**Impacts and Adaption**

**Chapter 5**

Provisional chapter

**The Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability**

DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.80321

Climate change can seriously affect the Middle East region by reduced and erratic rainfall. Formulating appropriate coping policies should account for local effects and changing flows interconnecting spatial units. We apply statistical downscaling techniques of coarse global circulation models to predict future rainfall patterns in the Yarmouk Basin, using a linear regression to extrapolate these results to the entire Jordan River Basin (JRB). Using a detailed water economy model for the JRB we predict rainfall patterns to evaluate the impact of climate change on agriculture and groundwater recharge. For the JRB, rainfall in 2050 will be around 10% lower than present precipitation, but with substantial spatial spreading. An overall reduction of net revenue from crop cultivation is estimated at 150 million USD, with major losses in Israel, Jordan, and the West Bank; Syrian revenues will slightly increase. The recharge of groundwater is affected negatively, and outflow to the

As is well-known, the current situation in the Jordan River Basin (JRB) is characterized by water scarcity and a history of water-related conflicts. The World Resources Institute (WRI) [1] classifies the JRB riparian countries among the most water-stressed countries in the world with a ratio of withdrawals to supply of more than 80%. Jordan is considered the poorest country in terms of water resources and most of its land is considered to be dry land. Except for the northwestern highlands, 90% of the country receives less than 200 mm rainfall per year with an

> © 2016 The Author(s). Licensee InTech. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and eproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

© 2018 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,

distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Dead Sea is substantially lower, leading to further increases in salinization.

Keywords: Jordan basin, water economy model, climate change

The Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability

**and Recharge of Aquifers in the Jordan River Basin**

and Recharge of Aquifers in the Jordan River Basin

Fayez Abdulla, Wim van Veen, Hani Abu Qdais,

Fayez Abdulla, Wim van Veen, Hani Abu Qdais,

Lia van Wesenbeeck and Ben Sonneveld

Lia van Wesenbeeck and Ben Sonneveld

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.80321

Abstract

1. Introduction

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

#### **The Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability and Recharge of Aquifers in the Jordan River Basin** The Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability and Recharge of Aquifers in the Jordan River Basin

DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.80321

Fayez Abdulla, Wim van Veen, Hani Abu Qdais, Lia van Wesenbeeck and Ben Sonneveld Fayez Abdulla, Wim van Veen, Hani Abu Qdais, Lia van Wesenbeeck and Ben Sonneveld

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.80321

#### Abstract

Climate change can seriously affect the Middle East region by reduced and erratic rainfall. Formulating appropriate coping policies should account for local effects and changing flows interconnecting spatial units. We apply statistical downscaling techniques of coarse global circulation models to predict future rainfall patterns in the Yarmouk Basin, using a linear regression to extrapolate these results to the entire Jordan River Basin (JRB). Using a detailed water economy model for the JRB we predict rainfall patterns to evaluate the impact of climate change on agriculture and groundwater recharge. For the JRB, rainfall in 2050 will be around 10% lower than present precipitation, but with substantial spatial spreading. An overall reduction of net revenue from crop cultivation is estimated at 150 million USD, with major losses in Israel, Jordan, and the West Bank; Syrian revenues will slightly increase. The recharge of groundwater is affected negatively, and outflow to the Dead Sea is substantially lower, leading to further increases in salinization.

Keywords: Jordan basin, water economy model, climate change

### 1. Introduction

As is well-known, the current situation in the Jordan River Basin (JRB) is characterized by water scarcity and a history of water-related conflicts. The World Resources Institute (WRI) [1] classifies the JRB riparian countries among the most water-stressed countries in the world with a ratio of withdrawals to supply of more than 80%. Jordan is considered the poorest country in terms of water resources and most of its land is considered to be dry land. Except for the northwestern highlands, 90% of the country receives less than 200 mm rainfall per year with an

© 2016 The Author(s). Licensee InTech. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and eproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2018 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

uneven distribution over regions and high fluctuation from year to year [2]. The population in the JRB region suffers from repeated water shortages which are more severe during the hot summers. Households devote considerable efforts to ensure their daily supply of water. In rural areas, the scarcity of water is among the main difficulties encountered by farmers and in urban areas, tap water is sometimes of bad quality, with frequent shortages. Households are forced to buy bottled or tank water at higher prices for their essential needs.

and Jordan. The second challenge is met by using a water economy model of the JRB, which describes the natural and controlled flows in volume and quantity for Jordan River Basin as

The Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability and Recharge of Aquifers in the Jordan River Basin

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.80321

67

The remainder of this chapter is organized as follows. Section 2 gives a brief description of the structure, empirical basis, and calibration of the JRB water economy model. Section 3 presents the scenario formulation, including downscaling. Section 4 reports on the impact of climate

