6. Conclusion

This chapter combines the probability of success of every activity at each milestone of a project lifecycle based on a systems engineering process. The method uses an enterprise network model to study a manufacturing company's risk of undertaking a change project to re-design its logistics system in terms of planning, monitoring and validating of the network efficiency and criticality. Several key changes have been put in place and their risks in the system's lifecycle development are assessed within the enterprise network model to ensure greater probability of success.

The 3PE modelling framework provides a logical foundation for quantifying the risks of an engineering project. By assessing the expected level of achievable outcome in comparison against a 'desirable' project, this research has developed a novel method of generating a quantified risk indicator that can provide the basis for future planning improvements and hence the successful execution of complex engineering project. The use of a risk burndown plot allows an organisation to visualise the level of risk that has been burnt-down at each stage of lifecycle. In addition, the 3PE model provides a method for modelling different scenarios and the ability to assess their effectiveness at burning down risks.
