**5. Exploring risk descriptions from 'hotspot' cities**

An overview of impacts in the cities with some of the highest risk of water insecurity are provided below.

#### **Jakarta**


#### **Karachi**

• Water riots expected as 1 Billion gallon per day requirement is only met with 600 Mgd

### **Nairobi**

**Figure 4.** One hundred and ten global cities that are categorized into lower, medium and higher water risk categories.

**Figure 3.** Urban risk timescales, magnitude, CDP cities water security database [5] (n = 312 cities; self-reported).

Data re-analyses of the CDP Cities and Water Security self-reported database are shown in **Figure 3**. This includes exploring data from 312 cities in terms of water insecurity risk type, level of severity and the temporal nature of these risks (keeping in mind a need to balance the biases that may be associated with self-reported data). This is followed by a greater emphasis

Re-analysis of September 2017 data from CDP [5].

12 Water and Sustainability


#### **Moscow**

• Risk of release of hazardous polluting substances, leading to failure of technological modes of sewerage networks and sewage treatment plants.

• So far there are over 41.1% leaks in the water system. There is constant pressure on the

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• Wastewater treatment plants available are not sufficient to treat wastewater for the whole

• Mismanagement of water resources, such as leaking taps, lead to scarcity of water

• A crippling drought that was associated with El Niño severely affected South Africa's sum-

• Dam levels were at critical low levels such that water restrictions had to be imposed and

• As Lake Mead's level declines, concerns of declining water quality due to increased salinity.

• Water restrictions; yet if Lake Mead continues to decline, a Federally mandated cut in Southern Nevada's water allocation may occur, and nearly did during 2015-2016.

This section focuses on city and regional-decision making processes that will matter. Below offers example 'cities most likely to run out of drinking water', with some related trends, the potential consequences in these changing urban environments, and multi-level (e.g. city, state, national) responses. While data integration across systems may help to inform future risk communication, increased availability of data and a need for data integration and transparency requires new analytics coupled with decision processes, enabling a higher level of maturity in response levels that move from reactive to proactive. Several predictive factors are therefore noted from both data and literature-reviewed in these cities, offering contexts where scarcity may increase to insights

• Recent third intake project at lowest part of lake to mitigate water quality concerns.

**6. Extent, consequences, and drivers of urban water crises**

on where 'abundance strategies' may prove of value (see Sarni and Sperling).

• Reduction in quantity of water available for domestic, industrial and commercial use

aquifer and the 2040 water plan has identified this as the highest level of risk.

• Over abstraction of ground water from aquifers

mer rainfall in regions including Johannesburg.

penalties on those who used excessive water.

• Deferred maintenance on water system

**Lagos**

city

availability

**Johannesburg**

**Los Angeles**

**Las Vegas**


#### **Cape Town**


#### **Mazabuka**


#### **Mexico City**

• The city has identified and mapped flooding impacts for vulnerable areas—targeting 5.6 million inhabitants.

• So far there are over 41.1% leaks in the water system. There is constant pressure on the aquifer and the 2040 water plan has identified this as the highest level of risk.

#### **Lagos**

**Moscow**

14 Water and Sustainability

**Cape Town**

**Mazabuka**

**Mexico City**

on the supply system.

water borne diseases.

million inhabitants.

due to increased temperature.

• Risk of release of hazardous polluting substances, leading to failure of technological modes

• Risk of accidents on sewerage networks, pumping stations and wastewater treatment plants in connection with wear and insufficient volume of measures for their renovation, as

• Risk of accidental pollution of water sources, existing due to anthropogenic pressures, leading in particular to deterioration of water quality, primarily on organoleptic and microbiological indicators, the content of organic substances and petroleum products. • Mass development of cottages development in water-collecting area and discharge of untreated waste water lead to gradual degradation of small rivers, deterioration of selfpurification capacities of water bodies, and algal blooms. Deterioration of water supply

• The city has generally been able to successfully manage and reduce demand growth; however, Cape Town is currently suffering from a drought lasting several years (currently in

• Stringent level 3b water restrictions have been put in place to reduce demand further. It is anticipated that in the longer term, water demand will continue to grow and place stress

• The city is currently conducting cooperative planning with the national Department of Water and Sanitation to ensure that additional water supply infrastructure is constructed to avoid a long-term water deficit in the region. Climate change is expected to change rainfall patterns, and this has been included as a scenario in the planning for future infrastructure. Climate change is expected to reduce rainfall, increase evaporation and increase demand

• Inadequate rainfall results in droughts, damaged crops, declining wildlife and deaths

• Hydroelectricity issues, for instance—no electricity in homes at certain intervals due to

• People consuming contaminated water, due to dried and stagnant water sources, leads to

• The city has identified and mapped flooding impacts for vulnerable areas—targeting 5.6

of sewerage networks and sewage treatment plants.

well as in connection with failure of external power supply.

systems also affects the quality of the water supplied to consumers.

year 3) which has severely impacted the City's water storage.

road shading and you only see power for only 2 hours.


#### **Johannesburg**


#### **Los Angeles**

• Deferred maintenance on water system

#### **Las Vegas**


### **6. Extent, consequences, and drivers of urban water crises**

This section focuses on city and regional-decision making processes that will matter. Below offers example 'cities most likely to run out of drinking water', with some related trends, the potential consequences in these changing urban environments, and multi-level (e.g. city, state, national) responses. While data integration across systems may help to inform future risk communication, increased availability of data and a need for data integration and transparency requires new analytics coupled with decision processes, enabling a higher level of maturity in response levels that move from reactive to proactive. Several predictive factors are therefore noted from both data and literature-reviewed in these cities, offering contexts where scarcity may increase to insights on where 'abundance strategies' may prove of value (see Sarni and Sperling).

### **6.1. Sao Paolo (estimated metro region population: 21 million)**

• *Indicators on extent of crisis:* During the 2014 water crisis, the city's main reservoir was at 3% capacity and the City had less than 20 days' waters supply [7]. In the period of early twentieth century up to 2015, 12-month estimates of rainfall reached levels that were at half the amount of all previous worst 12-month periods [8].

water from the Cauvery River for drinking water (anticipated to provide ~100 L of water per person per day), gaining an additional 50% more than current supply. Other responses to date have included plans for an 18 month project to divert water from another river, the Netravati, as well as mandatory construction of rainwater harvesting facilities (collecting \$300,000 in fines per month from those not complying) and recycling water using sewage

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• *Indicators on extent of crisis:* 100 cubic meters is available per person per year (note: less than 1000 cubic meters/capita annually is considered "water scarce" by UN standards). Price of water remains a quarter of the world's average; 12 consecutive years of drought, noted in

• *Crisis consequences:* Three new routes for diverting water from south to north could cost more than \$80 billion with experts having doubts as to this being a long term sustainable solution (yet rather a 'lifeline' of water in the short term) [12]; 112 million regional population across Beijing/Tianjin/Hebei faces half of country's acute scarcity, where 28,000 rivers have disappeared in past 25 years, groundwater is falling by up to 1–3 m a year, and some parts of Beijing subsiding by 11 cm a year. Yellow River water supplies millions, yet is now

• *Risk factors and Responses:* In 2017, 8.8% of water was unfit even for agricultural or industrial use with pollution causing further risk to supply [13]; estimates of more than 50 million people in Beijing by 2050 [14]; groundwater decline and widespread water pollution; diverting water from Yangtze river in south; 'sponge city' pilots using up to 70% of rainfall; water recycling; drought resistant crops; Tianjin desalination infrastructure

• *Indicators on extent of crisis:* Population growth (Egypt's overall population is expected to double by 2050) and significant environmental pollution (especially chemically treated sewage disposal and industrial waste that's killing crops) have led to the Nile river becoming the recipient of significant urban wastewater due to the lack of wastewater treatment plants in Cairo and rural agriculture and industrial runoff [15]. Below offer results from water samples at different water treatment plants in Cairo in the past decade [16]: cryptosporidium was found in 50% of samples taken from the Fowa drinking water treatment plant to 100% of samples in the El Nomros plant, and with Giardia as high as 33% in the El Hawamdia to 50% in Meet Fares. Over the past decade, the peri-urban areas, or outskirts of Cairo, have also been under significant development—this has included illegally constructed buildings linked to unauthorized use of primarily leaky water pipelines that then

2011, led to investments in desalination and piping from the Bohai sea [11].

at a tenth of 1940 flow levels and often fails to reach the sea [13].

**6.4. Cairo (estimated metro region population: 19.5 million)**

waste limited urban water supplies.

treatment plants [9, 10].

investments

**6.3. Beijing (estimated metro region population: 22 million)**


#### **6.2. Bangalore (estimated metro region population: 11 million)**


water from the Cauvery River for drinking water (anticipated to provide ~100 L of water per person per day), gaining an additional 50% more than current supply. Other responses to date have included plans for an 18 month project to divert water from another river, the Netravati, as well as mandatory construction of rainwater harvesting facilities (collecting \$300,000 in fines per month from those not complying) and recycling water using sewage treatment plants [9, 10].

### **6.3. Beijing (estimated metro region population: 22 million)**

**6.1. Sao Paolo (estimated metro region population: 21 million)**

16 Water and Sustainability

the amount of all previous worst 12-month periods [8].

• *Indicators on extent of crisis:* During the 2014 water crisis, the city's main reservoir was at 3% capacity and the City had less than 20 days' waters supply [7]. In the period of early twentieth century up to 2015, 12-month estimates of rainfall reached levels that were at half

• *Crisis consequences:* \$925 million of investment by water company, Sabesp, in three new water pumping projects to provide enough back-up water to survive a drought similar to the 2014–2015 event; many taps flowed for only a few hours every 4 days; theft and looting of emergency water trucks; 71% of city population experienced problems with the water supply during worst month, and with most acute impacts of going dry felt in the *Periferia* poorer districts on the city; while wealthier residents built water tanks and purchased water from private sources, outlying cities saw large protests with some turning violent when city tried to cut off from water network entirely; dehydration of children, women with urinary problems from not drinking enough water, and significant business risks to factories and farm output; water shortages also impacted hydropower plants in the metro region forcing

• *Risk factors and Responses:* 10-fold increase in city population from 1950 to 2005 and uncontrolled urban expansion with informal settlements lacking adequate water services*;* pollution of rivers, deforestation in Amazon River basin and water-intensive agriculture; network leakages leading to 25% of produced water not reaching water users; main responses to date have included expensive, supply-side engineering / infrastructure investment to avoid

• *Indicators on extent of crisis*: City water distribution networks only cover the central area of the city, whereas surrounding areas are not connected and instead get their water supply from tanker trunks (typically relying on quickly shrinking groundwater supply that have

• *Crisis consequences:* Sept 2, 2016 Supreme Court issued-order for Karnataka to release extra water (10,000 cubic feet of water per second, then 15,000 from Sept 5 to 15 Sep and 12,000 until Sept 20) from the Cauvery river to ease a shortage threatening crops in Tamil Nadu; this led to violent/deadly protests in Bangalore forcing closures of hundreds of companies and public transit system (city police imposed an emergency law prohibiting public gather-

• *Risk factors and Responses:* Total extraction wells from 5000 to 450,000 in the past 30 years; groundwater table drop from 10-12 meters to about 76–91 meters in just two decades with minimal groundwater recharge and rising water body pollution due to unplanned urbanization. The Bangalore Water Supply and Sewerage Board (BWSSB) is working with the Japanese International Cooperation Agency to divert 10 thousand million cubic feet of

energy rationing (with principal hydropower reservoirs at 17% capacity)

future shortages rather than reducing consumption and leakage.

dropped from depths of 150–200 ft. to 100 ft. or more in some places).

ings, with more than 15,000 officers deployed across the city).

**6.2. Bangalore (estimated metro region population: 11 million)**


#### **6.4. Cairo (estimated metro region population: 19.5 million)**

• *Indicators on extent of crisis:* Population growth (Egypt's overall population is expected to double by 2050) and significant environmental pollution (especially chemically treated sewage disposal and industrial waste that's killing crops) have led to the Nile river becoming the recipient of significant urban wastewater due to the lack of wastewater treatment plants in Cairo and rural agriculture and industrial runoff [15]. Below offer results from water samples at different water treatment plants in Cairo in the past decade [16]: cryptosporidium was found in 50% of samples taken from the Fowa drinking water treatment plant to 100% of samples in the El Nomros plant, and with Giardia as high as 33% in the El Hawamdia to 50% in Meet Fares. Over the past decade, the peri-urban areas, or outskirts of Cairo, have also been under significant development—this has included illegally constructed buildings linked to unauthorized use of primarily leaky water pipelines that then waste limited urban water supplies.

• *Crisis consequences:* Some have noted the Nile is now running out of clean water and with continued uneven water distribution, misuse of water resources, and inefficient irrigation techniques – 20 cubic meters per person of internal renewable freshwater resources has now become the norm nationwide. By 2020, Egypt will consume 20% more water than is available. This has meant an annual 7 billion cubic meters water deficit and UN predictions that the entire nation of Egypt could run out of water by the year 2025 [17]. In addition, due to groundwater uses for irrigation affecting the water table, structural integrity of several buildings and historic monuments in Cairo remain at risk as well.

shopping malls and apartment blocks as unchecked development, that would normally be retention ponds, swampland and other open spaces that would normally absorb

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• *Indicators on Extent of Crisis*: Insecure sources of water; water stress; water pollution- 56% of

• *Crisis Consequences:* Health risks due to heavy metals, soil and groundwater contamination • *Risk Factors and Responses:* Inadequate or aging infrastructure, declining water quality

• *Indicators of Extent of Crisis:* Distant from water sources; from 2006 to 2008, rainfall was lowest recorded in last 50 years; in 2014, another drought led to reservoirs dropping to as low as 29%; treatment plants are outdated; supply deficit (in million m3/year) was 473.2 in

• *Crisis Consequences*: Ongoing pollution to waterways; from drought to mega infrastructure projects of dams and canals; ecosystem impacts to nearby streams, water tables, large costs,

*Risk Factors and Responses:* Increased water stress or scarcity (as serious medium-term risk); 2.8% annual growth rate (population doubling in 25-year period); Melen dam now expected to help Istanbul meet water demand until 2071, yet with higher water prices in long-term; and continued prolongation of dry season creating pressure on water resources

The similarities among these examples are: 1) continued lack of data and metrics on water use and management; 2) lack of incentives or markets for solutions; 3) aging, centralized systems for infrastructure; 4) lack of business models for small, modular systems that may increase abundance and resilience; and 5) inadequate institutional mapping of roles to inform accountability/transparency in crisis response. These examples offer a diverse range of the sets of challenges, consequences, and emerging risks and responses. **Table 1** offers another summary of literature review approach, comparing Mexico City, London, Tokyo, and Miami, on recent crises related to resource quantity, quality, supply, demand, equity, and choices. These examples present a picture of the grand urban water challenges of the 21st century, with both differences and similarities between cities. Proactive strategies and integrated responses focused on the growing number of cities at risk as frontlines for innovation may continue to emerge. These examples also motivate questions for ongoing exploring of long-term impacts, using data to generate understanding on how best to help reduce costs, improve water security, modernize infrastructure assets, build resilience and ensure sustain-

(CDP, 2017); and low incentives to take steps to improve quality of wastewater.

rainwater.

**6.6. Moscow (Est. 12 million)**

**6.7. Istanbul (Est. 14 million)**

2005 and 682.0 in 2010 [24]

(CDP, 2017).

able revenue models.

water supply sources fail to meet safety standards [23]

and potential flooding anticipated with heavy rains.

• *Risk Factors and Responses:* Serious urban health hazards ranging from diarrhea, eye infections and rheumatism – associated with exposure to sewage – have been indicators of increasing risk since the late 1970s. This includes a high ranking for the number of deaths related to water pollution. In response, USAID alone has invested more than \$3.5 billion to improve water and sanitation services for over 25 million Egyptians (in a country just under 100 million today and expected to reach 200 million in next 50 years). More recently, in West Cairo, a \$727 million project was developed and implemented to improve wastewater collection, treatment, and disposal [18].

#### **6.5. Jakarta (estimated metro region population: 30 million)**


shopping malls and apartment blocks as unchecked development, that would normally be retention ponds, swampland and other open spaces that would normally absorb rainwater.

#### **6.6. Moscow (Est. 12 million)**

• *Crisis consequences:* Some have noted the Nile is now running out of clean water and with continued uneven water distribution, misuse of water resources, and inefficient irrigation techniques – 20 cubic meters per person of internal renewable freshwater resources has now become the norm nationwide. By 2020, Egypt will consume 20% more water than is available. This has meant an annual 7 billion cubic meters water deficit and UN predictions that the entire nation of Egypt could run out of water by the year 2025 [17]. In addition, due to groundwater uses for irrigation affecting the water table, structural integrity of several

• *Risk Factors and Responses:* Serious urban health hazards ranging from diarrhea, eye infections and rheumatism – associated with exposure to sewage – have been indicators of increasing risk since the late 1970s. This includes a high ranking for the number of deaths related to water pollution. In response, USAID alone has invested more than \$3.5 billion to improve water and sanitation services for over 25 million Egyptians (in a country just under 100 million today and expected to reach 200 million in next 50 years). More recently, in West Cairo, a \$727 million project was developed and implemented to improve waste-

• *Indicators on Extent of Crisis*: Excessive groundwater water extraction over the last three decades has led the city to be one of the fastest sinking cities in the world and people are leaving [19]. Land subsidence is at a rate of 3 cm to 20 cm per year in parts of city (including 5 to 8 cm a year in the northern half of the city). Meanwhile, Jakarta's population has increased from ~8.3 million (2000) to 10,075 million (2015), without increases in environmental service (e.g. clean water provision, waste water treatment) capacities. Flooding occurs almost every time it rains more than three hours (with widespread flooding inundating up to 40% of the city in 1996, 2002 and 2007 [20]), only 50% of households have piped water (with new connections for low income households remaining very low – 85% of households that have connections fall into tariff categories of middle class or above [21], and the city now produces more wastewater than clean tap water. Finally, river water quality status in Jakarta has reached levels of 81% indicated as highly polluted in 2004 up to 94% in 2007, while green space in Jakarta's

• *Crisis Consequences:* Only 4% of housing in Jakarta has wastewater treatment plant connections. Jakarta has become a heavily polluted city in terms of sewage and water. This includes 70% of waterways being blocked, as a central driver of the city's chronic flooding problems. Twenty percent of daily waste still ends up in local rivers and canals, causing significant illness. Flooding has also led to the displacement of more than one million people, and billions of dollars in losses have ensued. In 2007 alone, nearly 70% of the city was submerged by floodwaters – 52 fatalities and displacement of more than 450,000 [22].

• *Risk Factors and Responses:* With support of international donors, and national government, the city administration started in 2016 to dredge its 17 rivers and canals for the first time since the 1970s. Other (somewhat inadequate) responses have included building of

buildings and historic monuments in Cairo remain at risk as well.

water collection, treatment, and disposal [18].

18 Water and Sustainability

**6.5. Jakarta (estimated metro region population: 30 million)**

1985–2005 to 2000–2010 spatial plans decreased from 26.1% to 13.94%.


### **6.7. Istanbul (Est. 14 million)**


*Risk Factors and Responses:* Increased water stress or scarcity (as serious medium-term risk); 2.8% annual growth rate (population doubling in 25-year period); Melen dam now expected to help Istanbul meet water demand until 2071, yet with higher water prices in long-term; and continued prolongation of dry season creating pressure on water resources (CDP, 2017).

The similarities among these examples are: 1) continued lack of data and metrics on water use and management; 2) lack of incentives or markets for solutions; 3) aging, centralized systems for infrastructure; 4) lack of business models for small, modular systems that may increase abundance and resilience; and 5) inadequate institutional mapping of roles to inform accountability/transparency in crisis response. These examples offer a diverse range of the sets of challenges, consequences, and emerging risks and responses. **Table 1** offers another summary of literature review approach, comparing Mexico City, London, Tokyo, and Miami, on recent crises related to resource quantity, quality, supply, demand, equity, and choices. These examples present a picture of the grand urban water challenges of the 21st century, with both differences and similarities between cities. Proactive strategies and integrated responses focused on the growing number of cities at risk as frontlines for innovation may continue to emerge. These examples also motivate questions for ongoing exploring of long-term impacts, using data to generate understanding on how best to help reduce costs, improve water security, modernize infrastructure assets, build resilience and ensure sustainable revenue models.


Given uncertainties associated with interrelated challenges, it's critical to not only define the grand water security challenge(s) for cities in the twenty-first century, yet further build up a more robust evidence base for integrated solutions. For purposes of defining urban community challenges in this chapter, we start with the fact that one in four of the world's 500 largest cities are already in a situation of "water stress" (ref, 2014) and that water crises, since 2011, have consistently been ranked in the top five of global risks in terms of impact (WEF Global Risks, 2018). The economic consequences for inaction and holding on to old technology solutions are clear. The World Bank Report High and Dry: Climate Change, Water and the Economy, lays out a

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• "Water scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, could cost some regions up to 6% of their

• The combined effects of growing populations, rising incomes, and expanding cities will see demand for water rising exponentially, while supply becomes more erratic and uncertain. • Unless action is taken soon, water will become scarce in regions where it is currently abundant—such as Central Africa and East Asia— and scarcity will greatly worsen in regions where water is already in short supply—such as the Middle East and the Sahel in Africa. These regions could see their growth rates decline by as much as 6% of GDP by 2050 due to

• Water insecurity could multiply the risk of conflict. Food price spikes caused by droughts can inflame latent conflicts and drive migration. Where economic growth is impacted by rainfall, episodes of droughts and floods have generated waves of migration and spikes in

The report also maps out the benefits of addressing the water crisis, such as improved economic development, and a call for action in improving agricultural water efficiency, better planning and investments in infrastructure to ensure more secure water supplies and availability. Most recently, a report released by NASA illustrates the impact of unstainable pumping of aquifers. According to NASA, "The world's largest underground aquifers—a source of fresh water for hundreds of millions of people—are being depleted at alarming rates, according to new NASA satellite data that provides the most detailed picture yet of vital water reserves hidden under the Earth's surface. Twenty-one of the world's 37 largest aquifers—in locations from India and China to the United States and France—have passed their sustainability tipping points, meaning more water was removed than replaced during the decade-long study period, researchers announced Tuesday. Thirteen aquifers declined at rates that put them into the most troubled category. The researchers said this indicated a

Population growth is also placing significant stress on energy and food production, which is further exacerbated by water scarcity. The global population is currently increasing by approximately 70 million people each year. As a result, the total global population is projected to reach 9.6 billion by the year 2050 [25]. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) estimates that by 2050, water, energy, and food demands will increase by 55, 80, and 60%, respectively [26].

grim vision of inaction. Below are a few of the conclusions from the report:

water-related impacts on agriculture, health, and incomes.

long-term problem that's likely to worsen as reliance on aquifers grows."

GDP, spur migration, and spark conflict.

violence within countries."

