**3. Discussions, empirical analysis and results**

The true population value can be calculated using a confidence interval (CI) in statistics, an interval estimate, computed from the observed data [4]. The interval contains the true value of an unknown population parameter with (1 – α)% confidence which quantifies the level of confidence that the parameter lies in the interval. And the confidence level represents frequency and that are constructed from an infinite number of independent sample statistics, the proportion of those intervals that contain the true value of the parameter will be equal to the confidence level.

The study was carried out using Stata 12.1 IC software to calculate the confidence interval to understand the crude birth rate and crude mortality rate in India in six different states namely Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Dadra & Nagar Haveli the data was taken from www.data.gov.in [4] and was collected from the year 1981 to 2011.

**85**

mean = 2.03 and SE = 0.01.

*Crude birth rate and crude mortality rate in India.*

*Crude Birth Rate and Crude Mortality Rate in India: A Case of Application of Regression...*

**Crude mortality rate**

 548.2 41.2 19 24.8 2.2 683.3 37.2 15 24.66 2.22 846.4 32.5 11.4 23.87 2.16 1028.7 24.8 8.9 21.54 1.97 1210.9 21.8 7.1 17.7 1.63

**Percentage decadal variation** **Annual exponential growth rate (%)**

**Table 1** shows the decrease in crude birth rate and crude mortality rate from 1971 to 2011 with the industrial rise. The graph in **Figure 1** shows the decline in

From **Table 1**, the population mean = 865.17, SE = 2.37 with 95% CI = 860.52– 869.83 and crude birth rate mean = 31.44, SE = 0.07 and 95% CI = 31.30–31.59. The crude mortality rate mean = 12.24, SE = 12.16 showed 95% CI = 0.04–12.33. The results of percentage decadal variation 95% CI = 22.44–22.54, mean = 22.49 and SE = 0.02. The results for annual exponential growth rate were 95% CI = 2.03–2.03,

**Figure 2** displays the crude birth and death rates for six individual states in India

for the period (1971–2011). The peak crude birth rate can be seen in Dadra and Nagar Haveli with 27.7 births per thousand in urban areas. Interestingly, this State also had the lowest death rates in both urban and rural areas (**Figure 2**). The lowest crude birth rates were found in Pondicherry, where both rates were urban is 14 and rural is 13.6. There was greater variability in birth rates in both urban and rural locales than in death rates in either type of setting. The female literacy in any state shows that the crude birth rate and mortality rate is minimum (**Table 2**). Based on the census [5], the educated females take better reproductive and healthcare

crude birth rate (21.8) and crude mortality rate (7.1) in the year 2011.

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.90840*

**birth rate**

*Crude birth and mortality rate in India from the year 1971 to 2011.*

**Year Population Crude** 

**Table 1.**

**Figure 1.**


*Crude Birth Rate and Crude Mortality Rate in India: A Case of Application of Regression... DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.90840*

#### **Table 1.**

*Aging - Life Span and Life Expectancy*

in India's higher youth dependency [1].

tion for better health conditions [2].

**3. Discussions, empirical analysis and results**

was collected from the year 1981 to 2011.

in fertility decisions [3].

Golley and Toyer [1] suggested that China and India's demographic transitions timings and the implications of fertility developments were discovered using a global economic model and measures of dependency include the working overaged and working age. China's labor force to begin to diminish, whereas India will increase fertility rate faster than its present population. The population plays a significant role in defining the relative magnitudes of labor force growth to total population growth and the change in dependency ratios, with a significant impact on per capita income growth. India, the world's most populous country by 2030, and its population policy continue to be directed toward promoting fertility decline. The lower fertility reduces GDP and increases per capita income in both countries, India gains more per capita income than China per unit change in fertility, resulting

