**3. Analysis of the synoptic conditions**

**Figure 2a**–**f** show satellite images for the day 5 December 2015 at 0600 UTC, 0900 UTC, 1200 UTC, 1500 UTC, 1800 UTC and 2100 UTC, respectively. As can

**Figure 2.**

*Satellite images for day 5 December 2015 at (a) 0600 UTC, (b) 0900 UTC, (c) 1200 UTC, (d) 1500 UTC, (e) 1800 UTC, and (f) 2100 UTC (source: . (http://satellite.cptec.inpe.br/home/novoSite/index.jsp). MS indicates the position of Mato Grasso do Sul state.*

**21**

**Figure 3.**

*nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data/gfsanl).*

*Strong Rainfall in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil: Synoptic Analysis and Numerical Simulation*

noted in this figure, northwest strong winds (around 20 m s<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>

the high pressure system behind the cold front.

low level strong winds in many regions of the state.

be seen, strong convective activity started to develop in the south of Mato Grosso do Sul State during the dawn of day 5 December (**Figure 2b** and **c**). In the afternoon many convective clouds developed in most of the state (**Figure 2e** and **f**). These convective clouds were associated with the occurrence of heavy rainfall and strong wind in the region. The values of the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) [13] (**Figure 3**) indicate that the atmosphere became unstable between 0600 UTC and 1200 UTC (**Figure 3a** and **b**, respectively) remaining unstable during the afternoon (**Figure 3c**). This atmospheric instability was caused by the onset of a weak cold front, as shown in **Figure 2a** and **b** and **Figure 4a** and **b**. The presence of the cold front in the south of Mato do Grosso State provoked the change in the direction of low level winds, as can be seen in **Figure 5**. As can be

from Amazon region) were directed to the north of Argentina. As the cold front advanced, the direction of the winds over Bolivia changed towards the east and a convergence of mass was created due to the reduction of the magnitude of the strong northwest winds and the confluence with the south winds associated with

At high levels (at 350 hPa) northwest winds, which come from Amazon region, were also noted (**Figure 6**). These winds rotated in a counter-clockwise direction when they reached Bolivia. It is noted that over the Mato Grosso do Sul State a region of difluence of winds occurred during the day which was associated with convective clouds of large vertical extension. This provoked the heavy rainfall and

*Values of CAPE for day 5 December 2015 at (a) 0600 UTC, (b) 1200 UTC, and (c) 1800 UTC (source: http://*

) over Bolivia (come

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.83735*

*Strong Rainfall in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil: Synoptic Analysis and Numerical Simulation DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.83735*

be seen, strong convective activity started to develop in the south of Mato Grosso do Sul State during the dawn of day 5 December (**Figure 2b** and **c**). In the afternoon many convective clouds developed in most of the state (**Figure 2e** and **f**). These convective clouds were associated with the occurrence of heavy rainfall and strong wind in the region. The values of the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) [13] (**Figure 3**) indicate that the atmosphere became unstable between 0600 UTC and 1200 UTC (**Figure 3a** and **b**, respectively) remaining unstable during the afternoon (**Figure 3c**). This atmospheric instability was caused by the onset of a weak cold front, as shown in **Figure 2a** and **b** and **Figure 4a** and **b**.

The presence of the cold front in the south of Mato do Grosso State provoked the change in the direction of low level winds, as can be seen in **Figure 5**. As can be noted in this figure, northwest strong winds (around 20 m s<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup> ) over Bolivia (come from Amazon region) were directed to the north of Argentina. As the cold front advanced, the direction of the winds over Bolivia changed towards the east and a convergence of mass was created due to the reduction of the magnitude of the strong northwest winds and the confluence with the south winds associated with the high pressure system behind the cold front.

At high levels (at 350 hPa) northwest winds, which come from Amazon region, were also noted (**Figure 6**). These winds rotated in a counter-clockwise direction when they reached Bolivia. It is noted that over the Mato Grosso do Sul State a region of difluence of winds occurred during the day which was associated with convective clouds of large vertical extension. This provoked the heavy rainfall and low level strong winds in many regions of the state.

#### **Figure 3.**

*Values of CAPE for day 5 December 2015 at (a) 0600 UTC, (b) 1200 UTC, and (c) 1800 UTC (source: http:// nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data/gfsanl).*

*Natural Hazards - Risk, Exposure, Response, and Resilience*

analyze the WRF simulation of the storm.

**3. Analysis of the synoptic conditions**

in [10–12].

**Table 1** shows the model configuration of the present study.

long and short wave radiation, Noah Land surface scheme [6] for land surface, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) scheme [7] for planetary boundary layer, Ferrier scheme [8] for microphysics, and Janjic similarity scheme [9] for surface layer.