**Table 1.** Comparisons of cities, megatrends, and resilience priorities.

### **7. Moving from grand challenges to critical nexus opportunities**

New paradigms are emerging with water, energy, and related technologies identified as grand challenges. Innovation can create opportunities to both better leverage data and meet a global need for safe, secure and affordable water and through higher degrees of systems integration between water, energy, and 'X' systems (X is defined as a variable that may include food, land, waste resource recovery, environmental, economic, and urban systems – depending on local context priorities). Building on the National/Global Academies of Engineering twenty-first century grand challenges of 'restore and improve urban infrastructure', 'secure cyberspace', and 'provide access to clean water', this section of the chapter evaluates the critical opportunities to increase water, energy, environmental, social, economic, and security benefits, while significantly reducing costs, societal and business risks (e.g. supply chain vulnerabilities, conflict, economic outputs exposed and vulnerabilities to multiple hazards).

Given uncertainties associated with interrelated challenges, it's critical to not only define the grand water security challenge(s) for cities in the twenty-first century, yet further build up a more robust evidence base for integrated solutions. For purposes of defining urban community challenges in this chapter, we start with the fact that one in four of the world's 500 largest cities are already in a situation of "water stress" (ref, 2014) and that water crises, since 2011, have consistently been ranked in the top five of global risks in terms of impact (WEF Global Risks, 2018).

The economic consequences for inaction and holding on to old technology solutions are clear. The World Bank Report High and Dry: Climate Change, Water and the Economy, lays out a grim vision of inaction. Below are a few of the conclusions from the report:


The report also maps out the benefits of addressing the water crisis, such as improved economic development, and a call for action in improving agricultural water efficiency, better planning and investments in infrastructure to ensure more secure water supplies and availability. Most recently, a report released by NASA illustrates the impact of unstainable pumping of aquifers. According to NASA, "The world's largest underground aquifers—a source of fresh water for hundreds of millions of people—are being depleted at alarming rates, according to new NASA satellite data that provides the most detailed picture yet of vital water reserves hidden under the Earth's surface. Twenty-one of the world's 37 largest aquifers—in locations from India and China to the United States and France—have passed their sustainability tipping points, meaning more water was removed than replaced during the decade-long study period, researchers announced Tuesday. Thirteen aquifers declined at rates that put them into the most troubled category. The researchers said this indicated a long-term problem that's likely to worsen as reliance on aquifers grows."

**7. Moving from grand challenges to critical nexus opportunities**

**Resource quality Supply/demand** 

Poor water quality adaptations: increased purchasing of bottled water; plastic contributing to flood and drainage risks

Increased population/ heavy rainfall to further burden a drainage system that is in places already at capacity

Declining water quality

Contamination by seawater threatens quality of Miami water supplies

**Table 1.** Comparisons of cities, megatrends, and resilience priorities.

**challenges**

taps

Water scarcity; uncontrolled urban expansion; 30–40% of water supply lost to leaky systems & 1000s of informal

Half of London's water mains pipe infrastructure is over 100 years old and a third is over a 150 years old

Increased water

Increased water stress and scarcity

stress

**Distributional & procedural equity**

Water resources transferred over long distances, connecting city populations to resources in distant places; prioritization processes; ongoing flood risk

14,000 properties are at high risk (0.33% annual probability) of fluvial flooding and 140,000 properties are at high risk of surface water flooding

Inadequate and aging infrastructure

Water table overwhelming septic systems

**'Painful' choices and resilience priorities**

Investments in expensive water storage/supply-side water-management strategies reliance; new deep wells / water transfers from state of Veracruz; reuse strategies only recently emerging

London flooding in 2000, 01, 03, 06, 07, 14 and 16. Infrastructure upgrading & reducing vulnerabilities to tidal, river, surface water, groundwater and sewer flooding

Risks of flooding; investments in infrastructure and resource efficiency

Flooding risk and toxic chemicals on Superfund and other industrial sites into aquifer; 'desalination may one day be Miami's only option.'

gains

**City Resource** 

20 Water and Sustainability

London London has

lost

Tokyo 80% from

Miami Built on

a high level of leakage with around a quarter of London's water

Tonegawa & Arakawa River; 20% Tama River

Biscayne aquifer

Mexico City

**quantity**

Declining water resources; growing population; groundwater dependence limiting aquifer recharge

flict, economic outputs exposed and vulnerabilities to multiple hazards).

New paradigms are emerging with water, energy, and related technologies identified as grand challenges. Innovation can create opportunities to both better leverage data and meet a global need for safe, secure and affordable water and through higher degrees of systems integration between water, energy, and 'X' systems (X is defined as a variable that may include food, land, waste resource recovery, environmental, economic, and urban systems – depending on local context priorities). Building on the National/Global Academies of Engineering twenty-first century grand challenges of 'restore and improve urban infrastructure', 'secure cyberspace', and 'provide access to clean water', this section of the chapter evaluates the critical opportunities to increase water, energy, environmental, social, economic, and security benefits, while significantly reducing costs, societal and business risks (e.g. supply chain vulnerabilities, con-

Population growth is also placing significant stress on energy and food production, which is further exacerbated by water scarcity. The global population is currently increasing by approximately 70 million people each year. As a result, the total global population is projected to reach 9.6 billion by the year 2050 [25]. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) estimates that by 2050, water, energy, and food demands will increase by 55, 80, and 60%, respectively [26].

This growth will increase the pressure on limited water, energy, and food resources. Energy consumption is estimated to increase by 1.6% each year, amounting to an increase of about 36% by the year 2030. Additionally, pressure on agricultural resources will increase through societal habits such as consumption of more livestock and vegetable oils. The number of calories that a person ingests each day is expected to increase from 2373 kcal/person/day in 1969/1971 to 3070 kcal/person/day in 2050. Urbanization will yield more industrialization and water usage, and water demand will increase globally from 4,500 billion cubic meters to 6,900 billion cubic meters by the year 2030. This estimation assumes that the efficiency in water technologies does not improve, and the projected demand is about 40% over our currently accessible and reliable supply [27]. These challenges demonstrate the need for data, nexus solutions, and the combining of emerging solution pathways for technology and services, regional planning, policy and governance, and new behaviors and decisions if urbanization is to be steered toward a sustainable trajectory.

[4] https://www.cdp.net/en/research/global-reports/global-water-report-2017

another-dry-spell/ [Accessed: July 2018]

zon-deforestation [Accessed: July 2018]

article/show/single/en/4396-How-to-quench-a-thirst

2018]

July 2018]

Research. 2012;**8**(4):1944-1951

Research. 2004;**38**(2004):3931-3939

[5] CDP. 2017. Available from: https://data.cdp.net/Cities/2017-Cities-Water-Risks [Accessed:

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23

[6] BBC. The 11 cities most likely to run out of drinking water – Like Cape Town. 2018. Available from: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-42982959 [Accessed: July 2018] [7] Ritter K. São Paulo Heading To Another Dry Spell. Circle of Blue. 2018. Available from: https://www.circleofblue.org/2018/water-climate/drought/sao-paulo-heading-to-

[8] Watts, J. 2017. The Amazon Effect: How Deforestation is Starving São Paulo of Water. Available from: https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/nov/28/sao-paulo-water-ama-

[9] BBC. Is India's Bangalore Doomed to be the Next Cape Town? 2018. Available from:

[10] eNCA. Bangalore Faces Man-Made Water Crisis. 2018. Available from: https://www. enca.com/world/bangalore-faces-man-made-water-crisis [Accessed: July 2018]

[11] Qiujian S, Jei F. How to Quench a Thirst? Beijing Is Desperately Short of Water – And Uncertain how to Fix the Problem, Torn between Desalination and Pumping Resources from the South. China Dialogue. 2011. Available from: https://www.chinadialogue.net/

[12] Westcott B, Wang S. Can China Fix its Mammoth Water Crisis before it's Too Late? CNN; 2017 Available from: https://www.cnn.com/2017/03/21/asia/china-water-crisis/index.html

[13] Parton C. China's acute water shortage imperils economic future. Financial Times. Available from: www.ft.com/content/3ee05452-1801-11e8-9376-4a6390addb44 [Accessed:

[14] Thompson E. Modeling Beijing's water crisis. Eos. 2017;**98**. DOI: 10.1029/2017EO085211 [15] Agrama A. Assessment of surface water quality in Egypt. Journal of Applied Sciences

[16] Ali MA, Al-Herrawy AZ, El-Hawaary S. Detection of enteric viruses, Giardia and Cryptosporidium in two different types of drinking water treatment facilities. Water

[17] Dakkak A. Egypt's Water Crisis–Recipe for Disaster. EcoMena; 2017. Available from:

[18] USAID. Egypt: Water and Sanitation. 2018. Available from: https://www.usaid.gov/

[19] Kusumawijaya M. Jakarta at 30 million: My city is choking and sinking—It needs a new plan B. 2016. Available from: https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/nov/21/

https://www.ecomena.org/egypt-water/ [Accessed: July 2018]

egypt/water-and-sanitation [Accessed: July 2018]

jakarta-indonesia-30-million-sinking-future

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-43252435 [Accessed: July 2018]

In conclusion, a new set of water and energy ethics are needed to maximize human and ecosystem health and prosperity. Bringing systems together via urban nexus strategies—that amplify synergies, reduce tradeoffs, and can transition resources from scarcity to abundance—will be foundational to a more resilient human, natural, to cyber-physical system that supports diverse activities today and for future generations. As noted, multiple risks, vulnerabilities, and early signs of stress abound. Therefore, the abilities and capacities to harmonize human to ecological needs will require new, integrated ways of using and managing water, energy and other systems and services. Elegant designs will emerge soon, from crises or proactive actions in urban contexts.

### **Author details**

Josh Sperling1 \* and Will Sarni2


### **References**


[4] https://www.cdp.net/en/research/global-reports/global-water-report-2017

This growth will increase the pressure on limited water, energy, and food resources. Energy consumption is estimated to increase by 1.6% each year, amounting to an increase of about 36% by the year 2030. Additionally, pressure on agricultural resources will increase through societal habits such as consumption of more livestock and vegetable oils. The number of calories that a person ingests each day is expected to increase from 2373 kcal/person/day in 1969/1971 to 3070 kcal/person/day in 2050. Urbanization will yield more industrialization and water usage, and water demand will increase globally from 4,500 billion cubic meters to 6,900 billion cubic meters by the year 2030. This estimation assumes that the efficiency in water technologies does not improve, and the projected demand is about 40% over our currently accessible and reliable supply [27]. These challenges demonstrate the need for data, nexus solutions, and the combining of emerging solution pathways for technology and services, regional planning, policy and governance, and new behaviors and decisions if urbanization is

In conclusion, a new set of water and energy ethics are needed to maximize human and ecosystem health and prosperity. Bringing systems together via urban nexus strategies—that amplify synergies, reduce tradeoffs, and can transition resources from scarcity to abundance—will be foundational to a more resilient human, natural, to cyber-physical system that supports diverse activities today and for future generations. As noted, multiple risks, vulnerabilities, and early signs of stress abound. Therefore, the abilities and capacities to harmonize human to ecological needs will require new, integrated ways of using and managing water, energy and other systems and services. Elegant designs will emerge soon, from crises

[1] Venkatesh S, Sengupta S, editors. 36 Percent of Cities to Face Water Crisis by 2050. Center for Science and Environment; 2018. Available from: www.downtoearth.org.in/news/36-

[2] Distel O. Water—A National Priority. Israel: NewTech; 2017. Available from: https://

per-cent-cities-to-face-water-crisis-by-2050-59985 [Accessed: July 2018]

www.youtube.com/watch?v=1skF7jJmbXw [Accessed: July 2018]

to be steered toward a sustainable trajectory.

or proactive actions in urban contexts.

\* and Will Sarni2

\*Address all correspondence to: joshua.sperling@nrel.gov

[3] UN. World Urbanization Prospects; 2009 Revision

2 Water Foundry, Denver, Colorado, United States

1 National Renewable Energy Lab, Denver, Colorado, United States

**Author details**

22 Water and Sustainability

Josh Sperling1

**References**


[20] Apip, Sagala S, Pingping L. Overview of Jakarta water-related environmental challenges. In: Water and Urban Initiative Working Paper Series. United Nations University; 2015. Available from: unu.edu/research/water-and-urban-initiative.html and http://collections.unu.edu/eserv/UNU:2872/WUI\_WP4.pdf

**Chapter 3**

**Provisional chapter**

**A Call to Cities: Run Out of Water or Create Resilience**

**A Call to Cities: Run Out of Water or Create Resilience** 

New management choices, with new approaches to urbanization and integrated waterenergy-food management, are emerging as critical to combat water stress. Urban strategies and tactics are explored in this chapter with a focus on scaling effective solutions and approaches. This includes a focus on small, modular, and integrated water-energy-food hubs; off-grid and localized "circular economy" services that are affordable, accessible, and reliable; blended finance for new technologies, infrastructure and business models, strategic plans, and policies; and urban, behavioral, and decision sciences-informed decisions and new public-private-research-driven partnerships and processes. There are two key messages: first, business as usual could lead to "running out" of water where it's needed most—in cities and for agricultural and industrial production. Second, "innovators" and "early adopters" of market-based and data-driven efforts can help scale solutions led by people and communities investing in new ways to integrate urban water, energy, and food systems. The chapter concludes with discussion on a new, proactive "maturity" model, enabling integrated urban infrastructure systems, governance, and cross-sector innovation. This includes market-based and data-driven responses that first focus on improving quality of life, sustainability, and resilience of communities, bringing

**Keywords:** water, energy, infrastructure, market solutions, nexus governance, cities

For the first time in decades, water, energy, food, and other systems are experiencing significant innovations. These innovations—with breakthroughs in distributed, modular, and

> © 2016 The Author(s). Licensee InTech. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

© 2019 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,

distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.82853

**and Abundance?**

**Abstract**

**1. Introduction**

**and Abundance?**

Will Sarni and Josh Sperling

Will Sarni and Josh Sperling

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.82853

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

valued services via water-energy-food nexus decisions.


#### **A Call to Cities: Run Out of Water or Create Resilience and Abundance? A Call to Cities: Run Out of Water or Create Resilience and Abundance?**

DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.82853

Will Sarni and Josh Sperling Will Sarni and Josh Sperling

[20] Apip, Sagala S, Pingping L. Overview of Jakarta water-related environmental challenges. In: Water and Urban Initiative Working Paper Series. United Nations University; 2015. Available from: unu.edu/research/water-and-urban-initiative.html and http://col-

[21] UNDP. Jakarta Indonesia: Case Study (Water). Special Unit for South-South Cooperation; 2012. https://www.esc-pau.fr/ppp/documents/featured\_projects/indonesia.pdf

[22] Cochrane J. What's clogging Jakarta's waterways? You name it. New York Times: Jakarta Journal. 2016. Available from: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/04/world/asia/jakarta-

[23] Ritter K. Pollutants and Heavy Metals Taint Moscow's Water Supply. 2018. Available from: https://www.circleofblue.org/2018/europe/pollutants-and-heavy-metals-taint-moscows-

[24] Bekiroğlu S, Eker O. The importance of forests in a sustainable supply of drinking water: Istanbul example. African Journal of Agricultural Research. 2011;**6**(7):1794-1801. Available from: www.eip-water.eu/sites/default/files/Istanbul%202016%20EDS.pdf [Accessed: July

[25] Sarni W. Deflecting the Scarcity Trajectory: Innovation at the Water, Energy, and Food

[26] International Union for Conservation of Nature. The water-food-energy nexus: Discussing

[27] Sarni W. Beyond the Energy – Water – Food Nexus: New Strategies for 21st Century

lections.unu.edu/eserv/UNU:2872/WUI\_WP4.pdf

indonesia-canals.html

2018]

24 Water and Sustainability

water-supply/ [Accessed: July 2018]

Nexus. Deloitte University Press; 2015

solutions in Nairobi. 2013

Growth. Dō Sustainability; 2015

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.82853

#### **Abstract**

New management choices, with new approaches to urbanization and integrated waterenergy-food management, are emerging as critical to combat water stress. Urban strategies and tactics are explored in this chapter with a focus on scaling effective solutions and approaches. This includes a focus on small, modular, and integrated water-energy-food hubs; off-grid and localized "circular economy" services that are affordable, accessible, and reliable; blended finance for new technologies, infrastructure and business models, strategic plans, and policies; and urban, behavioral, and decision sciences-informed decisions and new public-private-research-driven partnerships and processes. There are two key messages: first, business as usual could lead to "running out" of water where it's needed most—in cities and for agricultural and industrial production. Second, "innovators" and "early adopters" of market-based and data-driven efforts can help scale solutions led by people and communities investing in new ways to integrate urban water, energy, and food systems. The chapter concludes with discussion on a new, proactive "maturity" model, enabling integrated urban infrastructure systems, governance, and cross-sector innovation. This includes market-based and data-driven responses that first focus on improving quality of life, sustainability, and resilience of communities, bringing valued services via water-energy-food nexus decisions.

**Keywords:** water, energy, infrastructure, market solutions, nexus governance, cities

### **1. Introduction**

For the first time in decades, water, energy, food, and other systems are experiencing significant innovations. These innovations—with breakthroughs in distributed, modular, and

© 2016 The Author(s). Licensee InTech. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2019 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

digitally connected technology and governance strategies for "energy and water as a service" options—are all recognized as having potential to transform dynamics that may lead toward dramatically different futures. One future is more water and energy use, aging infrastructure with deferred maintenance, and unhealthy communities. The other future is significant public and private benefits of more water choices, greater affordability and accessibility, and healthier, more livable communities, with less energy use and fewer costs. A new ethic around water is needed to achieve the latter. As this resource becomes "precious," new levels of maturity for co-designing urban nexus experimentation for resilience and abundance may emerge. Furthermore, market-based approaches and structural shifts in governance using emerging data, by bringing new transparency, will inform new ethical behaviors and moral decisions for crises and upscaling of innovations. Cities, utilities, and service providers will all be on frontlines of integrated solutions for the complex water dilemmas ahead. However, predicting and paying attention to the "late adopters and laggards" may be equally key.

While water-related crises are unfolding in cities all over the world, with less than adequate response strategies [2, 3], many will agree that cities will likely not "run out" of water; instead, these crises will lead to difficult and painful choices on allocation. In the long-term, what water may be left could primarily go to the privileged. This is why the questions noted in **Box 1**

• How best to integrate resilient infrastructure investments and decision support system tools that are crosssector, multilevel, and enabling of cost-effective/sustainable PPPs that offer market-based and data-driven

A Call to Cities: Run Out of Water or Create Resilience and Abundance?

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.82853

27

Cape Town offers one illustrative example: "About a quarter of Cape Town's population lives in the informal settlements, where they get water from communal taps instead of individual taps at home…." "One reality is that those 1 million people out of a population of 4 (million) only use 4.5 per cent of the water."—http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/cape-town-water-day-zero-1.4518226.

How did Cape Town get to the point where it had to plan for "Day Zero," when extreme restrictions on access to water will be enforced? Some might ask, are there not ample technological solutions to address the shortages? How does a metropolitan area of nearly 4 million people manage to become "the first major city in the modern era to face the threat of running out of drinking water"? What we do know is that Cape Town is not alone, and the challenges extend beyond technology to multiple institutional challenges and the way water is valued today. With a recent report exposing 11 other cities at risk, many anticipate significant underestimates as to the number of cities in peril (https://www.greenbiz.com/article/

First, let us explore the narratives for Cape Town. What went wrong? Where should blame be placed, and which institutions and new policies led to a city more equipped for creating innovative responses? In addition, how are such problems prevented from arising again as access to fresh water becomes one of dominant public policy issues of the twenty-first cen-

**2. Data and insights informing a city maturity framework**

**Box 1.** Key questions on long-term impacts and urban nexus transformations.

• What input data, models, and information resources can be drawn upon?

avoiding-next-cape-town-water-strategy-shared-responsibility).

tury? Barriers identified to date have included:

• Lack of dynamic and relevant pricing policies

• An abundance of conservativeness and reactive approaches

• Lack of sustainable business models

• Lack of clear legal frameworks

• Lack of awareness

may become increasingly critical.

strategies?

Business as usual has not led to sustainable, healthy, nor resilient future pathways for urban and rural communities. However, necessity has been noted as a unique catalyst for innovation and may prove a key motivator for new approaches. In particular, cities are rapidly growing demand centers for maturity in sustainable and integrated resource management. Unique pressures and risks to economic growth [1], development, and social and ecosystem wellbeing are motivating many global cities currently struggling to supply equitable access to services to invest more readily in safe, secure, and affordable water systems. Lessons across urban systems, including those with reliable, affordable, secure water and energy, offer a key opportunity to improve management of impacts from pollution and extreme weather events.

Today, when supply exceeds demand, the absence of public policy or poorly conceived strategies for water can often go unnoticed with few, if any, consequences. This is no longer an option in a world where increased demand is creating scarcity and difficult allocation choices. In many parts of the world, demand currently exceeds supply due to rapid increases in population and associated needs for energy, food, and products. As a result, a key need is to accelerate urban waterenergy nexus technology, partnerships, financing, business models, and public policies to ensure adequate water and energy infrastructure systems and governance approaches to upgrade urban services enabling economic development, thriving environments, and social well-being.

#### **Data**


#### **Assessment methods**

• What are key priorities, modernization definitions, and related nexus metrics for reporting (e.g., water productivity for energy and agriculture systems or energy productivity for water and wastewater treatment to food storage and distribution)?

• What input data, models, and information resources can be drawn upon?

digitally connected technology and governance strategies for "energy and water as a service" options—are all recognized as having potential to transform dynamics that may lead toward dramatically different futures. One future is more water and energy use, aging infrastructure with deferred maintenance, and unhealthy communities. The other future is significant public and private benefits of more water choices, greater affordability and accessibility, and healthier, more livable communities, with less energy use and fewer costs. A new ethic around water is needed to achieve the latter. As this resource becomes "precious," new levels of maturity for co-designing urban nexus experimentation for resilience and abundance may emerge. Furthermore, market-based approaches and structural shifts in governance using emerging data, by bringing new transparency, will inform new ethical behaviors and moral decisions for crises and upscaling of innovations. Cities, utilities, and service providers will all be on frontlines of integrated solutions for the complex water dilemmas ahead. However, predicting and paying attention to the "late adopters and laggards" may be equally key.

Business as usual has not led to sustainable, healthy, nor resilient future pathways for urban and rural communities. However, necessity has been noted as a unique catalyst for innovation and may prove a key motivator for new approaches. In particular, cities are rapidly growing demand centers for maturity in sustainable and integrated resource management. Unique pressures and risks to economic growth [1], development, and social and ecosystem wellbeing are motivating many global cities currently struggling to supply equitable access to services to invest more readily in safe, secure, and affordable water systems. Lessons across urban systems, including those with reliable, affordable, secure water and energy, offer a key opportunity to improve management of impacts from pollution and extreme weather events. Today, when supply exceeds demand, the absence of public policy or poorly conceived strategies for water can often go unnoticed with few, if any, consequences. This is no longer an option in a world where increased demand is creating scarcity and difficult allocation choices. In many parts of the world, demand currently exceeds supply due to rapid increases in population and associated needs for energy, food, and products. As a result, a key need is to accelerate urban waterenergy nexus technology, partnerships, financing, business models, and public policies to ensure adequate water and energy infrastructure systems and governance approaches to upgrade urban

services enabling economic development, thriving environments, and social well-being.

enhanced data and models of increasing equity to resilience?

ing financial or environmental risks?

