**4. Policies for mitigating adverse secondary impacts**

The second policymaking opportunity resulting from LENR's changing landscape is to address potential adverse secondary impacts with proactive planning. Broad deployment of LENR for energy supply may be expected to have major secondary impacts as a disruptive technology [32, 33]. Direct impacts are anticipated for all phases of the energy chain—supply, transport, storage, and consumption. Indirect impacts will be felt most by the components of society that are closely tied to the energy cycle, such as the affected sectors of the workforce and the communities that rely on energy activities (e.g., coal mining towns).

Technology Assessment (TA) is a mature and well-established method for addressing both direct and indirect secondary impacts and may readily be applied to cold fusion case [34, 35]. The stages of a TA application are generally as follows:

**1.** Identify impacts

Three goals must be achieved for LENR and its benefits to be realized—more consistent reproducibility, fuller explanation of the process, and demonstration of its ability to produce usable amounts of energy. These goals may be achieved with affirmative policies for

The first policymaking opportunity resulting from LENR's changing landscape is revision of current policies for LENR support. Updates in these policies may best be accomplished in a framework of evidence-based policymaking (EBP) [30, 31]. The policy options (PO) are:

**5.** Crash program, possibly like the Manhattan Project during World War II, to realize LENR's

Selecting the alternative that best serves the public interest may be challenging because of the history and continuing rejection of LENR. Policymaking is further complicated by a need for improved reproducibility and a better explanation of the LENR phenomenon. To deal with these complications, LENR policy may be analyzed and established in terms of level of

The LOE may be further interpreted for decisions on appropriate policy responses. At least a preponderance of evidence may reasonably be inferred from the large number researchers, the major body of evidence that has been accumulated, and the progress in achieving LENR explanation. Clear and convincing evidence is indicated by the emergence of LENR-dedicated research centers at several universities and by the significant number of proposed devices that purport to produce energy from LENR. When sufficient reproducibility and an adequate explanation are achieved, it may be asserted that the evidence is sufficient to demonstrate

Policy responses to these proposed levels of evidence may also be suggested. If LENR is indicated with a preponderance of evidence, it should be fully reinstated and pursued with other emerging energy technologies. If there is clear and convincing evidence, a higher level

**1.** Discontinue research entirely (unlikely given the continuing interest)

**3.** Reinstatement and development with other emerging energy technologies

increased R&D support.

78 New Trends in Nuclear Science

benefits.

evidence (LOE) for its existence:

**3. Policy updates for LENR support**

**2.** Business as usual—continued marginalization

**1.** Preponderance of evidence (>50% probability)

**2.** Clear and convincing evidence (>70%)

**3.** Beyond a reasonable doubt (>90%)

LENR beyond a reasonable doubt.

**4.** Enhanced support, perhaps on a par with hot fusion


**Figure 2.** Illustration of need for policies to mitigate adverse secondary impacts resulting from the changing LENR landscape. ASI—Adverse secondary impacts; TA—Technology assessment methodology; MM—Mitigating measures; MP—Overall mitigation plan.

**5.2. Integration of LENR policies among agencies, nations, and the private sector**

may become increasingly important as LENR deployment progresses.

deployment. GP—Guidance for mitigation planning.

updates in the public and private aspects of LENR development.

changes or updates among these international entities.

A focus on integrated LENR policymaking results in opportunities in several other policy areas. Public agency policy integration (PA) may take place at the local, state, and national levels and requires alignment and effective communication of the policymaking entities within the agencies. Formal arrangements, such as inter-agency agreements, may be used, or integration may be achieved by informal measures, such as regular inter-agency meetings. While these measures have been used to some extent by agencies for various issues in the past, they

**Figure 3.** The pace of mitigation planning is guided by policies for LENR development and the resulting rate of its

Integrated Policymaking for Realizing Benefits and Mitigating Secondary Impacts of Cold Fusion

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LENR development—and dealing with its impacts—may be enhanced with stronger integration between the public and private components of society (PP). For example, LENR may benefit from government policies and measures to address "market failures," in a similar vein to current laws and regulations for environmental protection. Existing programs, such as small-business research support and provisions for technology transfer from government labs to privately held companies, could increase in importance if the government becomes more active in LENR research. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) may provide another vehicle for supporting LENR development and realization. An improved stance among patent and trademark entities would also substantially enhance efforts in the private sector to realize the benefits of LENR. Opportunities may be found for integrating these policy changes and

At the international level, programs may be established for supporting LENR research (IN). As LENR reaches the stage of worldwide deployment, bilateral and multi-lateral agreements may be made or updated to enhance its availability. For example, the United Nations may implement programs for making small LENR units available in a dispersed manner in Third World nations. World Bank loans may be made to nations needing support in acquiring LENR technology for the benefit of human health and the environment. The World Trade Organization may consider LENR and its humanitarian benefits for special rulemaking to enhance availability worldwide. Again, opportunities may be found for integration of policy


TA enables proactive planning to mitigate impacts and has ample precedent for application to energy-related issues [36, 37]. **Figure 2** summarizes how the changing LENR landscape leads to the need for policies for mitigating adverse secondary impacts in addition to required policy updates for supporting LENR development. Adverse secondary impacts (ASI) stem from the need for policy updates (NPU) and are addressed by technology assessment methodology (TA). Mitigating measures (MM) are defined, leading to an overall mitigation plan (MP).
