**6. Vulnerability of eastern Africa region to climate change**

According to Adger [25], vulnerability is the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt. There are theories and conditions that subject a person or community into the state of vulnerability. Among the conditions that best explain this situation is entitlement failure [14]. Thus, the poor or weak people develop more vulnerability than rich people. Despite of being understandable, the challenges for vulnerability research are to develop robust and credible measures, to incorporate diverse methods that include perceptions of risk and vulnerability, and to incorporate governance research on the mechanisms that mediate vulnerability and promote adaptive action and resilience [25, 26].

We explore the state of vulnerability in the Eastern African region in order to propose synergies between vulnerability and on resilience of social ecological systems. This review will not only show the real contexts of the area but also optimize the adoption of suitable mitigation measures that would serve the purpose of both regional and international level. It provides evidence-based investigation to inform the discussion in the international arena and more particularly in the Conference of

#### **Figure 2.**

*Climate variability, vulnerability and adaptation, and its livelihood outcome. Source: Modified from the Sustainable Livelihood Framework [27].*

the Parties on climate change and the subsequent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [1–3]. **Figure 2** explores the overall concept of vulnerability to reduce it for best outcomes [27].

However, the measurement of vulnerability can be complicated by the fact that it emerges through complex interactions between biophysical and social dimensions across multiple scales, all of which vary across time, location, the nature of biophysical stressors, and outcomes of interest [28]. Therefore a combined theoretical and practical approach should be adopted in doing the same.

Further conceptualization reveals that in most developing countries, there have been factors that influence vulnerability for decades. These factors need to be

**41**

the growing season.

*A Novel Assessment of the Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation of Climate Change in Eastern…*

controlled in order to increase the resilience of the farmers, thus increasing their

takes over 70% of the population has become a risk business in the area [3].

The situation has destroyed the production systems; thus, even the droughtresistant crops cannot further withstand [31]. Thus far, food shortage and poverty have increased in the region [24, 32–34]. This has mainly happened due to crop failure. In addition, thousands of animals have died due to drought. This has been more pronounced in Tanzania, Kenya, and Ethiopia which experience semiarid climates [35]. The vulnerability has been more pronounced during critical areas due to limited livelihood options [36]. For example, the government can have capacity to help a bearable number of people, however, if the number of people elapses beyond its controlling capacity, it is obviously that the excess number of people will

Despite the arguments of some pessimists and lobbyists on climate change, it is obvious that climate impacts and vulnerability have ruined the livelihoods of many people [6]. This has been more pronounced to the already affected agroecosystems [4, 24, 31, 34, 37]. In most cases, climate impacts have been measured in different contexts. Farmers do so during crop growing season, while livestock keepers measure it during drought season when pasture and water for their herds are inadequate. Various studies have modeled climate trends to depict the general

Further, Mkonda [38] analyzed the temporal wet spells in Tanzania during the growing season and found that in most years there were seven to nine wet spells in January and March, while below seven wet spells were recorded during February. Recently, the study by Ghebrezgabher et al. [8] had almost similar variation of wet spells when it analyzed the dry and wet condition in the Horn of Africa (Eastern Africa). Similar trend was observed by Stern et al. [39] some decades back. These wet spells are always high in the equatorial climatic region. However, despite the ubiquitous of wet spells in these areas, there have been insignificant impacts to crop production if they are highly unevenly distributed in a particular month because prolonged dry spells may take over to affect crop production. Therefore, this scenario can be curbed by improving the forecasting methods to determine the real climatic situation. The study by Kahsay and Hansen [9] observed that temperature and rainfall have been varying over space and time in the region (Eastern Africa). It revealed that during spring, the mean rainfall has been kept at 266 mm, while during fall and summer, it has been kept at 201 and 133 mm, respectively. On the other hand, the mean temperature for spring, fall, and summer has been kept at 24.58, 24.02, and 24.28°C, respectively. Our review implies that there has been a modest association between the variation of rainfall and temperature. Therefore, the alteration of these climate variables during the growing seasons has been bringing significant impacts to agricultural output while being largely irrelevant outside

Crane et al. [28] coined that for the vulnerability to be well assessed, there is a need to assess the systems of vulnerability, how this system is vulnerable, what are the causes of vulnerability, how vulnerability distributed in the system, and what are the causes of this distribution. Therefore, on the basis of the study area, it is confirmed by various authors that poverty, weak agrosystems, weak technology, inadequate knowledge, and over dependency on rain-fed agriculture are among the key reasons for increased vulnerability [5, 12, 25, 29, 30]. Rain-fed agriculture that

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.86850*

be helpless and thus, conceding intensive impacts.

**7. Impacts of climate change**

alterations [5, 12, 22, 32].

capability in the production process.

*A Novel Assessment of the Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation of Climate Change in Eastern… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.86850*

controlled in order to increase the resilience of the farmers, thus increasing their capability in the production process.

Crane et al. [28] coined that for the vulnerability to be well assessed, there is a need to assess the systems of vulnerability, how this system is vulnerable, what are the causes of vulnerability, how vulnerability distributed in the system, and what are the causes of this distribution. Therefore, on the basis of the study area, it is confirmed by various authors that poverty, weak agrosystems, weak technology, inadequate knowledge, and over dependency on rain-fed agriculture are among the key reasons for increased vulnerability [5, 12, 25, 29, 30]. Rain-fed agriculture that takes over 70% of the population has become a risk business in the area [3].

The situation has destroyed the production systems; thus, even the droughtresistant crops cannot further withstand [31]. Thus far, food shortage and poverty have increased in the region [24, 32–34]. This has mainly happened due to crop failure. In addition, thousands of animals have died due to drought. This has been more pronounced in Tanzania, Kenya, and Ethiopia which experience semiarid climates [35]. The vulnerability has been more pronounced during critical areas due to limited livelihood options [36]. For example, the government can have capacity to help a bearable number of people, however, if the number of people elapses beyond its controlling capacity, it is obviously that the excess number of people will be helpless and thus, conceding intensive impacts.

## **7. Impacts of climate change**

*Rainfall - Extremes, Distribution and Properties*

**40**

**Figure 2.**

ity to reduce it for best outcomes [27].

*Sustainable Livelihood Framework [27].*

and practical approach should be adopted in doing the same.

the Parties on climate change and the subsequent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [1–3]. **Figure 2** explores the overall concept of vulnerabil-

*Climate variability, vulnerability and adaptation, and its livelihood outcome. Source: Modified from the* 

However, the measurement of vulnerability can be complicated by the fact that it emerges through complex interactions between biophysical and social dimensions across multiple scales, all of which vary across time, location, the nature of biophysical stressors, and outcomes of interest [28]. Therefore a combined theoretical

Further conceptualization reveals that in most developing countries, there have been factors that influence vulnerability for decades. These factors need to be

Despite the arguments of some pessimists and lobbyists on climate change, it is obvious that climate impacts and vulnerability have ruined the livelihoods of many people [6]. This has been more pronounced to the already affected agroecosystems [4, 24, 31, 34, 37]. In most cases, climate impacts have been measured in different contexts. Farmers do so during crop growing season, while livestock keepers measure it during drought season when pasture and water for their herds are inadequate. Various studies have modeled climate trends to depict the general alterations [5, 12, 22, 32].

Further, Mkonda [38] analyzed the temporal wet spells in Tanzania during the growing season and found that in most years there were seven to nine wet spells in January and March, while below seven wet spells were recorded during February. Recently, the study by Ghebrezgabher et al. [8] had almost similar variation of wet spells when it analyzed the dry and wet condition in the Horn of Africa (Eastern Africa). Similar trend was observed by Stern et al. [39] some decades back. These wet spells are always high in the equatorial climatic region. However, despite the ubiquitous of wet spells in these areas, there have been insignificant impacts to crop production if they are highly unevenly distributed in a particular month because prolonged dry spells may take over to affect crop production. Therefore, this scenario can be curbed by improving the forecasting methods to determine the real climatic situation.

The study by Kahsay and Hansen [9] observed that temperature and rainfall have been varying over space and time in the region (Eastern Africa). It revealed that during spring, the mean rainfall has been kept at 266 mm, while during fall and summer, it has been kept at 201 and 133 mm, respectively. On the other hand, the mean temperature for spring, fall, and summer has been kept at 24.58, 24.02, and 24.28°C, respectively. Our review implies that there has been a modest association between the variation of rainfall and temperature. Therefore, the alteration of these climate variables during the growing seasons has been bringing significant impacts to agricultural output while being largely irrelevant outside the growing season.

Although the impact of climate change can affect both the managed and unmanaged ecosystems and the livelihood of the majority, it rather hits most the vulnerable people as soundly stipulated in Section 4 of this paper. Livestock keepers lack optional livelihoods when thousands of their cattle die due to extreme drought [16, 18]. In due course, the climate affects livestock in a number of ways; an increase in heat affects the health of animals and reduces their food intake. The situation also affects the dairy and meat and production as a result from impacts on grass and rangeland [40]. Apart from that, the situation deprives animals from access to plenty of water due to drought [40, 41]. However, pastoralist with some financial muscles shift from one place to another using transport systems while those with weak economy were severely affected with their herds [14].

For instance, since 2000, Tanzania has experienced massive movements of pastoral communities (especially the Maasai) with their herds in thousands. In most cases the movement has been from areas with low potentials, e.g., semiarid, to high-potential zones, e.g., in floodplains [31], in search for pastures and water. This has been an adaptation strategy of these societies to get rid from extreme droughts. However, this has not been a sustainable option since they have further been degrading the area of destination and, thus, limiting more livelihood options and increasing poverty [28, 41]. IPCC reports have already specified that poor people with less socioeconomic instruments have been the most victims of climate impacts [1, 2]. The study by Agrawala et al. [29] that was conducted in Tanzania had similar observations. This, therefore, shows the degree of magnitudes of climate impacts to vulnerable livelihoods. Despite the direct impacts of climate to various livelihoods and ecosystems, there is a wide range of indirect impacts that also hits the same ecosystems and living organisms. And this poses accumulative impacts to the same.

### **8. Existing adaptation strategies**

According to UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, adaptation and mitigation are very important practices for the sustainability of the planet. Despite the fact that these two practices are credible in both developed and developing countries, IPCC reports [1–3] have affirmed that developing countries, especially the sub-Saharan Africa, need to devote more time and resources to significantly embody these practices into all sectors that determine the peoples' livelihoods. Eastern Africa is among the regions with rapid population increase (growth rate 3%); thus, the demands of food and other environmental resources are increasing rapidly [42]. So far, if the increasing food demand due to human population growth is not well curbed, more degradation or the misuse of environmental assets and natural resources can be enormous. This situation has progressively compelled the region to adapt and cope with the changing climate to meet the necessary environmental resources even though this has been done with little success.

Various studies such as Alqudah et al. [43], Burney and Naylor [44], Cole [45], Eriksen et al. [46], Kilembe et al. [47], Lobell and Gourdji [48], and Rickards and Howden [49] have observed that the existing adaptation practices in Eastern Africa have widely been incremental, or transformational and have been basing on the severity of the climate impacts. Incremental adaptation refers to the fine-tuning of the existing system to minimize impacts, which includes changing planting dates, crop varieties, plant density, and nutrient and water management practices, while transformational involves the opting of alternative income generation methods [49, 50].

The increment adaptation has been the most important aspect as many people remain in agricultural production as their major livelihoods. These adaptations

**43**

majority.

*A Novel Assessment of the Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation of Climate Change in Eastern…*

have significantly involved irrigation (i.e., groundwater or from rainwater harvest), fertilization, and adoption of drought and tolerant seeds. This is dominant in the countries like Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi where agriculture contributes over 50% of the GDP [10]. Even in countries like Kenya and Ethiopia where agriculture contributes to less than 30% of the GDP, adoption of suitable adaptation

**9. Potential trajectories to improve adaptation and mitigation strategies**

The current situation shows that despite having numerous strategies, practices, and programs to address climate change impacts, the level of vulnerability is still high in most developing countries [51]. This is because there are other factors that affect negatively the efforts of increasing resilience to climate impacts. Therefore, to improve adaptation to climate impacts, we need to have a clear exploration of what we have been doing for couple of time. In most Eastern African countries, the National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) was adopted in the 2000s [31]. NAPA reviewed the level of vulnerability of economic, social, and ecological factors, among others, to climate change. Thus, it is better to review the NAPA if it still captures the most current challenges. If not, we need to revise it and mainstream the new important aspects in plans, programs, and policies. This will serve the widest audience of victims in the region, more particularly the small-holder farmers.

Again, the study on local condition should be done to explore the actual climate

Besides, various international and local reports have realized that since rain-fed agriculture is not reliable, there is a need to develop irrigation systems from groundwater and rainfall harvest sources [1]. In semiarid zones such as Central Tanzania and Northeastern Kenya and Uganda, intensive transformation to serve the livelihoods in these areas is needed. It will improve the agricultural systems for food crops and animal husbandry. This is because, currently, there has been a massive

The improvement of agricultural systems needs to be given high priority in the region. This is because most poor agricultural systems have significant contribution to the emission of greenhouse gases. This is influenced by limited knowledge and technology to overcome the environmental changes that have been progressing over time. The implementation of various plans, projects, and programs needs to have effectiveness to the majority and not business as usual. This involves the best addressing of the climate challenge to the targeted group. Despite the increasing number of needy people, however, there is still a possibility to advance the methods of solving the challenges as related to the magnitude of the problem. This will bring more positive results to the social, economic, and ecological development to the

In this review, we assess and estimate the causes, vulnerability, impact, and adaptation strategies of climate change on the livelihoods in Eastern Africa. This was to respond the call for the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC regarding

variations of climate variables within the local condition [12]. This now necessitates the follow-up from that level and progresses onward. However, this should be accompanied by authentic meteorological stations installed in villages. This will be

impacts that emanate in the locality. It was found that there have been intra-

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.86850*

the source of climate data and information.

crop failure and death of a huge number of animals.

**10. Conclusions and potential policy implications**

measures has been unavoidable.

*A Novel Assessment of the Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation of Climate Change in Eastern… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.86850*

have significantly involved irrigation (i.e., groundwater or from rainwater harvest), fertilization, and adoption of drought and tolerant seeds. This is dominant in the countries like Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi where agriculture contributes over 50% of the GDP [10]. Even in countries like Kenya and Ethiopia where agriculture contributes to less than 30% of the GDP, adoption of suitable adaptation measures has been unavoidable.