**Assessment methods**

storage and distribution)?

ing/converging energy-water-food systems/services environments?

• How can research-practitioner communities advance data-driven decisions—what strategies can best generate

• What nexus strategies will encourage innovation and reinventing of global urban water systems across emerg-

• What will be the future of revenue and infrastructure (re)development, and in what direction do we need to move for harnessing technology and new services for positive economic/business model outcomes while reduc-

• What are key priorities, modernization definitions, and related nexus metrics for reporting (e.g., water productivity for energy and agriculture systems or energy productivity for water and wastewater treatment to food

**Data**

26 Water and Sustainability

• How best to integrate resilient infrastructure investments and decision support system tools that are crosssector, multilevel, and enabling of cost-effective/sustainable PPPs that offer market-based and data-driven strategies?

**Box 1.** Key questions on long-term impacts and urban nexus transformations.

While water-related crises are unfolding in cities all over the world, with less than adequate response strategies [2, 3], many will agree that cities will likely not "run out" of water; instead, these crises will lead to difficult and painful choices on allocation. In the long-term, what water may be left could primarily go to the privileged. This is why the questions noted in **Box 1** may become increasingly critical.

Cape Town offers one illustrative example: "About a quarter of Cape Town's population lives in the informal settlements, where they get water from communal taps instead of individual taps at home…." "One reality is that those 1 million people out of a population of 4 (million) only use 4.5 per cent of the water."—http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/cape-town-water-day-zero-1.4518226.

### **2. Data and insights informing a city maturity framework**

How did Cape Town get to the point where it had to plan for "Day Zero," when extreme restrictions on access to water will be enforced? Some might ask, are there not ample technological solutions to address the shortages? How does a metropolitan area of nearly 4 million people manage to become "the first major city in the modern era to face the threat of running out of drinking water"? What we do know is that Cape Town is not alone, and the challenges extend beyond technology to multiple institutional challenges and the way water is valued today. With a recent report exposing 11 other cities at risk, many anticipate significant underestimates as to the number of cities in peril (https://www.greenbiz.com/article/ avoiding-next-cape-town-water-strategy-shared-responsibility).

First, let us explore the narratives for Cape Town. What went wrong? Where should blame be placed, and which institutions and new policies led to a city more equipped for creating innovative responses? In addition, how are such problems prevented from arising again as access to fresh water becomes one of dominant public policy issues of the twenty-first century? Barriers identified to date have included:


While additional, local, context-specific factors could continue to drive future water crises in Cape Town and other cities, these non-technological issues offer a much broader set of risks faced across many cities. Whereas drought and water supply shortage help to demonstrate the central role water plays in our lives, this role seems to remain underappreciated and, as a result, undervalued.

Also, invaluable experience was gained in working with XPRIZE (www.xprize.org), Imagine H2O (www.imagineh20.org), and 101,010 (www.101010.net) along with multinationals and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) on water risks to food and energy production.

A Call to Cities: Run Out of Water or Create Resilience and Abundance?

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.82853

29

The bridging between engineering, entrepreneurship, data science, and public policy, among other fields, has the potential to help chart a better path forward. In this chapter, we refer to a new field of urban nexus science and innovation, one that helps move toward recognizing that 9 billion people deserve access to energy, food, safe water, sanitation and hygiene as part of a fundamental quality life, with a critical focus toward helping inform the integrated design and scaling of innovative solutions, while not just continuing to rely upon current

Below offers a framework toward nexus-based solutions that enable increased abundance. Markets setting ambitious goals and using new performance metrics for risk mitigation are enabling new city competitiveness opportunities. Market-based approaches and structural shifts in governance using nexus data are also informing behaviors and decisions that may

Cities, utilities, and service providers are increasingly faced with complex and challenging water-related dilemmas. **Figure 1** offers examples of how different types of urban water actors and institutions could begin to respond in the context of their own water systems and services, to think about linkages and opportunities by also tackling related food and energy

This system integration framework and future mapping of related data can offer key inputs

• What's the role of integrated or "nexus" solutions that include revolutionary data integra-

• How will responses to different hazards—e.g., extreme heat, drought—enable new resilient infrastructures and institutions that bridge public-private-entrepreneurial

• What if tomorrow's systems and services had "urban nexus solutions" (e.g., integrated resource efficiency, circular economy, renewable energy desalination, water reuse for food and energy production, integrated infrastructure and institutional (re)development, and modernization to address aging, centralized, legacy systems that are functioning

• What are the best urban water, energy, and food pathways that efficiently advance water security, with radical transparency, offering "leapfrog" improvements to quality of life for all, complemented by decoupling of economic prosperity from environmental impacts?

for water security to cross-sector impacts, helping address questions such as:

'siloed' approaches, which have yielded incremental progress.

offer opportunities to upscale strategic innovations.

systems and services.

tion and transparency?

innovation?

poorly)?

**3.1. An urban nexus response maturity model: from incremental transitions to breakthrough (or leapfrog) transformations enabled by market insights**

On the surface, the underlying story is about a failure in how the public sector manages water. All too often, public water policy is based upon poor data and information, inadequate public engagement, and a belief that the past is a good guide to the future. In other words, water is too often treated as a taken-for-granted asset rather than a strategic resource for economic development, social well-being, ecosystem health, and competitive advantage. Where water is viewed strategically, e.g., Israel and Singapore, water scarcity and stress do not limit economic development and business growth yet enhance it as these countries often turn their water technology innovation investments into an export initiative (e.g., WATEC, Singapore World Water Week).

In response, revolutions and leapfrogs in approaches may be needed to ensure both bottomup to top-down approaches are accelerated to hold cities, states, utilities, businesses, communities, and national leaders accountable for this shared resource, both to each other and to future generations counting on getting this right for coupled human-environmental-economic security and regional stability [4]. Additional illustration of city examples representing inaction, reaction, and painful choices will be needed so we can learn from past failures and enable new advances and water culture shifts. Likewise, cities moving to resilience and abundance, through a new set of values, ethics, and norms—coupling technology-planninggovernance-behavior-finance systems need to be further explored. This is elaborated on in the following sections.

### **3. Integrated approaches in moving to resilience and abundance**

While there is considerable discussion of the energy-water-food nexus and associated impacts, there is less of a focus on innovative solutions. Resource stress and scarcity foster innovation in technologies, financing, business models, and partnerships. We are also seeing innovation in public policy to address nexus stress and scarcity. Public policy innovation is catching up to advances in technology, financing/funding, business models, and partnerships. Collectively, innovation will move the world from scarcity to abundance if managed effectively by the public sector, companies, nongovernmental organizations, and civil society. This section of the chapter explores initial innovative approaches to addressing water security within a context of energy, water, food, land, climate, and other systems and services that help reframe decisions as integrated solutions to *create abundance.* (https://www.routledge.com/Water-Stewardship-and-Business-Value-Creating-Abundance-from-Scarcity/Sarni-Grant-Orr/p/book/9781138642553 and https://www. routledge.com/Creating-21st-Century-Abundance-through-Public-Policy-Innovation-Moving/ Sarni-Koch/p/book/9781783537518).

Also, invaluable experience was gained in working with XPRIZE (www.xprize.org), Imagine H2O (www.imagineh20.org), and 101,010 (www.101010.net) along with multinationals and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) on water risks to food and energy production.

While additional, local, context-specific factors could continue to drive future water crises in Cape Town and other cities, these non-technological issues offer a much broader set of risks faced across many cities. Whereas drought and water supply shortage help to demonstrate the central role water plays in our lives, this role seems to remain underappreciated and, as a

On the surface, the underlying story is about a failure in how the public sector manages water. All too often, public water policy is based upon poor data and information, inadequate public engagement, and a belief that the past is a good guide to the future. In other words, water is too often treated as a taken-for-granted asset rather than a strategic resource for economic development, social well-being, ecosystem health, and competitive advantage. Where water is viewed strategically, e.g., Israel and Singapore, water scarcity and stress do not limit economic development and business growth yet enhance it as these countries often turn their water technology innovation investments into an export initiative (e.g., WATEC, Singapore

In response, revolutions and leapfrogs in approaches may be needed to ensure both bottomup to top-down approaches are accelerated to hold cities, states, utilities, businesses, communities, and national leaders accountable for this shared resource, both to each other and to future generations counting on getting this right for coupled human-environmental-economic security and regional stability [4]. Additional illustration of city examples representing inaction, reaction, and painful choices will be needed so we can learn from past failures and enable new advances and water culture shifts. Likewise, cities moving to resilience and abundance, through a new set of values, ethics, and norms—coupling technology-planninggovernance-behavior-finance systems need to be further explored. This is elaborated on in the

**3. Integrated approaches in moving to resilience and abundance**

While there is considerable discussion of the energy-water-food nexus and associated impacts, there is less of a focus on innovative solutions. Resource stress and scarcity foster innovation in technologies, financing, business models, and partnerships. We are also seeing innovation in public policy to address nexus stress and scarcity. Public policy innovation is catching up to advances in technology, financing/funding, business models, and partnerships. Collectively, innovation will move the world from scarcity to abundance if managed effectively by the public sector, companies, nongovernmental organizations, and civil society. This section of the chapter explores initial innovative approaches to addressing water security within a context of energy, water, food, land, climate, and other systems and services that help reframe decisions as integrated solutions to *create abundance.* (https://www.routledge.com/Water-Stewardship-and-Business-Value-Creating-Abundance-from-Scarcity/Sarni-Grant-Orr/p/book/9781138642553 and https://www. routledge.com/Creating-21st-Century-Abundance-through-Public-Policy-Innovation-Moving/

result, undervalued.

28 Water and Sustainability

World Water Week).

following sections.

Sarni-Koch/p/book/9781783537518).

The bridging between engineering, entrepreneurship, data science, and public policy, among other fields, has the potential to help chart a better path forward. In this chapter, we refer to a new field of urban nexus science and innovation, one that helps move toward recognizing that 9 billion people deserve access to energy, food, safe water, sanitation and hygiene as part of a fundamental quality life, with a critical focus toward helping inform the integrated design and scaling of innovative solutions, while not just continuing to rely upon current 'siloed' approaches, which have yielded incremental progress.

### **3.1. An urban nexus response maturity model: from incremental transitions to breakthrough (or leapfrog) transformations enabled by market insights**

Below offers a framework toward nexus-based solutions that enable increased abundance. Markets setting ambitious goals and using new performance metrics for risk mitigation are enabling new city competitiveness opportunities. Market-based approaches and structural shifts in governance using nexus data are also informing behaviors and decisions that may offer opportunities to upscale strategic innovations.

Cities, utilities, and service providers are increasingly faced with complex and challenging water-related dilemmas. **Figure 1** offers examples of how different types of urban water actors and institutions could begin to respond in the context of their own water systems and services, to think about linkages and opportunities by also tackling related food and energy systems and services.

This system integration framework and future mapping of related data can offer key inputs for water security to cross-sector impacts, helping address questions such as:


uses through new insights. By bypassing traditional progressions, e.g., from no phones to cell phones—bypassing landlines altogether - the overallocation of resources or increasing competition for scarce freshwater sources could be bypassed through integrated approaches to water, energy, and agricultural productivity. For the first time in history, transitions and transformations (perhaps even "leapfrogging" opportunities) exist for energy-efficient water services and water and energy-efficient agricultural productivity across rural, suburban, and urban environments of the USA. Such innovation can be further catalyzed within a context of prizes and critical water issues for global geographies, with a focus on market-based solutions that enable national competition through improved energy and water services for smart,

A Call to Cities: Run Out of Water or Create Resilience and Abundance?

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31

While aging and deficient infrastructure systems for water, wastewater, transportation, and energy have become the norm in the developed economies, humanity is experiencing new frontiers in digital technologies, globalization, and water-energy connectivity. The trends of urbanization [6], in particular, have many countries and their communities in emerging markets asking how and why water technology and infrastructure modernization could help to increase competitiveness in attracting talent and businesses, enabling new "leapfrogs," and decoupling economic prosperity from environmental damage. Setting triple bottom-line goals—social, economic, and environmental—while harnessing new technologies, trainingentrepreneurship-innovation roadmaps, and multi-sector approaches that meet rising demands for services and while not being hampered by legacy, aging, or deficient systems—

To keep pace with growth, it is estimated that by 2030—just 12 years from now—the world may have to produce 40% more clean water, 35% more food, and 50% more energy (UN, World Water Development Report, 2014). Moreover, these basic resources are mutually interdependent—to produce more of any one of the resources requires more of either one or both of the other resources. Increasingly, these resources will have to be made more accessible to locations where the majority of populations will reside in years ahead or to areas

A fundamental step to address these challenges is to improve the efficiency of water and energy use. Intrinsically linked, wasteful operating practices in both energy and water systems increase the scarcity and cost of these resources. Both energy and water systems require focused efforts to optimize resource use. The cost and energy savings associated with improving water/wastewater system efficiency through variable frequency drives, fixing pipeline leaks and breaks, and tightening building envelopes to reduce energy loss are well understood. The key challenge to the adoption of these efficiency measures is funding. Funding gaps by power and water/ wastewater utilities create significant obstacles to realizing these simple system improvements. The following sections offer new city-related concepts and exhibits into the people and communities investing in transformations in urban systems related to water, energy, food-related infrastructure, governance, and new behaviors. These exhibits also help respond to the identified 20 top challenges facing the urban water sector (as identified in an AWWA report: top 20 challenges facing water sector (2018 survey results) in https://www.awwa.org/Portals/0/files/ resources/water%20utility%20management/sotwi/2018\_SOTWI\_Report\_Final\_v3.pdf.

may offer cities and nations a competitive advantage within a global economy.

healthy, and resilient communities.

increasingly exposed to risk and vulnerability.

**Figure 1.** Illustration of initial pairwise relations in the FEW nexus framework for a proposed extension of an urban nexus maturity model, to inform and help develop nexus indicators at the urban-regional scale, considering (a) inputs to food, energy, and water systems as well as (b) impacts on each of these systems from the other two. Source: Ahamed et al. [5].

### **4. New urban nexus concepts for resilience and abundance**

Water and energy are national and global priorities for security, economic prosperity, and human well-being. The term "coupling" has been applied to communities and nations that have effectively enabled new synergies between water and energy industries, technologies, infrastructure, or policy trajectories that maximize economic prosperity (or productivity) while enhancing resource or service sustainability (or resilience), respectively. Similarly, "decoupling" often refers to the positive outcome of increasing economic prosperity while reducing environmental impacts and unsustainable resource use. The term "leapfrogging" has also been applied to communities and nations that have adopted new forms of advanced infrastructure, technology, and cooperation, so as to reduce risk among competing uses through new insights. By bypassing traditional progressions, e.g., from no phones to cell phones—bypassing landlines altogether - the overallocation of resources or increasing competition for scarce freshwater sources could be bypassed through integrated approaches to water, energy, and agricultural productivity. For the first time in history, transitions and transformations (perhaps even "leapfrogging" opportunities) exist for energy-efficient water services and water and energy-efficient agricultural productivity across rural, suburban, and urban environments of the USA. Such innovation can be further catalyzed within a context of prizes and critical water issues for global geographies, with a focus on market-based solutions that enable national competition through improved energy and water services for smart, healthy, and resilient communities.

While aging and deficient infrastructure systems for water, wastewater, transportation, and energy have become the norm in the developed economies, humanity is experiencing new frontiers in digital technologies, globalization, and water-energy connectivity. The trends of urbanization [6], in particular, have many countries and their communities in emerging markets asking how and why water technology and infrastructure modernization could help to increase competitiveness in attracting talent and businesses, enabling new "leapfrogs," and decoupling economic prosperity from environmental damage. Setting triple bottom-line goals—social, economic, and environmental—while harnessing new technologies, trainingentrepreneurship-innovation roadmaps, and multi-sector approaches that meet rising demands for services and while not being hampered by legacy, aging, or deficient systems may offer cities and nations a competitive advantage within a global economy.

To keep pace with growth, it is estimated that by 2030—just 12 years from now—the world may have to produce 40% more clean water, 35% more food, and 50% more energy (UN, World Water Development Report, 2014). Moreover, these basic resources are mutually interdependent—to produce more of any one of the resources requires more of either one or both of the other resources. Increasingly, these resources will have to be made more accessible to locations where the majority of populations will reside in years ahead or to areas increasingly exposed to risk and vulnerability.

A fundamental step to address these challenges is to improve the efficiency of water and energy use. Intrinsically linked, wasteful operating practices in both energy and water systems increase the scarcity and cost of these resources. Both energy and water systems require focused efforts to optimize resource use. The cost and energy savings associated with improving water/wastewater system efficiency through variable frequency drives, fixing pipeline leaks and breaks, and tightening building envelopes to reduce energy loss are well understood. The key challenge to the adoption of these efficiency measures is funding. Funding gaps by power and water/ wastewater utilities create significant obstacles to realizing these simple system improvements.

**4. New urban nexus concepts for resilience and abundance**

et al. [5].

30 Water and Sustainability

Water and energy are national and global priorities for security, economic prosperity, and human well-being. The term "coupling" has been applied to communities and nations that have effectively enabled new synergies between water and energy industries, technologies, infrastructure, or policy trajectories that maximize economic prosperity (or productivity) while enhancing resource or service sustainability (or resilience), respectively. Similarly, "decoupling" often refers to the positive outcome of increasing economic prosperity while reducing environmental impacts and unsustainable resource use. The term "leapfrogging" has also been applied to communities and nations that have adopted new forms of advanced infrastructure, technology, and cooperation, so as to reduce risk among competing

**Figure 1.** Illustration of initial pairwise relations in the FEW nexus framework for a proposed extension of an urban nexus maturity model, to inform and help develop nexus indicators at the urban-regional scale, considering (a) inputs to food, energy, and water systems as well as (b) impacts on each of these systems from the other two. Source: Ahamed

> The following sections offer new city-related concepts and exhibits into the people and communities investing in transformations in urban systems related to water, energy, food-related infrastructure, governance, and new behaviors. These exhibits also help respond to the identified 20 top challenges facing the urban water sector (as identified in an AWWA report: top 20 challenges facing water sector (2018 survey results) in https://www.awwa.org/Portals/0/files/ resources/water%20utility%20management/sotwi/2018\_SOTWI\_Report\_Final\_v3.pdf.

### **4.1. Exhibit A. Designing integrated water-energy-food technology hubs**

*Digital solutions.* John Deere is now using sensors in several of its products to increase farm productivity (http://www.bigdata-startups.com/BigData-startup/john-deere-revolutionizingfarming-big-data/). John Deere uses sensors added to its latest equipment lines to help farmers manage their fleets and to decrease tractor downtime while also saving on fuel. Sensor information is combined with historical and real-time data on weather prediction, soil conditions, crop features, and many other data sets. These tools aim to increase the productivity and efficiency of crops, resulting in higher production and revenue.

The concept of "circular abundance" has been introduced recently for brainstorming new water and energy-related challenges and prize competitions, and the concept focuses on capitalizing on the innovative integration of energy- and water-efficient businesses, technologies, or other resources that flow from one to another in a synergistic, sustainable manner. It envisions a closed-loop model of responsible conservation and economic development that replaces fossil fuels with renewable sources; derives new water from wastewater, rain, and agricultural water; and produces food with recycled energy and water while creating near net-zero waste. This nexus model aggregates and co-locates solutions—such as vertical farming; blue, green, and solar roofs; and waste-to-energy technologies—so as to allow the movement and utilization of resources easily from one production facility to the next. For example, using waste from a fish farm and converting it to energy to run the facility and then incorporating other technologies like efficient water filtration, water reuse, LED grow lights in vertical green houses, and solar panels can make the location ecologically and financially self-sustaining. Sewage water can be transformed into drinking water, electricity, biogas, and ash. And polluted water can be processed to extract fertilizer, industrial chemicals, and metals for reuse/resale. And by co-locating these production processes, we will maximize the efficiency of each individual process, minimize the amount of raw resource inputs (such as fuel, water, and land) required, and eliminate waste. Creating a system of "circular abundance" requires holistic water-foodenergy planning—but in large-scale disconnected systems, the technical and social complexity of the challenge generally overwhelms even the most qualified urban sustainability planners.

A Call to Cities: Run Out of Water or Create Resilience and Abundance?

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33

*Conservation synergy and blended finance.* In 2008, the investor-owned, California-based utility PG&E, along with several water agencies in California, offered a rebate program for highefficiency clothes washers. The rebate in 2013 ranged from \$100 to \$125—this includes a \$50 rebate from PG&E and a variable rebate from \$50 to \$75 from the water utility. PG&E has seen a 63 percent increase in customer participation since the water utilities joined the program and the water utilities have seen a 30 percent increase in their customer participation. The

We are also seeing a movement toward "blended finance" which, as the name implies, brings together diverse sources of capital to fund much needed investment in infrastructure. Two of the key actors in this movement is OECD and University of Oxford (OECD, 2017. Blended finance: mobilizing resources for sustainable development and climate action in developing countries and OECD-WWC-Netherlands Roundtable on Financing Water Second meeting 13 September 2017, Tel Aviv Session 4. Background paper The potential for public, purposed, development and hybrid finance to bridge the water infrastructure gap Alex Money,

There is also great opportunity for the private sector to drive competition and innovation to help water and wastewater utilities adopt efficiency measures. Energy savings performance contracts are established mechanisms used in a variety of sectors to implement building energy improvements; however, these mechanisms are scarcely used in the water/wastewater arena. A challenge specifically focused on fostering private investment in the water/wastewater sector

program has since expanded to 41 municipal, regional, and private water utilities.

**4.3. Exhibit C. Conservation synergy and blended finance**

University of Oxford).

*RENEWW Zones.* By 2030, impoverished peri-urban areas are expected to double in size to almost two billion people. Rapid growth in resource demands due to population growth is already outpacing many governments' ability to extend basic services to slums and informal settlements, while centralized legacy water and sewer infrastructure systems are breaking down. How will communities that cannot meet their populations' needs for sustainable water, food, and energy now be able to meet them in future?

In response to this challenge, the USA is catalyzing a Renewable Energy, Nutrition, Environment, and Water and Waste resource recovery initiative (RENEWW). Innovation zones co-design partnerships between civil society, businesses, academia, and grassroots organizations to build capacity and harness innovations at the nexus of food, energy, water, and other systems that support and foster inclusive, smart, sustainable, healthy, and resilient communities that leverage the best of US innovation. To stimulate the development of game-changing solutions, RENEWW is launching a highly leveraged, incentivized community prosperity prize competition that pushes the limits of what's possible, captures the world's imagination, spurs new thinking, and accelerates change through the creation of RENEWW Zones.