Roy and Jones [2] developed a technique for the prediction of health indicators for all the districts of India and examine the correlations between health and development. The two fundamental indicators of this research are the levels of electrification and district domestic product (DDP). The data with health metrics and the information from two night time satellite images were used to propose the models. The predicted the health indicators with less than 7–10% errors were successfully. The health metrics, like crude birth rate and maternal mortality rate were mapped for the whole country at the area level. These metrics showed very strong correlation with development indicators. In a socio-economic study, using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) satellite imagery, the observation showed a higher DDP and level of electrifica-

Maitra and Pal [3] emphasized that the estimates of birth spacing on child mortality are different when fertility selection are not considered. A comparison study of the fertility behavior of households in the Indian and the Pakistani Punjab highlighted the differential nature of institutions on demographic transition in these neighboring regions. The study involved reported birth interval and not inter-conception interval, which implies that there were some measurement errors associated with this particular variable. The miscarriages, stillbirths and also premature births were not measured for measurement. The study identifies the bivariate probit model that estimates mortality after correcting for the self-selection

The true population value can be calculated using a confidence interval (CI) in statistics, an interval estimate, computed from the observed data [4]. The interval contains the true value of an unknown population parameter with (1 – α)% confidence which quantifies the level of confidence that the parameter lies in the interval. And the confidence level represents frequency and that are constructed from an infinite number of independent sample statistics, the proportion of those intervals that contain the true value of the parameter will be equal to the confidence level. The study was carried out using Stata 12.1 IC software to calculate the confidence interval to understand the crude birth rate and crude mortality rate in India in six different states namely Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Dadra & Nagar Haveli the data was taken from www.data.gov.in [4] and

**2. Previous study**

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*Crude birth and mortality rate in India from the year 1971 to 2011.*

#### **Figure 1.**

**Table 1** shows the decrease in crude birth rate and crude mortality rate from 1971 to 2011 with the industrial rise. The graph in **Figure 1** shows the decline in crude birth rate (21.8) and crude mortality rate (7.1) in the year 2011.

From **Table 1**, the population mean = 865.17, SE = 2.37 with 95% CI = 860.52– 869.83 and crude birth rate mean = 31.44, SE = 0.07 and 95% CI = 31.30–31.59. The crude mortality rate mean = 12.24, SE = 12.16 showed 95% CI = 0.04–12.33. The results of percentage decadal variation 95% CI = 22.44–22.54, mean = 22.49 and SE = 0.02. The results for annual exponential growth rate were 95% CI = 2.03–2.03, mean = 2.03 and SE = 0.01.

**Figure 2** displays the crude birth and death rates for six individual states in India for the period (1971–2011). The peak crude birth rate can be seen in Dadra and Nagar Haveli with 27.7 births per thousand in urban areas. Interestingly, this State also had the lowest death rates in both urban and rural areas (**Figure 2**). The lowest crude birth rates were found in Pondicherry, where both rates were urban is 14 and rural is 13.6. There was greater variability in birth rates in both urban and rural locales than in death rates in either type of setting. The female literacy in any state shows that the crude birth rate and mortality rate is minimum (**Table 2**). Based on the census [5], the educated females take better reproductive and healthcare

### *Aging - Life Span and Life Expectancy*


**Table 2.**

*CI of crude birth rate and mortality rate in rural and urban (1971–2011).*

**Figure 2.**

*The graph representing crude birth rate and crude mortality rate in urban and rural.*

decisions. Further, this improves stabilization of population and better infant care with lower birth rates and infant mortality rates.

In **Figure 3**, the graph shows the highest crude birth rate in the year 1984 with 45.9 in Dadra and Nagar Haveli state and minimum in the year 2007 in Pondicherry. Similarly from **Figure 4**, the graph indicates the maximum crude mortality rate to be 17.8 in the year 1984 in Uttar Pradesh, and the minimum crude mortality rate was found thrice as 7, twice in the year 2001 and 2009 in Pondicherry and one time in Andhra Pradesh (2004).

