4. Conclusions

We created a statistical model combining a process mean function with an exponential spatial covariance function with a nugget to predict salinity in a lagoonal estuary. This model can generate predictions of bottom salinity for Pamlico Sound, NC that are more spatially-resolute than any previous bottom salinity predictions encountered in the literature for this system. The salinity maps produced using the model are useful for researchers to build an intuitive understanding of salinity dynamics under PS conditions covered by these 40 time periods. Salinity predictions can also be used to inform future analyses including, but not limited to, the examination of historical distribution patterns of estuarine species relative to salinity variability and the prediction of salinity changes under various global climate change scenarios.