RENEWW Zones are decentralized, closed-loop models of spatial planning and peri-urban service provision that replace fossil energy with renewables; derive new water, biogas, and fertilizer from wastewater; and produce food and biofuel with the recycled inputs, all cogenerated at near net-zero waste. Each RENEWW Zone would offer a green space for community recreation, recycling and sanitation services, as well as a place to purchase fresh food, recycled goods, biofuels, and safe drinking water, all within walking or cycling distance. Ideally, wellplanned RENEWW Zones placed at the outer edge of existing informal settlements would provide a basis for adjacent planned urban extensions. RENEWW Zone business models would create local employment, reinvest profits to support operational costs, and engender new public and private financing. Profitable Zones would scale through replication as local private investors realize the potential profit in serving society's bottom billion.

### **4.2. Exhibit B. Off-grid "circular economy" services—affordable, accessible, and reliable**

Zero Mass Water (https://www.linkedin.com/company/zero-mass-water) has built a residential solar air moisture capture system that can provide safe drinking water for a family of four. The system has been deployed in Ecuador, Jordan, Mexico, and the USA. Essentially, off-grid, safe drinking water is powered by solar energy.

The concept of "circular abundance" has been introduced recently for brainstorming new water and energy-related challenges and prize competitions, and the concept focuses on capitalizing on the innovative integration of energy- and water-efficient businesses, technologies, or other resources that flow from one to another in a synergistic, sustainable manner. It envisions a closed-loop model of responsible conservation and economic development that replaces fossil fuels with renewable sources; derives new water from wastewater, rain, and agricultural water; and produces food with recycled energy and water while creating near net-zero waste.

This nexus model aggregates and co-locates solutions—such as vertical farming; blue, green, and solar roofs; and waste-to-energy technologies—so as to allow the movement and utilization of resources easily from one production facility to the next. For example, using waste from a fish farm and converting it to energy to run the facility and then incorporating other technologies like efficient water filtration, water reuse, LED grow lights in vertical green houses, and solar panels can make the location ecologically and financially self-sustaining. Sewage water can be transformed into drinking water, electricity, biogas, and ash. And polluted water can be processed to extract fertilizer, industrial chemicals, and metals for reuse/resale. And by co-locating these production processes, we will maximize the efficiency of each individual process, minimize the amount of raw resource inputs (such as fuel, water, and land) required, and eliminate waste. Creating a system of "circular abundance" requires holistic water-foodenergy planning—but in large-scale disconnected systems, the technical and social complexity of the challenge generally overwhelms even the most qualified urban sustainability planners.

#### **4.3. Exhibit C. Conservation synergy and blended finance**

**4.1. Exhibit A. Designing integrated water-energy-food technology hubs**

efficiency of crops, resulting in higher production and revenue.

water, food, and energy now be able to meet them in future?

*Digital solutions.* John Deere is now using sensors in several of its products to increase farm productivity (http://www.bigdata-startups.com/BigData-startup/john-deere-revolutionizingfarming-big-data/). John Deere uses sensors added to its latest equipment lines to help farmers manage their fleets and to decrease tractor downtime while also saving on fuel. Sensor information is combined with historical and real-time data on weather prediction, soil conditions, crop features, and many other data sets. These tools aim to increase the productivity and

*RENEWW Zones.* By 2030, impoverished peri-urban areas are expected to double in size to almost two billion people. Rapid growth in resource demands due to population growth is already outpacing many governments' ability to extend basic services to slums and informal settlements, while centralized legacy water and sewer infrastructure systems are breaking down. How will communities that cannot meet their populations' needs for sustainable

In response to this challenge, the USA is catalyzing a Renewable Energy, Nutrition, Environment, and Water and Waste resource recovery initiative (RENEWW). Innovation zones co-design partnerships between civil society, businesses, academia, and grassroots organizations to build capacity and harness innovations at the nexus of food, energy, water, and other systems that support and foster inclusive, smart, sustainable, healthy, and resilient communities that leverage the best of US innovation. To stimulate the development of game-changing solutions, RENEWW is launching a highly leveraged, incentivized community prosperity prize competition that pushes the limits of what's possible, captures the world's imagination, spurs

RENEWW Zones are decentralized, closed-loop models of spatial planning and peri-urban service provision that replace fossil energy with renewables; derive new water, biogas, and fertilizer from wastewater; and produce food and biofuel with the recycled inputs, all cogenerated at near net-zero waste. Each RENEWW Zone would offer a green space for community recreation, recycling and sanitation services, as well as a place to purchase fresh food, recycled goods, biofuels, and safe drinking water, all within walking or cycling distance. Ideally, wellplanned RENEWW Zones placed at the outer edge of existing informal settlements would provide a basis for adjacent planned urban extensions. RENEWW Zone business models would create local employment, reinvest profits to support operational costs, and engender new public and private financing. Profitable Zones would scale through replication as local

new thinking, and accelerates change through the creation of RENEWW Zones.

private investors realize the potential profit in serving society's bottom billion.

safe drinking water is powered by solar energy.

**reliable**

32 Water and Sustainability

**4.2. Exhibit B. Off-grid "circular economy" services—affordable, accessible, and** 

Zero Mass Water (https://www.linkedin.com/company/zero-mass-water) has built a residential solar air moisture capture system that can provide safe drinking water for a family of four. The system has been deployed in Ecuador, Jordan, Mexico, and the USA. Essentially, off-grid,

*Conservation synergy and blended finance.* In 2008, the investor-owned, California-based utility PG&E, along with several water agencies in California, offered a rebate program for highefficiency clothes washers. The rebate in 2013 ranged from \$100 to \$125—this includes a \$50 rebate from PG&E and a variable rebate from \$50 to \$75 from the water utility. PG&E has seen a 63 percent increase in customer participation since the water utilities joined the program and the water utilities have seen a 30 percent increase in their customer participation. The program has since expanded to 41 municipal, regional, and private water utilities.

We are also seeing a movement toward "blended finance" which, as the name implies, brings together diverse sources of capital to fund much needed investment in infrastructure. Two of the key actors in this movement is OECD and University of Oxford (OECD, 2017. Blended finance: mobilizing resources for sustainable development and climate action in developing countries and OECD-WWC-Netherlands Roundtable on Financing Water Second meeting 13 September 2017, Tel Aviv Session 4. Background paper The potential for public, purposed, development and hybrid finance to bridge the water infrastructure gap Alex Money, University of Oxford).

There is also great opportunity for the private sector to drive competition and innovation to help water and wastewater utilities adopt efficiency measures. Energy savings performance contracts are established mechanisms used in a variety of sectors to implement building energy improvements; however, these mechanisms are scarcely used in the water/wastewater arena. A challenge specifically focused on fostering private investment in the water/wastewater sector would reduce both energy use and costs. Through innovative finance models, the private sector would foster a measurable and significant impact on energy use in the water/wastewater sector while also providing capital to help these utilities with the investments needed to address the growing challenge of aging infrastructure. This effort would help to build capacity within the water/wastewater sector on energy use and conservation opportunities while overcoming the perceived obstacles of private sector investment in their systems. It would further incentivize private sector investors to evaluate the business propositions of water/wastewater utilities, identifying new opportunities for US business growth. The energy conservation measures addressed through this financing would be measurable in both cost and energy savings. The end result would be robust water/wastewater utilities that have optimized system performance to conserve energy and cost, freeing up operating budgets to invest in infrastructure repair and replacement programs.

tandem, system integration may enable new opportunities to revolutionize the current paradigm of thinking. Energy use in the water/wastewater sector is poised to grow in order to meet the demands of population growth, deteriorating water quality, and increasingly stringent water regulations. Widespread deployment of variable electricity generation (e.g., wind and solar) is also placing a premium on power system flexibility. The extent to which drinking water and wastewater systems are powered by electricity and can be operated flexibly due to their inherent storage capacity and deferrable loads highlights the growing importance of the relationship between these two critical infrastructure systems and the need for integrated, resilient energy and water systems that perform reliably under normal conditions and are

A Call to Cities: Run Out of Water or Create Resilience and Abundance?

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.82853

35

The power grid is continuously balancing supply, demand, and power quality requirements. Ancillary services are services provided to the grid that help match supply to demand and maintain power quality. Controlling or changing loads to support the grid or "demand response" is a strategy used by power system operators to balance supply and demand. Water/wastewater systems are beginning to explore participation in demand response pro-

*Multinationals and nongovernmental organizations* (*NGOs*). The 2030 Water Resources Group (http://www.2030wrg.org/) released an online database of case studies to address water scarcity risks. It is designed to facilitate adoption of leading practices to cover a wide range of common scarcity challenges as well as proven solutions. The group offers for free download

These interdisciplinary and integrated responses have breakthrough and "leapfrog" potential for improving quality of life and the sustainability and resilience of communities in the

Today, characterization of the critical urban-to-rural water-energy-food sustainability considerations is often lacking, despite increased realization that the drivers of urbanization and city demands also have critical rural impacts—especially under quickly changing economic/

Going forward, can we predict—using data and multiple metrics—where and when rural and urban environments will see vulnerable communities become hotspots of vulnerability and/or seedbeds of innovation? For example, this could include demand/supply/ecological quantity/quality—and identifying where gaps are growing and where climate may add risk—and potentially bring new ethical dilemmas and painful choices. By first taking a look at some key consequences from already unfolding urban water crises, it may be possible to unpack several key messages/hypotheses for further rapid experimentation and evaluation

This can include city strategies and objective assessments that include the ability to:

**4.5. Bridging the rural-urban divide: harnessing emerging technologies and services,** 

the full catalog of in-depth solutions (http://www.waterscarcitysolutions.org/).

prepared for and can recover from disruptive events.

**strategic planning, policy, behavior change, and finance**

grams, but they are still not widely adopted.

context of water.

environmental dynamics.

of effectiveness.

#### **4.4. Exhibit D. Urban, behavioral, and decision science on public-private partnerships**

While humans historically planned for choices related to one-way flows of energy, water, and information (e.g., from a TV/radio, water/wastewater treatment and power plants), new energy and water technologies and their integrated services affording two-way and multidirectional information, energy, and water flows (and feedback for increased efficiency and economic opportunity) have the potential to become essentially ubiquitous in the decades to come. However, the opportunities to provide targeted services that optimize human prosperity, energy, and water benefits remain vastly underutilized and under-imagined.

Moreover, many institutions still appear slow to recognize and respond to the fact that water and energy systems can now behave more nimbly and adapt in real time as a result of recent disruptive changes in technologies and services. A prize is needed to address growing service and industry demands (e.g., for water management in hydraulic fracturing, (waste)water reuse, water for energy/agriculture, asset management, energy in water, and wastewater systems).

By creating a "race" to address the rapid pace of techno-economic change, increased connectivity, and transition opportunities toward improved services, prizes can improve the cost efficiency of water and energy services, and communities could continue to move toward circular economies with resource-efficient systems (including considerations that bring together energy, water, agricultural productivity, land, materials, waste, etc.). These technology and infrastructure service disruptions, if guided by prize challenges that enable higher public benefit, can provide for rapid expansion in choices, new finance revenues, and potential "leapfrogs" in enabling new businesses and industries that improve resident and business siting for co-locating near better services (faster, cheaper, safer, more reliable, cleaner, higher quality). Hybrid decentralized-centralized systems are increasingly viewed as key, and new data and analyses that evaluate the "decoupling," "leapfrogging," and "competitiveness" potential of new, integrated, market-based approaches will be needed.

A growing area of interest is at the intersection of water and energy system operations. These systems are often disconnected and operated independently. However, when considered in tandem, system integration may enable new opportunities to revolutionize the current paradigm of thinking. Energy use in the water/wastewater sector is poised to grow in order to meet the demands of population growth, deteriorating water quality, and increasingly stringent water regulations. Widespread deployment of variable electricity generation (e.g., wind and solar) is also placing a premium on power system flexibility. The extent to which drinking water and wastewater systems are powered by electricity and can be operated flexibly due to their inherent storage capacity and deferrable loads highlights the growing importance of the relationship between these two critical infrastructure systems and the need for integrated, resilient energy and water systems that perform reliably under normal conditions and are prepared for and can recover from disruptive events.

would reduce both energy use and costs. Through innovative finance models, the private sector would foster a measurable and significant impact on energy use in the water/wastewater sector while also providing capital to help these utilities with the investments needed to address the growing challenge of aging infrastructure. This effort would help to build capacity within the water/wastewater sector on energy use and conservation opportunities while overcoming the perceived obstacles of private sector investment in their systems. It would further incentivize private sector investors to evaluate the business propositions of water/wastewater utilities, identifying new opportunities for US business growth. The energy conservation measures addressed through this financing would be measurable in both cost and energy savings. The end result would be robust water/wastewater utilities that have optimized system performance to conserve energy and cost, freeing up operating budgets to invest in infrastructure repair and

**4.4. Exhibit D. Urban, behavioral, and decision science on public-private partnerships**

ity, energy, and water benefits remain vastly underutilized and under-imagined.

potential of new, integrated, market-based approaches will be needed.

While humans historically planned for choices related to one-way flows of energy, water, and information (e.g., from a TV/radio, water/wastewater treatment and power plants), new energy and water technologies and their integrated services affording two-way and multidirectional information, energy, and water flows (and feedback for increased efficiency and economic opportunity) have the potential to become essentially ubiquitous in the decades to come. However, the opportunities to provide targeted services that optimize human prosper-

Moreover, many institutions still appear slow to recognize and respond to the fact that water and energy systems can now behave more nimbly and adapt in real time as a result of recent disruptive changes in technologies and services. A prize is needed to address growing service and industry demands (e.g., for water management in hydraulic fracturing, (waste)water reuse, water for energy/agriculture, asset management, energy in water, and wastewater

By creating a "race" to address the rapid pace of techno-economic change, increased connectivity, and transition opportunities toward improved services, prizes can improve the cost efficiency of water and energy services, and communities could continue to move toward circular economies with resource-efficient systems (including considerations that bring together energy, water, agricultural productivity, land, materials, waste, etc.). These technology and infrastructure service disruptions, if guided by prize challenges that enable higher public benefit, can provide for rapid expansion in choices, new finance revenues, and potential "leapfrogs" in enabling new businesses and industries that improve resident and business siting for co-locating near better services (faster, cheaper, safer, more reliable, cleaner, higher quality). Hybrid decentralized-centralized systems are increasingly viewed as key, and new data and analyses that evaluate the "decoupling," "leapfrogging," and "competitiveness"

A growing area of interest is at the intersection of water and energy system operations. These systems are often disconnected and operated independently. However, when considered in

replacement programs.

34 Water and Sustainability

systems).

The power grid is continuously balancing supply, demand, and power quality requirements. Ancillary services are services provided to the grid that help match supply to demand and maintain power quality. Controlling or changing loads to support the grid or "demand response" is a strategy used by power system operators to balance supply and demand. Water/wastewater systems are beginning to explore participation in demand response programs, but they are still not widely adopted.

*Multinationals and nongovernmental organizations* (*NGOs*). The 2030 Water Resources Group (http://www.2030wrg.org/) released an online database of case studies to address water scarcity risks. It is designed to facilitate adoption of leading practices to cover a wide range of common scarcity challenges as well as proven solutions. The group offers for free download the full catalog of in-depth solutions (http://www.waterscarcitysolutions.org/).

These interdisciplinary and integrated responses have breakthrough and "leapfrog" potential for improving quality of life and the sustainability and resilience of communities in the context of water.

### **4.5. Bridging the rural-urban divide: harnessing emerging technologies and services, strategic planning, policy, behavior change, and finance**

Today, characterization of the critical urban-to-rural water-energy-food sustainability considerations is often lacking, despite increased realization that the drivers of urbanization and city demands also have critical rural impacts—especially under quickly changing economic/ environmental dynamics.

Going forward, can we predict—using data and multiple metrics—where and when rural and urban environments will see vulnerable communities become hotspots of vulnerability and/or seedbeds of innovation? For example, this could include demand/supply/ecological quantity/quality—and identifying where gaps are growing and where climate may add risk—and potentially bring new ethical dilemmas and painful choices. By first taking a look at some key consequences from already unfolding urban water crises, it may be possible to unpack several key messages/hypotheses for further rapid experimentation and evaluation of effectiveness.

This can include city strategies and objective assessments that include the ability to:


*"Ultimately, water scarcity is a challenge for society as a whole, which needs to gather the will to* 

A Call to Cities: Run Out of Water or Create Resilience and Abundance?

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37

**1.** *Engagement*: If the public is unaware and/or does not care, we are destined to see more Cape Towns. It is the responsibility of the public sector to provide access to safe drinking

**2.** *Innovation*: We need a broader view of innovation beyond technology to include business

**3.** *Scale*: Innovative solutions need to be scaled which requires adequate and sustained fund-

**4.** *Pricing*: Access to water is not free; it is now a costly necessity. We need to treat it as such by recognizing that access to water requires investment to protect and provision equitably.

**5.** *Urgency*: Voluntary approaches will not address the water crisis. We need regulatory action

**6.** *Honesty and transparency*: The public sector must acknowledge a new normal, and investments are required to ensure access to water. We no longer can blame the weather. As long as we continue to refer to Cape Town as a natural (rather than man-made) disaster, hope

Given a shared responsibility to manage our scarce fresh water supplies, self-interest demands action. All individuals are ultimately accountable for this shared resource, both to each other

What is the road map for cities? An urban water strategy maturity model is a useful framework to guide cities in developing an actionable strategy to avoid a "Day Zero." Below offers a timeline observing the evolving decision systems that are moving from reactive emergency/ crisis response modes, voluntary programs, and inadequate data systems to proactively accepting responsibility for informed responses to increasing frequency and intensity of

In this maturity model, a road map can move cities from either no strategy or a severely outdated strategy to one where abundance with regard to water is created. Abundance is feasible but only if we acknowledge our current reality and leverage all stakeholders to apply

A critical aspect of moving along the maturity model is ensuring access to granular data and actionable information. For example, values for water/wastewater sector energy use are either high-level estimates (e.g., US water pumping, treatment, and distribution in 2015 required 34.65 billion kWh) or the energy use of specific processes (e.g., ultraviolet disinfection requires 255.5 kWh/million gallons treated). These data are insufficient for researching energy-water utility interactions on a city or national scale as energy use is a function of local water quality, regulations, technologies used, populations served, and geographical layout of systems.

the appropriate technologies and strategies available in the twenty-first century.

*develop a strategic water plan to avert the otherwise inevitable 'Day Zeroes' to come."* What has to change? Here are six steps viewed as essential yet only a beginning:

water (SDG 6) but also the responsibility of the public to support such efforts.

models, financing/funding, public policy, and partnerships.

ing from consumers, government, and the private sector.

will be the best water strategy we can muster.

extremes (**Figure 2**).

that fosters innovation and enforces conservation and does it quickly.

and to future generations counting on our decisions to get this right.


### **5. A path forward: urban maturity framework**

How do we move past business as usual, and what is the road map or response framework for cities? Can cities and nations achieve competitive advantage through integrated sustainability and resilience strategies for transformation toward secure, affordable, reliable water systems and services? Themes emerging in this chapter and across the water industry pointing to new, integrated opportunities increasingly include:


While there are several answers to move cities to a thriving, resilient state with equitable access to safe drinking water, there is no silver bullet. Clear examples exist on two sides of the same coin (as to human behavior/decisions): 'necessity as the mother of innovation' and 'if it ain't broke, do not fix it, both of which are business as usual responses. In essence, how do we avoid business as usual failures in Cape Town, South Africa, that have occurred also across the many other cities?

Certainly, what is needed are better data and actionable information. However, we also need a process to use actionable information to inform public policy innovation to accelerate scaling of innovative technologies, funding and financing strategies, and partnerships and business models. To a significant extent, we need to mobilize all stakeholders, including but not limited to the public sector, to ensure water to drive economic vitality (Averting the Next Cape Town).

*"Ultimately, water scarcity is a challenge for society as a whole, which needs to gather the will to develop a strategic water plan to avert the otherwise inevitable 'Day Zeroes' to come."*

What has to change? Here are six steps viewed as essential yet only a beginning:

• Define and measure innovation, reinvention, and maturity of responses.

exchange, communities of practice, and feedback loops.

**5. A path forward: urban maturity framework**

integrated opportunities increasingly include:

• Shared/circular economy/closed-loop services

• Data/transparency for agile development

• Personalized and valued services

cities.

36 Water and Sustainability

other cities?

Cape Town).

• Identify sweet spots of service users, designers/operators, and cross-scale policy actors (including public, civil society, business/firms) and their roles in rural to urban settings.

• Proactively move responses at the speed of need by creating continuous dialog and

• Predict, mitigate, and finance immediate responses to long-term strategy (with evaluation of past failures, ethical dilemmas, and policy processes) for enabling secure and resilient

• Expose future interurban risk/vulnerability hotspots and resilience strategies (as maps).

How do we move past business as usual, and what is the road map or response framework for cities? Can cities and nations achieve competitive advantage through integrated sustainability and resilience strategies for transformation toward secure, affordable, reliable water systems and services? Themes emerging in this chapter and across the water industry pointing to new,

• Multidisciplinary approaches to breaking down boundaries and enabling new finance • Diversification and decentralization with limited hierarchy enabling new accessibility • Advocating and measuring for "excellence" using creative, entrepreneurial approaches

While there are several answers to move cities to a thriving, resilient state with equitable access to safe drinking water, there is no silver bullet. Clear examples exist on two sides of the same coin (as to human behavior/decisions): 'necessity as the mother of innovation' and 'if it ain't broke, do not fix it, both of which are business as usual responses. In essence, how do we avoid business as usual failures in Cape Town, South Africa, that have occurred also across the many

Certainly, what is needed are better data and actionable information. However, we also need a process to use actionable information to inform public policy innovation to accelerate scaling of innovative technologies, funding and financing strategies, and partnerships and business models. To a significant extent, we need to mobilize all stakeholders, including but not limited to the public sector, to ensure water to drive economic vitality (Averting the Next


Given a shared responsibility to manage our scarce fresh water supplies, self-interest demands action. All individuals are ultimately accountable for this shared resource, both to each other and to future generations counting on our decisions to get this right.

What is the road map for cities? An urban water strategy maturity model is a useful framework to guide cities in developing an actionable strategy to avoid a "Day Zero." Below offers a timeline observing the evolving decision systems that are moving from reactive emergency/ crisis response modes, voluntary programs, and inadequate data systems to proactively accepting responsibility for informed responses to increasing frequency and intensity of extremes (**Figure 2**).

In this maturity model, a road map can move cities from either no strategy or a severely outdated strategy to one where abundance with regard to water is created. Abundance is feasible but only if we acknowledge our current reality and leverage all stakeholders to apply the appropriate technologies and strategies available in the twenty-first century.

A critical aspect of moving along the maturity model is ensuring access to granular data and actionable information. For example, values for water/wastewater sector energy use are either high-level estimates (e.g., US water pumping, treatment, and distribution in 2015 required 34.65 billion kWh) or the energy use of specific processes (e.g., ultraviolet disinfection requires 255.5 kWh/million gallons treated). These data are insufficient for researching energy-water utility interactions on a city or national scale as energy use is a function of local water quality, regulations, technologies used, populations served, and geographical layout of systems.




of and enabling decision-making. This can include foci of water yet also broader emerging technologies coupled with new insights into human behaviors and decision processes within contexts of urban crises. Urban dimensions of mitigating risks to and increasing productivity of water infrastructure services are now more critical than ever. Further, road maps could aim to explore how, why, and where connected, automated, decentralized, and 100% renewable energy-driven water treatment systems and the critical services they enable can help achieve

A Call to Cities: Run Out of Water or Create Resilience and Abundance?

