**3.1 Effects of climate change on indices and climate zonification**

### *3.1.1 Uribia, La Guajira*

This study was carried out in Uribia, located in La Guajira, which corresponds to a desert area according to the Lang's Index (LI) and with little or no surplus water according to the Thornthwaite climate classification. It is an approximation of what may happen to the abovementioned classifications under climate change scenarios.

As shown in **Table 2**, this study considered two models and two scenarios. The HadGem2-ES model was the optimistic scenario for the RCP 4.5 scenario in 2050 and the GDFL-CM3 model was the pessimistic scenario for the RCP 8.5 scenario in 2070.

A hydrological balance was made both for the baseline (1976–2050) and for the previously mentioned scenarios, based on the meteorological data measured at the Nazareth station and its corresponding future change scenarios due to the influence of climate change. **Table 3** shows the annual average values for each variable considered in the water balance.

The climate change models were reviewed, obtaining an increase of 1.7°C and a 2.4% decrease in precipitation for the optimistic scenario, as well as an increase of 3.7°C and an 11% decrease in precipitation for the pessimistic scenario. This will have a direct effect on the provisional crops, as soil moisture will be reduced.

As an example, **Table 4** summarizes the changes in the variables resulting from the water balance and the implications that these changes may have on the water requirements of the corn, bean, and melon crops in the study area.


**Water layer**

**77**

Def (mm/year) Pcp (mm/year) ETo (mm/year)

ETa (mm/year)

Water Water Water *The bold values highlight the percentage change.*

**Table 4.** *Summary of water balance and* 

*requirements*

 *for the different scenarios and periods [14].*

requirements

 (mm/year)

—Melon

 223.9

 403.8

 179.9

requirements

 (mm/year)

—Bean

 195.9

 363.1

 167.2

requirements

 (mm/year)

—Corn

 257.5

 426.9

 169.4

**Baseline**

**Value Difference**

1060.6

510.2

1570.8

510.2

 446.2

 2227.7

 656.9

64

**12.5**

**65.8** **85.3** **80.3**

394.1

 170.2

356.6

 160.7

426.2

 168.7

445.2

65

**12.7**

**65.5** **82.0** **76.0**

412.5

 188.6

370.2

 174.3

433.7

 176.2

446.2

64

**12.5**

*Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources, Indices, and Related Activities in Colombia*

**68.4**

**89.0**

**84.2**

 446.2

 1781.5

 720.9 64.0

**12.5**

**41.8**

2261.3

 690.5

445.2

65

**12.7**

**44**

2317.0

 746.1

446.2

64.0

**12.5**

**47.5**

**68.0**

1816.1

 755.5

**71.2**

1870.8

 810.1

**76.4**

 **(mm) Change (%) Value Difference**

**GDFL-ESM2G**

 **(GD) 4.52050**

**GDFL-ESM2G**

 **(HD) 6.02070**

 **(mm) Change (%) Value Difference**

**GDFL-ESM2G**

 **(HE) 8.52070**

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.90652*

 **(mm) Change (%)**

**Table 3.**

*Meteorological variables of Nazareth station [6].*



## *Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources, Indices, and Related Activities in Colombia DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.90652*

document. Given its broad temporal spectrum, **Table 2** shows the different scenar-

The studies are located in different areas of the country, with different characteristics. The map illustrated in **Figure 1** shows their exact location

**3. Effects of climate change on water resources, indices, and related**

**3.1 Effects of climate change on indices and climate zonification**

This section introduces the studies carried out in different areas of the country, using different methodologies, which are explained in depth in each of the investigations. Additionally, it sets out the possible effects of climate change on the water

This study was carried out in Uribia, located in La Guajira, which corresponds to a desert area according to the Lang's Index (LI) and with little or no surplus water according to the Thornthwaite climate classification. It is an approximation of what may happen to the abovementioned classifications under climate change scenarios. As shown in **Table 2**, this study considered two models and two scenarios. The HadGem2-ES model was the optimistic scenario for the RCP 4.5 scenario in 2050 and the GDFL-CM3 model was the pessimistic scenario for the RCP 8.5 scenario

A hydrological balance was made both for the baseline (1976–2050) and for the previously mentioned scenarios, based on the meteorological data measured at the Nazareth station and its corresponding future change scenarios due to the influence of climate change. **Table 3** shows the annual average values for each variable

The climate change models were reviewed, obtaining an increase of 1.7°C and a 2.4% decrease in precipitation for the optimistic scenario, as well as an increase of 3.7°C and an 11% decrease in precipitation for the pessimistic scenario. This will have a direct effect on the provisional crops, as soil moisture will be reduced.

As an example, **Table 4** summarizes the changes in the variables resulting from the water balance and the implications that these changes may have on the water

**Variable Baseline value** Maximum temperature (°C) 32.5 Average temperature (°C) 27.3 Minimum temperature (°C) 22.0 Precipitation (mm) 510.2 Evaporation (mm) 2044.5 Evapotranspiration (mm) 1521.1

requirements of the corn, bean, and melon crops in the study area.

ios over different periods of time.

**activities in Colombia**

resources in each location.

*3.1.1 Uribia, La Guajira*

considered in the water balance.

*Meteorological variables of Nazareth station [6].*

in 2070.

**Table 3.**

**76**

within Colombia.

*Resources of Water*

Once the water balance has been carried out with the new weather conditions, it is clear that none of the classifications mentioned at the beginning of this section have changed (Lang and Thornthwaite). However, the conditions of such classification are exacerbated since there is a reduction in the Moisture Index (Im), which may have a negative implication, both ecologically and socially, due to the lower availability and access to drinking water.

This suggests that there is a growing need to investigate this area in order to develop an adequate plan that may include water harvesting projects or efficient crop irrigation systems that take into account the future demands and projected precipitation deficits, to serve as a climate change adaptation strategy.
