**5. Conclusions and recommendations**

The study establishes the bases of a new conceptual and methodological framework for the integral risk assessment, which, in addition to guiding the development of the study, allows the generation of information processing and analysis tools to make it possible.

According to the total risk maps for each analysis scenario, it is evident that in the event of an eruption of the Cerro Machín volcano, the population centers of Cajamarca, Anaime, Toche, Tapias, and Coello-Cocora, as well as the Pan-American Highway in the stretch between Ibagué and Cajamarca, would be seriously affected.

According to the map of escape routes and areas of possible hostels, it is ratified as an adequate site to relocate the populations of Cajamarca and Anaime to the Potosí sector, provided that it is complemented with the layout, design, and construction of a new road that communicates from Ibagué to Potosí and from there to Quindío, not to leave these populations isolated.

According to the map of total risks and in compliance with the precautionary principle, it is recommended to continue with the processes of education and preparation of the population for the emergency, indicating their escape routes and temporary and/or definitive shelter sites. It is considered pertinent to start already (immediately) the design of a comprehensive prevention strategy, which, on the one hand, orients the processes of relocation of the aforementioned population centers and, on the other, initiates the design, layout, and construction of a new route or route alternate that gives operational redundancy to the current Pan-American route.

It is recommended to convert the entire surrounding area to the Cerro Machín volcano in a large protected area attached to the national system of natural parks, which guarantees an ordering and territorial management more appropriate to the risks involved and its great ecotouristic potential. This option will allow, in principle, the reorientation of resources for the maintenance of access roads, and, in passing, the strengthening of risk management capacity. In the future, it will allow the development of low impact ecotourism activities, through hostels, thermal pools, restaurants, ecological trails, etc. as well as the construction of a cable car that facilitates rapid access from Cajamarca to the hill of San Lorenzo and from there to the Machín volcano crater.

It is evident that the integral evaluation of the risk is a determining factor in the processes of territorial ordering and therefore it is suggested the revision and

*Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions*

management.

to these questions constitutes a complex decision-making process that allows defining precise, clear, and consensual policy guidelines that guide, dynamize, and articulate a comprehensive risk management that adequately involves both the processes of comprehensive risk assessment and the formulation of emergency, contingency, and mitigation plans that guarantee efficient and effective risk

This process of making political, economic, administrative, logistical, social, environmental and technical decisions can be easily carried out if you have the right information and tools. This analysis should consider adjustments in land use planning, in the retention and transfer of financial risk, and of course, in cost-benefit

Taking into consideration the total risk maps for the two analyzed analysis scenarios, the maps are generated where the escape routes and areas of possible shelters for transient and/or definitive relocation of population and population

According to the above, some preliminary aspects to be considered in the process

Pre-crisis scenario: according to [17], this scenario corresponds to the current situation of the volcano and may last from several to hundreds of years, in which the threats do not materialize. It is characterized by strong emanations of gases and by the eventual seismicity of the volcanic building that can cause some important landslides in the most susceptible areas and get to affect the nearest inhabitants and some communication routes. Due to the characteristics of this scenario and in light of the risk study carried out, one should now think of a definitive relocation strategy for the population settled in the high-risk area and begin immediately with the active participation of the community and the tasks of review, validation, and testing of emergency plans.

Start crisis scenario: according to [17], this scenario can last from hours to weeks prior to an imminent eruption and is characterized by the increase of seismicity, gas emissions, and the possible collapse of the south western side of the volcanic building, causing the damming of the Toche river and landslides in the areas near the

centers are defined, as they are presented in duplex manner in **Figure 5**.

of progressive evacuation of risk areas are described below.

analyzes for the prevention and mitigation of risk.

**76**

**Figure 5.**

*Duplex map of escape routes and areas of possible hostels—scenarios for the initiation of crises and eruption.*

adjustment to all the territorial planning plans that have not involved this factor, in a priority way in those watersheds and populated centers with obvious natural threats by volcanism, mass removal, torrential floods, avalanches, floods, forest fires, etc.

Finally, it is suggested to test and calibrate the model developed in the risk assessment of other volcanoes in the country.
