**1. Introduction**

The Arctic physical environment is characterized by various dynamic phenomena, sudden ones, like polar lows and unexpectedly strong storms, or time developing and periodical, like gradual coastal erosion of the shoreline. In order to operate safely in this environment, one needs to be undoubtedly supported by daily weather forecasting and monitoring. However, accurate means of doing so and good prognostics are challenged by the lack of historical and scientific data as well as a limited number of stations for data collection, which make the Arctic Ocean a hazardous environment with challenging marine and weather conditions.

Recent events testify the aforementioned hazardousness. For example, on July 24, 2010, in the Varandey area in northern Russia, the oil treatment and storage terminal located kilometers inland was flooded and the airport runway closed, due to the fact that the coast was severely damaged by excessive flooding. This flooding event was the outcome of combined storm waves, surges, and tides. Other northern production sites, such as the Northstar artificial oil and gas production island in the Beaufort Sea, have also been damaged by significantly high waves. In that case during the design phase, the facilities, which are located 19 km northwest of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska and 10 km north of the Alaskan coast at a water depth of 10 m, were designed using historical data and assumptions of fetch length and wave height occurrence which did not correspond to events that happened some years after production startup.

In this chapter, we are analyzing some of these challenges and phenomena, taking into consideration the significant changes that have occurred in the Arctic area during the last decades. For instance, throughout the years, the average monthly Arctic sea ice extent has dropped dramatically from 12.5 million km2 in 1980s to about 10.8 million km2 in 2016, showing a declining trend of 4.1% per decade (see **Figure 1**) [1]. This means that at coastlines and areas that before used to be covered by snow permanently, people now observe waves up to 4 m in height. Due to the retraction of the ice cover, new paths for trading and transportation are seasonally opened, like the North Sea Route (the Northeastern Passage), which is now used as a transport path with ships for liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Sabetta LNG facilities on Yamal to the Chinese market. During the summer period and early autumn, when the passage is almost ice free, operators can travel from Europe to Asia using this path to the north of Russia with the service of icebreakers.

The wave forces that are generated due to the ice-free surface enhance the ice shrinkage and reduce the ice thickness, helping ice edges to detach more easily from the main ice core. Another observation is the increase of the temperature and seasonal record peaks that might be also a consequence of the annual shrinkage of the permanent ice extent which works as natural mirror and shield against the heat. The increase of the temperature does consequently lead to increased ice melting creating a loop of domino effects.

**27**

**Figure 2.**

*Feedback loop of the wave ice interaction.*

*Coastal Erosion Due to Decreased Ice Coverage, Associated Increased Wave Action…*

influence the phenomena by reducing or increasing some risks.

All the aforementioned changes testify to a likely future situation where ice surface will shrink further and possibly occasionally disappear. Shipping and operations in the area will face a different environment of what they are designed for today. Some new challenges might occur. As long as waves are considered, it is probable that assets will face a more hazardous environment with higher waves generated in an open ocean. Some business people might claim that conditions will be more favorable for operations in the Arctic if temperature increases, since this will alleviate winterization issues. However, no one can predict with certainty what the environmental conditions will be and how the aforementioned changes will

In relation to the definition of the risk of an activity, A, is the multi-dimensional combination of its probability P, its consequences, C, and the related uncertainties, U, of what the outcome will be (A, P, C, and U). The uncertainty of the activity is well linked to the knowledge that one has about the activity. Therefore, since in the Arctic area there is lack of knowledge due to scarce historical data or measurements of previous hazardous events for a sufficient long period, risks can be considered inherently high in the Arctic area where safety for the assets or humans may not be

Thus, there is a need to understand better the challenges that might occur in the future by assessing some potential future scenarios. One such scenario is an open Arctic Ocean where there is no ice. In this chapter, this scenario is related to the potential increase of the wave height in specific areas. One specific method for predicting maximum wave heights is used, here, covering the subject briefly and

Winds blowing over the sea generate ocean surface waves (wind-sea and swell) which are related to the distance (length of fetch) and the duration of wind. As both wind-sea and swells depend on the open water sea fetch, further reductions in

Such larger waves can have multiple consequences to the coasts around but also to the marine operations in the area. Wave activity when reaching the shallow areas along the coast leads to currents and water circulation that can cause excessive erosion and enhanced sediment transportation. Also, present navigation experience

*DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.80604*

giving food for further research and analysis.

seasonal ice cover will result in larger waves [2].

guaranteed.

**Figure 1.** *Monthly June Arctic sea ice extent for 1979–2018 shows a decline of 4.1% per decade [1].*

### *Coastal Erosion Due to Decreased Ice Coverage, Associated Increased Wave Action… DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.80604*

All the aforementioned changes testify to a likely future situation where ice surface will shrink further and possibly occasionally disappear. Shipping and operations in the area will face a different environment of what they are designed for today. Some new challenges might occur. As long as waves are considered, it is probable that assets will face a more hazardous environment with higher waves generated in an open ocean. Some business people might claim that conditions will be more favorable for operations in the Arctic if temperature increases, since this will alleviate winterization issues. However, no one can predict with certainty what the environmental conditions will be and how the aforementioned changes will influence the phenomena by reducing or increasing some risks.

