**3. Results and discussion**

#### **3.1. About GHG emissions in the context of livestock husbandry**

#### *3.1.1. Carbon dioxide (CO2 )*

CO<sup>2</sup> emitted by human consumption of cereals, meat, and milk, by livestock respiration and forage digestion, does not increase atmospheric CO<sup>2</sup> levels, as this is part of the natural carbon cycle. Not a single human- or livestock-born CO<sup>2</sup> molecule is additionally released into the atmosphere, as it has previously been captured through photosynthesis. The amount of CO<sup>2</sup> released annually by humans and livestock is offset by regrowing CO<sup>2</sup> -assimilating forages and crops. The only sources of *additional* CO<sup>2</sup> emissions caused by agriculture and livestock husbandry, beyond the natural carbon cycle, are:


Usage of fossil fuels is considerable in industrial livestock production systems which rely on forage cropping and feed transportation to the confined animals. In grazing systems, however, fuel consumption is rather low. Fossil fuel-related emission intensity of feed is less than 0.05 CO<sup>2</sup> kg−<sup>1</sup> of dry matter intake in grazing systems and around 0.3 in feedlots [4]. The widespread perception that only feedlot intensification can reduce the overall GHG emission intensity (per kg of beef produced) was recently challenged by Paige et al. [5] who found considerable soil organic carbon sequestration in certain grazing systems which even offset methane emissions from enteric fermentation. However, after any sort of land use change, the rate of soil carbon sequestration or of carbon loss is changing over time until a new equilibrium level is reached for each kind of land management [6].

Deforestation for pasture establishment causes a unique one-time CO<sup>2</sup> release from burning and decomposition of woody vegetation. For emission intensity calculations, deforestationborn emissions have to be shared out over the accumulated animal products generated during the total utilization period of the very pasture, which replaced the forest. This may easily be hundreds of years (as in the case of European grasslands). In the long run, total production accumulates to huge quantities and the deforestation part of the emission intensity (CO<sup>2</sup> emitted per kg of carcass weight) approaches zero (**Figure 2**).

Former IPCC author and reviewer Indur Goklany [13] estimated the global fertilization value

projects (United Nations Environmental Program) such as the initiative TEEB (The Economy of Ecosystems and Biodiversity for Agriculture and Food) categorically ignore the obvious

of a recent assessment of potential economic damages under UN mitigation targets [15]. The

warming thresholds of future emission scenarios, as proposed by the IPCC, are fully accepted and related to potential economic losses, differentiated by regions. However, this widely accepted approach does not represent an objective and trustworthy method (see Chapter 3.2).

180 ppm, low enough to stunt plant growth [16]. Therefore, quite a number of authors celebrate

fertilizing our crops and pastures, and is greening our deserts as it improves water use efficiency and therefore drought resistance of plants [17], this trace compound in the air (0.04% vol.) qualifies for being the most important, however limiting, nutrient for life. It is not the air pollutant as which it is seemingly exposed in the media and even by members of the scientific community.

is a transparent and odorless trace gas of which we are respiring about 5 kg every day.

*) and nitrous oxide (N2*

dynamics in the atmosphere has been worked out by Stephen Zwick in LA Chefs Column

however, some confusion in the quantification of the manmade part of their emissions from agro-ecosystems. The IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories [19] meticulously provide instructions, emission factors, and formulas to estimate the emissions from the various sources in managed ecosystems. Emissions from pristine or native ecosystems are explicitly not taken into account, as they are not manmade. However, all managed agroecosystems replaced native ecosystems at some stage in history which also had been sources

In order to get the effective manmade part of the emissions from managed ecosystems, one has to subtract the baseline emissions of the respective native ecosystems or of the pre-climate changemanaged ecosystems from those of today's agro-ecosystems (**Figure 4**). Omitting this correction

are consistently interpreted at a 100% level as an *additional* anthropogenic GHG source, just like