Theoretically, the JRB model is a special case of the general class of welfare optimization models [13], where the innovative part is the inclusion of hydrology as central component of the production technology. Hence, control of flows (extraction of groundwater; use of water by humans; animals; and agriculture; transfer of water through canals; wastewater treatment and desalinization) conforms to basic principles of microeconomics with constraints that respect conservation. For economics, this implies that commodity balances hold; for hydrology, mass

In its representation of the water economy of the JRB, the model distinguishes 48 districts, and 26 (two-weekly) time steps. Water can flow within and between five different layers. These comprise a surface layer on land for natural flows, a surface layer on land representing anthropogenic influences on water, a river layer, a root zone, and a layer representing the aquifer zones in the basin. Finally, next to clean water, the model can accommodate three types of pollutants: salinity, biological oxygen demand (BOD), and nitrate. The combination of place, time, layer, and quality defines a "cell" within the model, which acts as a source and destination of flows, representing the high level of interconnectedness of flows within the JRB.

Figure 1 provides a schematic overview of flows within the JRB between the main layers, as well as flows entering the basin as whole (rainfall and lateral flows from outside the basin) or leaving the basin (evaporation, lateral flows leaving the basin). In the model, each of the layers and connections with other layers is modeled in detail, following hydrological laws as well as reflecting anthropogenic activity (pumping, irrigation, use by humans, livestock, industry and

As mentioned before, the JRB water economy model represents pollution of three specific types —salinity, nitrate, and BOD. Instead of using a set of attributes to represent water quality in each of these three dimensions at each point in time and space, the model represents these pollutants as flows, for which balances must hold, as for pure water. Hence, conceptually, pollutants are represented as flows with standard concentrations: 25 g/l for Cl, 2 g/l for NO3, and 10 g/l for

municipalities, sewage, waste water treatment and reuse, and water harvesting).

balances for pure water as well as for pollutants dissolved in water are maintained.

change and Section 5 concludes and indicates pathways for further research.

2. The Jordan River Basin (JRB) model

2.1. Schematic representation of flows within the model

2.2. Water quality

hydrological entity [13].

The severe water-related inequalities [3] are important drivers behind the regional conflicts and have created long-term political instability in the Middle East [4]. Rivalry has persisted over time as an imminent problem that has often been settled through force rather than peaceful cooperation [5]. Individual, uncoordinated actions by all riparian states have resulted in a dramatic change in water flows in the Jordan River Basin. According to United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UN-ESCWA) and Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR) [6], annual discharge of water into the Dead Sea under near-natural conditions would be approximately 1300 million m<sup>3</sup> , but man-made interventions along the Jordan River and its tributaries have reduced this to 20–200 million m3 at present. The massive reduction in water availability, particularly in the lower Jordan area, has fueled disputes between the riparian countries. Such disputes continue to obfuscate the relationships between Israel and Lebanon and between Israel and Syria [7]. Looking at the future, prospects for the region seem to be bleak. In the short run, the Syrian crisis with its large regional impact poses a serious threat to livelihoods and development. In the long run, climate change and a rapidly expanding population will continue to put more pressure on water resources.

Climate change is projected to have large impacts on weather patterns across the globe in the future. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 5th Assessment Report (AR5) noted that over the period 1800–2012, the average global temperature increased by 0.85C. Moreover, Flato et al. [8] indicated that precipitation patterns deviate more frequently from long-term average trends in both volume and erraticism with adverse impacts on the society [9]. Realities of climate change are underpinned by Easterling et al. [10] who related climate change to increased drought incidence, flooding hazards, and reduced biodiversity. This clearly justifies calls for action to mitigate deteriorative effects of climate change. In this study, the focus is on the impact of climate change and water availability for households, effects on recharge to the aquifers, and on economic revenue in the Jordan River Basin, which as was argued above, is an area in the world where water scarcity is a major threat to economic growth and political stability.

Before we come up with practical and well-informed policy solutions, two challenges need to be addressed. First, the low resolution of global climate change models (100–500 km) ignores in-grid variability like complex topographical features and is, therefore, of limited use for impact studies [11]. Second, climate change effects cannot be restricted to changes in rainfall and temperature patterns alone but require a systemic response that accounts for spatial and temporal diversity of the natural resource base, interconnectedness of surface, and subsurface flows and influence on availability of water in volume and quality.

The first issue is addressed by using downscaled precipitation and climate parameters of Abdulla et al. [12] for meteorological stations in the Yarmouk Basin, covering parts of Syria and Jordan. The second challenge is met by using a water economy model of the JRB, which describes the natural and controlled flows in volume and quantity for Jordan River Basin as hydrological entity [13].

The remainder of this chapter is organized as follows. Section 2 gives a brief description of the structure, empirical basis, and calibration of the JRB water economy model. Section 3 presents the scenario formulation, including downscaling. Section 4 reports on the impact of climate change and Section 5 concludes and indicates pathways for further research.
