**1. Introduction**

Sunflower (*Helianthus annuus* L.) cultivation began after World War II after immigrants brought the plant to the Thrace region in Turkey. Thanks to the plant is drought resistant, sunflowers have a wide adaptability to climate changes and have become the main raw material used as a source of vegetable oil in Turkey.

According to TURKSTAT data, from 2004 to 2018, both cultivation area and yield in sunflower production have increased. During this period, the cultivated areas increased approximately by 32.4%, while the yield increased by 56.5%. The production volume also increased by 108.1% [1]. According to 2018 production data, sunflower (oil type) cultivation has produced 1.8 MT on 649 kha. The mean yield was 277 kg/Da; however, because of the increase in the population of Turkey and changes in dietary habits, sunflower production cannot meet domestic consumption. According to the product balance reports published by TURKSTAT, as of 2018, the domestic sufficiency ratio of sunflowers was 64.3% [2], which suggests that the oilseed production and vegetable oil sectors rely heavily on foreign sources.

Because of its ability to adapt to drought conditions, most of the sunflowers are cultivated under rainfed conditions. According to 2018 data, 64% of sunflower (oil type) is produced under rainfed agricultural conditions, whereas 36% are produced under irrigated agricultural conditions. Given that most production is based on rainfed farming conditions, the crop tends to be sensitive to changes in climate; therefore, serious differences have been observed in production volume and yield over several years. The 2007–2008 drought in Turkey caused significant losses in sunflower yield in addition to that in many other crops. Sunflower (oil type) production in 2007 decreased by 23.8% compared to that in the previous year.

It is inevitable that sunflower production, which is directly affected by climate change factors, will also be affected by the predicted climate changes. According to the climate change reports published by Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS), expected changes in rainfall and precipitation regime are predicted with increases in temperatures. For 2016–2099 and based on climate projections, the average temperature is expected to increase by 1.5–3.7°C. The total annual precipitation is expected to regionally decrease; however, in general, changes in precipitation balance during the year have been projected [3, 4].

Turkey is located within an area sensitive to climate change. Climate change in Turkey would inevitably affect the country's agriculture, and numerous studies have been conducted to determine these impacts [5–10].

The aim of this study was to determine the possible effects of climate change on sunflower (*Helianthus annuus* L.) yield, which would continue to have increasing importance in terms of Turkey's agriculture and economics.

### **2. Materials and methods**

#### **2.1 Material**

#### *2.1.1 Sunflower production*

In the current study, TURKSTAT yield data on 29 provinces (Adana, Afyon, Aksaray, Amasya, Ankara, Aydın, Balıkesir, Bilecik, Bursa, Çanakkale, Çorum, Diyarbakır, Edirne, Eskişehir, İstanbul, İzmir, Karaman, Kayseri, Kırklareli, Kırşehir, Kocaeli, Konya, Kütahya, Osmaniye, Sakarya, Samsun, Tekirdağ, Tokat, and Uşak) in which there is intensive sunflower production were discussed (**Figure 1**).

To best determine the relationship between climate factors and yield, 1985–2014 (30 years) were considered and analyzed.

#### *2.1.2 Meteorological parameters*

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) acknowledges that to evaluate the climate characteristics of a region, it is necessary to consider those characteristics for 30 years; therefore, 30-year meteorological parameters were preferred in determining their effects on plant yield.

**27**

*Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Sunflower Yield in Turkey*

In this study, the parameters that are supposed to affect yield were selected by considering the climate demands of the crop. The selected meteorological parameters that cover province-based sunflower vegetation period data were obtained from TSMS (2015). To determine the relationship between yield and climate factors, the

