**2. Models and scenarios**

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has demonstrated with 95% of certainty—that human beings and their activities are the leading cause of global warming, which has become evident for more than five decades due to the increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG). This will produce future changes in extreme weather and climate events throughout the planet. Therefore, the temperature and frequency of extreme events associated with precipitation, both floods and droughts, are very likely to increase progressively [3].

In consequence, a range of future climate scenarios was created in order to establish the potential influence on climate change on the planet in the short, medium, and long term. The SRES scenarios (A1, A2, B1, and B2) [4] used for the fourth assessment report (AR4) depend on a combination of future prospects for economic and technological development, and population growth. And the RCP scenarios or Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5), used for the fifth assessment report (AR5), are associated with greenhouse gas emissions measured as carbon dioxide [3]. The scenarios mentioned are briefly described in **Table 1**.

The indicated table establishes the relationship between the SRES and RCP scenarios with a possible equivalence between them, which can be used as a reference to observe the possible future changes in each of the studies mentioned in this


#### **Table 1.** *Description of climate change scenarios.*

*Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources, Indices, and Related Activities in Colombia DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.90652*


#### **Table 2.**

of the country, with different climatic and geographical conditions, some of which

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has demonstrated with 95% of certainty—that human beings and their activities are the leading cause of global warming, which has become evident for more than five decades due to the increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG). This will produce future changes in extreme weather and climate events throughout the planet. Therefore, the temperature and frequency of extreme events associated with precipitation, both floods and droughts, are very likely to increase progressively [3]. In consequence, a range of future climate scenarios was created in order to establish the potential influence on climate change on the planet in the short, medium, and long term. The SRES scenarios (A1, A2, B1, and B2) [4] used for the fourth assessment report (AR4) depend on a combination of future prospects for economic and technological development, and population growth. And the RCP scenarios or Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5), used for the fifth assessment report (AR5), are associated with greenhouse gas emissions measured as carbon dioxide [3]. The scenarios mentioned are briefly described

The indicated table establishes the relationship between the SRES and RCP scenarios with a possible equivalence between them, which can be used as a reference to observe the possible future changes in each of the studies mentioned in this

SRES A1 It is a world with rapid economic growth, where the population grows to some extent in the middle of the century and with a rapid spread of efficient new technologies [5] SRES A2 It is a self-sufficient world, with continuous population growth and economic development

SRES B1 It is a world with a rapid change in economic structures, where the population grows to

SRES B2 It is a world with a local economic, social, and environmental emphasis, with sustainable

RCP 2.6 An increase in CO2Eq emissions is expected for the year 2100 until reaching a concentration

RCP 4.5 An increase in CO2Eq emissions is expected for the year 2100 until reaching a concentration of 650 ppm, with a subsequent stabilization, which would increase temperature from 1.1 to

RCP 6.0 An increase in CO2Eq emissions is expected for the year 2100 until reaching a concentration

RCP 8.5 An increase in CO2Eq emissions is expected for the year 2100 until reaching a concentration of 1370 ppm, with subsequent growth, which would increase temperature from 2.6 to

some extent in the middle of the century and with the introduction of efficient resources

development, progressive population growth, and economic development oriented toward

of 490 ppm, with a peak prior to that year and a subsequent decrease, which would increase

of 850 ppm, with a subsequent stabilization, which would increase temperature from 1.4 to

associated with technological changes [5]

and technologies [5]

environmental protection [5]

temperature from 0.3 to 1.7°C [2]

2.6°C. It is equivalent to SRES B1 [2]

3.1°C. It is equivalent to SRES B2 [2]

4.8°C [2]

*Description of climate change scenarios.*

**Table 1.**

**74**

will be detailed throughout this chapter.

**2. Models and scenarios**

*Resources of Water*

in **Table 1**.

**Scenario Description**

*Models and scenarios according to the reviewed study.*

**Figure 1.** *Locations of the studies in the Colombian territory.*

document. Given its broad temporal spectrum, **Table 2** shows the different scenarios over different periods of time.

The studies are located in different areas of the country, with different characteristics. The map illustrated in **Figure 1** shows their exact location within Colombia.
