Preface

The idea of climate, scientifically speaking, was formulated to represent the stable meteorological patterns of the terrestrial surface of Earth with a classification that could reflect the extant conditions. Each climate was based on the numerical tabulation of data for 30-year periods of meteorological observations of temperature, precipitation, and sometimes other phenomena, and the annual and seasonal patterns of means and extremes. Every year, the climate could be recalculated based on the 30 previous years. As long as there were minor changes, the patterns could be regarded as stable. Climates could therefore be used to forecast the distribution of vegetation, resources (like water and fertile soils), and hazards. Climate classifications were extremely useful for planning, particularly for agricultural, land use, and residential adaptations to stable environments. Our past activities could be continued on with little reason to fear that they would no longer be supported by the climatological conditions of a place.

Climatologically speaking, climate change is instability: the (increasingly significant) departure from past climates. Climate change is not "real" in the sense that we can empirically observe it; it is statistical and comparative over a longer time period than most people could recall in detail. The change signified is neither good nor bad, it is just changing. It can be a subtle change or it could be a dramatic change. Though rare, the changes taking place within a climate might be beneficial to the local community, as when arid climates become more humid or when cold or warm seasons become more temperate. The change of any climate (i.e., of a region of Earth), however, is the byproduct of global heating's influence on atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Although some might see a silver lining in the warming of Earth's atmosphere, there will likely be greater negative experiences somewhere else around the world or for people living sometime in the future.

The changes in the climates of the world are more important than just a matter of comfortable temperatures or warm sunny days. The results of changing daily, seasonal, or annual thermal and hydrological regimes yield fundamental consequences for the biological and ecological conditions in a location and may undermine human economic activities or even present threats to the lives and properties of those present. In fact, the most important consequence of changing climates is that patterns that may have long been relatively static are no longer predictable. The most important element of climate change is that it makes the future more precarious for both nature and humans. Natural organisms have more limited adaptability than people; their environment might evolve beyond their tolerances. People have a greater capacity to adapt, change, persevere, or migrate.

This volume contains studies that consider the implications of changing climates in Asia and Africa. Combined, these two regions contain the majority of the population of Earth's lesser developed countries whose survival lacks the kinds of cushion or insulation provided by advanced technologies or economic safety nets enjoyed by people in more developed regions. Africa and Asia comprise environments that have significant limitations for resource development, particularly food production. There are regions that are too dry, too wet, too hot, and too cold, and some

might even experience two or more of these conditions from one season to the next. Consideration of the quite varied experiences across these regions allows us to examine the consequences of changing climates for the natural and human environments in this context.

This book is organized into three parts. The first includes four studies that focus on the biophysical consequences that climate change has on evapotranspiration rates, precipitation extremes, and coral bleaching in the Indian Ocean. The three chapters of the second section regard the social consequences of climate change in the patterns of humid-region flood risk and hazards in Asia and the implications of climate change for Zimbabwe's horticultural sector. The third section contains seven studies of adaptation to climate change. These chapters examine agricultural vulnerability in Uganda, mitigation and adaptation of palm-oil plantations in Indonesia, farmer's localized knowledge for mitigating precipitation variability in eastern and southern Africa, sustainable carbon management in paddy rice-growing regions, adaptation to changing patterns of hazards in India, river flooding and temporary displacement of women and children of Nigerian villages, and management and mitigation of ecological impacts and diversity in Nepal.

The challenges posed to these regions by global warming are often complicated by the paucity of data and the unavailability of relatively common technological systems to enable monitoring and field work. The scholars of these regions often work on the margins of global science because of the costs of access to scholarly literature and the expense of publication in the most prestigious journals. It is my hope that the exposure afforded to these scholars published in the volume will enable greater international support and collaboration with them.

> **John P. Tiefenbacher** Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Texas State University, San Marcos, Texas, USA

Section 1