. As the mentioned IPCC guidelines [19] are taken for the ultimate reference,

contributes considerably to global food security. There are dozens of studies corroborating

in the atmosphere to 140 billion US\$ every year. Therefore, anthropogenic

as a fertilizer of our crops, pastures, and forests [14]. Nevertheless, UNEP

by fossil fuel burning to secure long-time survival of life on earth. Taking

is essential nutrient for life, is the only carbon source of all biomass, is

*O)*

) and nitrous oxide (N2

. An easily understandable overview on methane and nitrous oxide

and N2

emissions in their economic assessments. So do the authors

are entirely disregarded, whereas the global

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75

concentrations were higher than today. At

concentration reached as little as

O) also form part of

O (**Figure 3**); there is,

GHG emissions. Scientific publica-

and N2

O emissions

of manmade CO<sup>2</sup>

the efficiency of CO<sup>2</sup>

the recirculation of CO<sup>2</sup>

into account that CO<sup>2</sup>

CO<sup>2</sup>

*3.1.2. Non-CO2*

natural cycles, just like CO<sup>2</sup>

fossil fuel-born CO<sup>2</sup>

beneficial effects of manmade CO<sup>2</sup>

well-established desirable effects of manmade CO<sup>2</sup>

During most of the geological eras, atmospheric CO<sup>2</sup>

 *GHGs: methane (CH4*

Other agricultural GHGs such as methane (CH<sup>4</sup>

of considerable methane and nitrous oxide emissions.

leads to a systematic overestimation of farm-born non-CO<sup>2</sup>

tions generally do not take this consideration into account, as farm-born CH4

this severe methodological deficiency propagated through scientific literature.

[18]. There are natural and manmade sinks and sources for CH4

the last glaciation maximum, however, 18,000 years ago, CO<sup>2</sup>

CO<sup>2</sup>

Unfortunately, in published literature, emissions from deforestation are treated inconsistently. They are either neglected or charged entirely to the year of their appearance onto a product which is not necessarily related to the ongoing deforestation, such as total beef production in South America (e.g., **Figure 1**). For Europe, however, these emissions are usually ignored as they took place 500 years and longer ago.

In spite of ongoing deforestation, world vegetation cover, particularly in (semi-)arid regions, has improved in the past 30 years due to rising CO<sup>2</sup> , as a satellite image-based analysis by CSIRO Australia [7] and Geoscience Institutes in Denmark and Spain [8] has shown. Another study of 32 authors from 24 institutions from 8 countries, published on the NASA website, found a significant increase in the leaf area index on most of the earth's vegetated surface, during the past 35 years, for which increasing CO<sup>2</sup> emissions are considered responsible at a 70% level [9, 10].

In the Northern Hemisphere with big landmasses covered with vegetation, the annual oscillation of CO<sup>2</sup> rose considerably in the past decades. In 2013, 36% more CO<sup>2</sup> was captured in spring and summer and released again in wintertime than 45 years ago. The growing annual amplitude with more CO<sup>2</sup> in the air is a clear indicator of a tremendous vegetation response to increased CO<sup>2</sup> levels [11]. Fully in line with this finding is another paper published in *Nature* providing evidence that twentieth-century CO<sup>2</sup> emissions caused an over 30% increase in Global Terrestrial Gross Primary Production [12].

**Figure 2.** Modeling deforestation-born emission intensity (kg CO<sup>2</sup> emitted per kg of carcass weight produced).

Former IPCC author and reviewer Indur Goklany [13] estimated the global fertilization value of manmade CO<sup>2</sup> in the atmosphere to 140 billion US\$ every year. Therefore, anthropogenic CO<sup>2</sup> contributes considerably to global food security. There are dozens of studies corroborating the efficiency of CO<sup>2</sup> as a fertilizer of our crops, pastures, and forests [14]. Nevertheless, UNEP projects (United Nations Environmental Program) such as the initiative TEEB (The Economy of Ecosystems and Biodiversity for Agriculture and Food) categorically ignore the obvious beneficial effects of manmade CO<sup>2</sup> emissions in their economic assessments. So do the authors of a recent assessment of potential economic damages under UN mitigation targets [15]. The well-established desirable effects of manmade CO<sup>2</sup> are entirely disregarded, whereas the global warming thresholds of future emission scenarios, as proposed by the IPCC, are fully accepted and related to potential economic losses, differentiated by regions. However, this widely accepted approach does not represent an objective and trustworthy method (see Chapter 3.2).

During most of the geological eras, atmospheric CO<sup>2</sup> concentrations were higher than today. At the last glaciation maximum, however, 18,000 years ago, CO<sup>2</sup> concentration reached as little as 180 ppm, low enough to stunt plant growth [16]. Therefore, quite a number of authors celebrate the recirculation of CO<sup>2</sup> by fossil fuel burning to secure long-time survival of life on earth. Taking into account that CO<sup>2</sup> is essential nutrient for life, is the only carbon source of all biomass, is fertilizing our crops and pastures, and is greening our deserts as it improves water use efficiency and therefore drought resistance of plants [17], this trace compound in the air (0.04% vol.) qualifies for being the most important, however limiting, nutrient for life. It is not the air pollutant as which it is seemingly exposed in the media and even by members of the scientific community. CO<sup>2</sup> is a transparent and odorless trace gas of which we are respiring about 5 kg every day.

#### *3.1.2. Non-CO2 GHGs: methane (CH4 ) and nitrous oxide (N2 O)*

be hundreds of years (as in the case of European grasslands). In the long run, total production accumulates to huge quantities and the deforestation part of the emission intensity (CO<sup>2</sup>

Unfortunately, in published literature, emissions from deforestation are treated inconsistently. They are either neglected or charged entirely to the year of their appearance onto a product which is not necessarily related to the ongoing deforestation, such as total beef production in South America (e.g., **Figure 1**). For Europe, however, these emissions are usually

In spite of ongoing deforestation, world vegetation cover, particularly in (semi-)arid regions,

CSIRO Australia [7] and Geoscience Institutes in Denmark and Spain [8] has shown. Another study of 32 authors from 24 institutions from 8 countries, published on the NASA website, found a significant increase in the leaf area index on most of the earth's vegetated surface,

In the Northern Hemisphere with big landmasses covered with vegetation, the annual oscil-

spring and summer and released again in wintertime than 45 years ago. The growing annual

in the air is a clear indicator of a tremendous vegetation response to

levels [11]. Fully in line with this finding is another paper published in *Nature*

rose considerably in the past decades. In 2013, 36% more CO<sup>2</sup>

ted per kg of carcass weight) approaches zero (**Figure 2**).

ignored as they took place 500 years and longer ago.

has improved in the past 30 years due to rising CO<sup>2</sup>

during the past 35 years, for which increasing CO<sup>2</sup>

providing evidence that twentieth-century CO<sup>2</sup>

Global Terrestrial Gross Primary Production [12].

**Figure 2.** Modeling deforestation-born emission intensity (kg CO<sup>2</sup>

70% level [9, 10].

amplitude with more CO<sup>2</sup>

lation of CO<sup>2</sup>

74 Forage Groups

increased CO<sup>2</sup>

emit-

, as a satellite image-based analysis by

emissions are considered responsible at a

emissions caused an over 30% increase in

emitted per kg of carcass weight produced).

was captured in

Other agricultural GHGs such as methane (CH<sup>4</sup> ) and nitrous oxide (N2 O) also form part of natural cycles, just like CO<sup>2</sup> . An easily understandable overview on methane and nitrous oxide dynamics in the atmosphere has been worked out by Stephen Zwick in LA Chefs Column [18]. There are natural and manmade sinks and sources for CH4 and N2 O (**Figure 3**); there is, however, some confusion in the quantification of the manmade part of their emissions from agro-ecosystems. The IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories [19] meticulously provide instructions, emission factors, and formulas to estimate the emissions from the various sources in managed ecosystems. Emissions from pristine or native ecosystems are explicitly not taken into account, as they are not manmade. However, all managed agroecosystems replaced native ecosystems at some stage in history which also had been sources of considerable methane and nitrous oxide emissions.

In order to get the effective manmade part of the emissions from managed ecosystems, one has to subtract the baseline emissions of the respective native ecosystems or of the pre-climate changemanaged ecosystems from those of today's agro-ecosystems (**Figure 4**). Omitting this correction leads to a systematic overestimation of farm-born non-CO<sup>2</sup> GHG emissions. Scientific publications generally do not take this consideration into account, as farm-born CH4 and N2 O emissions are consistently interpreted at a 100% level as an *additional* anthropogenic GHG source, just like fossil fuel-born CO<sup>2</sup> . As the mentioned IPCC guidelines [19] are taken for the ultimate reference, this severe methodological deficiency propagated through scientific literature.

