**2.3 Predictive models**

The predictive models utilized in this work were proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013 [10]. Within those global models used in the fifth stage of the inter-comparison of coupled models, we have chosen the predictions given by the model MIROC5 for 2050 because it has been successfully tested in neighbor countries such as Peru [11]. We have considered two scenarios: (a) RCP 4.5 that assumes an increasing trend in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) until 2040 (the most optimistic) and (b) RCP 8.5 that assumes an increasing trend in GHG concentration for the whole twenty-first century (the most pessimistic).
