**4.2 Factors influencing a farmer's decision at the farm level in maize and wheat production in Uasin Gishu, county, Kenya**

In an effort to understand what influences a farmers decision to commence an activity in the maize and wheat growing calendar (when to start land preparation, planting, type of crop to grow, weeding, top dressing, spraying of weeds, fungus or bacterial infection on crops and even harvesting), the following responses were gathered from the farmers:-Those who commence their activities just because those are the dates known to them through their experience over time in maize and wheat growing were 333 (84.9%). Another group of farmers 141 (36%) rely on looking around for *"signs that rains are about to fall (wind direction from east to western side, cloud movement from eastern to western side of their farms and high sunshine intensity during the day and warm nights)".* Advice from the Ministry of Agriculture Livestock and Fisheries officials was mentioned by 29 (7.4%) of the farmers as having assisted them make decisions on the start of farming activities in their respective farms as shown in **Figure 4**.

#### **Figure 4.**

*What factors influence a farmer's decision at the farm level in maize and wheat production in Uasin Gishu, county, Kenya.*

The results reveal a farming population solely dependent on their own indigenous knowledge systems and experience gained over time in maize and wheat growing to make certain farming decisions. The fact that 333 (84.9%) farmers commence their activities just because those are the dates known to them through their experience over time and another 141 (36%) looking around at some indigenous knowledge system indicators that rains are about to fall is a clear indication that framers do base their faming decisions on their own indigenous knowledge systems and experience gained over time. However, depending solely on indigenous knowledge indicators to predict onset dates of the rains and experience gained over time practicing maize and wheat creates a big challenge to the farmer especially with the prevailing changing climate that keeps on distorting seasons known to farmers. This makes farmers vulnerable and may incur much losses related to unpredictable weather patterns brought about by climatic changes. The findings in this study correspond with findings in [24] which asserts that in different parts of the world, farmers depending on rain-fed cultivation have developed complex cultural models of weather and may be able to cite local predictors of seasonal climate. Similarly, [13] argue that even when climate information is available, incorporation of scientific climate information into local decision making may not often occur because of the way such information is communicated and disseminated. There is need to identify clear channels of information delivery and also downscale the information to make sense for the farmer for effective uptake of such information.

## **4.3 Indigenous knowledge system indicators in rainfall prediction for farmers in Uasin Gishu County, Kenya**

In an effort to understand what farmers use as their local indigenous knowledge indicators for weather prediction, farmers were asked to state what they thought were signs that rains were about to fall in their respective areas based on their experiences gained over time as maize and wheat farmers. The farmers who affirmed and believed that the real sign for rain commencement in their farms is when there are consistent lightning flashes around the Lake Region or Tindiret area in Nandi South as affirmed by 245 (62.7%). Those farmers who belief that heavy cloud cover *Integrating Local Farmers Knowledge Systems in Rainfall Prediction and Available Weather… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.96504*

and intense sunshine during the day was a sign that rains were about to commence were 178 (45.5%). The farmers relying on wind direction (eastwards and sometimes westwards) to alert them that the rains were about to commence were 159 (40.7%). Farmers who belief that very warm nights was a sign that rains were about to fall in their area were 195 (49.9%). Those who affirmed that in the recent years, it has been quite difficult to predict when the rains are about to fall were few farmers 42 (10.7%). The responses are as shown in **Figure 5**.

**Figure 5.**

*Indigenous knowledge system indicators for predicting rainfall in Uasin Gishu County, Kenya. (\*multiple responses - farmers were allowed to note as many reasons as were applicable).*

The findings in this study reflect a farming community that has developed its own indicators in the traditional knowledge system on rainfall prediction. The set of indicators of rainfall used by farmers include consistent lightning flashes around the Lake Region or *Tindiret* area in *Nandi* South, heavy cloud cover and intense sunshine during the day, blowing of wind towards eastern side and sometimes westwards and very warm nights. During the key informant interview to supplement and corroborate some of the response, the following were identified as other key indicators used by farmers especially among the *Nandi* community and include examining the behavior of certain plants or trees to determine rainfall near onset. Among the plant species known include the tree *Erithrina Abyssinica (Kakarwet).* The tree starts flowering red with full leaves regained, *Vernonia Auriculifera (Tepengwet)* tree starts flowering, *Flacourtia indica (Tungururwet)* start budding is an indicator for rainfall near onset and farmers prepare to commence dry planting. The Fig tree (*Ficus sycomorus*) known locally by farmers as *(Mogoiywet)* start shading leaves is an indicator for rainfall near onset. One other small plant (herb) growing in thickets or bushes *Scadoxus multiflorus* of the *Amaryllidaceae* family *(Ngotiotet)* starts flowering red around March period and found in thickets or bushes near river banks is a real indicator for rainfall near onset.

Other indicators include migratory birds among them the White Stock *(Kaptalaminik*) moving or flying towards the north side signifying near rainfall onset and when flight changes towards the south, this signifies rainfall cessation. In addition to the indicators, the community had a unique way or prayer asking their God for rainfall or water for their domestic use during drought manifestation. According to the key informants interviewed, the traditional prayer song *(ingoo)* was sang by mature women and those at child bearing age at night and in several groups (3 to 4 groups of women) from various locations. They could join in the prayer song at night converging at one place in the open near a watering point away from homesteads as participants sang without cloths on them. They carried with them cooking items that include cooking sticks (*mukanget ak Kurbet*) and some finger millet flour (*Beek ab Kipsongik).* This form of prayers according to key informants and other farmers participating in this study all agreed that the women prayers at night were answered almost instantly there and then because before mid-night during the singing, heavy rains would fall on the singing women as they retreat back to their homesteads happy.

The study by [18] also supports the findings in this study and explain that majority of farmers prefer indigenous forecasting knowledge more than contemporary forecasting. The reasons being that indigenous information is more compatible with local culture and it has been tested, tried and trusted. In addition, it is more specific and is in a language that can be understood better by communities. There is a clear view here that it is important to document indigenous knowledge system used by maize and wheat farmers and ultimately integrate the knowledge with science based climate forecasting. Integrating both scientific and traditional knowledge will enable uptake and ownership of climate information by communities hence helping farmers avoid losses as a result of the changing climate. This is because farmers consider the fact that their perspectives have been taken into consideration when their indicators for predicting rainfall near onset have been taken into account by the weather forecasts. This creates ownership and sustainability in the long run.

The study finding compares well with findings by [38] explaining that in Uganda, indigenous knowledge forecasters associate the onset of rainfall with the appearance of clouds. The appearance of nimbostratus and cumulonimbus clouds indicates a high probability of rainfall. Biological indicators focus on the behavior and activities of domestic and wild animals, insects and different species of plants for weather forecasting. For instance, in Uganda, the *Mvule* tree indicates onset of the rainy season. In Kenya like Ethiopia, the intestines of sheep and goats are used to forecast about the magnitude, severity, and duration of drought, drought-affected places, disease outbreak, the prospect of peace, and/or conflict. In Tanzania, the occurrence of large flocks of swallows and swans, roaming from the South to the North during the months of September to November, is an indication of onset of short rains [38]. From the afore going, to effectively mainstream access to climate and weather information in key sectors, it is important to understand the local perspectives in relation to the changing climate and coping strategies in place. Ignoring this fact might hinder uptake of weather forecasts by the farmers hence leaving them completely vulnerable to the changing climate as they would rely only on their indigenous knowledge systems to mitigate prevailing weather conditions.
