Risk Principles and Foundations

**3**

**Chapter 1**

*Ali Hessami*

**1. Introduction**

Introductory Chapter: A Systems

Throughout the ages, man's preoccupation with determining and controlling his destiny has sparked a keen interest in foretelling the future. This has strangely been based on a linear notion of time and event space, considering the future, a mere extension of the past. Another intriguing facet of this enterprise is probably driven by the maxim that "good news is no news"; therefore, more weight and prominence has been given to negative and downside forecasting, focusing on the detrimental and potentially catastrophic events. This perspective is tacitly echoed in the news media in which a significant proportion of events covered are of depressive, sinister, vile and sometimes tragic pedigree, almost to the detriment of the positivity and hope. The systematic approach to the understanding and judicious resolution of complex events practiced around the eighteenth century BC by Babylonian Asipus bears close resemblance with the risk-based paradigms in vogue nearly two millennia later. However, we argue that the public and private enterprises need to transcend beyond compliance with regulatory frameworks that typically set baseline bench-

The risk management industry in vogue today epitomises this unipolar and adversarial perspective by spending time, resource and effort in predicting and at best avoiding future incidents, accidents and their consequent losses. This is hardly a message of hope, progression and transformation. While addressing foreseeable future adversities is a rational and prudent measure, it lacks the motive force of advancement and success without which we will remain stagnant and at best free from harm or loss. We present a critique of the obsession with risk and set out a systematic and equitable framework for decision-making, supported by a new methodology for elicitation, representation, communication and resolution of real-world issues and problems. The systematic assessment principles developed here are proposed as a universal set of goals pertinent to assessment of risks arising from all systems

marks for acceptable performance and risk of adversity.

irrespective of type, size, origin, environment and function.

*"Almost every wise saying has an opposite one, no less wise, to balance it."*

Sea, founded the Persian religion of Zoroastrianism [1]. He is claimed to have received revelations from Ahura Mazda (the "Lord Wisdom") at an early age. The Persian scripture known as the Avesta contains hymns called Gathas, which are attributed to Zoroaster. His teachings portray the universe as a battle ground for

The prophet Zoroaster (630–550 BC), born in the mountains east of the Caspian

*G. Santayana*

**2. A question of balance**

Framework for Risk Assessment

### **Chapter 1**