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.82853

39

Future research and analyses could focus on at least three urban sites moving from painful decisions to abundant choices and increased resilience that has returns on investment (e.g., from new revenues enabled via system integration). In-depth case studies over several years may also be needed in order to inform effectiveness of responses to acute challenges as well as the longer-term design, operation, and use of systems/services in urbanizing to aging/legacy

Existing and new data streams coupled with visualization tools as means to provide interdisciplinary teams with evidence for water security, water-efficient energy, and agricultural systems to energy-efficient water delivery systems and infrastructure could all prove valuable. Maturity models and frameworks that operationalize the extent to which urban areas are harnessing emerging data technology-human behavior-decision processes that can help enable transformations is a key message of this chapter, building on the characterization of the extent to which current challenges exist, motivating conditions for (revolutionary and disruptive) change to future prospects of sustainable trajectories toward the security and resilience of

New integrated road maps have the potential to substantially increase water and energy productivity, affordability, and resilience of urban (and trans-boundary regional) infrastructure. These infrastructures not only refer to the maturity of the technological and built environments yet also the diverse engineered-natural-social-cyber systems that provide water, energy, goods, and information services to more than 50% of the population living in cities today.

With rapidly increasing populations, projected resource scarcities, and vulnerability to disasters, smart and resilient cities will require new, high-performing, cost-effective infrastructures for future water (and energy) systems. One overarching question to be addressed moving forward might be: 'What are the interconnections of sectors, disciplines, and decision-making domains that must be explored to design sustainable, smart, resilient, and modern urban

smart, sustainable, healthy, and resilient cities.

infrastructure-dependent cities.

people, infrastructures, and resources.

water and infrastructure systems of the future?'

\*Address all correspondence to: will@waterfoundry.com

2 National Renewable Energy Lab, Denver, Colorado, United States

1 Water Foundry, Denver, Colorado, United States

\* and Josh Sperling2

**Author details**

Will Sarni1


**Figure 2.** Urban response maturity model.

A solution to this critical challenge is to create an industry-validated energy dataset for water and wastewater utilities, and a water dataset for municipal, energy, and agricultural production activities helping to inform and quantify demand response opportunities for water/ wastewater utilities and cities and provide new insights into the complex flows between electricity, agriculture, and water/wastewater utilities in the USA. Through a competitive prize challenge, entities could submit innovative approaches to collect and maintain this data, make it publicly available, and apply it to quantify, at a national level, the opportunities that exist for water/wastewater utilities to provide grid services.

This type of concept could define and enrich the understanding of how energy is used in the water and wastewater sectors or vice versa, as well as the potential for utility services that these systems can provide, helping to bridge the knowledge gap between water and energy systems and advancing maturity in this area. Identifying potential energy-water value propositions to water/wastewater utilities and the electric utilities that serve them is key. Further, such work can foster future dialog, technology, and policy solutions to complex challenges of integrating water-energy-"X" systems.

### **6. Conclusions: partnerships to inform smart and resilient systems**

*Additional research and practitioner efforts are needed to* develop a network and community of research and practice that brings together interdisciplinary innovations from universities and national labs to the private sector who will coordinate their work, with focus on assessment of and enabling decision-making. This can include foci of water yet also broader emerging technologies coupled with new insights into human behaviors and decision processes within contexts of urban crises. Urban dimensions of mitigating risks to and increasing productivity of water infrastructure services are now more critical than ever. Further, road maps could aim to explore how, why, and where connected, automated, decentralized, and 100% renewable energy-driven water treatment systems and the critical services they enable can help achieve smart, sustainable, healthy, and resilient cities.

Future research and analyses could focus on at least three urban sites moving from painful decisions to abundant choices and increased resilience that has returns on investment (e.g., from new revenues enabled via system integration). In-depth case studies over several years may also be needed in order to inform effectiveness of responses to acute challenges as well as the longer-term design, operation, and use of systems/services in urbanizing to aging/legacy infrastructure-dependent cities.

Existing and new data streams coupled with visualization tools as means to provide interdisciplinary teams with evidence for water security, water-efficient energy, and agricultural systems to energy-efficient water delivery systems and infrastructure could all prove valuable.

Maturity models and frameworks that operationalize the extent to which urban areas are harnessing emerging data technology-human behavior-decision processes that can help enable transformations is a key message of this chapter, building on the characterization of the extent to which current challenges exist, motivating conditions for (revolutionary and disruptive) change to future prospects of sustainable trajectories toward the security and resilience of people, infrastructures, and resources.

New integrated road maps have the potential to substantially increase water and energy productivity, affordability, and resilience of urban (and trans-boundary regional) infrastructure. These infrastructures not only refer to the maturity of the technological and built environments yet also the diverse engineered-natural-social-cyber systems that provide water, energy, goods, and information services to more than 50% of the population living in cities today.

With rapidly increasing populations, projected resource scarcities, and vulnerability to disasters, smart and resilient cities will require new, high-performing, cost-effective infrastructures for future water (and energy) systems. One overarching question to be addressed moving forward might be: 'What are the interconnections of sectors, disciplines, and decision-making domains that must be explored to design sustainable, smart, resilient, and modern urban water and infrastructure systems of the future?'

### **Author details**

A solution to this critical challenge is to create an industry-validated energy dataset for water and wastewater utilities, and a water dataset for municipal, energy, and agricultural production activities helping to inform and quantify demand response opportunities for water/ wastewater utilities and cities and provide new insights into the complex flows between electricity, agriculture, and water/wastewater utilities in the USA. Through a competitive prize challenge, entities could submit innovative approaches to collect and maintain this data, make it publicly available, and apply it to quantify, at a national level, the opportunities that exist

This type of concept could define and enrich the understanding of how energy is used in the water and wastewater sectors or vice versa, as well as the potential for utility services that these systems can provide, helping to bridge the knowledge gap between water and energy systems and advancing maturity in this area. Identifying potential energy-water value propositions to water/wastewater utilities and the electric utilities that serve them is key. Further, such work can foster future dialog, technology, and policy solutions to complex challenges of

**6. Conclusions: partnerships to inform smart and resilient systems**

*Additional research and practitioner efforts are needed to* develop a network and community of research and practice that brings together interdisciplinary innovations from universities and national labs to the private sector who will coordinate their work, with focus on assessment

for water/wastewater utilities to provide grid services.

integrating water-energy-"X" systems.

**Figure 2.** Urban response maturity model.

38 Water and Sustainability

Will Sarni1 \* and Josh Sperling2

\*Address all correspondence to: will@waterfoundry.com

1 Water Foundry, Denver, Colorado, United States

2 National Renewable Energy Lab, Denver, Colorado, United States

### **References**


**Chapter 4**

, the

**Provisional chapter**

**Water, Ecosystem Dynamics and Human Livelihoods in**

**Water, Ecosystem Dynamics and Human Livelihoods in** 

DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.80554

**the Okavango River Basin (ORB): Competing Needs or**

**the Okavango River Basin (ORB): Competing Needs or** 

Freshwater is essential to life, and its availability poses a significant challenge to developmental needs and environmental sustainability globally. Due to increasing populations, global water requirements have increased in the twentieth century, and the trend is similar in the Okavango River Basin (ORB). With a total annual flow of 11 km<sup>3</sup>

ORB is characterised by a flood pulse regime that drives and supports a diverse ecosociological system. The Okavango River is a potential water source for the development of the semi-arid nation states of Botswana and Namibia. Therefore, there is a need to ensure that the water resource of this system is managed effectively to ensure water sustainability in the basin. Current water demand in the basin is less than 1% of the current total discharge, while projected demand over the next 10 years also falls below the total discharge. Moreover, the ORB is characterised by multi-functional use, where riparian communities have adapted to change hydrological conditions. While the ORB is relatively pristine, there are potential threats in this system, which can affect its water resources. We conclude that there is a need for a harmonised legislative framework in the

**Keywords:** water scarcity, water management, water governance, transboundary water

basin to ensure that the ethos of water sustainability is maintained.

© 2016 The Author(s). Licensee InTech. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

© 2018 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,

distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

**Balanced Use? A Review**

**Balanced Use? A Review**

Oliver Moses, Masego Dhliwayo,

and Bernice Setomba

**Abstract**

resources management

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.80554

Ketlhatlogile Mosepele, Wame L. Hambira,

Ketlhatlogile Mosepele, Wame L. Hambira,

Anastacia Makati and Bernice Setomba

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

Goemeone E.J. Mogomotsi, Patricia K. Mogomotsi,

Goemeone E.J. Mogomotsi, Patricia K. Mogomotsi, Oliver Moses, Masego Dhliwayo, Anastacia Makati


#### **Water, Ecosystem Dynamics and Human Livelihoods in the Okavango River Basin (ORB): Competing Needs or Balanced Use? A Review Water, Ecosystem Dynamics and Human Livelihoods in the Okavango River Basin (ORB): Competing Needs or Balanced Use? A Review**

DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.80554

Ketlhatlogile Mosepele, Wame L. Hambira, Goemeone E.J. Mogomotsi, Patricia K. Mogomotsi, Oliver Moses, Masego Dhliwayo, Anastacia Makati and Bernice Setomba Ketlhatlogile Mosepele, Wame L. Hambira, Goemeone E.J. Mogomotsi, Patricia K. Mogomotsi, Oliver Moses, Masego Dhliwayo, Anastacia Makati and Bernice Setomba

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.80554

**Abstract**

**References**

40 Water and Sustainability

[1] Arup. The Future of Urban Water: Sao Paulo. 2016

term=.826b245a97c9 [Accessed: July 2018]

2018;**23**(1):1. DOI: 10.5751/ES-09712-230101

pii/S0959378014000880 [Accessed: July 2018]

bangalore-faces-man-made-water-crisis [Accessed: July 2018]

[2] eNCA. Bangalore Faces Man-Made Water Crisis. 2018. https://www.enca.com/world/

[3] Rashad J. The world's longest river is in trouble. The Washington Post. 2018. https:// www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/2018/03/22/egypt/?utm\_

[4] Tellman B, Bausch JC, Eakin H, Anderies JM, Mazari-Hiriart M, Manuel-Navarrete D, et al. Adaptive pathways and coupled infrastructure: Seven centuries of adaptation to water risk and the production of vulnerability in Mexico City. Ecology and Society.

[5] Ahamed S, Sperling J, Galford G, Stephens J, Arent D. The food-energy-water nexus, regional sustainability, and hydraulic fracturing: An integrated assessment of the Denver region. Case Studies in the Environment. 2019;**2019**:1-21. DOI: 10.1525/cse.2018.001735

[6] McDonald RI, Weber K, Padowski J, Flörke M, Schneider C, Green PA, et al. Water on an urban planet: Urbanization and the reach of urban water infrastructure. Global Environmental Change. 2014;**27**:96-105 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/

> Freshwater is essential to life, and its availability poses a significant challenge to developmental needs and environmental sustainability globally. Due to increasing populations, global water requirements have increased in the twentieth century, and the trend is similar in the Okavango River Basin (ORB). With a total annual flow of 11 km<sup>3</sup> , the ORB is characterised by a flood pulse regime that drives and supports a diverse ecosociological system. The Okavango River is a potential water source for the development of the semi-arid nation states of Botswana and Namibia. Therefore, there is a need to ensure that the water resource of this system is managed effectively to ensure water sustainability in the basin. Current water demand in the basin is less than 1% of the current total discharge, while projected demand over the next 10 years also falls below the total discharge. Moreover, the ORB is characterised by multi-functional use, where riparian communities have adapted to change hydrological conditions. While the ORB is relatively pristine, there are potential threats in this system, which can affect its water resources. We conclude that there is a need for a harmonised legislative framework in the basin to ensure that the ethos of water sustainability is maintained.

> **Keywords:** water scarcity, water management, water governance, transboundary water resources management

© 2016 The Author(s). Licensee InTech. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2018 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

## **1. Introduction**

There are 214 transboundary river basins in the world [1], which cover large parts of Arica, Europe, Asia and the Middle East, and were inhabited by 58% of the world population in 2010 [2]. This makes transboundary river basins critical foci of human livelihoods. They are a source of freshwater, which is essential for life [3, 4]. The world's land and water resources are finite and under pressure from population growth [5], climate change and pollution [6]. Water resources management becomes more challenging when water resources straddle international boundaries [2], such as in the Okavango River Basin (ORB). Floodplains have always played a key role in human livelihoods [7] and also have the ORB [8]. According to Junk [7], hydrology is the key "environmental forcing factor in wetlands"; therefore, maintenance of natural flow conditions is critical for the environmental sustainability of the ORB. Hence, management of the ORB is critical towards sustenance and maintenance of human life among the basin states. However, humans have always withdrawn freshwater from sources such as rivers, wetlands and lakes for various needs such as agriculture, energy and industrial activities, at the exclusion of ecosystem needs [3]. Therefore, ensuring water sustainability in the ORB will require finding a balance between competing human needs and ecosystem functioning.

and 690,000 km2

, with a population of approximately 900,000 [5, 10, 14]. According to Barnes

Water, Ecosystem Dynamics and Human Livelihoods in the Okavango River Basin (ORB)…

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43

et al. [15], the population in the basin is predominantly rural and remote and has higher population growth rates than national averages. The basin's population is expected to grow to 1.28 million people by 2025 with 62% of the population living in Angola, 22% in Namibia and 16% in Botswana [10]. Assuming a medium variant growth, the river basin population will increase to 5.1 million people in Angola but will plateau in Botswana and Namibia by 2050

According to Wolski et al. [12], the ORB is composed of an upper part (in Angola) characterised by a typical river catchment and a lower terminal part (in Botswana) consisting of the Okavango Delta and terminal rivers, where the "water's ultimate sink is evaporation to the atmosphere". The ORB has four catchment areas, which the Angolan headwaters (in Angola), the middle reaches (in Namibia) and the Botswana portion, which consists of the panhandle and the delta ([10, 17], Figure 1). This system is drained by the Okavango River, which is one of the largest rivers in Africa [13]. Because of its location in an arid area, the Okavango River

[16]. This is expected to increase pressure on the ORB, especially in Angola [9].

is a major source of water in the region [13].

**Figure 1.** The Okavango River Basin (ORB).

The waters of the Okavango River are a potential source of development for the semi-arid nation states of Namibia and Botswana [8]. Therefore, water is both a key and a limited resource in the ORB [9]. Because of its uniqueness, national socio-economic development polices have added pressure on the water resources of this river system [10] in their endeavour to uplift the socio-economic status of the basin's impoverished communities. However, water sustainability becomes more urgent and acute in transboundary river systems because of the diverse hydro-political and socio-economic drivers that exist. Munia et al. [2] highlight that transboundary rivers create hydrological, social and economic interdependencies among societies, which make transboundary water resources management challenging.

Some of the key transboundary management areas of concern identified by OKACOM [10] in the ORB are variation and reduction in hydrological flow, changes in sediment dynamics, changes in water quality and changes in the abundance and distribution of biota. These issues are driven primarily by population dynamics, land-use change, poverty and climate change. According to OKACOM [10], the major transboundary concern is that increasing populations in the basin will result in increased demand for food crops with subsequent pressure on land, which will invariably result in changes in water quality. Undoubtedly, well-managed water resources can be a significant driver of growth with benefits for human livelihoods and ecosystem functioning [11]. Therefore, the main goal of this chapter is to contribute knowledge that will contribute towards a water resources framework for the ORB with the aim of achieving water sustainability.

### **2. Description of the study area**

The ORB is located in central Southern Africa (**Figure 1**) and covers a broad climatic gradient from a high rainfall zone in the Angolan highlands, through a semi-arid Namibia and ends in the semi-arid Northern Botswana [12]. It covers a total surface area of between 20,000 Km2 [13] and 690,000 km2 , with a population of approximately 900,000 [5, 10, 14]. According to Barnes et al. [15], the population in the basin is predominantly rural and remote and has higher population growth rates than national averages. The basin's population is expected to grow to 1.28 million people by 2025 with 62% of the population living in Angola, 22% in Namibia and 16% in Botswana [10]. Assuming a medium variant growth, the river basin population will increase to 5.1 million people in Angola but will plateau in Botswana and Namibia by 2050 [16]. This is expected to increase pressure on the ORB, especially in Angola [9].

According to Wolski et al. [12], the ORB is composed of an upper part (in Angola) characterised by a typical river catchment and a lower terminal part (in Botswana) consisting of the Okavango Delta and terminal rivers, where the "water's ultimate sink is evaporation to the atmosphere". The ORB has four catchment areas, which the Angolan headwaters (in Angola), the middle reaches (in Namibia) and the Botswana portion, which consists of the panhandle and the delta ([10, 17], Figure 1). This system is drained by the Okavango River, which is one of the largest rivers in Africa [13]. Because of its location in an arid area, the Okavango River is a major source of water in the region [13].

**Figure 1.** The Okavango River Basin (ORB).

**1. Introduction**

42 Water and Sustainability

There are 214 transboundary river basins in the world [1], which cover large parts of Arica, Europe, Asia and the Middle East, and were inhabited by 58% of the world population in 2010 [2]. This makes transboundary river basins critical foci of human livelihoods. They are a source of freshwater, which is essential for life [3, 4]. The world's land and water resources are finite and under pressure from population growth [5], climate change and pollution [6]. Water resources management becomes more challenging when water resources straddle international boundaries [2], such as in the Okavango River Basin (ORB). Floodplains have always played a key role in human livelihoods [7] and also have the ORB [8]. According to Junk [7], hydrology is the key "environmental forcing factor in wetlands"; therefore, maintenance of natural flow conditions is critical for the environmental sustainability of the ORB. Hence, management of the ORB is critical towards sustenance and maintenance of human life among the basin states. However, humans have always withdrawn freshwater from sources such as rivers, wetlands and lakes for various needs such as agriculture, energy and industrial activities, at the exclusion of ecosystem needs [3]. Therefore, ensuring water sustainability in the ORB will require finding a balance between competing human needs and ecosystem functioning. The waters of the Okavango River are a potential source of development for the semi-arid nation states of Namibia and Botswana [8]. Therefore, water is both a key and a limited resource in the ORB [9]. Because of its uniqueness, national socio-economic development polices have added pressure on the water resources of this river system [10] in their endeavour to uplift the socio-economic status of the basin's impoverished communities. However, water sustainability becomes more urgent and acute in transboundary river systems because of the diverse hydro-political and socio-economic drivers that exist. Munia et al. [2] highlight that transboundary rivers create hydrological, social and economic interdependencies among

societies, which make transboundary water resources management challenging.

water resources framework for the ORB with the aim of achieving water sustainability.

The ORB is located in central Southern Africa (**Figure 1**) and covers a broad climatic gradient from a high rainfall zone in the Angolan highlands, through a semi-arid Namibia and ends in the semi-arid Northern Botswana [12]. It covers a total surface area of between 20,000 Km2

[13]

**2. Description of the study area**

Some of the key transboundary management areas of concern identified by OKACOM [10] in the ORB are variation and reduction in hydrological flow, changes in sediment dynamics, changes in water quality and changes in the abundance and distribution of biota. These issues are driven primarily by population dynamics, land-use change, poverty and climate change. According to OKACOM [10], the major transboundary concern is that increasing populations in the basin will result in increased demand for food crops with subsequent pressure on land, which will invariably result in changes in water quality. Undoubtedly, well-managed water resources can be a significant driver of growth with benefits for human livelihoods and ecosystem functioning [11]. Therefore, the main goal of this chapter is to contribute knowledge that will contribute towards a Total annual water inflow in the ORB, characterised by an annual flood pulse, is approximately 10,900 Mm<sup>3</sup> [18], while that of the lower basin is 9600 Mm<sup>3</sup> [10, 18, 19] and drought flow is 3120 Mm<sup>3</sup> [18]. Peak flow of this flood pulse from the Bie Plateau in Angola reaches the delta in Botswana between February and April [19, 20], which coincides with the end of the rainy season in Botswana [20]. All the water flow in the system is generated upstream of the confluences of the Cubango and Cuatir Rivers in the west and the Cuito and Longa Rivers in the east [10], with a combined area of 38,700 km2 , contributed 5185 Mm<sup>3</sup> /annum of water into the system, which is 48% of the total water volume in the ORB [10]. In fact, the Cuito River is the most important for downstream flows into Namibia and Botswana [18], hence any changes to water flow in this river system will have a significant impact on discharge into these two countries. Overall, the Angolan catchment is approximately 13,000 km2 and contributes about 95% of the water inflow into the system [14]. There is multi-decadal-scale variability in rainfall, temperature and discharge characterised by 30-year non-overlapping periods in the basin [21].

**3.1. Water quantity**

absolute scarcity.

**Core element Indicator**

Water quantity 1. Environmental water stress

Water quality 4. Nutrient pollution

Governance 10. Legal framework

Socio-economics 13. Economic dependence on water resources

Cross-cutting 16. Exposure to climate change

This is adapted from UNEP-DHI and UNEP [25].

(TWAP) that underpins the theoretical framework for this study.

Ecosystems 6. Wetland dis-connectivity

The global population is growing steadily, and this will result in a corresponding increase in water demand for food production, especially from wetlands [26]. Invariably, this may result in water scarcity, which is defined by Matlock [27] as a function of available water resources for the human population, where the *Falkenmark* indicator is a widely used indicator of water stress. The different *Falkenmark* categories are shown in **Table 2** and range from no stress to

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45

African growth is expected to be driven largely by primary and secondary (economic) sectors, which are heavily reliant on water, with irrigation as a key food production activity [6]. However, agricultural water demand (agricultural water stress) in the basin includes livestock water and irrigation [5]. Indicators of agriculture-induced water stress in some global basins include "closed basins, reduction of groundwater resources, loss of wetlands and habitat fragmentation" [26]. Therefore, there is a need to ensure that agricultural water demands are balanced against ecosystem water needs, which are often defined as environmental flows. According to Forslund et al. [28], these refer to the quantity, quality and timing of flows that are needed to sustain ecosystems. These flows are partitioned between ecosystem needs and other key users such as agriculture, power generation, domestic use and industry [29].

> 2. Human water stress 3. Agriculture water stress

5. Wastewater pollution

8. Threats to fish 9. Extinction risk

7. Ecosystem impacts from dams

11. Hydro-political tension 12. Enabling environment

14. Societal wellbeing

**Table 1.** Summary of the five core elements and associated indicators of the transboundary waters assessment programme

15. Exposure to floods and droughts

According to Pröpper et al. [22], woodlands on Kalahari sands are the major land cover type in the ORB, followed closely by Miombo forests. Other land cover classes in the ORB are thorn-bush savanna and shrub and grasslands, while wetlands constitute 7.3% of the land cover in the basin. Furthermore, SAREP [23] observed that Miombo woodlands dominate the upper catchment of the basin, which graduates into deciduous woodlands in the middle reaches (Namibia), which then turns into mixed acacia and mophane woodland in the lower reaches (delta). The delta, a key biodiversity hotspot in the basin [20, 24], hosts approximately 1300 plant, 444 bird, 122 mammal, 64 reptile, 33 amphibian and 71 fish species [19].

