**2. Indigenous knowledge systems and meteorological forecasts use among farmers dependent on rainfall in western Kenya and some countries in Eastern and Southern Africa – some examples**

Indigenous knowledge (IK) is generally defined as "knowledge of a people of a particular area based on their interactions and experiences within that area, their traditions, and their incorporation of knowledge emanating from elsewhere into their production and economic systems" [11]. The terms indigenous, traditional and/or local knowledge as commonly referred to is knowledge and knowhow that is accumulated over generations and guides human societies in their innumerable interactions with their surrounding environment [12]. Indigenous Knowledge is still important among local communities in many parts of Africa and the global scientific community do acknowledge its value [12]; however, most of this knowledge except a few captured by researchers has not been well documented hence the risk of losing some of this tacit knowledge when holders of such knowledge are incapacitated in any way. Over the years, communities have developed their own systems for monitoring climate conditions, but this information may not be adequate to inform adaptation if the changing climate continues in unprecedented way. An example from Burkina Faso illustrates that farmers who traditionally relied on observation of environmental indicators to predict climate patterns have now lost much confidence in their ability to predict rainfall accurately given increased changing climate thus increasingly seek to incorporate weather forecast information [13]. Socio–cultural changes also account for the shift away from traditional practices such as the use of bio–indicators for agricultural production, even when such practices continue to provide useful information [13, 14]. It is thus important to reflect on the traditional knowledge systems of communities as this provides an important entry point to scientist, researchers and key stakeholders in water, climate change, agriculture, food security and livelihood sectors into understanding how a new type of information about the climate/weather might be accepted and used by the local people to counter prevailing adverse weather conditions [15].

Climate information is a valuable resource for confronting and living with an increasingly uncertain future. Availability of climate information or weather forecasts provides a basis on which people whose livelihoods are affected by climate can make forward looking and flexible plans that are adapted to a range of climate possibilities. Consequently, climate information allows us to move from strategies which react to conditions as or after they occur, to those which seek to build resilience under all possible conditions and ultimately, to proactive strategies informed by forecasts and forecast probabilities [16]. In the agricultural enterprise, crop growth, or crop yield, requires appropriate amounts of moisture, light, and temperature at its correct time hence timing of farmer activities is critical at the local farm level. Detailed and accurate historical, real-time and forecast weather information can help farmers better understand and track the growth status of crop hence being able to make informed decisions. Having access to this critical agronomic data and information can guide farmers in making significant and potentially costly decisions, such as when to start tilling the land and subsequent planting period of crops as this is directly related to rainfall onset and cessation dates in rainfall dependent agriculture [16]. The most useful weather forecast information that can assist farmers in making decisions on agricultural management is the early indication of the characteristics of the rainy season. It should include: onset date of the main rains; quality of the rainy season (rainfall amount); cessation date of the main rains; temporal and spatial distribution of the main rains; timing and frequency of active and dry periods (wet and dry spells) and probability of extreme weather events. These decisions relate to the choice of crops to be made, cultivar (early or late flowering), mix of crops fertilizer use, pest and disease control and also timing of the harvest period [17].

There is evidence that substantial gain to sustainable food security and national development adaptation strategies can be achieved in Africa through provision and integration of improved climate information and prediction products into decisionmaking systems [18]. Accurate monitoring, prediction and early warning of seasonal rainfall performance can be used to improve planning and management of various rainfall dependent socio-economic activities like agriculture and the same can be used to enhance the livelihoods of the communities and services and support their resilience to adverse weather conditions. According to [13], access to climate information and technologies for adaptation is essential to enable actors to anticipate long–term risks and make the appropriate adjustments to increase their resilience. However, despite significant scientific gains in predicting the climate, often there is a lack of climate information available at the local level due to uncertainty in climate projections and seasonal forecasts, or due to lack of information on particular climate indicators, such as rainfall variability. Even when climate information is available, incorporation of scientific climate information into local decision making may not often occur because of the way such information is communicated and disseminated [19]. Several studies have shown that there is a need to make climate information more accurate, accessible, and useful for rural communities [20].

Adapting to climate change requires improved understanding of the linkages between climatic conditions and the outcomes of climate sensitive processes or activities; agricultural production for example in a certain region could be influenced by the availability of water resources and their management ways. Information from literature according to [21] explains that adequate use of climate and weather information conditions by farmers' results in at least 30% increase in crop yields. The utilization of this information reduces farmers' vulnerability to weather related risks, ensures that informed decisions are made on time, and reduces the risk of agricultural losses as well as indicating to farmers the most marketable crop in respective times. The analysis in the study on economic value of climate forecasts for livestock production in the Northwest Province of South Africa

#### *Integrating Local Farmers Knowledge Systems in Rainfall Prediction and Available Weather… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.96504*

demonstrated that, for the commercial farmers, long term average annual income could potentially be increased through using ENSO predictions [22].

