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**45**

**Chapter 3**

**Abstract**

Long-Term Changes in Sea Surface

Central California and Monterey

Bay from 1920 to 2014: Are They

We examine to what extent the waters of Monterey Bay act independently of those along the central California coast. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from 1920 to 2014 from the central California coast and Monterey Bay were analyzed for longterm trends. To estimate the trends, singular spectrum analysis and empirical mode decomposition were employed. Between 1920 and 1940, long-term trends inside and outside Monterey Bay revealed rapidly increasing temperatures. After 1940 trends inside the bay indicate that temperatures increased from ~1950 for the next 40 years, peaking around 1990, and then decreased rapidly through 2013. Offshore, temperatures increased to the early 1960s, after which they decreased until 2014. El Nino episodes, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and increased coastal upwelling contribute to the long-term trends. Also, the impact of regime shifts associated with the PDO may be sustained for decades. Overall, the differences in the trends inside and outside Monterey Bay are significant only during summer where largescale processes dominate offshore, and smaller-scale processes are important in and around the bay. Finally, our results suggest that waters inside the bay, although they co-vary with the waters further offshore, often appear to behave independently

**Keywords:** long-term trends, nonlinear trends, singular spectrum analysis, ensemble empirical mode decomposition, central California coast, Monterey Bay,

This study seeks to determine if the waters off the central California coast and Monterey Bay have warmed significantly during the 94-year period from 1920 to 2014 by examining sea surface temperatures (SSTs) inside the bay and outside the bay off the central California coast. The period of observation was terminated in December 2013 due to the unexpected arrival of a massive temperature anomaly

El Nino, Pacific decadal oscillation, coastal upwelling, regime shifts

Temperature Off the Coast of

Commensurate?

*Laurence C. Breaker*

based on the long-term trends.

**1.1 Introduction**

**1. Part I: background and preliminaries**

## **Chapter 3**