• Number of days with daily minimum temperature ≤−5°C

• Number of days with daily maximum temperature >35°C

• Number of days with daily average relative humidity >70%

The most important tool in predicting the future climate is the modeling of climate [11]. Climate modeling studies have been conducted to determine the effects of climate changes that may occur in future periods. In Turkey, climate modeling studies were conducted within TSMS, and the final results were shared in 2015. In this study, the data on the selected meteorological parameters related to the 20-km-resolution climate projections were used on the basis of the report from HadGEM2-ES global model data and the RCP8.5 scenario used in "Turkey Climate Projections with New Scenario's and Climate Change (TR2015-CC)" by TSMS [3] for Turkey and the neighboring region. The RCP8.5 scenario is the scenario with the highest predictive radiation forcing and greenhouse gas concentration. In other words, RCP8.5 expresses the most pessimistic condition for the future periods.

in 2100 and continues to

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.91062*

following parameters were used:

*Studied sunflower production areas.*

**Figure 1.**

• Monthly average temperature (°C)

• Monthly average relative humidity (%)

• Monthly total sunshine duration (h)

• Monthly total precipitation (mm)

*2.1.3 HadGEM2-ES global climate model*

In this scenario, the radiative forcing reaches 8.5 w/m2

**Figure 1.** *Studied sunflower production areas.*

*Agronomy - Climate Change and Food Security*

balance during the year have been projected [3, 4].

have been conducted to determine these impacts [5–10].

importance in terms of Turkey's agriculture and economics.

sources.

the previous year.

**2. Materials and methods**

*2.1.1 Sunflower production*

(30 years) were considered and analyzed.

determining their effects on plant yield.

*2.1.2 Meteorological parameters*

**2.1 Material**

yield was 277 kg/Da; however, because of the increase in the population of Turkey and changes in dietary habits, sunflower production cannot meet domestic consumption. According to the product balance reports published by TURKSTAT, as of 2018, the domestic sufficiency ratio of sunflowers was 64.3% [2], which suggests that the oilseed production and vegetable oil sectors rely heavily on foreign

Because of its ability to adapt to drought conditions, most of the sunflowers are cultivated under rainfed conditions. According to 2018 data, 64% of sunflower (oil type) is produced under rainfed agricultural conditions, whereas 36% are produced under irrigated agricultural conditions. Given that most production is based on rainfed farming conditions, the crop tends to be sensitive to changes in climate; therefore, serious differences have been observed in production volume and yield over several years. The 2007–2008 drought in Turkey caused significant losses in sunflower yield in addition to that in many other crops. Sunflower (oil type) production in 2007 decreased by 23.8% compared to that in

It is inevitable that sunflower production, which is directly affected by climate change factors, will also be affected by the predicted climate changes. According to the climate change reports published by Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS), expected changes in rainfall and precipitation regime are predicted with increases in temperatures. For 2016–2099 and based on climate projections, the average temperature is expected to increase by 1.5–3.7°C. The total annual precipitation is expected to regionally decrease; however, in general, changes in precipitation

Turkey is located within an area sensitive to climate change. Climate change in Turkey would inevitably affect the country's agriculture, and numerous studies

The aim of this study was to determine the possible effects of climate change on sunflower (*Helianthus annuus* L.) yield, which would continue to have increasing

In the current study, TURKSTAT yield data on 29 provinces (Adana, Afyon, Aksaray, Amasya, Ankara, Aydın, Balıkesir, Bilecik, Bursa, Çanakkale, Çorum, Diyarbakır, Edirne, Eskişehir, İstanbul, İzmir, Karaman, Kayseri, Kırklareli, Kırşehir, Kocaeli, Konya, Kütahya, Osmaniye, Sakarya, Samsun, Tekirdağ, Tokat, and Uşak)

To best determine the relationship between climate factors and yield, 1985–2014

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) acknowledges that to evaluate the climate characteristics of a region, it is necessary to consider those characteristics for 30 years; therefore, 30-year meteorological parameters were preferred in

in which there is intensive sunflower production were discussed (**Figure 1**).

**26**

In this study, the parameters that are supposed to affect yield were selected by considering the climate demands of the crop. The selected meteorological parameters that cover province-based sunflower vegetation period data were obtained from TSMS (2015). To determine the relationship between yield and climate factors, the following parameters were used:

