*Regime Switch and Effect on Per Capita Food Security Issues in South Africa DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.86931*

that as it may, the outcome is controlled by the utilization of the Enders and Siklos test approach and Monte Carlo basic qualities that additionally depend on the

LLCUL\_CAP is the threshold variable and is separated into two regimes with observations. The TAR model shows the threshold value for both regimes to be 2.09%, with the first regime consisting of 16 observations (*Zt*<sup>1</sup> < *λ*) and the second regime having 22 observations (*Zt*<sup>1</sup>>*λ*). The threshold level is negative in the analysis because arable land is a fixed asset that cannot be increased, while the South African population growth is increasing. The relationship between the threshold variables and the explanatory variables (price per ton and consumption per ton) is differentiated into the different regimes. In the first regime with 16 observations, the price per ton shows a coefficient of 0.1365 and carries a negatively related coefficient against the cultivated land/area, which means that an increase in LPRCE\_TON has the effect of decreasing LLCUL\_CAP

(per capita maize-cultivated land) with a margin of 13.7%; this is shown in **Table 1**. Consumption per ton (LCONSUPTION\_TON) also carries a negatively related coefficient of 0.8236 against the threshold variable (cultivated land) which suggests that increases in consumption per ton put downwards production pressure on cultivated land area, with a margin of 82.4%. The denoted relationship therefore resulted in 16 observations that are less than the threshold value which suggests that during the pre-1994 apartheid era, the negative relationship was sustainable and did not go past the threshold level of 2.09%; in the first regime, the LPRCE\_TON is not statistically significant with t-statistics and p-value that are above the 5% significance level, while LCONSUPTION\_TON is reported to be statistically signifi-

In the case of the second regime, both explanatory variables are statistically significant, with p-values that are below 5%. The threshold variable (cultivated land) has 22 observations that are below the threshold value indicating unsustainable per capita food security. The coefficient for both price per ton and consumption per ton is

still negatively related in the regime, with LPRCE\_TON shown as 0.265 and LCONSUPTION\_TON as 0.6907. These values suggest that an increase in

LPRCE\_TON and LCONSUPTION\_TON results in decreasing cultivated area/land of maize. The results suggest the cultivated land area of maize was not sustainable at the threshold value of 2.09% for food security and imply that the cultivated land area has diminished beyond the negative threshold value with at least 22 observations. A more descriptive observation of the result is shown by **Figure 1** for actual, fitted and residual model for the transformed data. More specifically, attention is given to the actual and fitted model in the figure. As from 1970 to 1988, the first regime is observed, while the second regime continues from 1989 to 2010, where the first regime with 16 observations shows the cultivated land remains sustainable even though it negatively slopes and decreases. However, in the second regime, as located from 1989, the behaviour changes, because the actual and fitted models show a further decline in cultivated land area beyond the threshold value at 22

The results of per capita consumption and the change in consumption trend over the period of analysis from 1970 to 2010 are indicated in **Figure 1**. The food security indicators (per capita land cultivated and per capita consumption) presented in **Figure 1** indicate the validity of food sovereignty theory with the evidence that

cant as p-values are less than 5%; this is shown in **Table 1**.

observations; this makes the second regime unsustainable.

**28**

dynamic idea of the threshold adjustment process.

**3. Results and discussion**

**3.1 TAR model results**

*Food Security in Africa*

*3.2.1 Diminishing returns and unharnessed growing population*

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.86931*

*Regime Switch and Effect on Per Capita Food Security Issues in South Africa*

involvement of household in national food security agenda.

using improved technologies for an intensified agriculture.

which is a necessity for sustainable food security.

**4. Conclusion**

**31**

The case of diminishing returns on productive resources, especially in the agricultural sector, was evident in the analysis. While this cannot be pinned to a specific factor due to the nature of the study, it suffices to say here that great attention must be paid to the environmental factors that surround agricultural resources such as land and water, most importantly in the face of the threatening global climate change. We also found that as the population grows, the per capita indicators declined. This shows that there are issues of unutilized segment of population and lays doubt on supporting systems to harness the population for productive works to avert the prediction of Thomas Malthus in South Africa as well as strengthen the

Another factor that can explain this phenomenon is the lack of or slow assimila-

The analysis showed that both tons of maize consumed and price per ton have had depressing impacts on per capita maize cultivation in both regimes. This speaks to maize price policy stability in South Africa mainly because prices for maize within the country are determined in international market. This can also be explained with the insensitivity of per capita maize cultivation to increase in consumption (demand). This can further be explained with lack of or low access to improved agricultural technologies among the growing South Africa populace