Temporarily waterlogged or flooded pristine ecosystems or those with a high density of wild ungulates might have emitted the same amount or even more methane per hectare and year than they did after land reclamation and utilization. So net anthropogenic methane emissions

The same applies to nitrous oxide, particularly in farming systems where no or little synthetic nitrogen fertilizer is used such as most pastoral systems: ecosystem management and herbage consumption by livestock might increase somewhat the turnover rate of nitrogen but does

Dung patches concentrate the nitrogen ingested from places scattered across the pasture. Nichols et al. [20] found no significant differences between emission factors from the patches and the rest of the pasture, which means the same amount of nitrous oxide is emitted whether or not the herbage passes livestock's intestines. However, the IPCC and FAO do consider mistakenly all nitrous oxide leaking from manure as livestock-born and therefore manmade. Comparing, for instance, sown grassland with native bushland in the Gran Chaco, which contains many leguminous species, it becomes evident that nitrogen stocks are higher and more nitrogen is circulated annually in native bushland than in sown pasture (**Figure 5**). Therefore, in spite of the presence of grazing animals in the grassland, there is likely more nitrous oxide produced from bushland than from grassland after bush clearing and pasture establishment.

O is emitted as a by-product

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from certain agro-ecosystems could be zero or even assume a negative value.

not increase the quantity of nitrogen in circulation from which N<sup>2</sup>

**Figure 5.** Ecosystemic nitrogen stocks in grassland and bushland (Chaco, Paraguay).

from nitrification and denitrification.

**Figure 3.** Natural and anthropogenic sources and sinks of the non-CO<sup>2</sup> GHGs methane and nitrous oxide.

**Figure 4.** How to estimate correctly manmade non-CO<sup>2</sup> GHG emissions from agro-ecosystems.

Temporarily waterlogged or flooded pristine ecosystems or those with a high density of wild ungulates might have emitted the same amount or even more methane per hectare and year than they did after land reclamation and utilization. So net anthropogenic methane emissions from certain agro-ecosystems could be zero or even assume a negative value.

The same applies to nitrous oxide, particularly in farming systems where no or little synthetic nitrogen fertilizer is used such as most pastoral systems: ecosystem management and herbage consumption by livestock might increase somewhat the turnover rate of nitrogen but does not increase the quantity of nitrogen in circulation from which N<sup>2</sup> O is emitted as a by-product from nitrification and denitrification.

Dung patches concentrate the nitrogen ingested from places scattered across the pasture. Nichols et al. [20] found no significant differences between emission factors from the patches and the rest of the pasture, which means the same amount of nitrous oxide is emitted whether or not the herbage passes livestock's intestines. However, the IPCC and FAO do consider mistakenly all nitrous oxide leaking from manure as livestock-born and therefore manmade.

Comparing, for instance, sown grassland with native bushland in the Gran Chaco, which contains many leguminous species, it becomes evident that nitrogen stocks are higher and more nitrogen is circulated annually in native bushland than in sown pasture (**Figure 5**). Therefore, in spite of the presence of grazing animals in the grassland, there is likely more nitrous oxide produced from bushland than from grassland after bush clearing and pasture establishment.

**Figure 5.** Ecosystemic nitrogen stocks in grassland and bushland (Chaco, Paraguay).

**Figure 3.** Natural and anthropogenic sources and sinks of the non-CO<sup>2</sup>

76 Forage Groups

**Figure 4.** How to estimate correctly manmade non-CO<sup>2</sup>

GHGs methane and nitrous oxide.

GHG emissions from agro-ecosystems.

Hence, instead of charging the emission intensity of South American Beef with 23 kg of CO<sup>2</sup> equ. kg−<sup>1</sup> of CW (carcass weight) for nitrous oxide emissions from animal feces (**Figure 1**), there should rather be a negative value when corrected for the emissions from the respective pre-land use pristine ecosystem. Similar thoughts can be made for the enteric fermentation and deforestation part of emission intensity charges.

#### *3.1.3. Global methane emissions and livestock*

The rise of methane emissions beginning around 1850 coincides perfectly with the progressive use of fossil energy. But the methane growth rate fell to zero at the turn of the millennium as shown by Quirk [21], cited from [22]. The stabilization of methane emissions in the 1990s is very likely associated with the adoption of modern technology in fossil fuel production and use, particularly the replacement of leaking pipelines in the former Soviet Union [21].