In **Figures 5** and **6**, the graph represents the crude birth rate and crude mortality rate in rural and urban from the year 1981 to 2011. The standard error of the

**87**

**Figure 6.**

**Figure 4.**

**Figure 5.**

*Crude Birth Rate and Crude Mortality Rate in India: A Case of Application of Regression...*

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.90840*

*The graph representing crude mortality rate in six states (1981–2011).*

*The graph representing crude birth rate in rural and urban in six states (1981–2011).*

*The graph representing crude mortality rate in urban and rural in six states (1981–2011).*

*Crude Birth Rate and Crude Mortality Rate in India: A Case of Application of Regression... DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.90840*

#### **Figure 4.**

*Aging - Life Span and Life Expectancy*

**Table 2.**

**Figure 2.**

decisions. Further, this improves stabilization of population and better infant care

**Variable Mean Std. err 95% CI** Crude birth rate rural 21.31 2.25 15.50–27.12 Crude birth rate urban 19.13 2.17 13.5–24.71 Crude death rate rural 7.08 0.43 5.97–8.18 Crude death rate urban 5.18 0.49 3.90–6.46

In **Figure 3**, the graph shows the highest crude birth rate in the year 1984 with 45.9 in Dadra and Nagar Haveli state and minimum in the year 2007 in Pondicherry. Similarly from **Figure 4**, the graph indicates the maximum crude mortality rate to be 17.8 in the year 1984 in Uttar Pradesh, and the minimum crude mortality rate was found thrice as 7, twice in the year 2001 and 2009 in Pondicherry and one time in

In **Figures 5** and **6**, the graph represents the crude birth rate and crude mortality rate in rural and urban from the year 1981 to 2011. The standard error of the

with lower birth rates and infant mortality rates.

*The graph representing crude birth rate and crude mortality rate in urban and rural.*

*CI of crude birth rate and mortality rate in rural and urban (1971–2011).*

Andhra Pradesh (2004).

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**Figure 3.**

*The graph representing six states' crude birth rate.*

*The graph representing crude mortality rate in six states (1981–2011).*

**Figure 5.**

*The graph representing crude birth rate in rural and urban in six states (1981–2011).*

#### **Figure 6.**

*The graph representing crude mortality rate in urban and rural in six states (1981–2011).*

mean decreases as the size of observations increases. A small standard error implies that the sample mean is more accurate replication of the actual population mean. The crude birth rate with the least SE = 1.08 and in crude mortality rate, the least SE = 0.49. **Table 3** refers to highest crude birth rate 95% CI = 32.07–39.21 (1984) and least crude birth rate 95% CI = 20.67–25.23 (2011). Likewise, **Table 4** indicates highest crude mortality rate of 95% CI = 9.813–16.85 in 1984 and least crude mortality rate of 95% CI = 5.82–8.63 in the year 2011.

The crude mortality rate in children under the age of 5 years occurs due to preterm birth, pneumonia, neonatal sepsis, diarrhea, malaria and malnutrition. In undeveloped countries, malnutrition is the primary cause of child mortality.

In India, the highest total crude birth rate was in the year 1981 with 35.6 in rural and minimum in the year 2012 with 17.4 (urban).


#### **Table 3.**

*Mean, standard error and 95% confidence interval for crude birth rate in India, by year (1981–2011).*

**Table 4.**

**4. Demographic transition in India**

*Confidence interval, mean and standard error for crude mortality rate in India.*

impacts and India's economic level.