During a World Bank funded workshop in Dar-es-Salaam in 1999 on users responding to seasonal climate forecasts in southern Africa and the lessons learned then, it became apparent that there were communication barriers between the generators of the information and the users of the same information thus there was a need to develop appropriate information channels to relay such information. The second was that there were bottlenecks in the effective use of seasonal climate forecasts by farmers [23–25]. Users of seasonal climate forecasts have not been able to decode the information disseminated and therefore, users could not make use of the information provided if they did not understand the information provided in the first place [25]. Field studies conducted in the southern part of Africa reveal the existence of a considerable gap between information needed by farmers and that provided by meteorological services. There existed a communication barrier as the two parties have been interacting for a long time but to some extent, they have not been able to communicate effectively. The farmers know what they want and the meteorological services know what they need to give to the farmers, but there is no "shared meaning" [23, 24]. Without a shared meaning in communication, the value attached to particular information availed to the user (farmer) is diminished and may not serve the intended purpose.

In the light of such challenges, adopting an integrated approach where weather forecasts are combined with indigenous knowledge systems locally have shown to be effective in mitigating variability in the farming enterprise. According to [26–28], the use of scientific weather forecasts and indigenous climate forecast information for farm level decision making has been reported in Kenya and Mozambique. Previous studies in East Africa indicate that both IK and scientific weather forecasts are used for making crop and livestock production decisions, conserve the environment, and deal with other natural disasters. In Malawi and Zimbabwe, communities have combined scientific and indigenous climate forecast information for farm-level decisions hence being able to cope with prevailing drought [29]. Therefore indigenous knowledge system in weather forecasting is crucial in complementing available weather forecast information for improved decision making by farmers.

The Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA) program, funded by the International Development Research Centre (Canada) and the Department for International Development (United Kingdom) have supported projects that investigated how seasonal climate forecasts might be better integrated into agricultural and pastoral decision-making to strengthen livelihoods and food security [30]. Through these projects, it is apparent that indigenous knowledge forecasts, which have been used by communities for decades, provide information that is complementary to the meteorological forecasts. Indigenous seasonal forecasting and weather forecast information from the meteorological services help assist development challenges related to climate variability brought about by changing climate. Many farmers already use indigenous forecasts in their farm-level decisions and may only need certain information, such as total rainfall expected in the season, to complement what they already have. It is, therefore, important that policymakers, practitioners, and forecasters (both from meteorological services and indigenous groups) target existing gaps and take advantage of opportunities if they are to support farmers and pastoralists in managing climate risk in Africa [30].

Many societies and communities have their own ways of interpreting climate and weather patterns developed over years of experience. Traditional rainfall forecasts/predictions differ across communities, cultural background, and environment around the farm. According to [31], in South-Western Free State and Kwa-Zulu Natal of South Africa, as well as Western Kenya, inhabitants use birds, toads,

and white ants to predict the dry season and onset of rains as well as temperatures. In Tanzania, they look at the behavioral patterns of birds and mammals. In a study on climate forecasting among the Basotho in Lesotho, they were asked if there were any ways to predict the coming weather and climate from what they know traditionally and a lot of answers were given that touched on weather conditions (hours and days) rather than climate conditions (weeks to months). The indicators were both environmental and cultural beliefs. According to [15], birds and insects were the most common environmental indicators. People mentioned the 'squawk or the *Makara*' bird as being indicative of rain in the coming days. Winds that blow from a certain direction were thought to bring rain. Plants flowering at certain time, the amount and color of clouds gathering, rising groundwater and frisky animals were all mentioned as indicators of imminent rain.

Among the Nganyi community in Western Kenya, the traditional weathermen observe the flora and fauna in the Nganyi forest shrine to predict weather conditions. The forest, which lies on just one acre of land, has pristine biodiversity that has helped the local Bunyore community predict weather conditions for generations. According to [32], researchers with the Climate Change Adaption in Africa (CCAA) program, a collaboration between international organizations and Kenyan scientists recorded data from a meteorological weather station near Bunyore in western Kenya for two seasons. They then compared its results with predictions made by indigenous forecasters who use the forest shrine as their main tool. The two findings were similar in all aspects. Based on this outcome, the researchers recommended the combination of both meteorological data and indigenous knowledge to facilitate accurate predictions that are acceptable scientifically and by the local community [32]. The Nganyi shares the consensus forecast for the coming season with the local community, in local languages, through radio, in churches and other community gathering points. The Nganyi community weather predictions are based on close observation of natural phenomena, like the budding or flowering of specific plant species and the behavior of local insects, birds and animals, associated with seasonal changes. A colony of bees migrating from downstream to the upper land clearly means that long rains are approaching and the vice versa symbolizes dry season [32].

Among farmers in the Kalenjin community in the North Rift region of Kenya, there are indicators or rainfall predictors that have been observed over the years and have been perceived as very important. The indicators can be classified as those related to the plant species, meteorological, animal and universe indicators. According to [33], some of the meteorological indicators include wind direction blowing eastwards signifying rainfall near onset, clouds thickening at the horizon and wind veering or breaking towards the east and cloud darkening in color; this signify rainfall onset and also cloud movement from eastern to western side of their farms all indicating rainfall onset. High sunshine intensity during the day and warm nights or high temperatures at night and low temperature in the evening signify onset of rains. Lightning strikes in near vertical position in three specific locations indicate near onset of rainfall.