The ORB is one of the least developed basins in Africa [4, 10, 13] and supports predominately rural communities [10] with a relatively low population density [4]. It is relatively pristine, possibly due to a strong conservation ethic in Botswana, which is focused on tourism, poor agricultural soils and a civil war that ravaged the catchment area (Angola) from 1970 until 2000 [10, 12]. However, the end of the civil war has resulted in a rapid population build up in the catchment [12], which might result in development pressures on the basin in the future. Poverty rates among communities living within the ORB are much higher than the national average among the three countries [5]. Generally, poor people depend more on natural resources as social safety nets than communities in urban areas, which can invariably lead to environmental degradation [15].

## **3. Theoretical framework**

This study used primary and secondary data, which was then integrated with literature review to produce a state-of-the-art analysis of water sustainability in the Okavango River Basin. The transboundary water assessment programme [25] framework was used in this study to assess water sustainability in the ORB. There are five core elements of the framework, which include water quantity, water quality, ecosystems, governance and socio-economics. These core elements have 15 indicators associated with them as summarised in **Table 1**. We added a 16th indicator, which reflects the importance of climate change as a major factor that needs to be incorporated into water resources management.

#### **3.1. Water quantity**

Total annual water inflow in the ORB, characterised by an annual flood pulse, is approximately

Botswana between February and April [19, 20], which coincides with the end of the rainy season in Botswana [20]. All the water flow in the system is generated upstream of the confluences of the Cubango and Cuatir Rivers in the west and the Cuito and Longa Rivers in the east [10], with

is 48% of the total water volume in the ORB [10]. In fact, the Cuito River is the most important for downstream flows into Namibia and Botswana [18], hence any changes to water flow in this river system will have a significant impact on discharge into these two countries. Overall,

inflow into the system [14]. There is multi-decadal-scale variability in rainfall, temperature and

According to Pröpper et al. [22], woodlands on Kalahari sands are the major land cover type in the ORB, followed closely by Miombo forests. Other land cover classes in the ORB are thorn-bush savanna and shrub and grasslands, while wetlands constitute 7.3% of the land cover in the basin. Furthermore, SAREP [23] observed that Miombo woodlands dominate the upper catchment of the basin, which graduates into deciduous woodlands in the middle reaches (Namibia), which then turns into mixed acacia and mophane woodland in the lower reaches (delta). The delta, a key biodiversity hotspot in the basin [20, 24], hosts approximately

The ORB is one of the least developed basins in Africa [4, 10, 13] and supports predominately rural communities [10] with a relatively low population density [4]. It is relatively pristine, possibly due to a strong conservation ethic in Botswana, which is focused on tourism, poor agricultural soils and a civil war that ravaged the catchment area (Angola) from 1970 until 2000 [10, 12]. However, the end of the civil war has resulted in a rapid population build up in the catchment [12], which might result in development pressures on the basin in the future. Poverty rates among communities living within the ORB are much higher than the national average among the three countries [5]. Generally, poor people depend more on natural resources as social safety nets than communities in urban areas, which can invariably lead to environmental

This study used primary and secondary data, which was then integrated with literature review to produce a state-of-the-art analysis of water sustainability in the Okavango River Basin. The transboundary water assessment programme [25] framework was used in this study to assess water sustainability in the ORB. There are five core elements of the framework, which include water quantity, water quality, ecosystems, governance and socio-economics. These core elements have 15 indicators associated with them as summarised in **Table 1**. We added a 16th indicator, which reflects the importance of climate change as a major factor that

, contributed 5185 Mm<sup>3</sup>

discharge characterised by 30-year non-overlapping periods in the basin [21].

1300 plant, 444 bird, 122 mammal, 64 reptile, 33 amphibian and 71 fish species [19].

[18]. Peak flow of this flood pulse from the Bie Plateau in Angola reaches the delta in

[10, 18, 19] and drought flow is

/annum of water into the system, which

and contributes about 95% of the water

[18], while that of the lower basin is 9600 Mm<sup>3</sup>

10,900 Mm<sup>3</sup>

44 Water and Sustainability

degradation [15].

**3. Theoretical framework**

needs to be incorporated into water resources management.

a combined area of 38,700 km2

the Angolan catchment is approximately 13,000 km2

3120 Mm<sup>3</sup>

The global population is growing steadily, and this will result in a corresponding increase in water demand for food production, especially from wetlands [26]. Invariably, this may result in water scarcity, which is defined by Matlock [27] as a function of available water resources for the human population, where the *Falkenmark* indicator is a widely used indicator of water stress. The different *Falkenmark* categories are shown in **Table 2** and range from no stress to absolute scarcity.

African growth is expected to be driven largely by primary and secondary (economic) sectors, which are heavily reliant on water, with irrigation as a key food production activity [6]. However, agricultural water demand (agricultural water stress) in the basin includes livestock water and irrigation [5]. Indicators of agriculture-induced water stress in some global basins include "closed basins, reduction of groundwater resources, loss of wetlands and habitat fragmentation" [26]. Therefore, there is a need to ensure that agricultural water demands are balanced against ecosystem water needs, which are often defined as environmental flows. According to Forslund et al. [28], these refer to the quantity, quality and timing of flows that are needed to sustain ecosystems. These flows are partitioned between ecosystem needs and other key users such as agriculture, power generation, domestic use and industry [29].


**Table 1.** Summary of the five core elements and associated indicators of the transboundary waters assessment programme (TWAP) that underpins the theoretical framework for this study.


by weak institutions. Therefore, good water governance should include shared water

Water, Ecosystem Dynamics and Human Livelihoods in the Okavango River Basin (ORB)…

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47

Sustainable transboundary water management is anchored upon substantive and procedural criteria ([41], Figure 2). The substantive criteria are circumscribed by three legal obligations. The "equitable and reasonable utilisation" criterion is the cornerstone of international water law and is the anchor for transboundary water governance, while the "duty not to cause significant harm" criterion refers to limiting pollution or over-exploitation, which might have a negative impact on the environment. The "protection and conservation of ecosystems" criterion is self-explanatory. The procedural criteria are anchored on four key obligations. The "notification and information exchange" criterion is implemented when parties notify others of planned developments that might negatively affect other users. The "environmental impact" criterion refers to a process of making informed developmental decisions based on a thorough analysis of anticipated environmental impacts. This criterion also provides a platform for community participation, which is also explicitly stated in the "public participation" criterion, and refers to the obligation to consult the public. When the "access to justice" criterion is upheld, then "information exchange and public participation rely on enforcement and review mechanisms to ensure efficacy and equity" [41]. Furthermore, this framework can create an enabling legislative environment that can reduce/minimise hydro-political tensions

courses [6], which will ameliorate any hydro-political tensions among basin states.

between the basin states, through by creating an enabling environment.

**Figure 2.** The Good Transboundary Water Governance Matrix reproduced from Orme et al. [41].

**Table 2.** Summary of *Falkenmark* categories used in the assessment of water scarcity in the ORB.

### **3.2. Water quality**

River catchment degradation is a key issue of concern in contemporary river basin management in tropical systems. This degradation is driven by increasing population pressures, which place a heavy burden on natural resources [30]. Therefore, water quality management in river systems is critical towards controlling river pollution in which land use is a critical component of water quality in river basins [31]. The key land-use types that affect water quality in river basins are urban and agricultural activities, whose key indicators are elevated concentrations of bacteria, pesticides and nutrients [32]. Failure by governments to preserve water quality of surface waters, especially in river basins, may enhance fragility of communities [33].

#### **3.3. Ecosystems**

Wetlands are a key source of goods and services but are threatened by unsustainable use, both within wetlands and also in the upstream catchments [34]. They are biodiversity hotspots and foci of high biological production at the water-land interface [35] and are critical for biodiversity conservation [36]. Some key wetlands' resources include freshwater for human livelihoods, fish and flood protection [37]. Wetlands play an important role in river basins, while human activity within those river basins can have a negative impact on wetlands [36] usually driven by population growth [38], land-use change and climate change [10]. Because wetlands provide benefits to basins [39], there is a need to integrate their management into basin management [36] to ensure that this beneficial relationship is sustained.

#### **3.4. Governance**

Proportionally, water crisis is the top most important issue among the top five (i.e., water crises, failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation, extreme weather events, food crises and profound social instability) global risks of the highest concern for the next 10 years [33]. Therefore, governance of water resources, especially in river basins, is critical towards achieving water security. Governance considers multi-level participation beyond the state and includes the private sector, civil society and society in general [40]. Orme et al. [41] propose the Good Transboundary Water Governance Matrix (**Figure 2**) as a key tool in water governance of shared water courses. This matrix incorporates the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and is also based on the United Nations Watercourses Convention [41]. According to Sadoff et al. [33], the fragility of basin communities can be heightened by failure of governments to preserve transboundary water resources, usually underpinned by weak institutions. Therefore, good water governance should include shared water courses [6], which will ameliorate any hydro-political tensions among basin states.

Sustainable transboundary water management is anchored upon substantive and procedural criteria ([41], Figure 2). The substantive criteria are circumscribed by three legal obligations. The "equitable and reasonable utilisation" criterion is the cornerstone of international water law and is the anchor for transboundary water governance, while the "duty not to cause significant harm" criterion refers to limiting pollution or over-exploitation, which might have a negative impact on the environment. The "protection and conservation of ecosystems" criterion is self-explanatory. The procedural criteria are anchored on four key obligations. The "notification and information exchange" criterion is implemented when parties notify others of planned developments that might negatively affect other users. The "environmental impact" criterion refers to a process of making informed developmental decisions based on a thorough analysis of anticipated environmental impacts. This criterion also provides a platform for community participation, which is also explicitly stated in the "public participation" criterion, and refers to the obligation to consult the public. When the "access to justice" criterion is upheld, then "information exchange and public participation rely on enforcement and review mechanisms to ensure efficacy and equity" [41]. Furthermore, this framework can create an enabling legislative environment that can reduce/minimise hydro-political tensions between the basin states, through by creating an enabling environment.

**3.2. Water quality**

**Index (m3**

46 Water and Sustainability

**3.3. Ecosystems**

**3.4. Governance**

River catchment degradation is a key issue of concern in contemporary river basin management in tropical systems. This degradation is driven by increasing population pressures, which place a heavy burden on natural resources [30]. Therefore, water quality management in river systems is critical towards controlling river pollution in which land use is a critical component of water quality in river basins [31]. The key land-use types that affect water quality in river basins are urban and agricultural activities, whose key indicators are elevated concentrations of bacteria, pesticides and nutrients [32]. Failure by governments to preserve water quality of

Wetlands are a key source of goods and services but are threatened by unsustainable use, both within wetlands and also in the upstream catchments [34]. They are biodiversity hotspots and foci of high biological production at the water-land interface [35] and are critical for biodiversity conservation [36]. Some key wetlands' resources include freshwater for human livelihoods, fish and flood protection [37]. Wetlands play an important role in river basins, while human activity within those river basins can have a negative impact on wetlands [36] usually driven by population growth [38], land-use change and climate change [10]. Because wetlands provide benefits to basins [39], there is a need to integrate their management into

Proportionally, water crisis is the top most important issue among the top five (i.e., water crises, failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation, extreme weather events, food crises and profound social instability) global risks of the highest concern for the next 10 years [33]. Therefore, governance of water resources, especially in river basins, is critical towards achieving water security. Governance considers multi-level participation beyond the state and includes the private sector, civil society and society in general [40]. Orme et al. [41] propose the Good Transboundary Water Governance Matrix (**Figure 2**) as a key tool in water governance of shared water courses. This matrix incorporates the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and is also based on the United Nations Watercourses Convention [41]. According to Sadoff et al. [33], the fragility of basin communities can be heightened by failure of governments to preserve transboundary water resources, usually underpinned

surface waters, especially in river basins, may enhance fragility of communities [33].

 **per capita) Category**

<500 Absolute scarcity

**Table 2.** Summary of *Falkenmark* categories used in the assessment of water scarcity in the ORB.

>1700 No stress 1000–1700 Stress 500–1000 Scarcity

basin management [36] to ensure that this beneficial relationship is sustained.

**Figure 2.** The Good Transboundary Water Governance Matrix reproduced from Orme et al. [41].

#### **3.5. Socio-economics**

The livelihoods of the majority of rural African populations are intertwined with water [6]. This is because water is the basic foundation of human livelihoods [26], and water scarcity can have a profoundly negative impact on economic growth [42]. According to UNEP-DHI and UNEP [43], the key components of the coupled human-environment system used in the assessment of river basins are "economic dependence on water resources, societal wellbeing and exposure to climate-related natural hazards". This suggests, therefore, that the observation of water being not only a key resource but also a limited resource in the ORB [9] makes it vulnerable to future population growth in the basin.

[51] was 1822 m. The mean area of water reached was 7 × 105

projection before calculations were done [52].

was 6 × 108

Mm<sup>3</sup>

a continuous colour gradient.

**4. Results and discussion**

**4.1. Water quantity**

133 Mm<sup>3</sup>

km<sup>2</sup>

. All required datasets were converted into Universal Transverse Mercator

Water, Ecosystem Dynamics and Human Livelihoods in the Okavango River Basin (ORB)…

Population projection data were taken from OKACOM [10], a shapefile was created and a heat map was created in ArcGIS Pro 2.0 [53] for data visualisation to show density points as

Water availability in the ORB is driven by a 30-year multi-decadal variability [5] driven primarily by natural variability [12]. The effect of this variability is more pronounced downstream [5]. This variability translates into years of high floods and years of low floods in the Okavango Delta [5]. Lake level variability in Lake Ngami (in the Okavango Delta) is a good illustration of this multi-decadal variability, where the lake has been more dry than wet between 1880 and 1993 [54, 55]. Therefore, any water developments in the Okavango Delta

less than 1% of the mean annual run-off (MAR). This estimate compares well with FAO [5],

socio-economic needs of an increasing population "are likely to result in greater development of the basin's water resources" [13]. OKACOM [10] revealed that 3428 Ha of land were under irrigation in the basin, while an estimated 490,000 Ha are planned for in Angola, at an

lation in the ORB was estimated at over 1.4 million livestock (i.e., cattle, goats, sheep, etc.), where 67% were in Botswana, of which 65% were cattle [10]. Therefore, the water resource of the ORB is currently underutilised, and water use can be expanded within the limits of the available development space [18]. The two major drivers of water demand in the basin are domestic, industrial and agricultural [16]. Overall, water demand in the ORB is expected to

in 2020 to 3871 Mm<sup>3</sup>

agriculture [10]. This demand is expected to increase in Angola and Namibia due to water

Water stress is "the ability, or lack thereof, to meet human and ecological demand for water" [56]. According to Gassert [57], the Okavango Basin users have low overall Baseline Water Stress Average Scores of 0.6 [0–5 low–high]. This indicator measures the ratio of total water annual withdrawals to the total available renewable supply, considering upstream uses and depletion of water, and therefore measures the underlying factors that drive water quantityrelated risks across basins and countries. Although the overall Okavango Basin's risk scores are much better than the Limpopo and Orange River Basins at 2.7 and 1.9, respectively, all three basins score similarly for interannual variability and flood occurrence. The low basin risk scores are consistent with the *Falkenmark* index (**Table 3**), which suggests that there is

. The ORB is a major source of water among the three basin states, and the growing

should account for this multi-decadal variability in water availability.

who estimated water abstraction in the basin at 90 Mm<sup>3</sup>

estimated water demand of 6400 Mm<sup>3</sup>

increase gradually to 1857.8 Mm<sup>3</sup>

shortages and increased agricultural demand [14].

Arntzen and Setlhogile [18] estimated water abstraction in the ORB at 100 Mm<sup>3</sup>

, and mean volume reached

49

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.80554

, which is

, while water use was estimated at

in 2025, driven mainly by irrigation

under future development scenarios. Livestock popu-

### **3.6. Economic analysis**

Water resources management initiatives at macro and micro levels are faced with positive transaction costs [44, 45]. The economic considerations of allocation, efficiency, equity, production and pollution have significant influence on water-related decision-making, water resources management and water policy formulation. However, because it assumes a world of zero transaction cost, neoclassical economics "is incapable of handling many of the problems to which it purports to give answers" [46]. There is, therefore, a need to develop, define and apply economic analyses that not only factor in the positive transaction costs involved in water resources management but also serve as a guiding tool for sustainable water resources management. Subsequent to the 1992 Dublin Conference on Water and Environment, water has widely been accepted as an economic good [47]. Regarding water as an economic good is vital for shifting the behaviour of water users towards efficiency [48]. It is also important for creating a basis for cost recovery related to water access, use and management [48, 49]. However, in defining water as an economic good, there is a need to appreciate the role of water as an environmental, ecological, social, financial and economic resource. A combination of these uses and the multi-sectoral use of water resources have stimulated the consideration that water is complex or "at least very special" [50] compared to other economic goods.

#### **3.7. GIS and remote sensing**

To calculate water volume in the basin, the digital elevation model was downloaded from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (Earth Observation Research Centre); http://www. eorc.jaxa.jp/ALOS/en/aw3d30/data/html\_v1804/s040e000\_s010e030.htm. This dataset has a resolution of approximately 30-meter mesh (1 × 1 arc second). Tiles were downloaded and mosaicked to the study extent (i.e., Botswana, Namibia and Angola). A clipping tool from ArcGIS desktop was used to clip each country to allow easy calculations for the water volume. The surface area tool within the ArcGIS 3D Analyst extension was used to calculate the area and volume of the region, the water surface and the terrain. In order to establish a reference height of the water along the channels of the Okavango Basin, shapefile data for maximum extent of open water for 1984–2015 by Pekel et al. [51] were downloaded, mosaicked, clipped to the basin extent and then converted to a polygon in ArcGIS for desktop. The water extent polygons were then used to extract height values from the digital elevation model. Whereas the original basin DEM had elevations ranging from 695 to 2278 m, the extracted water extent raster showed that the maximum water level reached in the 30-year period used by Pekel et al. [51] was 1822 m. The mean area of water reached was 7 × 105 km<sup>2</sup> , and mean volume reached was 6 × 108 Mm<sup>3</sup> . All required datasets were converted into Universal Transverse Mercator projection before calculations were done [52].

Population projection data were taken from OKACOM [10], a shapefile was created and a heat map was created in ArcGIS Pro 2.0 [53] for data visualisation to show density points as a continuous colour gradient.

### **4. Results and discussion**

#### **4.1. Water quantity**

**3.5. Socio-economics**

48 Water and Sustainability

**3.6. Economic analysis**

**3.7. GIS and remote sensing**

vulnerable to future population growth in the basin.

The livelihoods of the majority of rural African populations are intertwined with water [6]. This is because water is the basic foundation of human livelihoods [26], and water scarcity can have a profoundly negative impact on economic growth [42]. According to UNEP-DHI and UNEP [43], the key components of the coupled human-environment system used in the assessment of river basins are "economic dependence on water resources, societal wellbeing and exposure to climate-related natural hazards". This suggests, therefore, that the observation of water being not only a key resource but also a limited resource in the ORB [9] makes it

Water resources management initiatives at macro and micro levels are faced with positive transaction costs [44, 45]. The economic considerations of allocation, efficiency, equity, production and pollution have significant influence on water-related decision-making, water resources management and water policy formulation. However, because it assumes a world of zero transaction cost, neoclassical economics "is incapable of handling many of the problems to which it purports to give answers" [46]. There is, therefore, a need to develop, define and apply economic analyses that not only factor in the positive transaction costs involved in water resources management but also serve as a guiding tool for sustainable water resources management. Subsequent to the 1992 Dublin Conference on Water and Environment, water has widely been accepted as an economic good [47]. Regarding water as an economic good is vital for shifting the behaviour of water users towards efficiency [48]. It is also important for creating a basis for cost recovery related to water access, use and management [48, 49]. However, in defining water as an economic good, there is a need to appreciate the role of water as an environmental, ecological, social, financial and economic resource. A combination of these uses and the multi-sectoral use of water resources have stimulated the consideration that water is complex or "at least very special" [50] compared to other economic goods.

To calculate water volume in the basin, the digital elevation model was downloaded from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (Earth Observation Research Centre); http://www. eorc.jaxa.jp/ALOS/en/aw3d30/data/html\_v1804/s040e000\_s010e030.htm. This dataset has a resolution of approximately 30-meter mesh (1 × 1 arc second). Tiles were downloaded and mosaicked to the study extent (i.e., Botswana, Namibia and Angola). A clipping tool from ArcGIS desktop was used to clip each country to allow easy calculations for the water volume. The surface area tool within the ArcGIS 3D Analyst extension was used to calculate the area and volume of the region, the water surface and the terrain. In order to establish a reference height of the water along the channels of the Okavango Basin, shapefile data for maximum extent of open water for 1984–2015 by Pekel et al. [51] were downloaded, mosaicked, clipped to the basin extent and then converted to a polygon in ArcGIS for desktop. The water extent polygons were then used to extract height values from the digital elevation model. Whereas the original basin DEM had elevations ranging from 695 to 2278 m, the extracted water extent raster showed that the maximum water level reached in the 30-year period used by Pekel et al. Water availability in the ORB is driven by a 30-year multi-decadal variability [5] driven primarily by natural variability [12]. The effect of this variability is more pronounced downstream [5]. This variability translates into years of high floods and years of low floods in the Okavango Delta [5]. Lake level variability in Lake Ngami (in the Okavango Delta) is a good illustration of this multi-decadal variability, where the lake has been more dry than wet between 1880 and 1993 [54, 55]. Therefore, any water developments in the Okavango Delta should account for this multi-decadal variability in water availability.

Arntzen and Setlhogile [18] estimated water abstraction in the ORB at 100 Mm<sup>3</sup> , which is less than 1% of the mean annual run-off (MAR). This estimate compares well with FAO [5], who estimated water abstraction in the basin at 90 Mm<sup>3</sup> , while water use was estimated at 133 Mm<sup>3</sup> . The ORB is a major source of water among the three basin states, and the growing socio-economic needs of an increasing population "are likely to result in greater development of the basin's water resources" [13]. OKACOM [10] revealed that 3428 Ha of land were under irrigation in the basin, while an estimated 490,000 Ha are planned for in Angola, at an estimated water demand of 6400 Mm<sup>3</sup> under future development scenarios. Livestock population in the ORB was estimated at over 1.4 million livestock (i.e., cattle, goats, sheep, etc.), where 67% were in Botswana, of which 65% were cattle [10]. Therefore, the water resource of the ORB is currently underutilised, and water use can be expanded within the limits of the available development space [18]. The two major drivers of water demand in the basin are domestic, industrial and agricultural [16]. Overall, water demand in the ORB is expected to increase gradually to 1857.8 Mm<sup>3</sup> in 2020 to 3871 Mm<sup>3</sup> in 2025, driven mainly by irrigation agriculture [10]. This demand is expected to increase in Angola and Namibia due to water shortages and increased agricultural demand [14].