In India, when the country became a republic in the 1950s, it experienced a demographic transition from high birth rate and mortality rate to lower birth rate and lower mortality rate. The country revolutionized from pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. This transition brought several changes in a lower fertility rate where smaller, independent families emerged and more resources saved and invested in capital and education. More investment contributes to economic growth. This transition led to rise in socio-economic relations, health

*Crude Birth Rate and Crude Mortality Rate in India: A Case of Application of Regression...*

**Year Mean SE 95% conf. interval** 13 1.42 9.32–16.67 12.12 1.31 8.74–15.49 12.53 1.11 9.67–15.39 13.33 1.36 9.81–16.85 12.1 1.24 8.89–15.30 11.4 1.03 8.72–14.07 11.43 0.94 8.99–13.87 11.2 0.96 8.72–13.67 10.31 0.84 8.14–12.49 10 0.94 7.58–12.41 10.71 0.98 8.19–13.24 10.58 0.95 8.13–13.03 10.25 0.99 7.70–12.79 9.5 0.64 7.86–11.13 9.21 0.56 7.76–10.66 9.28 0.57 7.80–10.76 9.28 0.52 7.94–10.62 9.36 0.57 7.88–10.84 8.71 0.70 6.89–10.53 8.78 0.62 7.17–10.39 8.58 0.64 6.91–10.25 8.38 0.57 6.91–9.85 8.13 0.66 6.43–9.83 7.83 0.61 6.24–9.41 7.65 0.60 6.09–9.20 7.6 0.63 5.97–9.22 7.61 0.60 6.06–9.16 7.66 0.49 6.38–8.94 7.41 0.57 5.94–8.88 7.38 0.55 5.95–8.81 7.23 0.54 5.82–8.63

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.90840*

**Confidence interval for crude mortality rate (1981–2011)**


*Crude Birth Rate and Crude Mortality Rate in India: A Case of Application of Regression... DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.90840*

**Table 4.**

*Aging - Life Span and Life Expectancy*

ity rate of 95% CI = 5.82–8.63 in the year 2011.

and minimum in the year 2012 with 17.4 (urban).

mean decreases as the size of observations increases. A small standard error implies that the sample mean is more accurate replication of the actual population mean. The crude birth rate with the least SE = 1.08 and in crude mortality rate, the least SE = 0.49. **Table 3** refers to highest crude birth rate 95% CI = 32.07–39.21 (1984) and least crude birth rate 95% CI = 20.67–25.23 (2011). Likewise, **Table 4** indicates highest crude mortality rate of 95% CI = 9.813–16.85 in 1984 and least crude mortal-

The crude mortality rate in children under the age of 5 years occurs due to preterm birth, pneumonia, neonatal sepsis, diarrhea, malaria and malnutrition. In undeveloped countries, malnutrition is the primary cause of child mortality.

**Year Mean Standard error 95% conf. interval** 32.53 1.59 29.19–35.86 34.32 1.59 30.99–37.65 33.85 1.54 30.63–37.06 35.65 1.71 32.07–39.21 32.58 1.54 29.35–35.80 34.03 1.77 30.32–37.72 32.04 1.41 29.10–34.98 32.34 1.49 29.21–35.45 30.66 1.48 27.55–33.75 30.54 1.55 27.30–33.77 28.98 1.49 25.87–32.09 30.65 1.67 27.15–34.15 28.27 1.90 24.30–32.24 28.86 1.63 25.45–32.25 28.12 1.26 25.48–30.76 26.85 1.37 23.99–29.72 26.66 1.30 23.94–29.38 27.6 1.45 24.56–30.63 27.49 1.53 24.29–30.69 27.70 1.56 24.43–30.97 26.25 1.29 23.55–28.95 26.23 1.29 23.53–28.92 25.96 1.31 23.23–28.70 25.13 1.28 22.44–27.81 24.90 1.35 22.08–27.73 24.30 1.33 21.52–27.09 23.83 1.34 21.02–26.62 23.81 1.17 21.37–26.24 23.68 1.14 21.31–26.05 23.45 1.08 21.19–25.71 22.95 1.09 20.67–25.23

*Mean, standard error and 95% confidence interval for crude birth rate in India, by year (1981–2011).*

In India, the highest total crude birth rate was in the year 1981 with 35.6 in rural

**Table 3.**

*Confidence interval, mean and standard error for crude mortality rate in India.*
