**4.3 Prospects**

Despite efforts between 2007 and 2016 that have reduced the country's poverty rate from 34.4% to 26.8%, the absolute number of poor people has held at about 13 million (approximately 27–28% of the population) [55] partly due to the high population growth rate. Based on the Household Budget Survey of 2017/18, it seems likely that the downward trend in the poverty rate will continue despite it becoming gradual. Government efforts to expand access to social services like education, health, and water have been undermined by their declining quality. This implies that the slowing of factors that contribute most to improved GHI, and any gains in food and nutrition security in the short-term, will therefore be gradual. Real GDP growth is projected to remain in the range of 5–6% over the medium term. This outlook will depend on favorable weather conditions, the steady implementation of reforms to improve the business environment, good fiscal management, and the ability of the Government to address vulnerabilities in the financial sector. The maintenance of low inflation will be underpinned by favorable food supplies and stable global energy prices. The COVID-19 breakout may, however, complicate matters for the country's economy and food security as expected of other Countries of the EAC Region, though the fact that the country did not go into lockdown may mean that it comes off better than its neighbors.
