**3. The next 10 years: the effect of vision 2030 of Saudi Arabia's future**

The Crown Prince is heavily invested in his Vision 2030 project that will bring both new physical facilities and social changes. While the facilities are visible, the social changes are likely to be more consequential.

A look at a few of the larger projects, is impressive: A completely new Red Sea resort encompassing both shoreline and off shore island development, a complete refurbishment of Jeddah's downtown with the addition on a civic entertainment area on a nearby offshore island, a major push on renewable energy development, a new high tech and business center in northwestern Saudi Arabia called NEOM, and perhaps the completion of the technological cities begun under previous Kings. All this development will cost more than the \$100 billion likely to be raised by the sale of 5% of ARAMCO.

The original plan called for considerable outside investment of both direct dollars and international joint venture involvement. The war in Yemen but also the royal involvement in the killing of Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey have cause international partners to pull back. The most notable was Richard Branson, the CEO of Virgin Atlantic airline, who has withdrawn from his major role promoting the new Red Sea resort. However, some of the international investors have begun to return to the fold not wanting to miss a promising opportunity [7]. The Crown Prince had hoped that Saudi Arabia would become the "Davos of the Middle East," a Saudi financial conference held in 2018, but several companies withdrew their initial support. These included to executive from: Google, KKR, Ford, J.P. Morgan Chase, BlackRock, Uber, and the Blackstone Group.

All this does not mean the entire Vision 2030 program is dead, but it indicates it may be harder to implement than originally thought. Probably Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will have to give up more social controls so that projects like the Red Sea resort, the city of NEOM, and the "Davos of the Middle East" ideas can become realities. But it is in loosening of the social control that the Crown Prince might be subsequently forced to relinquish controls in other areas of life.

The questions raised in this investigation have not been answered. They identify the tension in the country between the Crown Prince's desire to refurbish modernize and update the Saudi economy and his desire to retain the Saud's family control of the country. The longer term future of Saudi Arabia has several possibilities.
