**4.1 Total risk maps**

*Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions*

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scenario.

**Figure 3.**

**Table 4.**

of information; the alphanumeric and geospatial analysis with which it is possible to calculate the threat indexes, vulnerability, and risk at the level of each pixel of the study area; and finally the obtaining of products, such as risk maps for each analysis

*Logical framework matrix for comprehensive risk assessment—eruption scenario.*

What follows in this process diagram (after the dotted line in **Figure 3**) will be the risk assessment for decision-making in accordance with the retention and transfer of financial risk and with the cost-benefit analysis [24] that allows to define clear, precise, and consensual policy guidelines for land-use planning, as well as the

corresponding emergency and contingency plans.

*Methodological diagram for the integral risk assessment.*

According to the logical risk assessment framework, for each analysis scenario considered, the total risk maps are obtained by means of the weighted sum of the total risks on each exposed element, as shown in **Figure 4**.

According to the map in **Figure 4**, it can be seen in a general way that for the crisis initiation scenario, the highest total risk indexes are located in the areas near the volcanic building and in the valleys and slopes of the Toche and Bermellón rivers. For the eruption scenario, the high-risk indices are located in the areas exposed to the flows and landslides. The medium- to high-risk indexes are located in areas exposed to falls, characterized by the presence of crops and isolated rural housing.