In relation to the definition of the risk of an activity, A, is the multi-dimensional combination of its probability P, its consequences, C, and the related uncertainties, U, of what the outcome will be (A, P, C, and U). The uncertainty of the activity is well linked to the knowledge that one has about the activity. Therefore, since in the Arctic area there is lack of knowledge due to scarce historical data or measurements of previous hazardous events for a sufficient long period, risks can be considered inherently high in the Arctic area where safety for the assets or humans may not be guaranteed.

Thus, there is a need to understand better the challenges that might occur in the future by assessing some potential future scenarios. One such scenario is an open Arctic Ocean where there is no ice. In this chapter, this scenario is related to the potential increase of the wave height in specific areas. One specific method for predicting maximum wave heights is used, here, covering the subject briefly and giving food for further research and analysis.

Winds blowing over the sea generate ocean surface waves (wind-sea and swell) which are related to the distance (length of fetch) and the duration of wind. As both wind-sea and swells depend on the open water sea fetch, further reductions in seasonal ice cover will result in larger waves [2].

Such larger waves can have multiple consequences to the coasts around but also to the marine operations in the area. Wave activity when reaching the shallow areas along the coast leads to currents and water circulation that can cause excessive erosion and enhanced sediment transportation. Also, present navigation experience

**Figure 2.** *Feedback loop of the wave ice interaction.*

*Arctic Studies - A Proxy for Climate Change*

about 10.8 million km2

creating a loop of domino effects.

developing and periodical, like gradual coastal erosion of the shoreline. In order to operate safely in this environment, one needs to be undoubtedly supported by daily weather forecasting and monitoring. However, accurate means of doing so and good prognostics are challenged by the lack of historical and scientific data as well as a limited number of stations for data collection, which make the Arctic Ocean a

Recent events testify the aforementioned hazardousness. For example, on July 24, 2010, in the Varandey area in northern Russia, the oil treatment and storage terminal located kilometers inland was flooded and the airport runway closed, due to the fact that the coast was severely damaged by excessive flooding. This flooding event was the outcome of combined storm waves, surges, and tides. Other northern production sites, such as the Northstar artificial oil and gas production island in the Beaufort Sea, have also been damaged by significantly high waves. In that case during the design phase, the facilities, which are located 19 km northwest of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska and 10 km north of the Alaskan coast at a water depth of 10 m, were designed using historical data and assumptions of fetch length and wave height occurrence which did

hazardous environment with challenging marine and weather conditions.

not correspond to events that happened some years after production startup.

Arctic sea ice extent has dropped dramatically from 12.5 million km2

Asia using this path to the north of Russia with the service of icebreakers.

*Monthly June Arctic sea ice extent for 1979–2018 shows a decline of 4.1% per decade [1].*

In this chapter, we are analyzing some of these challenges and phenomena, taking into consideration the significant changes that have occurred in the Arctic area during the last decades. For instance, throughout the years, the average monthly

**Figure 1**) [1]. This means that at coastlines and areas that before used to be covered by snow permanently, people now observe waves up to 4 m in height. Due to the retraction of the ice cover, new paths for trading and transportation are seasonally opened, like the North Sea Route (the Northeastern Passage), which is now used as a transport path with ships for liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Sabetta LNG facilities on Yamal to the Chinese market. During the summer period and early autumn, when the passage is almost ice free, operators can travel from Europe to

The wave forces that are generated due to the ice-free surface enhance the ice shrinkage and reduce the ice thickness, helping ice edges to detach more easily from the main ice core. Another observation is the increase of the temperature and seasonal record peaks that might be also a consequence of the annual shrinkage of the permanent ice extent which works as natural mirror and shield against the heat. The increase of the temperature does consequently lead to increased ice melting

in 2016, showing a declining trend of 4.1% per decade (see

in 1980s to

**26**

**Figure 1.**

can be challenged due to higher waves generated by rapid storms and changing seafloor conditions. In the future Arctic Ocean, wave conditions like those will be changing the known environment for nature and humans.

Moreover, the existence of ice on the sea surface makes the phenomenon of wave and ice interaction complex. Ice masses suppress waves, diminishing them, but also waves alter and influence the thickness and the growth of the ice. Waves start penetrates more and more into the weakened sea-ice reaching the marginal ice zone, the part of the ice cover that interacts with the open ice-free ocean. This loop produces a positive feedback that could accelerate the loss of ice especially during summer and early fall [3] (**Figure 2**).
