Preface

When we interact with nature, we generally do so to gain something like space, resources, or some other advantage; and we may get just what we expect. But we may also generate risks or dangers with which we must eventually contend. Undesirable outcomes present challenges for our lives, health, or properties. Hazard management requires our awareness and understanding of the sources of risk. How is it manifested? What triggers dangerous conditions? What can be done to avoid hazards? Can we live with extreme events?

This volume includes 12 studies that address aspects of hazards from several perspectives. This research was undertaken by scholars working in diverse settings on an array of hazardous processes. The chapters are organized into four sections that reflect themes of this collection: risk assessment, hazard assessment, human responses to perceived or realized hazards, and social vulnerability and resilience. This preface introduces these themes and briefly describes the studies to highlight their connections.

In the first section, "Assessing Risk: Elucidating Extreme Events," three studies reflect the use of mathematical modeling and risk assessment to predict the dimensions and distributions of earthquakes, torrential rainstorms, and the intersections of extreme natural events and nuclear power plants. In "Assessing Seismic Hazard in Chile Using Deep Neural Networks," Plaza, Salas, and Nicolis employ machine-learning techniques, principally neural networks, to tackle the vexing problem of anticipating earthquakes. In "Strong Rainfall in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil: Synoptic Analysis and Numerical Simulation," Franchito, Gan, and Reyes Fernandez mathematically model meteorological conditions synoptically to determine the development of a torrential rainstorm that struck southwestern Brazil. And in "Natural Hazards and Nuclear Power Plant Safety," Katona asks whether the challenge of preparing nuclear facilities for the contingencies associated with an array of extreme natural events exceeds the industry's ability to plan for them.

The second section of this book, "Revealing Hazard: Imagining Exposure and Impact," contains five studies that examine the nature of the hazards generated by natural events impacting people and their built environments. Each study involves mathematical and graphical modeling of both the physical processes that yield the "natural" risks and the human processes that drive either activities that might be impacted or the use of hazardous environments. In "Estimation of Shear-wave Velocity Profiles Employing Genetic Algorithms and the Diffuse Field Approach on Microtremors Array: Implications on Liquefaction Hazard at Port of Spain, Trinidad," Salazar, Mannette, Reddock, and Ash employ genetic algorithms to estimate shear-wave velocity and examine the implications of microtremors in a coastal setting in Trinidad. In "Long-wave Generation Due to Atmosphericpressure Variation and Harbor Oscillation in Harbors of Various Shapes and Countermeasures against Meteotsunamis," Kakinuma models the meteorology of pressure patterns over the East China Sea that generate atmospheric disturbances that can be transferred to ocean surfaces. These oscillations are amplified to produce long-period sea waves, so-called "meteotsunamis" that can impact coastlines,

**II**

**Chapter 8 143**

Grasping Response: Contending with Consequences **161**

**Chapter 9 163**

**Chapter 10 185**

**Chapter 11 215**

to Vulnerabilities **235**

**Chapter 12 237**

Interview of Natural Hazards and Seismic Catastrophe Insurance Research

Finding Strength by Finding Weakness: Creating Resilience in Response

Multiset-Based Assessment of Resilience of Sociotechnological Systems

Determinants of Coping Strategies to Floods and Droughts in Multiple

Emergency Communications Network for Disaster Management

Seismic Hazard of Viaduct Transportation Infrastructure

*by Theobald Mue Nji and Roland Azibo Balgah*

*by Carlos Alberto Burguillos Fajardo*

*by Wael Zatar*

Geo-Ecological Zones

**Section 3**

in China *by Jian Zhu*

**Section 4**

to Natural Hazards *by Igor Sheremet*

such as the ports of Japan. Özel discusses the challenges of Turkey's karst landscapes and their attendant hazards from human use and occupancy in "Identification and Assessment of Hazards of Development in Gypsum Karst Regions." Zhao, Zhang, and Zhao, in "Dam Retirement and Decision Making," appraise two approaches (economics based and risk based) to evaluate decisions to retire and remove impoundments in China. They provide a case study of Heiwa Reservoir in eastcentral China to demonstrate these assessments. And in "Seismic Hazard of Viaduct Transportation Infrastructure," Zatar conducts experiments to understand the implications of the design and manufacturing of concrete forms for the stability, persistence, and failure of viaducts during strong earthquakes.

The third section, "Grasping Response: Contending with Consequences," contains three papers that describe analyses of human responses to emergencies and disasters. In "Determinants of Coping Strategies to Floods and Droughts in Multiple Geo-ecological Zones," Nji and Balgah investigate the aspects of people's lives that drive coping choices after natural disasters in Cameroon. In "Emergency Communications Network for Disaster Management," Burguillos describes a method to establish an emergency communications network for disaster conditions that may have disrupted or destroyed public and private terrestrial infrastructures. And in "Interview of Natural Hazard and Seismic Catastrophe Insurance Research in China," Zhu evaluates the prospects for the development and marketing of earthquake insurance in China, particularly considering the vulnerability of industrial structures to seismic activity.

And in the final section, "Finding Strength by Finding Weakness: Creating Resilience in Response to Vulnerabilities," is Sheremet's chapter: "Multiset-based Assessment of Resilience of Socio-technological Systems to Natural Hazards." Sheremet conceptualizes a method to evaluate the vulnerabilities of industrialeconomic systems to extreme natural events. This work, like the others that precede it in this volume, demonstrates the profound importance of understanding the ramifications of our decisions to interact with nature and extreme natural processes. We make the hazards with which we must contend.

> **John P. Tiefenbacher** Texas State University, San Marcos, Texas, USA

> > **1**

Section 1

Assessing Risk:

Elucidating Extreme

Events

Section 1
