivation is not widespread in the Southeastern Anatolia region, and yield values are very low compared to those of the other regions. Nevertheless, the estimation results of Diyarbakır suggested that there would be increases in yield in 2016–2040 and 2041–2070. In the latter period, excessive increases in temperatures are expected to negatively affect yield, as is the case for the Mediterranean

The following results are identified based on the climate parameters:

• The increase in average temperature generally contributes positively to

• The average number of days with a minimum temperature ≤−5°C will not have a negative effect; however, any increase in the number of days would have a

• Limited increases in the number of days with a maximum temperature >35°C would have a positive effect on yield; however, excessive increases in those numbers would have a negative effect on yield, especially during 2041–2070

Because the average predictions for sunshine duration and total precipitation do not show significant province-based changes during all periods compared to that in 1985–2014, it can be suggested that they will not have negative effects on sunflower yield in the future periods; however, the rainfall parameter that was discussed in the study represents total for the growing season. Meteorological disasters, such as heavy rainfall and flooding, were excluded from the evaluations. As stated in the future climate projections, rather than increases in total rainfall, there are expected irregularities in the distribution of precipitation and meteorological disasters; therefore, it should be taken into consideration that precipitation parameter can

The results of the study showed that climate factors are not the sole determinant of sunflower yield but do have significant effects on production. According to the results of the analysis, it is concluded that especially temperature and humidity

The yield estimations conducted with using the HadGEM2-ES global model and 20-km-resolution climate projections based on the RCP8.5 scenario indicate, regions in which sunflowers are cultivated will be affected by future climate changes. When regional comparisons were made in terms of sunflower cultivation based on climate changes, the Marmara and Aegean regions were found to be more sensitive to those changes. In terms of sunflower cultivation, decreases in yields in Konya and Aksaray in Central Anatolia were observed, whereas increases were predicted in other provinces within the same region. Similarly, in the study which examined the possible effects of climate change on oilseed cultivation in TR71 region, it was stated that temperature increases would increase water demand and

• Decreases in average humidity and the number of days with an average humidity >70% are expected to have a positive effect on yield.

*3.3.6 Southeastern Anatolia region*

negative effect on yield.

have negative effect on yield in this way.

disease probability and decrease in yield [7].

parameters have a significant effect on sunflower yield.

and 2071–2099.

region.

yield.

**32**

In this study, a relationship between climate and yield was evaluated in areas in Turkey with intensive sunflower (oil type) production, and projections for changes in yield related to climate change were statistically analyzed. According to yield estimation projections, decreases are expected especially in the second half of the century. In the provinces of Tekirdağ and Konya, where intensive sunflower cultivation is conducted, the expectations of decreases in all future periods are remarkable. The results of this study can be compared with the yield projections using dynamic methods (crop simulation models), and the differences between the two methods can be determined. In addition, these results can be useful for determining the regions that should be encouraged in future product planning at the regional or national level, which can be conducted by taking into consideration the predicted changes in climate and sunflower yields.