Between 1990 and 2005, the world cattle population rose by more than 100 million head (according to FAO statistics). During this time, atmospheric methane concentration stabilized completely. These empirical observations show that livestock is not a significant player in the global methane budget [23]. This appreciation has been corroborated by Schwietzke et al. [24] who suggested that methane emissions from fossil fuel industry and natural geological seepage have been 60–110% greater than previously thought.

When looking to the global distribution of average methane concentrations as measured by ENVISAT (Environmental Satellite) [25] and the geographical distribution of domestic animal density, respectively [1], no discernible relationship between both criteria was found [22].

There is, however, a growing divergence between observed and modeled temperatures. In

**Figure 6.** Domestic livestock-born methane emissions are of negligible importance for the global geographical methane

Critical scientists are not surprised of this reality, showing that model validation has pitiably failed. In Table 2.11 of the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report AR4 [30], 16 variables were identified as global warming-forcing agents and used for modeling. The level of understanding for 11 of them is specified as "low to very low." Under such premises, reliable modeling is impossible. Yet the IPCC comes up with a 90–95% certainty that human activity has been the

logical implication of this finding is that, in the past, climate models systematically exaggerated temperature projections into the future. Moreover, for the time between 1993 and 2015,

Gervais could not find any discernible correlation between atmospheric concentration of CO<sup>2</sup> and mean global temperature anomaly in the low stratosphere (as measured by satellites), where according to the radiative-convective models, the most marked signature of temperature change was predicted [11]. Recent investigations support the idea of biases in IPCC climate model simulations, most of which show spurious warming associated with its alleged

Furthermore, a growing number of peer-reviewed papers give evidence of pronounced warm periods during the Holocene, since the end of the last ice age, 10,000 years ago, in spite of

main single driver of the slight warming observed during the past century.

impacts such as glacier melting and sea level rise [32–36].

According to Gervais [11], published estimates of climate sensitivity to CO<sup>2</sup>

levels, observed temperatures are ways below most published

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79

doubling, are in rapid decline since the turn of the millennium. The

was emitted since the beginning of the industrial revolution,

levels in those times [28]. Gernot Patzelt from Innsbruck

, as defined as

spite of steadily increasing CO<sup>2</sup>

distribution [25, 26].

temperature rise with CO<sup>2</sup>

when about 40% of total CO<sup>2</sup>

the preindustrial atmospheric CO<sup>2</sup>

temperature projections (**Figure 7**).

Although the most recent estimates of yearly livestock-born global methane emissions came out 11% higher than earlier estimates [26], we still cannot see any discernible livestock fingerprint in the global methane distribution (**Figure 6**). The idea of a considerable livestock contribution to the global methane budget relies on theoretical bottom-up calculations. Even in recent studies, e.g., [27], just the emissions per animal are measured and multiplied by the number of animals. Ecosystemic interactions and baselines over time and space are generally ignored [28]. Although quite a number of publications, such as the excellent most recent FCRN report (Food Climate Research Network) [29], do discuss extensively ecosystemic sequestration potentials and natural sources of GHGs, they do not account for baseline emissions from the respective native ecosystems when assessing manmade emissions of non-CO<sup>2</sup> GHGs from managed ecosystems. This implies a systematic overestimation of the warming potential, particularly when assuming considerable climate sensitivity to GHG emissions. However, even LA Chefs Column [18], in spite of assuming a major global warming impact of methane, came to the conclusion: "When methane is put into a broader rather than a reductive context, we all have to stop blaming cattle ('cows') for climate change."

#### **3.2. About the climate response to manmade GHG emissions**

Having shown considerable beneficial effects of manmade CO<sup>2</sup> emissions on nature, agriculture, and global food security and having shown severe IPCC and FAO deficiencies in the quantification of the manmade part of non-CO<sup>2</sup> GHG emissions, we need to have a closer look to the alleged evil human emissions of natural GHGs are accused of: causing climate change through global warming.

