**3. Findings: Zimbabwe climate change risk outline**

Climate predictions in Zimbabwe related to temperature and precipitation have to be done in light of the possible representative concentration pathways (RCPs)<sup>1</sup> . The climate change information fact sheet on Zimbabwe of (2015) predicts that in 2030 the mean annual temperatures in the country will increase by 0.46°C, 1.04°C, and 1.83°C for the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles for the RCP4.5. Similarly, the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles for the RCP8.5 will witness increases of 0.62°C, 1.25°C, and 1.83°C. In 2050 the climate change information fact sheet for Zimbabwe predicts that the mean annual temperature in the country will increase by 0.95°C, 1.68°C, and 2.66°C for the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles for the RCP4.5. Similarly, the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles for the RCP8.5 will witness increases of 1.43°C, 2.17°C, and 3.13°C. The greatest increases are projected for the months June through to September. Unganai [6] also predicts an overall increase in annual mean temperature anomalies —temperature changes out of tune with the 1986–2005 average—using three different models shown in **Figure 4**.

Unganai [6] goes further in **Figures 3** and **5** showing the likely temperature changes in the country in accordance with the major river catchments. According to **Figures 3** and **5**, at RCP4.5 most of the country —save for the Eastern highlands will see an increase in temperature anomalies of above 1.41°C while at RCP 8.5 the general rise in temperatures will be more pronounced in the northern than southern part of the country.

Regarding rainfall, the climate change information fact sheet on Zimbabwe of (2015) predicted changes in the scale of the rainfall probability distribution, indicating that extremes on both sides (floods and droughts) may become more frequent in the future. Furthermore, the climate change information fact sheet on Zimbabwe of (2015) projected mid-century decline of groundwater recharge, decrease in soil moisture and annual runoff. Still on future rainfall patterns and

<sup>1</sup> An RCP is a greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration (not emissions) trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014 [8]. Four pathways that describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on the volume of GHGs emitted in the years to come have been selected for climate modelling and research. The four RCPs are RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5 and all are consistent with a wide range of possible changes in future GHG emissions. RCP 2.6 assumes that global annual GHG emissions —measured in CO-equivalents— peak between 2010 and 2020, with emissions declining substantially thereafter. Emissions in RCP 4.5 peak around 2040, then decline. In RCP 6, emissions peak around 2080, then decline. In RCP 8.5, emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century.

*Climate Change Risks in Horticultural Value Chains: A Case Study from Zimbabwe DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.97211*

**Figure 4.**

*Predicted mean annual temperature anomalies for Zimbabwe using various forecasting models. Source: Unganai [6].*

#### **Figure 5.**

*Temperature predictions for Zimbabwe at RCP 4.5. Source: Unganai [6].*

using 1985–2005 as a benchmark, Unganai [6] predicted rainfall reductions in most of the country under the RCP 4.5 (see **Figure 6**) and rainfall increases in most of Zimbabwe under the RCP 8.5 (see **Figure 7**).

**Figure 6.**

*Precipitation predictions for Zimbabwe under RCP 4.5. Source: Unganai [6].*