Water stress is "the ability, or lack thereof, to meet human and ecological demand for water" [56]. According to Gassert [57], the Okavango Basin users have low overall Baseline Water Stress Average Scores of 0.6 [0–5 low–high]. This indicator measures the ratio of total water annual withdrawals to the total available renewable supply, considering upstream uses and depletion of water, and therefore measures the underlying factors that drive water quantityrelated risks across basins and countries. Although the overall Okavango Basin's risk scores are much better than the Limpopo and Orange River Basins at 2.7 and 1.9, respectively, all three basins score similarly for interannual variability and flood occurrence. The low basin risk scores are consistent with the *Falkenmark* index (**Table 3**), which suggests that there is


dissolved oxygen (DO) ranged below the minimum of 2.4 mg/L DO as a result of decomposition from organic matter loadings, which resulted in annual fish kills at some parts of the delta [24]. pH levels in the delta are mostly within acceptable guidelines for aquatic life set by EPA and World Health Organisation (WHO), respectively (6.5–9.5 and 6.5–8.5). Few studies looked into major and trace elements and were generally within acceptable limits [63], except for beryllium and aluminium, which exceeded the Botswana Bureau of Standards (BOBS) for drinking water [64]. Although locally the effects of pollution are felt as a result of global stressors, these effects are negligible on the entire delta. Capitalising in good water quality and improved sanitation results in improved human health and economic productivity [65]. Generally, there is localised water pollution around human settlements in the basin [10].

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51

The ORB is internationally important due to its biodiversity and biological productivity [10]. It also contains the Okavango Delta, which is the world largest Ramsar site [4, 13], the world's second largest inland wetland [4] and a key World Heritage Site [66], with a high beta diversity [4]. Due to a low population density, OKACOM [10] revealed that about 90–95% of the basin's natural habitat remained intact. Pröpper et al. [22] also observed that the ORB remains in a "near natural state" due to low development in the basin, where 90% the basin is still covered by natural vegetation. Therefore, ecosystem integrity has remained largely intact because it has remained unaffected by human development due to its remoteness [15]. Therefore, there is high ecosystem connectivity in the ORB, which is a core indicator on transboundary river

While the ORB is a key source of various natural resources (e.g., firewood, reeds and fruits) for riparian communities, fish is a key source of livelihoods for the basin's communities [17]. According to Ramberg et al. [19], there are approximately 86 fish species in the basin. Fishing is practised on a small-scale commercial in Botswana [15, 67], while it is predominantly artisanal employing crude fishing gear in the rest of the basin [10, 15, 22, 23, 68]. Several studies in the Okavango Delta have shown that the delta's fish stocks are not yet over-exploited [69], where fishing behaviour [70] and fish community dynamics [71, 72] are driven primarily by seasonal flooding. A biodiversity survey in 2012 [23] revealed five previously undescribed fish species in the upper catchment of the ORB, while an earlier survey in 2003 [73] discovered an undescribed fish species in the delta. While earlier studies [19] estimated that there were 86 fish species in the ORB, these recent studies suggest that there are currently about 92 fish species in the system. These observations attest to the pristine status of the Okavango River

Despite its pristine status, 330 macro-invertebrate species are either vulnerable or near threatened, 10 fish species are red listed, 3 wetland bird species are considered vulnerable, while another 3 wetland bird species are near threatened in the basin. The common hippopotamus and the African elephant are also considered to be globally vulnerable, but not in the ORB [10] and certainly not in the delta, which have high elephant populations [10, 19]. In fact, the delta was found to be the most productive among several global wetlands due to the seasonal flood pulse [74]. Aquaculture is still at infantile stages in the basin, with small-scale operations in Angola and Namibia [10]. However, it is possible that some entrepreneurs in

**4.3. Ecosystem dynamics**

assessments as described by UNEP-HDI and UNEP [43].

system as observed by Todd et al. [4].

**Table 3.** Summary of the *Falkenmark* index for the ORB states.

no water stress in the basin. Munia et al. [2] also observed that there is no water stress in the ORB either to local or to upstream water uses. This is also in agreement with UNEP-DHI and UNEP [43] global transboundary assessment, which revealed that the ORB has a "very low risk" of transboundary human water stress. Global assessment projections to 2030 indicate no significant changes in human water stress in the basin [43].

An average of 23% of the total discharge in the ORB is needed by the environment to keep it in fair condition [29]. Therefore, this suggests that 2507 Mm<sup>3</sup> of discharge from a total discharge of 10,900 Mm<sup>3</sup> in the basin is needed for ecosystem functioning. Using the mean volume of water available in the basin over a 30-year period (1984–2015) suggests that environmental water needs for the ORB are approximately 1 × 108 Mm<sup>3</sup> . Taking into account water withdrawals, it follows that only about 24% of the discharge (or mean volume) in the ORB is utilised for both human use and ecosystem needs. About 76% of the water remains unutilised. Therefore, there is a room for water use expansion in the basin without any concerns of environmental water stress.

#### **4.2. Water quality**

Global studies emphasise the need to protect quality of freshwater rivers because they are few, and water demands are exacerbated by the global stressors such as climate change, population growth, industrialisation, economic growth and land-use activities [58]. For some river basins, deteriorating water quality might be as a result of lack of monitoring protocols aimed at protecting the integrity of the wetland in early stages of planning [36]. Therefore, it is critical to continuously monitor water quality in river ecosystems for sustainability of the wetland. The Okavango River water quality is relatively pristine [10, 22], which makes sense given the low human development impact in the basin. The basin's wetland vegetation is partially responsible for the waters' purity, while the substrate of the Kalahari sand also contributes significantly to water quality [10, 17]. Furthermore, wetlands are capable of removing nutrients from surface water resulting in freshwater [59].

Improved surface water quality status of the Okavango Delta is as a result of evapotranspiration and chemical precipitation [60]. Land-use activities such as mining, agriculture, industrialisation and settlements affect the quality of water [61], although slight effects were observed in Maun for pH, total nitrogen and dissolved oxygen [62]. Agricultural activities in the basin result in low nutrient enrichment because of minimal use of fertilisers, herbicides and pesticides. Generally, water quality studies show that waters are aerated and are within the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standards [62, 63]. However, there were times when dissolved oxygen (DO) ranged below the minimum of 2.4 mg/L DO as a result of decomposition from organic matter loadings, which resulted in annual fish kills at some parts of the delta [24]. pH levels in the delta are mostly within acceptable guidelines for aquatic life set by EPA and World Health Organisation (WHO), respectively (6.5–9.5 and 6.5–8.5). Few studies looked into major and trace elements and were generally within acceptable limits [63], except for beryllium and aluminium, which exceeded the Botswana Bureau of Standards (BOBS) for drinking water [64]. Although locally the effects of pollution are felt as a result of global stressors, these effects are negligible on the entire delta. Capitalising in good water quality and improved sanitation results in improved human health and economic productivity [65]. Generally, there is localised water pollution around human settlements in the basin [10].

#### **4.3. Ecosystem dynamics**

no water stress in the basin. Munia et al. [2] also observed that there is no water stress in the ORB either to local or to upstream water uses. This is also in agreement with UNEP-DHI and UNEP [43] global transboundary assessment, which revealed that the ORB has a "very low risk" of transboundary human water stress. Global assessment projections to 2030 indicate no

Angola 83.6 No stress Botswana 3.4 No stress Namibia 6.2 No stress Overall basin 1.8 No stress

An average of 23% of the total discharge in the ORB is needed by the environment to keep it in

available in the basin over a 30-year period (1984–2015) suggests that environmental water

Mm<sup>3</sup>

follows that only about 24% of the discharge (or mean volume) in the ORB is utilised for both human use and ecosystem needs. About 76% of the water remains unutilised. Therefore, there is a room for water use expansion in the basin without any concerns of environmental water stress.

Global studies emphasise the need to protect quality of freshwater rivers because they are few, and water demands are exacerbated by the global stressors such as climate change, population growth, industrialisation, economic growth and land-use activities [58]. For some river basins, deteriorating water quality might be as a result of lack of monitoring protocols aimed at protecting the integrity of the wetland in early stages of planning [36]. Therefore, it is critical to continuously monitor water quality in river ecosystems for sustainability of the wetland. The Okavango River water quality is relatively pristine [10, 22], which makes sense given the low human development impact in the basin. The basin's wetland vegetation is partially responsible for the waters' purity, while the substrate of the Kalahari sand also contributes significantly to water quality [10, 17]. Furthermore, wetlands are capable of removing

Improved surface water quality status of the Okavango Delta is as a result of evapotranspiration and chemical precipitation [60]. Land-use activities such as mining, agriculture, industrialisation and settlements affect the quality of water [61], although slight effects were observed in Maun for pH, total nitrogen and dissolved oxygen [62]. Agricultural activities in the basin result in low nutrient enrichment because of minimal use of fertilisers, herbicides and pesticides. Generally, water quality studies show that waters are aerated and are within the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standards [62, 63]. However, there were times when

in the basin is needed for ecosystem functioning. Using the mean volume of water

**) Category**

of discharge from a total discharge of

. Taking into account water withdrawals, it

significant changes in human water stress in the basin [43].

fair condition [29]. Therefore, this suggests that 2507 Mm<sup>3</sup>

nutrients from surface water resulting in freshwater [59].

needs for the ORB are approximately 1 × 108

**Country Index (×108**

**Table 3.** Summary of the *Falkenmark* index for the ORB states.

10,900 Mm<sup>3</sup>

50 Water and Sustainability

**4.2. Water quality**

The ORB is internationally important due to its biodiversity and biological productivity [10]. It also contains the Okavango Delta, which is the world largest Ramsar site [4, 13], the world's second largest inland wetland [4] and a key World Heritage Site [66], with a high beta diversity [4]. Due to a low population density, OKACOM [10] revealed that about 90–95% of the basin's natural habitat remained intact. Pröpper et al. [22] also observed that the ORB remains in a "near natural state" due to low development in the basin, where 90% the basin is still covered by natural vegetation. Therefore, ecosystem integrity has remained largely intact because it has remained unaffected by human development due to its remoteness [15]. Therefore, there is high ecosystem connectivity in the ORB, which is a core indicator on transboundary river assessments as described by UNEP-HDI and UNEP [43].

While the ORB is a key source of various natural resources (e.g., firewood, reeds and fruits) for riparian communities, fish is a key source of livelihoods for the basin's communities [17]. According to Ramberg et al. [19], there are approximately 86 fish species in the basin. Fishing is practised on a small-scale commercial in Botswana [15, 67], while it is predominantly artisanal employing crude fishing gear in the rest of the basin [10, 15, 22, 23, 68]. Several studies in the Okavango Delta have shown that the delta's fish stocks are not yet over-exploited [69], where fishing behaviour [70] and fish community dynamics [71, 72] are driven primarily by seasonal flooding. A biodiversity survey in 2012 [23] revealed five previously undescribed fish species in the upper catchment of the ORB, while an earlier survey in 2003 [73] discovered an undescribed fish species in the delta. While earlier studies [19] estimated that there were 86 fish species in the ORB, these recent studies suggest that there are currently about 92 fish species in the system. These observations attest to the pristine status of the Okavango River system as observed by Todd et al. [4].

Despite its pristine status, 330 macro-invertebrate species are either vulnerable or near threatened, 10 fish species are red listed, 3 wetland bird species are considered vulnerable, while another 3 wetland bird species are near threatened in the basin. The common hippopotamus and the African elephant are also considered to be globally vulnerable, but not in the ORB [10] and certainly not in the delta, which have high elephant populations [10, 19]. In fact, the delta was found to be the most productive among several global wetlands due to the seasonal flood pulse [74]. Aquaculture is still at infantile stages in the basin, with small-scale operations in Angola and Namibia [10]. However, it is possible that some entrepreneurs in the upper catchment might decide to farm Nile tilapia, which is fast growing and reaches big sizes, ostensibly to generate higher economic returns. This will have a negative impact on the ORB's ecosystem functioning.

**4.5. Social systems**

poverty" and Goal 13 on "climate action".

**4.6. Water economics and management in the ORB**

Factors such as emerging diverse demands for water resources, increasing population, increased urbanisation and rapid evolution of environmental and climatic problems pose future threats to the ORB. It has been projected that the current basin population will increase to about 1.3 million by 2025 [10]. This increase in population will add pressure to the natural water resources. The scarcity of and pressures on water resources in the basin will make

The total population in the ORB is approximately 900,000 over 195,000 households and a mean household size of 5. Angola has the smallest household size at 4, while Namibia has the largest household size at 6, and all these depend on the basin for their key livelihood activities [10]. Major livelihood activities in the ORB include subsistence agriculture, harvesting of natural resources, tourism and fishing [10, 15]. The predominant land use in the basin is subsistence agriculture characterised by arable agriculture and pastoral farming, where the largest livestock herds are found in Botswana and Namibia [10]. Flood recession agriculture is common in Botswana and Angola and is relatively more productive than dryland farming [9]. OKACOM [10] further posits that each country has invested in irrigated agriculture, where Namibia has the largest investment in irrigated land, while Angola has planned large future-scale irrigation schemes. Conversely, Botswana has limited irrigation schemes. Harvesting of natural resources includes fisheries, firewood, reeds and grasses, fruits wild foods and medicinal plants. Tourism, whose products are attributable to the wetland, is predominantly non-consumptive and of high value to Namibia and Botswana economies [15]. Aquaculture is yet to reach full potential in all the basin countries [84]. The ORB also contributes to livelihoods through provisioning services [10]. It is evident that most of the basin's communities derive direct use of the basin's resources [15] and that the ORB has a significant contribution to national economies [10]. Anticipated climate change impacts, which include changes in precipitation and temperature, will affect the basin's ecosystem and run-off, which would in turn disturb the availability, allocation and sharing of the ORB water resources [16, 85, 86]. This will inevitably affect the livelihoods of communities that are dependent on these resources. For example, anticipated changes such as loss of habitat, wildlife disruptions, increased wild fires as well as pests and disease vectors would affect the tourism industry [21]. In terms of agriculture, high temperatures will affect both arable and pastoral agriculture, which would force farmers to change the animal breeds and crop varieties [21]. Climate change effects will accentuate poverty in the basin, which is already widespread, and would subsequently increase the vulnerability of communities to socio-economic shocks. Therefore, there is a need to implement adaptation strategies at basin level in order to enhance community resilience. Inadequate basin-wide climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies are a big challenge, while at the same time, there is insufficient long-term policy formulation with respect to climate change adaptation, a common problem in all basin states [10, 83]. Transboundary water resources like the ORB should be protected from potential impacts, even though it is difficult to assess them due to uncertainty inherent in the General Circulation Models (GCMs). This will also fulfil the SDGs, particularly Goal 1 on "no

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#### **4.4. Governance**

Globally, about 145 states share an estimated 286 rivers and lakes and around 200 aquifers [75]. Transboundary freshwater resources are prone to international conflict, especially if not managed properly [76]. These conflicts include economically and verbally hostile actions, which are capable of raising tensions mainly when upstream and downstream interests clash [77]. The institutionalisation of transboundary water management principles can be traced to the Helsinki Rules on the Uses of International Rivers, which are a nonbinding code of conduct for states to follow [78]. They are credited with making the first effort at counter-hegemonic strategies by introducing equity criteria for shared use of international rivers [79]. This then formed the basic foundation for the SADC Protocol [80], which led to the establishment of OKACOM [81]. This agreement replaced the bilateral agreements that existed between the parties [82].

Therefore, OKACOM became a key institution in the basin critical towards management of conflicting interests over common water resources. It sets out rules of the game and mechanisms for the resolutions of potential conflicts. It addresses various issues related to sustainable development, especially on water security and sustainability. In terms of Article 1.4 of the OKACOM Agreement, the commission is an organ responsible for advising the contracting states on the criteria to be adopted for the equitable allocation and sustainable utilisation of water resources in the ORB. Therefore, the commission is obliged to apply principles of "equitable allocation and sustainable utilisation" or the Helsinki Rules [82]. There are, however, several transboundary challenges that OKACOM is faced with. These include lack of harmonisation of water quality standards; insufficient basin-wide cooperation, especially at the local level; and lack of a harmonised land-use planning framework among the basin states, which would facilitate integrated basin planning [10].

Therefore, OKACOM faces both political and structural challenges, which will affect its effectiveness and its ability to ensure that there is sustainable utilisation of the ORB water resources. This will imperil the future of water sustainability in the basin. Pröpper et al. [22] argue that OKACOM is weak and poorly funded, which perhaps attests to lack of political will among the basin states to ensure sustainability of this institution. It is perhaps due to this lack of political will that Pröpper et al. [22] observed that OKACOM recommendations are generally ignored in national decision making among the basin states. Moreover, this lack of effectiveness by OKACOM, underpinned by poor political will, makes the legislative environment unaccommodating to coherent and coordinated policies in the ORB. This observation conforms to Malzbender et al.'s [83] conclusion that there is insufficient integration of environmental policies in the ORB. Generally, this suggests that OKACOM is not fulfilling its mandate as a transboundary river basin management entity. Issues of water sustainability in the future are then potentially imperilled unless the basin states recognise OKACOM's relevance to water resources management in the basin.

#### **4.5. Social systems**

the upper catchment might decide to farm Nile tilapia, which is fast growing and reaches big sizes, ostensibly to generate higher economic returns. This will have a negative impact on the

Globally, about 145 states share an estimated 286 rivers and lakes and around 200 aquifers [75]. Transboundary freshwater resources are prone to international conflict, especially if not managed properly [76]. These conflicts include economically and verbally hostile actions, which are capable of raising tensions mainly when upstream and downstream interests clash [77]. The institutionalisation of transboundary water management principles can be traced to the Helsinki Rules on the Uses of International Rivers, which are a nonbinding code of conduct for states to follow [78]. They are credited with making the first effort at counter-hegemonic strategies by introducing equity criteria for shared use of international rivers [79]. This then formed the basic foundation for the SADC Protocol [80], which led to the establishment of OKACOM [81]. This agreement replaced the bilateral agreements that existed between the

Therefore, OKACOM became a key institution in the basin critical towards management of conflicting interests over common water resources. It sets out rules of the game and mechanisms for the resolutions of potential conflicts. It addresses various issues related to sustainable development, especially on water security and sustainability. In terms of Article 1.4 of the OKACOM Agreement, the commission is an organ responsible for advising the contracting states on the criteria to be adopted for the equitable allocation and sustainable utilisation of water resources in the ORB. Therefore, the commission is obliged to apply principles of "equitable allocation and sustainable utilisation" or the Helsinki Rules [82]. There are, however, several transboundary challenges that OKACOM is faced with. These include lack of harmonisation of water quality standards; insufficient basin-wide cooperation, especially at the local level; and lack of a harmonised land-use planning framework among the basin states,

Therefore, OKACOM faces both political and structural challenges, which will affect its effectiveness and its ability to ensure that there is sustainable utilisation of the ORB water resources. This will imperil the future of water sustainability in the basin. Pröpper et al. [22] argue that OKACOM is weak and poorly funded, which perhaps attests to lack of political will among the basin states to ensure sustainability of this institution. It is perhaps due to this lack of political will that Pröpper et al. [22] observed that OKACOM recommendations are generally ignored in national decision making among the basin states. Moreover, this lack of effectiveness by OKACOM, underpinned by poor political will, makes the legislative environment unaccommodating to coherent and coordinated policies in the ORB. This observation conforms to Malzbender et al.'s [83] conclusion that there is insufficient integration of environmental policies in the ORB. Generally, this suggests that OKACOM is not fulfilling its mandate as a transboundary river basin management entity. Issues of water sustainability in the future are then potentially imperilled unless the basin states recognise OKACOM's

which would facilitate integrated basin planning [10].

relevance to water resources management in the basin.

ORB's ecosystem functioning.

**4.4. Governance**

52 Water and Sustainability

parties [82].

The total population in the ORB is approximately 900,000 over 195,000 households and a mean household size of 5. Angola has the smallest household size at 4, while Namibia has the largest household size at 6, and all these depend on the basin for their key livelihood activities [10]. Major livelihood activities in the ORB include subsistence agriculture, harvesting of natural resources, tourism and fishing [10, 15]. The predominant land use in the basin is subsistence agriculture characterised by arable agriculture and pastoral farming, where the largest livestock herds are found in Botswana and Namibia [10]. Flood recession agriculture is common in Botswana and Angola and is relatively more productive than dryland farming [9]. OKACOM [10] further posits that each country has invested in irrigated agriculture, where Namibia has the largest investment in irrigated land, while Angola has planned large future-scale irrigation schemes. Conversely, Botswana has limited irrigation schemes. Harvesting of natural resources includes fisheries, firewood, reeds and grasses, fruits wild foods and medicinal plants. Tourism, whose products are attributable to the wetland, is predominantly non-consumptive and of high value to Namibia and Botswana economies [15]. Aquaculture is yet to reach full potential in all the basin countries [84]. The ORB also contributes to livelihoods through provisioning services [10].

It is evident that most of the basin's communities derive direct use of the basin's resources [15] and that the ORB has a significant contribution to national economies [10]. Anticipated climate change impacts, which include changes in precipitation and temperature, will affect the basin's ecosystem and run-off, which would in turn disturb the availability, allocation and sharing of the ORB water resources [16, 85, 86]. This will inevitably affect the livelihoods of communities that are dependent on these resources. For example, anticipated changes such as loss of habitat, wildlife disruptions, increased wild fires as well as pests and disease vectors would affect the tourism industry [21]. In terms of agriculture, high temperatures will affect both arable and pastoral agriculture, which would force farmers to change the animal breeds and crop varieties [21]. Climate change effects will accentuate poverty in the basin, which is already widespread, and would subsequently increase the vulnerability of communities to socio-economic shocks. Therefore, there is a need to implement adaptation strategies at basin level in order to enhance community resilience. Inadequate basin-wide climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies are a big challenge, while at the same time, there is insufficient long-term policy formulation with respect to climate change adaptation, a common problem in all basin states [10, 83]. Transboundary water resources like the ORB should be protected from potential impacts, even though it is difficult to assess them due to uncertainty inherent in the General Circulation Models (GCMs). This will also fulfil the SDGs, particularly Goal 1 on "no poverty" and Goal 13 on "climate action".

#### **4.6. Water economics and management in the ORB**

Factors such as emerging diverse demands for water resources, increasing population, increased urbanisation and rapid evolution of environmental and climatic problems pose future threats to the ORB. It has been projected that the current basin population will increase to about 1.3 million by 2025 [10]. This increase in population will add pressure to the natural water resources. The scarcity of and pressures on water resources in the basin will make the lower basin sharing states vulnerable. This creates interdependencies, which are often perceived as threats [77]. Within the basin, the nation states are faced with attaining a balance between ecosystem function and sustainable resource use by communities dependent on the water resources.

49–54% in 2050 and by 68–73% in 2080 [16]. However, Folwell and Farqhuarson [16] conclude that human abstractions will have a minimal impact on both dry and wet season flows. This agrees with OKACOM [10] that water for human abstraction will have a minimal impact on

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Generally, climate models consistently project an increase in temperatures over the ORB. The greatest increases in temperatures are associated with high emission scenarios used to force

water flows in the system based on future development scenarios.

