**2. Methodological framework**

The methodological approach of this study starts with a perfunctory examination of land use patterns in the Amazon. We examine two distinct models of land use pathways that in general terms may direct and define the maintenance or not of the Amazon forest. The first model is characterized by expansion of protected areas in the Amazon. It has been labeled 'The First Way'. In the other model, it is prevalent intensive natural resources exploitation. It has been labeled 'The Second Way'. In Section 3 of this chapter we briefly assess the overall results of these models in land use (for a comprehensive review, see [2]). We present updated literature data in support for current trends in land use changes, such as planned infrastructure, policies and evidence of ongoing land use processes and change.

We pose two research questions to guide the next phase of the study: Overall, current and planned patterns of land use are environmentally sustainable in the long run? If not, what would be an alternative way? The answers are developed from the basic concepts proposed by [2] for the so-called Amazonia Third Way (A3W), which is based upon a novel economic model. This rests on an innovative, knowledge-based standing forest-flowing rivers bio-economy, valuing the Amazon's renewable natural resources, biological and biomimetic assets, environmental services and biodiverse molecules and materials. A conceptual model of the A3W is proposed with the main drivers for its planning and implementation. Two of these drivers, namely Technological Drivers and Capacity Development, were considered key to the construction of A3W and are further developed in this work. The technologies of the 4th Industrial Revolution were coupled with core A3W guidelines, leading to the conceptual definition of the Amazonia 4.0. **Figure 1** shows a diagram of the methodological approach used in this work.

a tipping point than previously thought. Recent analysis [1] lends support to the idea that the whole Amazon system might flip to second stable climate-vegetation equilibrium, with degraded savannas covering most of the central, southern and eastern portions of the basin. The drivers of such change are deforestation, climate change and increased forest fires. Given the simultaneous and synergistic impact of these drivers of change, total deforestation must

the biggest unresolved global climate challenge. Without reductions in rainforest burning, including in the Amazon, international goals called for in ratified international Conventions

The heightened critical risk to the Amazon forests calls for intensifying the search for disruptive socioeconomic alternatives and transformations. For many decades, contradicting strategies to develop the Amazon have been at work: conservation (we call it the *'First Way'*) versus resource-intensive development (which we call the *'Second Way'*). Considerable efforts were made by successive governments and by NGOs to reconcile those two ways through agricultural 'sustainable intensification',—albeit with meager results. The question therefore

We argue that a radically different *'Third Way'* for sustainable development of the Amazon is within reach. We propose to utilize modern technologies of the 4th Industrial Revolution to harness the biological and biomimetic assets of the Amazon's biodiversity. And we postulate that this *Third Way* can support a standing forest-flowing river bio-economy while being

The methodological approach of this study starts with a perfunctory examination of land use patterns in the Amazon. We examine two distinct models of land use pathways that in general terms may direct and define the maintenance or not of the Amazon forest. The first model is characterized by expansion of protected areas in the Amazon. It has been labeled 'The First Way'. In the other model, it is prevalent intensive natural resources exploitation. It has been labeled 'The Second Way'. In Section 3 of this chapter we briefly assess the overall results of these models in land use (for a comprehensive review, see [2]). We present updated literature data in support for current trends in land use changes, such as planned infrastructure, policies

We pose two research questions to guide the next phase of the study: Overall, current and planned patterns of land use are environmentally sustainable in the long run? If not, what would be an alternative way? The answers are developed from the basic concepts proposed by [2] for the so-called Amazonia Third Way (A3W), which is based upon a novel economic model. This rests on an innovative, knowledge-based standing forest-flowing rivers bio-economy, valuing the Amazon's renewable natural resources, biological and biomimetic assets,

remains how to unveil the potential of a forest-biodiversity economy in the Amazon.

emissions from forest burning may well be

not exceed 20–25% to avoid transgressing a potentially irreversible tipping point.

Global climate considerations also matter: CO2

184 Land Use - Assessing the Past, Envisioning the Future

socially inclusive [2].

**2. Methodological framework**

and evidence of ongoing land use processes and change.

for climate, biodiversity and water protection cannot be reached.

**Figure 1.** Methodological diagram for the conceptual development of the Amazonia Third Way.