The use of the WRF model for studies of severe storms can be seen for example

Recently, a comparison of the results of the three operational models (WRF, Eta, BRAMS) of CPTEC was made. Tests of accuracy applied to the model results indicated that the WRF model has a better skill and computational performance (not published yet). So, in the present study a subjective (visual) method is used to

The methodology used in the present study makes part of the cooperative project INPE-Energisa Company. Particularly, the use of the high resolution WRF model to predict severe storms is unique. So, the results obtained here may contribute to a better understanding of severe storms conditions and their prediction.

**Figure 2a**–**f** show satellite images for the day 5 December 2015 at 0600 UTC, 0900 UTC, 1200 UTC, 1500 UTC, 1800 UTC and 2100 UTC, respectively. As can

*Satellite images for day 5 December 2015 at (a) 0600 UTC, (b) 0900 UTC, (c) 1200 UTC, (d) 1500 UTC, (e) 1800 UTC, and (f) 2100 UTC (source: . (http://satellite.cptec.inpe.br/home/novoSite/index.jsp). MS* 

**20**

**Figure 2.**

*indicates the position of Mato Grasso do Sul state.*

**Figure 4.**

*Sea level surface pressure at (a) 0600 UTC and (b) 1200 UTC for day 5 December 2015. The blue line indicates the position of the cold front. B refers to the position of an extratropical cyclone.*

#### **Figure 5.**

*Low level winds at 850 hPa at 0000 UTC, 0600 UTC, 1200 UTC and 1800 UTC for day 5 December 2015 (source: global forecast system, GFS).*

**23**

**4. Social impacts**

*day 5 December 2015 (source: global forecast system, GFS).*

**Figure 6.**

the damage effects in the region.

*Strong Rainfall in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil: Synoptic Analysis and Numerical Simulation*

The heavy rainfall and strong winds that occurred in the south of Mato do Grosso do Sul State on 5 December 2015 caused damage effects in the region. In the city of Campo Grande (capital of the state) the heavy rainfall persisted by 1 h and 30 min, causing threw down trees and floods in many places. In Jardim, a city at

*High level winds and divergence of mass at 200 hPa at 0000 UTC, 0600 UTC, 1200 UTC and 1800 UTC for* 

effects. Many trees fell down, inclusively over cars, and a circus tumbled due to the intense winds. After the windstorm many residences remained with lack of electric energy by almost 2 h. On 7 December around 100 domiciles retained without electric energy in some places of the city of Jardim. In the highway MS-289, between Amambai e Coronel Sapucaia (two cities of Mato Grosso do Sul State), there was an overflow of a stream let so that the vehicle traffic was interrupted. The storm provoked the interdiction of 14 cities in the south of the state. **Figure 7** illustrates

also caused harmful

270 km far from Campo Grande, the strong winds of 42 km h<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.83735*

*Strong Rainfall in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil: Synoptic Analysis and Numerical Simulation DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.83735*

**Figure 6.**

*Natural Hazards - Risk, Exposure, Response, and Resilience*

**22**

**Figure 5.**

**Figure 4.**

*(source: global forecast system, GFS).*

*Low level winds at 850 hPa at 0000 UTC, 0600 UTC, 1200 UTC and 1800 UTC for day 5 December 2015* 

*Sea level surface pressure at (a) 0600 UTC and (b) 1200 UTC for day 5 December 2015. The blue line indicates* 

*the position of the cold front. B refers to the position of an extratropical cyclone.*

*High level winds and divergence of mass at 200 hPa at 0000 UTC, 0600 UTC, 1200 UTC and 1800 UTC for day 5 December 2015 (source: global forecast system, GFS).*

### **4. Social impacts**

The heavy rainfall and strong winds that occurred in the south of Mato do Grosso do Sul State on 5 December 2015 caused damage effects in the region. In the city of Campo Grande (capital of the state) the heavy rainfall persisted by 1 h and 30 min, causing threw down trees and floods in many places. In Jardim, a city at 270 km far from Campo Grande, the strong winds of 42 km h<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup> also caused harmful effects. Many trees fell down, inclusively over cars, and a circus tumbled due to the intense winds. After the windstorm many residences remained with lack of electric energy by almost 2 h. On 7 December around 100 domiciles retained without electric energy in some places of the city of Jardim. In the highway MS-289, between Amambai e Coronel Sapucaia (two cities of Mato Grosso do Sul State), there was an overflow of a stream let so that the vehicle traffic was interrupted. The storm provoked the interdiction of 14 cities in the south of the state. **Figure 7** illustrates the damage effects in the region.

#### **Figure 7.**

*Damage effects caused by the storms on 5 December 2015 in Mato do Grosso do Sul state. Source: http://g1.globo. com/mato-grosso-do-sul/noticia/2015/12/temporal-derrubou-pontes-arvores-e-comprometeu-agua-e-luz-emjardim.html; http://g1.globo.com/mato-grosso-do-sul/noticia/2015/12/chuva-e-ventania-de-56-kmh-causamnovos-estragos-em-dourados-ms.html).*
