*Resources of Water*

Furthermore, growth projections were defined for both population and other economic activities such as livestock and industry. In this way, the supply that each of them will require in the future was established, noting that no demand for another activity is comparable with that established for the agricultural sector as shown in **Table 10**.

(IVWS), Water Retention Index (WRI), and/or the same indices calculated for the

*Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources, Indices, and Related Activities in Colombia*

Based on the average values of each index, **Table 12** shows the total values of

**Scenario IA WRI WUI IVWS** Baseline M H H M IPSL-CM5A-LR – RCP 4.5 M M VH H IPSL-CM5A-MR – RCP 4.5 M M VH H MIROC 5 – RCP 4.5 M-H M VH H IPSL-CM5A-LR – RCP 8.5 M H VH M IPSL-CM5A-MR – RCP 8.5 M M VH H MIROC 5 – RCP 8.5 M-H H VH M

*Average values of each index for the baseline and each projected scenario. Adapted from [13].*

*Spatialized values for the IPSL-CM5A-MR RCP 8.5 model for (a) water use and (b) vulnerability to water*

baseline. **Table 11** shows a brief explanation of these indices.

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.90652*

the basin.

**Table 12.**

**Figure 8.**

**87**

*shortages [13].*

Finally, the water resource status indices were established, which are a function of both the previously calculated supply and demand. This evidenced a strong increase in the Aridity Index (AI) and Water Use Index (WUI), as well as a scenario of improvement with respect to the Index of Vulnerability to Water Shortages


#### **Table 10.**

*Water demand in the scenarios selected. Adapted from [13].*


#### **Table 11.**

*Description and assessment of the calculated indices.*

*Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources, Indices, and Related Activities in Colombia DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.90652*

(IVWS), Water Retention Index (WRI), and/or the same indices calculated for the baseline. **Table 11** shows a brief explanation of these indices.

Based on the average values of each index, **Table 12** shows the total values of the basin.


#### **Table 12.**

Furthermore, growth projections were defined for both population and other economic activities such as livestock and industry. In this way, the supply that each of them will require in the future was established, noting that no demand for another activity is comparable with that established for the agricultural sector as

Finally, the water resource status indices were established, which are a function

**Domestic sector demand (m<sup>3</sup>**

**/s)**

27.55 1.579 1.790 31

26.12 1.579 1.790 30

23.42 1.579 1.790 27

27.67 1.579 1.790 31

25.84 1.579 1.790 29

23.52 1.579 1.790 27

**Industrial sector demand (m<sup>3</sup>**

**/s)**

VH: High surplus H: Surplus

M: Moderate

VH: Very high H: High M: Medium L: Low VL: Very low

VH: Very high H: High M: Medium L: Low VL: Very low

VH: Very high H: High M: Medium L: Low VL: Very low

L: Deficit

MH: Moderate to surplus

ML: Moderate to deficient

VL: Highly deficient

**Total demand (m<sup>3</sup>**

**/s)**

of both the previously calculated supply and demand. This evidenced a strong increase in the Aridity Index (AI) and Water Use Index (WUI), as well as a scenario of improvement with respect to the Index of Vulnerability to Water Shortages

Current 17.73 0.888 0.310 19

shown in **Table 10**.

*Resources of Water*

IPSL\_CM5A LR RCP 4.5

IPSL\_CM5A MR RCP 4.5

IPSL\_CM5A LR RCP 8.5

IPSL\_CM5A MR RCP 8.5

surplus [1]

[13]

**Table 11.**

**86**

MIROC5 RCP 8.5

**Table 10.**

MIROC5 RCP 4.5

**Scenario Agricultural sector**

**demand (m<sup>3</sup>**

*Water demand in the scenarios selected. Adapted from [13].*

from the flow duration curve [13]

the resource for different users [1]

*Description and assessment of the calculated indices.*

**Index Description Value**

AI It describes the degree of surplus or deficiency of precipitation to sustain ecosystems based on potential and actual evapotranspiration, qualifying it from water deficit to water

WRI It establishes the ability to retain and regulate humidity in the basin, according to a relationship between the values extracted

WUI It describes the pressure of the demand with respect to the supply

IVWS It describes the vulnerability of the water system to the shortage of

**/s)**

*Average values of each index for the baseline and each projected scenario. Adapted from [13].*

**Figure 8.**

*Spatialized values for the IPSL-CM5A-MR RCP 8.5 model for (a) water use and (b) vulnerability to water shortages [13].*

It is worth noting that these indices were calculated with a spatial distribution defined by the microbasins of the hydrological model, for each month of the year, so the research includes maps of each index such as those illustrated in **Figure 8**.

However, despite obtaining an optimistic future scenario unlike other regions of the country, this should be used with caution given the uncertainty that it entails; for example, there was an increase in the amount of monthly precipitation but a decrease in the daily average, indicating an increase in the intensities concentrated on specific days. The foregoing has a direct influence on the water retention index, which may give an unsuccessful perspective on the optimism of the scenario.

Finally, studies such as the one mentioned above may be of great interest to decision-makers, since they broaden their spectrum of possible future scenarios, in order to adopt measures that mitigate the possible impacts of climate change.