Hence, instead of charging the emission intensity of South American Beef with 23 kg of CO<sup>2</sup>

there should rather be a negative value when corrected for the emissions from the respective pre-land use pristine ecosystem. Similar thoughts can be made for the enteric fermentation

The rise of methane emissions beginning around 1850 coincides perfectly with the progressive use of fossil energy. But the methane growth rate fell to zero at the turn of the millennium as shown by Quirk [21], cited from [22]. The stabilization of methane emissions in the 1990s is very likely associated with the adoption of modern technology in fossil fuel production and

Between 1990 and 2005, the world cattle population rose by more than 100 million head (according to FAO statistics). During this time, atmospheric methane concentration stabilized completely. These empirical observations show that livestock is not a significant player in the global methane budget [23]. This appreciation has been corroborated by Schwietzke et al. [24] who suggested that methane emissions from fossil fuel industry and natural geological

When looking to the global distribution of average methane concentrations as measured by ENVISAT (Environmental Satellite) [25] and the geographical distribution of domestic animal density, respectively [1], no discernible relationship between both criteria was found [22].

Although the most recent estimates of yearly livestock-born global methane emissions came out 11% higher than earlier estimates [26], we still cannot see any discernible livestock fingerprint in the global methane distribution (**Figure 6**). The idea of a considerable livestock contribution to the global methane budget relies on theoretical bottom-up calculations. Even in recent studies, e.g., [27], just the emissions per animal are measured and multiplied by the number of animals. Ecosystemic interactions and baselines over time and space are generally ignored [28]. Although quite a number of publications, such as the excellent most recent FCRN report (Food Climate Research Network) [29], do discuss extensively ecosystemic sequestration potentials and natural sources of GHGs, they do not account for baseline emissions from the respective native ecosystems when assessing manmade emissions of non-CO<sup>2</sup> GHGs from managed ecosystems. This implies a systematic overestimation of the warming potential, particularly when assuming considerable climate sensitivity to GHG emissions. However, even LA Chefs Column [18], in spite of assuming a major global warming impact of methane, came to the conclusion: "When methane is put into a broader rather than a reductive

ture, and global food security and having shown severe IPCC and FAO deficiencies in the

to the alleged evil human emissions of natural GHGs are accused of: causing climate change

use, particularly the replacement of leaking pipelines in the former Soviet Union [21].

and deforestation part of emission intensity charges.

seepage have been 60–110% greater than previously thought.

context, we all have to stop blaming cattle ('cows') for climate change."

**3.2. About the climate response to manmade GHG emissions**

Having shown considerable beneficial effects of manmade CO<sup>2</sup>

quantification of the manmade part of non-CO<sup>2</sup>

through global warming.

*3.1.3. Global methane emissions and livestock*

of CW (carcass weight) for nitrous oxide emissions from animal feces (**Figure 1**),

equ. kg−<sup>1</sup>

78 Forage Groups


emissions on nature, agricul-

GHG emissions, we need to have a closer look

**Figure 6.** Domestic livestock-born methane emissions are of negligible importance for the global geographical methane distribution [25, 26].

There is, however, a growing divergence between observed and modeled temperatures. In spite of steadily increasing CO<sup>2</sup> levels, observed temperatures are ways below most published temperature projections (**Figure 7**).

Critical scientists are not surprised of this reality, showing that model validation has pitiably failed. In Table 2.11 of the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report AR4 [30], 16 variables were identified as global warming-forcing agents and used for modeling. The level of understanding for 11 of them is specified as "low to very low." Under such premises, reliable modeling is impossible. Yet the IPCC comes up with a 90–95% certainty that human activity has been the main single driver of the slight warming observed during the past century.

According to Gervais [11], published estimates of climate sensitivity to CO<sup>2</sup> , as defined as temperature rise with CO<sup>2</sup> doubling, are in rapid decline since the turn of the millennium. The logical implication of this finding is that, in the past, climate models systematically exaggerated temperature projections into the future. Moreover, for the time between 1993 and 2015, when about 40% of total CO<sup>2</sup> was emitted since the beginning of the industrial revolution, Gervais could not find any discernible correlation between atmospheric concentration of CO<sup>2</sup> and mean global temperature anomaly in the low stratosphere (as measured by satellites), where according to the radiative-convective models, the most marked signature of temperature change was predicted [11]. Recent investigations support the idea of biases in IPCC climate model simulations, most of which show spurious warming associated with its alleged impacts such as glacier melting and sea level rise [32–36].

