Finding Strength by Finding Weakness: Creating Resilience in Response to Vulnerabilities

Chapter 12

Igor Sheremet

Abstract

grammars

237

1. Introduction

Multiset-Based Assessment of

Systems to Natural Hazards

subsystems of DSTS, which may stay functional after NH impact.

Keywords: resilience and vulnerability, natural hazards, sociotechnological systems, critical infrastructures, multisets, multiset grammars, unitary multiset

Modern large-scale distributed sociotechnological systems (DSTS) include anthropogenic and technogenic components, i.e., humans and various technical devices, respectively, operating in common in order to provide sufficient quality of life to humans, and this sufficiency may be defined by some threshold amounts of resources, consumed by them during some fixed period of life. These resources, in turn, must be produced and relocated from places of their production to places of their consumption by application of the aforementioned devices and their aggre-

By this, every DSTS may be represented as composition of two segments consuming and producing (both containing humans and devices)—and resource base, which provides their existence and operation. These segments are highly interconnected and intersect, because a large number of humans and devices are

Natural hazard impacts (NHI) may destroy some local elements of the aforementioned segments and resource base, and this destruction initiates multiple chain (or cascading) effects, caused by the absence or lack of resources,

gates. The last also uses specific resources, necessary for their operation.

consumers and creators of resources simultaneously.

Resilience of Sociotechnological

The chapter describes multiset-based approach to the assessment of resilience/ vulnerability of the distributed sociotechnological systems (DSTS) to natural hazards (NH). DSTS contain highly interconnected and intersected consuming and producing segments, and also resource base (RB), providing their existence and operation. NH impacts may destroy some local elements of these segments, as well as some parts of RB, thus initiating multiple chain effects, leading to negative consequences far away from the NH local strikes. To assess DSTS resilience to such impacts, multigrammatical representation of DSTS is used. A criterion of DSTS sustainability to NH, being generalization of similar criterion, known for industrial (producing) systems, is proposed. Application of this criterion to critical infrastructures is considered, as well as solution of the reverse problem, concerning
