**4. Discussion**

The examined scenario of ice retraction should not be considered as topical only in the Svalbard area. Many measurements and experimental campaigns have been made in the eastern part of the Arctic Ocean, close to Beaufort Sea, where the sea ice cover has retreated significantly. Due to this dramatic retreat, especially in September 2012, 5 m height waves were observed in the middle of the basin. These were extremely large waves compared to what has been observed previously, testifying the assumption and the prediction of wave height enhancement due to ice surface shrinkage [2].

Apart from experimental campaigns and measurements, other studies using prognostic models have shown significant changes in estimated wave heights. These changes are undoubtedly linked to the increase of the fetch length created by the free-ice sea area. What is worth mentioning here is that the results showed also a rise in surface winds in the Arctic area, mainly in Kara, Laptev, and East Siberian Seas. On the contrary, at the western part of the Arctic region, in the Barents Sea, a drop of the winds and consequently the wave heights were observed [6].

Moreover, research supports the assumption that in areas where the ice coverage is shrinking, the wave phenomena will change. Results have shown a growth in wind speeds and an increase of the frequency of occurrence of waves of 2 m height. On the other hand, the same studies have shown that the change in extreme wave heights is marginal. The areas where the change is more significant are those of the northern parts of Barents Sea, Kara, and Chukchi Seas, whereas, in areas where the sea is already ice free during September and October, like the North Atlantic and the main part of the Barents Sea, extreme waves would be less frequently witnessed and great changes in extreme wave heights could not be expected [7]. In conclusion, the eastern Arctic regions and areas close to the north Canadian coasts will be influenced most by the absence of the ice [6].

It should be noted that the discussion above relates to wave heights only. To estimate the sea level during a storm surge in the case of wind in direction toward shore has been outside our scope. A storm surge that encounters a shallow shore could climb up the coast easily, causing floods and increased erosion, while a storm surge that approaches a steep shore is more likely to break early, thus, cliff or steep shore might be sufficient obstacle to prevent a storm surge from piling-up and reaching far inland. The combined storm surge and waves will cause flooding and damages far inland. An unprecedented amount of erosion could occur due to the effect of flooding and wave action, in particular, as higher temperatures cause the increased melting of permafrost along the shores, these effects will be discussed below.
