**4.4 Do famers belief in the use of climate information/weather forecasts or their indigenous knowledge system indicators in rainfall prediction**

Farmers were further tested on whether they relied on the use of climate and weather information or their indigenous knowledge/practice in their farming decisions and the responses were varied as outlined in **Table 1**.

More than half of the farmers 219 (55.7%) sometimes belief in seasonal climate and weather information, 163 (43.7%) rely on experience/indigenous knowledge in wheat production most of the time and 148 (37.8%) rely on experience/indigenous knowledge in maize production most of the time as outlined in **Table 1**. The results show a group of farmers who tend to belief in the use of climate and weather information to conduct their business of maize and wheat crop growing however, they remain influenced by their traditional knowledge system which they have relied upon over the years. This arrangement becomes very challenging at present

*Integrating Local Farmers Knowledge Systems in Rainfall Prediction and Available Weather… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.96504*


**Table 1.**

*Belief in use of climate and weather information or indigenous knowledge among farmers in Uasin Gishu County.*

with the prevailing changing climate. There is need to balance access to the two sets of information by farmers as stated by farmers in this study. The findings in the study agree with those by [13] in a paper on community based adaptation in climate change which reveal that farmers in Burkina Faso traditionally rely on observation of environmental indicators to predict climate patterns, but they lost confidence in their ability to predict rainfall given the increased climate variability and increasingly seek to incorporate meteorological forecasts/climate information.

To understand further the usage of climate and weather information and the influence of farmer's indigenous knowledge systems in maize and wheat production over time, indicators used in rainfall prediction were examined together with usage of climate and weather information as shown in **Table 2**. The results portray existence of a significant relationship between indigenous knowledge system indicators for rainfall prediction and the use of climate and weather information in maize and wheat production activity as shown in **Table 2**.

A higher proportion of the farmers relying on their indigenous knowledge system indicators to predict rainfall hence making decision on farming activities do not use climate and weather information as indicated in **Table 2**. A greater negative influence is created on utilization of climate information by farmers if they are left alone to decide whether to embrace climate information or stick to their indigenous knowledge systems in their farming decisions. Farmer's indigenous knowledge indicators and experience gained over time practising maize and wheat growing influence a lot their ability to use climate information. There is need therefore for the County Directorates of Agriculture in Kenya to undertake greater sensitization


#### **Table 2.**

*Relationship between climate information and indigenous knowledge indicators usage in rainfall prediction in Uasin Gishu County, Kenya.*

meetings during farmers village meetings, agricultural shows and farmer's field day outlets to educate farmers on the need to consider using climate information in addition to their great local knowledge and experience learned over time in farming decisions as this will cushion them against extreme weather variations that may lead to crop losses hence impacting negatively on their livelihoods.

The traditional weather forecasters form part of the decision making process sometimes when farmers experience delayed onset of rainfall when they look at their farming calendar. Farmers listen to what known traditional weather forecasters can deduct from reading the arrangement of stars in the solar system and the "positioning of male and female star". During the key informant interview with the traditional elder shown in **Figure 6**, he predicted that "*there was going to be plenty of rain in December 2013 and that rains would continue to March 2014. He advised the farmers to grow short duration crops like beans that take 3 months to mature*".

#### **Figure 6.**

*Explanation of weather phenomena by a traditional weather forecaster in Moiben Sub County of Uasin Gishu, Kenya.*

From the diverse responses by the farmers, it is evident that indigenous knowledge system plays a crucial role in farmer's decision making process; ultimately, it has a significant impact on their activities. With changing climate being real in the region, farmers relying on "known signs" or meteorological indicators derived in their traditional knowledge systems are at a greater risk of losing out on benefiting from prevailing positive conditions or avoiding bad weather leading to crop loss. Farmers and key stakeholders in the agricultural sector need to incorporate climate and weather information or weather forecasts in their decision making process. Indigenous knowledge weather prediction methodologies are now facing serious challenges related to environmental degradation and interference of the natural ecosystem balance by man. According to the Director of Meteorology in Uasin Gishu County and some traditional weather forecasters interviewed, most indigenous trees have disappeared completely and are being replaced by exotic trees which are alien to indigenous weather predictors. They have thin leaves thus their ability to sequestrate carbon in the atmosphere is reduced hence does not help much in arresting greenhouse gasses. Burning of farms has not only destroyed micronutrients and shrubs but also destroy insects and their migratory paths which traditional weather forecasters use to predict near onset of rains.

Some bird species have migrated elsewhere where they can still find a natural habitat hence rendering traditional weather forecasters using birds to predict onset of rains helpless. It is however important to integrate both scientific and traditional knowledge system as the scientific forecast diverges from traditional farmer's

*Integrating Local Farmers Knowledge Systems in Rainfall Prediction and Available Weather… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.96504*

prediction in scale and to some extent on predictors [30]. In any case, some of the principles of the predictors like wind flow, temperature changes converge with the scientific forecast. Farmers have been using combination of various biological, meteorological and astronomical indicators to predict the rainfall. While the scientific forecast are developed using the predictors such as wind, sea surface temperatures and others which are primarily meteorological indicators.

#### **4.5 Value attached to utilization of climate and weather information**

If weather forecasts/weather and climate information were to be integrated with indigenous knowledge system for synergy prediction among farmers, it is critical to understanding how such farmers perceive as value attached to utilization of such climate and weather information in relation to their maize and wheat growing. Farmers were asked to rank the value they attached to climate and weather information use in their farming enterprise and their responses were captured either as very important, important, unsure, and not important. As indicated in **Figure 7**, more than half of the farmers view climate and weather information as very important in both maize and wheat growing 215 (54.8%) and 206 (54.4%) respectively. Similarly, a large number of farmers still considered the same information as important 143 (36.7%) for maize growing and 136 (36.1%) for wheat growing.

#### **Figure 7.**

*Value attached to utilization of climate and weather information in Uasin Gishu County, Kenya.*

As seen earlier farmers in this study have agreed that climate and weather information is important but whether this translates into action or use remains to be tested. A mere belief in some variable (climate and weather information) does not necessarily translate into adoption of the same especially where traditional knowledge systems influence decisions as seen elsewhere in the results of this study. This calls for greater efforts to educate farmers to be able to embrace weather forecasts as well in their farming decisions as mere belief in it would not alter losses they will incur especially with the prevailing climate variability which has distorted order of activities and seasons known to farmers in maize and wheat growing areas of Kenya. It is important to emphasize that climate information or weather forecasts is key to understanding climate as a major influence on lives, livelihoods, resources, ecosystems and development. According to [39], weather forecasts supports decision making on which option to invest in, when and how much to invest. Flexible and proactive planning enabled by climate information helps vulnerable communities

especially the farming communities to cope with the risks inherent. It provides a way of analyzing the nature and scale of impacts due to past and current climate and the potential future impacts as the climate continues to vary and change. In the end, actors can then make informed and appropriate decisions and plans to deal with climate-related impacts through adaptation, risk reduction and development actions.