**Figure 3.** Population growth in key settlements of the ORB.

Various modelling techniques for balancing human and ecological water resource needs have been developed [87, 88]. These techniques range from quantifying ecosystem services spatially, to tracing, quantifying and analysing the trade-offs between the ecosystem services. Theoretically, these techniques are needed to inform policy decisions for effective, efficient and secure water resources use and management. Hence, FAO [5] conducted a water audit for the ORB, while Arntzen and Sethogile [18] conducted a water allocation study for the basin, where the goal was to find the balance between human water requirements and ecosystem water needs.

According to FAO [5], a valuation of the Okavango Delta revealed that tourism has the highest direct use value in the delta, the highest contribution to the gross national production and the largest contributor to natural resource rent. Carbon sequestration and wildlife refuge were the largest contributor to indirect use value of the delta [5]. Furthermore, valuation results show that agriculture was less valuable than ecological services in the delta. Annually, the basin's natural resources contribute approximately US\$60 million to household income, over US\$100 million to the national economy in the form of gross national income and just over US\$234 million to the "broad economy in the form of gross national income, including the effect of the national income multiplier" [15]. The largest contributor of this value is tourism activities [5]. However, these economic benefits will reduce basin household income by 50% to approximately US\$30 at a low development scenario, to US\$10 million household income under a high development scenario [10]. These development scenarios are based on water use in the basin and would mostly involve dams in the upper catchment, which would reduce tourism activities in the lower basin.

One major challenge regarding economic value and benefit in the basin is that Angola is the largest contributor to discharge in the basin but benefits the least, while Botswana contributes the least discharge and derives the largest economic gain [10, 18]. This dichotomy in benefits sharing among basin states is a major transboundary management challenge. Another key challenge in the basin is that while non-consumptive tourism is the most valuable economic activity, agriculture is the biggest source of livelihoods for the majority of households in the basin [5, 18]. This makes water allocation in the basin a challenge. However, the absence of water stress in the basin makes the development space large enough for these activities to occur concurrently. There is a need, however, to intensify data collection in Angola and to enhance management of the water resources of the ORB. This will also provide enough data for development of econometric models as a part of a suite of economic-based models to aid in decision making of water allocation in the basin.

#### **4.7. Climate change**

Generally, the ORB is characterised by high inter-annual and multi-annual variability, which makes it resilient to climate variability [13]. GCM's predict increased temperature and decreased rainfall across the ORB with a consequent drop in dry and wet season flows by 49–54% in 2050 and by 68–73% in 2080 [16]. However, Folwell and Farqhuarson [16] conclude that human abstractions will have a minimal impact on both dry and wet season flows. This agrees with OKACOM [10] that water for human abstraction will have a minimal impact on water flows in the system based on future development scenarios.

the lower basin sharing states vulnerable. This creates interdependencies, which are often perceived as threats [77]. Within the basin, the nation states are faced with attaining a balance between ecosystem function and sustainable resource use by communities dependent on the

Various modelling techniques for balancing human and ecological water resource needs have been developed [87, 88]. These techniques range from quantifying ecosystem services spatially, to tracing, quantifying and analysing the trade-offs between the ecosystem services. Theoretically, these techniques are needed to inform policy decisions for effective, efficient and secure water resources use and management. Hence, FAO [5] conducted a water audit for the ORB, while Arntzen and Sethogile [18] conducted a water allocation study for the basin, where the goal was

According to FAO [5], a valuation of the Okavango Delta revealed that tourism has the highest direct use value in the delta, the highest contribution to the gross national production and the largest contributor to natural resource rent. Carbon sequestration and wildlife refuge were the largest contributor to indirect use value of the delta [5]. Furthermore, valuation results show that agriculture was less valuable than ecological services in the delta. Annually, the basin's natural resources contribute approximately US\$60 million to household income, over US\$100 million to the national economy in the form of gross national income and just over US\$234 million to the "broad economy in the form of gross national income, including the effect of the national income multiplier" [15]. The largest contributor of this value is tourism activities [5]. However, these economic benefits will reduce basin household income by 50% to approximately US\$30 at a low development scenario, to US\$10 million household income under a high development scenario [10]. These development scenarios are based on water use in the basin and would mostly involve dams in the upper catchment, which would reduce

One major challenge regarding economic value and benefit in the basin is that Angola is the largest contributor to discharge in the basin but benefits the least, while Botswana contributes the least discharge and derives the largest economic gain [10, 18]. This dichotomy in benefits sharing among basin states is a major transboundary management challenge. Another key challenge in the basin is that while non-consumptive tourism is the most valuable economic activity, agriculture is the biggest source of livelihoods for the majority of households in the basin [5, 18]. This makes water allocation in the basin a challenge. However, the absence of water stress in the basin makes the development space large enough for these activities to occur concurrently. There is a need, however, to intensify data collection in Angola and to enhance management of the water resources of the ORB. This will also provide enough data for development of econometric models as a part of a suite of economic-based models to aid

Generally, the ORB is characterised by high inter-annual and multi-annual variability, which makes it resilient to climate variability [13]. GCM's predict increased temperature and decreased rainfall across the ORB with a consequent drop in dry and wet season flows by

to find the balance between human water requirements and ecosystem water needs.

water resources.

54 Water and Sustainability

tourism activities in the lower basin.

in decision making of water allocation in the basin.

**4.7. Climate change**

Generally, climate models consistently project an increase in temperatures over the ORB. The greatest increases in temperatures are associated with high emission scenarios used to force

**Figure 3.** Population growth in key settlements of the ORB.

the models, while the lowest increases are associated with low emission scenarios. For rainfall, the models are inconsistent in projecting the direction of the change (some project wetter, while some project drier future conditions). These predict a negative rainfall change in the future, but the inconsistency in direction of change reduces confidence on the impact of climate change on the ORB. There may also be an increase in heat waves, prolonged dry spells, thunderstorms, localised flooding and damaging winds, which is consistent with other studies (e.g. [86, 89, 90]). The uncertainty in these models makes it difficult to assess the direction of impact, although there is general agreement that the upper basin will receive more rainfall, while the lower basin will receive less rainfall and will experience increased temperatures [18].

ORB and to ensure that water sustainability is achieved in the basin. Upstream developments, especially dams in these areas, will affect not only water flow dynamics in the entire basin but also sedimentation in the system. However, development pressures in Angola, where 62% of the population is expected to reside by 2025, are realities that need to be addressed within a configured OKACOM. Pröpper et al. [22] argue that multiple uses of ecosystem services in the ORB (e.g., agriculture, fish, water supply, etc.) will possibly result in over-utilisation and commodification with unknown consequences on the ecosystem. Invariably, this may affect

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Yang's et al. [92] six major water management strategies for the Texas State Water Plan can also be applied to the ORB to enhance water resources management in the basin and hence increase water sustainability. These include "water conservation, surface water development, groundwater development, re-use, desalination and conjunctive use" [92]. Similar to the Texas situation, it is envisaged that implementing some of these management strategies in the river basin will in the long term alleviate pressure on surface water resources, especially for uses other than ecosystem needs. Ultimately, this will release more water for ecosystem functioning. Some of these strategies, especially re-use and water conservation, can be codified into law to ensure that they become part of water governance in the ORB. Moreover, OKACOM should be the key driver of this envisaged policy formulation among the basin states. There is no harmonised policy framework in the ORB that deals with water legislation among the basin states [83].This is a major weakness of the OKACOM policy framework because this suggests that there is potentially lack of coordination in water resources management among

The water allocation problem for ecosystem needs on one hand and for human livelihoods on the other hand will increasingly become more of a political issue than an economic activity in future [3]. This observation is premised on the fact that increasing population size in the ORB will undoubtedly place more pressure on water resources in the basin, and basin states will increasingly be faced with the political pressures of providing services to their populations, at the expense of ecosystem needs. Currently, however, Pröpper et al. [22] observe that economic pressures among the ORB states are currently the key drivers of water resources management policies. Nonetheless, the basic question then remains, how do we achieve water sustainability in the ORB as we move into the future? Currently, OKACOM is ill equipped to deal with these political questions that underpin water use and allocation in the basin, in the face of the inevitable increasing population pressures. What implementable and practical

measures have been implemented in the basin states to deal with these future threats?

Water is the basic foundation of the SDGs and is hence the key determinant of their successes [42]. There is a need to ensure that the water resources of the ORB are used sustainably, through finding a balance between ecosystem needs and human livelihoods. This will ensure that the basin states achieve the SDGs. Future major potential threats on the basin's water resources are issues related to water quality and habitat fragmentation caused by dam construction in the upper catchment. While these future development scenarios will cause an overall reduction in ORB household income, this will be related primarily to loss of tourism activities in the delta. Therefore, OKACOM needs to create a decision support system (DSS)

the basin states, which might result in unsustainable water use.

water sustainability in the basin.

#### **4.8. Population growth**

**Figure 3** shows that there is a relatively higher population density at Menongue and Kavango in 2010 than at Cangamba and Dirico. Population projections for 2025 (**Figure 3**) show that there will not be a major change in population density in the other basin's urban areas, while there will be a negligible increase in population density in Maun. However, this observation is inconsistent with OKACOM [10], which shows that Angola has the highest population growth rate (2.7%) compared to Botswana (0.9%) and Namibia (1%). Furthermore, Angola has the highest fertility rate among the basin states [10]. However, Botswana has the lowest death rate and infant mortality rate among the basin states [10], which may account for an overall negligible increase in Maun population compared to the other urban areas in Angola and Namibia.

### **5. Synthesis and conclusion**

The livelihoods of most of sub-Saharan Africa's rural poor are closely intertwined with water [6], which make water security and water-related issues the most pressing global concerns in the next 10 years [33]. Subsequently, water sustainability becomes a core issue of concern in river basins of developing countries, where future population pressures will conceivably increase water stress in these systems. Lack of preparation to this reality and poor water resources management within this context will invariably lead to fragility, which might trigger simmering tensions among and between the communities [33]. Moreover, comprehensive water resources management is critical towards achieving water security in developing countries. According to Sadoff et al. [33], failure to achieve water security usually occurs through failure by governments to (i) provide its citizens with basic water services, (ii) provide citizens from water-related disasters and (iii) preserve surface, ground and transboundary water resources. Population-driven development pressures will become more of a concern in Angola than downstream states.

Due to low development in the ORB, most of the water needs in the basin is used for ecosystem purposes [91]. Hence, currently, there is no competition for water between human needs and ecosystem requirements. Therefore, this suggests that current consumptive water needs in the system, compared to environmental needs, provide baseline conditions upon which future needs can be assessed against. Clearly, there is a need to conserve the catchment of the Cubango and Cuatir Rivers in the west and the Cuito and Longa Rivers in the east of the ORB and to ensure that water sustainability is achieved in the basin. Upstream developments, especially dams in these areas, will affect not only water flow dynamics in the entire basin but also sedimentation in the system. However, development pressures in Angola, where 62% of the population is expected to reside by 2025, are realities that need to be addressed within a configured OKACOM. Pröpper et al. [22] argue that multiple uses of ecosystem services in the ORB (e.g., agriculture, fish, water supply, etc.) will possibly result in over-utilisation and commodification with unknown consequences on the ecosystem. Invariably, this may affect water sustainability in the basin.

the models, while the lowest increases are associated with low emission scenarios. For rainfall, the models are inconsistent in projecting the direction of the change (some project wetter, while some project drier future conditions). These predict a negative rainfall change in the future, but the inconsistency in direction of change reduces confidence on the impact of climate change on the ORB. There may also be an increase in heat waves, prolonged dry spells, thunderstorms, localised flooding and damaging winds, which is consistent with other studies (e.g. [86, 89, 90]). The uncertainty in these models makes it difficult to assess the direction of impact, although there is general agreement that the upper basin will receive more rainfall, while the lower basin will receive less rainfall and will experience increased temperatures [18].

**Figure 3** shows that there is a relatively higher population density at Menongue and Kavango in 2010 than at Cangamba and Dirico. Population projections for 2025 (**Figure 3**) show that there will not be a major change in population density in the other basin's urban areas, while there will be a negligible increase in population density in Maun. However, this observation is inconsistent with OKACOM [10], which shows that Angola has the highest population growth rate (2.7%) compared to Botswana (0.9%) and Namibia (1%). Furthermore, Angola has the highest fertility rate among the basin states [10]. However, Botswana has the lowest death rate and infant mortality rate among the basin states [10], which may account for an overall negligible increase in Maun population compared to the other urban areas in Angola and Namibia.

The livelihoods of most of sub-Saharan Africa's rural poor are closely intertwined with water [6], which make water security and water-related issues the most pressing global concerns in the next 10 years [33]. Subsequently, water sustainability becomes a core issue of concern in river basins of developing countries, where future population pressures will conceivably increase water stress in these systems. Lack of preparation to this reality and poor water resources management within this context will invariably lead to fragility, which might trigger simmering tensions among and between the communities [33]. Moreover, comprehensive water resources management is critical towards achieving water security in developing countries. According to Sadoff et al. [33], failure to achieve water security usually occurs through failure by governments to (i) provide its citizens with basic water services, (ii) provide citizens from water-related disasters and (iii) preserve surface, ground and transboundary water resources. Population-driven development pressures will become more of a concern in Angola than downstream states.

Due to low development in the ORB, most of the water needs in the basin is used for ecosystem purposes [91]. Hence, currently, there is no competition for water between human needs and ecosystem requirements. Therefore, this suggests that current consumptive water needs in the system, compared to environmental needs, provide baseline conditions upon which future needs can be assessed against. Clearly, there is a need to conserve the catchment of the Cubango and Cuatir Rivers in the west and the Cuito and Longa Rivers in the east of the

**4.8. Population growth**

56 Water and Sustainability

**5. Synthesis and conclusion**

Yang's et al. [92] six major water management strategies for the Texas State Water Plan can also be applied to the ORB to enhance water resources management in the basin and hence increase water sustainability. These include "water conservation, surface water development, groundwater development, re-use, desalination and conjunctive use" [92]. Similar to the Texas situation, it is envisaged that implementing some of these management strategies in the river basin will in the long term alleviate pressure on surface water resources, especially for uses other than ecosystem needs. Ultimately, this will release more water for ecosystem functioning. Some of these strategies, especially re-use and water conservation, can be codified into law to ensure that they become part of water governance in the ORB. Moreover, OKACOM should be the key driver of this envisaged policy formulation among the basin states. There is no harmonised policy framework in the ORB that deals with water legislation among the basin states [83].This is a major weakness of the OKACOM policy framework because this suggests that there is potentially lack of coordination in water resources management among the basin states, which might result in unsustainable water use.

The water allocation problem for ecosystem needs on one hand and for human livelihoods on the other hand will increasingly become more of a political issue than an economic activity in future [3]. This observation is premised on the fact that increasing population size in the ORB will undoubtedly place more pressure on water resources in the basin, and basin states will increasingly be faced with the political pressures of providing services to their populations, at the expense of ecosystem needs. Currently, however, Pröpper et al. [22] observe that economic pressures among the ORB states are currently the key drivers of water resources management policies. Nonetheless, the basic question then remains, how do we achieve water sustainability in the ORB as we move into the future? Currently, OKACOM is ill equipped to deal with these political questions that underpin water use and allocation in the basin, in the face of the inevitable increasing population pressures. What implementable and practical measures have been implemented in the basin states to deal with these future threats?

Water is the basic foundation of the SDGs and is hence the key determinant of their successes [42]. There is a need to ensure that the water resources of the ORB are used sustainably, through finding a balance between ecosystem needs and human livelihoods. This will ensure that the basin states achieve the SDGs. Future major potential threats on the basin's water resources are issues related to water quality and habitat fragmentation caused by dam construction in the upper catchment. While these future development scenarios will cause an overall reduction in ORB household income, this will be related primarily to loss of tourism activities in the delta. Therefore, OKACOM needs to create a decision support system (DSS) to facilitate benefit sharing in the basin. Hopefully, this will assist the basin states to find the balance between ecosystem dynamics and human livelihoods, which will reduce or eliminate competition for water requirements. This will contribute to water sustainability in the ORB.

[9] Weinzier T, Schilling J. On demand, development and dependence: A review of current and future implications of socioeconomic changes for integrated water resource man-

Water, Ecosystem Dynamics and Human Livelihoods in the Okavango River Basin (ORB)…

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Ketlhatlogile Mosepele1 \*, Wame L. Hambira1 , Goemeone E.J. Mogomotsi2 , Patricia K. Mogomotsi1 , Oliver Moses1 , Masego Dhliwayo1 , Anastacia Makati1 and Bernice Setomba1


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**Chapter 5**

**Provisional chapter**

**Sustainability of Irrigation in Uzbekistan: Implications**

**Sustainability of Irrigation in Uzbekistan: Implications** 

This chapter focuses on a discussion of how global efforts to align local irrigation management with the good governance principles affect the lives of the rural poor, specifically women. Drawing in empirical data collected in post-soviet Uzbekistan, I illuminate unexpected effects of an apparently well-intended irrigation project on those categories of farmers whose connections to state apparatus of agricultural commerce of cotton were weak. Using fieldwork data from a village largely affected by desiccation of Aral Sea, I describe the everyday struggles by these people, who are mostly women, engage to make their living and provide subsistence to their families in situation of economic trauma, environmental disaster, and massive outmigration of male population. This analysis puts forward the local voices of real people whose lives are being restructured by sustainability oriented actions. Such perspective is often missed in scholarly and professional literature. These findings are hoped to assist policy developers in formulating irrigation programs in ways that would embrace sustainability both in terms of environmental and social justice.

This chapter focuses on a discussion of how global efforts to align national irrigation management with the good governance principles affect the lives of the rural poor, specifically women. Drawing in empirical data collected in post-soviet Uzbekistan, I illuminate unexpected effects of an apparently well-intended project aimed at establishing sustainable water practices on those categories of farmers whose connections to state apparatus of agricultural commerce of cotton were weak. Using fieldwork data from a village largely affected by desiccation of

**Keywords:** irrigation, gender, women farmers, sustainability, Aral Sea

© 2016 The Author(s). Licensee InTech. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

© 2018 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,

distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.79732

**for Women Farmers**

**for Women Farmers**

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.79732

Elena Kim

Elena Kim

**Abstract**

**1. Introduction**


#### **Sustainability of Irrigation in Uzbekistan: Implications for Women Farmers Sustainability of Irrigation in Uzbekistan: Implications for Women Farmers**

DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.79732

#### Elena Kim Elena Kim

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10.1080/02508060903114673

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64 Water and Sustainability

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.79732

#### **Abstract**

This chapter focuses on a discussion of how global efforts to align local irrigation management with the good governance principles affect the lives of the rural poor, specifically women. Drawing in empirical data collected in post-soviet Uzbekistan, I illuminate unexpected effects of an apparently well-intended irrigation project on those categories of farmers whose connections to state apparatus of agricultural commerce of cotton were weak. Using fieldwork data from a village largely affected by desiccation of Aral Sea, I describe the everyday struggles by these people, who are mostly women, engage to make their living and provide subsistence to their families in situation of economic trauma, environmental disaster, and massive outmigration of male population. This analysis puts forward the local voices of real people whose lives are being restructured by sustainability oriented actions. Such perspective is often missed in scholarly and professional literature. These findings are hoped to assist policy developers in formulating irrigation programs in ways that would embrace sustainability both in terms of environmental and social justice.

**Keywords:** irrigation, gender, women farmers, sustainability, Aral Sea

#### **1. Introduction**

This chapter focuses on a discussion of how global efforts to align national irrigation management with the good governance principles affect the lives of the rural poor, specifically women. Drawing in empirical data collected in post-soviet Uzbekistan, I illuminate unexpected effects of an apparently well-intended project aimed at establishing sustainable water practices on those categories of farmers whose connections to state apparatus of agricultural commerce of cotton were weak. Using fieldwork data from a village largely affected by desiccation of

© 2016 The Author(s). Licensee InTech. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2018 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Aral Sea, I describe the everyday struggles these people, who are mostly women, engage to make their living and provide subsistence to their families in situation of economic trauma, environmental disaster, and massive out-migration of male population. This analysis puts forward the local voices of real people whose lives are being restructured by sustainability oriented actions. Such perspective is often missed in scholarly and professional literature. These findings are hoped to assist policy developers in formulating irrigation programs in ways that would embrace sustainability both in terms of environmental and social justice.

by Moscow were now disrupted and resulted in shortfall of grain. Dissolution of collective farms led to massive unemployment and livelihood insecurity among the population, especially in the rural areas [2]. The Uzbek government responded to the shortages by expanding the acreage of land devoted to wheat production and increased the size of private plots that population became entitled to [2]. The agrarian reform oscillated between increasing access to private land, structural reform agenda imposed by international donors, and measures to tighten and restrict private access to land in an effort to control the production of cotton [2]. Agrarian reforms transformed collective farms to collective enterprises, then, again, restructured them as joint-stock companies and, lastly, established private enterprises such as independent farms [7]. The private farms were made distinct from peasant farms in that they had a legal status, had a leasehold of up to 50 years, had a minimum of 10 hectares for cotton and wheat, and their land use was restricted to specific agricultural activities as specified in the lease contracts [2]. The peasant farms had optional legal status, had a life-long inheritable tenure, could only use family members and relatives as labor, had a maximum size up to 1 ha, and might use their land for any agricultural activities. The private farms were the subject to a mandatory system of production quotas and state orders on production of cotton and wheat [6]. Prices were fixed by the government-controlled agencies and well below the market prices. The state used a system of contracting private farmers, whereby they became bound to continue to plant a certain acreage of cotton [2]. Should they fail to supply the expected amount, the producers were subject to punitive measures such as revoking their leases. In return, producers were supplied with rationing of inputs such as land, water, equipment, etc. As Kandiyoti [2] argued, this was an attempt of the government to pass on the production risks to the independent farmers, while maintaining the state control over the procurement of strategic crops such

Sustainability of Irrigation in Uzbekistan: Implications for Women Farmers

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67

as cotton and wheat. The small holders endured no state demands aside from land tax.

that farms were to be managed by men was becoming a fact.

sale or barter of produce [2].

As in Kandiyoti [2], Uzbekistan's agrarian reform systematically disadvantaged women. For example, when the members of collective farms were redefined as shareholders, women received much smaller shares than men because those were distributed on the basis of the length of service and final salaries. Women, most of them were unskilled workers with shorter working years and frequent maternity leaves fared considerable less than men. The notion

The importance of land for sustaining rural livelihoods also underwent changes. In contrast to the Soviet period, where individual holding did not play a significant role, in sovereign Uzbekistan, subsistence and informal income from individual crop cultivation became central to families surviving strategies [8]. When waged employment became permanently deficit, state benefits became irregular and curtailed, reliance on households and subsidiary plots for self-subsistence increased substantially, and rural households turned to self-provisioning and

In contemporary Uzbekistan, agriculture accounts to 30% of GPD, 60% of foreign exchange receipts, and about 40% of employment [9]. Private farms carry on producing cotton for the state international commerce and make Uzbekistan now the world's fourth largest producer of cotton [10]. This happens despite the fact that the Uzbekistan currently suffers a serious water shortage [10]. The country continues to use the same irrigation sources and infrastructure, mainly from Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers, which feed the landlocked Aral Sea which