The aim of this study was to examine whether household food security situation in South Africa is regime sensitive by creating three basic food security indicators as well as validating the effect of population growth. We found that food security status in South Africa is regime insensitive because it has fallen below the threshold level in both regimes. However, the unsustainable food security observed in the apartheid era (noticed in 1987 thereabout) could be ascribed to political agitation for freedom from apartheid regime, sanctions and relocation of many white

farmers. More importantly, the results also showed that post-apartheid policies and intervention actions involving land redistribution, expanded food production and security mostly targeting poor households have achieved little impact on their targets as the indicators showed reverse dire situations even with the regime changed and the country being led by black South Africans. Again, we attribute this to lack of access to new and improved agricultural technologies, not just access to land by many small farms in South Africa. In line with the findings of this study, the dire situation of lack of access to new and improved agricultural technologies can be improved when pragmatic land reform that will provide title documents to the majority of landless South Africans is achieved. This will serve as collateral and is expected to increase access to credit that is needed to acquire improved agricultural

technologies and increase production frontiers. Another important factor is revamping access to agricultural extension services to the smallholder farmers as the case for precision agriculture increases for food security. Currently, there are

tion of improved agricultural technology to enhance per capita yield of land. Although there are few large firms producing with improved technologies, their output is crowded out by the majority of small farming households that are not

*3.2.2 Observed pressure of consumption and price of maize in both regime*

**Figure 1.** *Actual, fitted and residual models.*

growth in income and productivity captured by gross domestic products (GDP) of South Africa has not necessarily translated to a food-secured country, and at the same time, the evidences that households have not been put to their optimum productivity in agriculture, hence the declined per capita food security within the household level. The dynamics of the past era coupled with interaction between increasing population growth, lack of employment, and food prices have really affected food security status of South African households. The increase in poverty and food insecurity in South Arica has opened up debate and focussed the attention of the governments and researchers towards the development of strategies that will rediscover issues on vital production such as land ownership, natural resources renewal and conservation and holistic revamping of support systems. In a similar study, a reported decline in land cultivated of staple foods in South Africa is a result of population growth, land use changes and reduction in yields per hectare [48]. Available evidence indicates that most African nations are facing increasing rural population densities and person-to-land ratios, as well as increasing agricultural labour force amidst decreasing area under crop cultivation [49].

Global and regional per capita decline has been projected [9]. However, it was estimated that per capita cereal production in Southern Africa will increase annually by 8% till 2030. Our analysis showed that maize per capita production has had a turbulent increase in the recent past with the tendency of dropping (**Figure 1**). Climate change and substantial water scarcity intensified by anthropogenic increases in air temperature and evaporation [50]. It is also expected that rapidly growing populations and increasing temperature will place further demands on scarce water supplies [51]. Biofuels and rising demand by the global middle class will probably compete for global production, raising prices and reducing food access for rural and urban poor.

#### **3.2 Emerging themes**

We have used time series data to analyze per capita food security involving three main indicators: land utilized for cultivation of maize, price index of maize and consumption of maize during the apartheid and post-apartheid eras of South Africa. Below are some emerging themes that came out of the analysis:

*Regime Switch and Effect on Per Capita Food Security Issues in South Africa DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.86931*

#### *3.2.1 Diminishing returns and unharnessed growing population*

The case of diminishing returns on productive resources, especially in the agricultural sector, was evident in the analysis. While this cannot be pinned to a specific factor due to the nature of the study, it suffices to say here that great attention must be paid to the environmental factors that surround agricultural resources such as land and water, most importantly in the face of the threatening global climate change. We also found that as the population grows, the per capita indicators declined. This shows that there are issues of unutilized segment of population and lays doubt on supporting systems to harness the population for productive works to avert the prediction of Thomas Malthus in South Africa as well as strengthen the involvement of household in national food security agenda.

Another factor that can explain this phenomenon is the lack of or slow assimilation of improved agricultural technology to enhance per capita yield of land. Although there are few large firms producing with improved technologies, their output is crowded out by the majority of small farming households that are not using improved technologies for an intensified agriculture.

#### *3.2.2 Observed pressure of consumption and price of maize in both regime*

The analysis showed that both tons of maize consumed and price per ton have had depressing impacts on per capita maize cultivation in both regimes. This speaks to maize price policy stability in South Africa mainly because prices for maize within the country are determined in international market. This can also be explained with the insensitivity of per capita maize cultivation to increase in consumption (demand). This can further be explained with lack of or low access to improved agricultural technologies among the growing South Africa populace which is a necessity for sustainable food security.