Furthermore, a growing number of peer-reviewed papers give evidence of pronounced warm periods during the Holocene, since the end of the last ice age, 10,000 years ago, in spite of the preindustrial atmospheric CO<sup>2</sup> levels in those times [28]. Gernot Patzelt from Innsbruck

from stalagmites in the Alps [39] and tree line investigations in Lapland [40] gave similar

The IPCC faces considerable problems of explaining the numerous preindustrial warm periods: among the radiative forcing components as published in the latest IPCC report in 2013

nent bars and hence are supposed to be the key drivers of global warming. On the other hand, the solar influence has been reduced to a tiny effect, just representing the observed small

**Figure 9.** Natural and anthropogenic global warming forcing agents as defined and quantified by the IPCC (Figures 8-17 from [43]). These are incompatible with the well-documented prominent warm periods, which occurred in spite of

, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions are represented with promi-

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81

results, just as did ice core analyses from Greenland [41] and from the Antarctica [42].

[43], anthropogenic CO<sup>2</sup>

preindustrial CO<sup>2</sup>

levels.

variation of direct solar irradiation (**Figure 9**).

**Figure 7.** Midtropospheric temperature variations: observations (by satellite and balloons) versus IPCC models [31].

University [37] recovered ancient tree trunks conserved in moors and glaciers well above the present day tree lines, all across the Alps (**Figure 8**).

Patzelt irrefutably concluded that 65% of the Holocene summer temperatures had been warmer than today because the tree lines were at higher altitudes than today. Other studies

**Figure 8.** These tree trunks uncovered from retreating glaciers are irrefutable witnesses of extended preindustrial warm periods as they grew up well above the present-day tree lines [38].

from stalagmites in the Alps [39] and tree line investigations in Lapland [40] gave similar results, just as did ice core analyses from Greenland [41] and from the Antarctica [42].

The IPCC faces considerable problems of explaining the numerous preindustrial warm periods: among the radiative forcing components as published in the latest IPCC report in 2013 [43], anthropogenic CO<sup>2</sup> , methane, and nitrous oxide emissions are represented with prominent bars and hence are supposed to be the key drivers of global warming. On the other hand, the solar influence has been reduced to a tiny effect, just representing the observed small variation of direct solar irradiation (**Figure 9**).

University [37] recovered ancient tree trunks conserved in moors and glaciers well above the

**Figure 7.** Midtropospheric temperature variations: observations (by satellite and balloons) versus IPCC models [31].

Patzelt irrefutably concluded that 65% of the Holocene summer temperatures had been warmer than today because the tree lines were at higher altitudes than today. Other studies

**Figure 8.** These tree trunks uncovered from retreating glaciers are irrefutable witnesses of extended preindustrial warm

present day tree lines, all across the Alps (**Figure 8**).

80 Forage Groups

periods as they grew up well above the present-day tree lines [38].

**Figure 9.** Natural and anthropogenic global warming forcing agents as defined and quantified by the IPCC (Figures 8-17 from [43]). These are incompatible with the well-documented prominent warm periods, which occurred in spite of preindustrial CO<sup>2</sup> levels.

These global warming forcing agents defined by the IPCC [43] obviously ignore the potent indirect solar influences produced by solar magnetic activity associated with sunspot occurrence. Lockwood et al. [44] clearly showed the relevance of solar activity indicators for the heliospheric cosmic ray modulation potential and the associated cooling and warming of the earth during the past 400 years. The causal chain between solar magnetic activity, cosmic ray flux hitting the earth, cloud formation potential, and mean global temperature has been shown by Svensmark and Friis-Christensen [45] and was convincingly defended against premature critics [46].

**Author details**

Albrecht Glatzle

Filadelfia, Paraguay

i3461e.pdf

ing" from rising CO<sup>2</sup>

s41559-017-0081

**References**

Address all correspondence to: albrecht.glatzle@gmail.com

2006. http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/a0701e/a0701e00.HTM

nclimate2081. https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2081

2014;**20**(9):2708-2711. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12561

Change. 2016;**6**:791-795. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3004

2013/Deserts-greening-from-rising-CO2

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83

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