### **4. Conclusion**

growth in income and productivity captured by gross domestic products (GDP) of South Africa has not necessarily translated to a food-secured country, and at the same time, the evidences that households have not been put to their optimum productivity in agriculture, hence the declined per capita food security within the household level. The dynamics of the past era coupled with interaction between increasing population growth, lack of employment, and food prices have really affected food security status of South African households. The increase in poverty and food insecurity in South Arica has opened up debate and focussed the attention of the governments and researchers towards the development of strategies that will rediscover issues on vital production such as land ownership, natural resources renewal and conservation and holistic revamping of support systems. In a similar study, a reported decline in land cultivated of staple foods in South Africa is a result of population growth, land use changes and reduction in yields per hectare [48]. Available evidence indicates that most African nations are facing increasing rural population densities and person-to-land ratios, as well as increasing agricultural

Global and regional per capita decline has been projected [9]. However, it was estimated that per capita cereal production in Southern Africa will increase annually by 8% till 2030. Our analysis showed that maize per capita production has had a turbulent increase in the recent past with the tendency of dropping (**Figure 1**). Climate change and substantial water scarcity intensified by anthropogenic increases in air temperature and evaporation [50]. It is also expected that rapidly growing populations and increasing temperature will place further demands on scarce water supplies [51]. Biofuels and rising demand by the global middle class will probably compete for global production, raising prices and reducing food

We have used time series data to analyze per capita food security involving three main indicators: land utilized for cultivation of maize, price index of maize and consumption of maize during the apartheid and post-apartheid eras of South Africa.

labour force amidst decreasing area under crop cultivation [49].

Below are some emerging themes that came out of the analysis:

access for rural and urban poor.

**3.2 Emerging themes**

**30**

**Figure 1.**

*Actual, fitted and residual models.*

*Food Security in Africa*

The aim of this study was to examine whether household food security situation in South Africa is regime sensitive by creating three basic food security indicators as well as validating the effect of population growth. We found that food security status in South Africa is regime insensitive because it has fallen below the threshold level in both regimes. However, the unsustainable food security observed in the apartheid era (noticed in 1987 thereabout) could be ascribed to political agitation for freedom from apartheid regime, sanctions and relocation of many white farmers. More importantly, the results also showed that post-apartheid policies and intervention actions involving land redistribution, expanded food production and security mostly targeting poor households have achieved little impact on their targets as the indicators showed reverse dire situations even with the regime changed and the country being led by black South Africans. Again, we attribute this to lack of access to new and improved agricultural technologies, not just access to land by many small farms in South Africa. In line with the findings of this study, the dire situation of lack of access to new and improved agricultural technologies can be improved when pragmatic land reform that will provide title documents to the majority of landless South Africans is achieved. This will serve as collateral and is expected to increase access to credit that is needed to acquire improved agricultural technologies and increase production frontiers. Another important factor is revamping access to agricultural extension services to the smallholder farmers as the case for precision agriculture increases for food security. Currently, there are

only few white farmers that have access to quality agricultural extension services because they can pay for them.

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*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.86931*

*Regime Switch and Effect on Per Capita Food Security Issues in South Africa*

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**33**

Paper, Rome. FAO; 2014

Furthermore, the results showed that per capita land cultivation of maize has declined steeply in the post-apartheid era compared to the apartheid era. The situation showed that South Africa will be vulnerable to shock in the international markets and increase in price. There is no other important warning on food insecurity than this going by the fact that South Africa maize price is controlled by international market. Similarly, the result showed that the country has yet tapped on its increasing population as the per capita land cultivation of the important staple food are very low. South African land policies need to be readjusted to per capita land/productive resources targeting to improve food security. The percentage change in land cultivation showed the successes of agricultural policies are not sustainable.

Declining South Africa per capita agricultural output especially that of the staple foods is an indication that the country needs to expedite capacity building and readjust its agricultural internship programme to improve South African agricultural systems and household food security. There are indications that food value chain and franchise development in South Africa have affected the consumption pattern.

In relation to the theory of population growth and the food advocacy (theory of food sovereignty) for food security within South Africa, it is obvious that the population has grown, thanks to the innovations in birth control and child development, but it has not been harnessed to better food production. On the other hand, the depressing impacts of total consumption of maize and price per tons further indicate the exposure of South Africa food system to external factors which the proponents of food sovereignty are against. We recommend that agricultural policies should employ per capita targeting, revamp agricultural support systems, engage in aggressively improved agricultural technology transfer to empower domestic production systems and insulate smallholders from harsh international trade system in order to make South Africa a real food-secured nation.
