6. Conclusions

The forecast values of the politic-geographical sustainability index for 2025 show a significant improvement in the situation in almost all Arctic regions, except Nenets Autonomous Okrug and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, for which the situation will remain unchanged. Positive values of the index are also predicted for the Murmansk Oblast and Arkhangelsk Oblast, and the most impressive breakthrough is predicted for the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia): from 0.43 to 0.05. These changes are associated with positive dynamics according to the

Considering the totality of all the stability indexes obtained, and calculating on their basis the comprehensive index value of the stability of the Arctic regions, it obtains that at the moment among all the regions of the Russian Arctic, the leaders are the Murmansk Oblast, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and Nenets Autonomous Okrug, with the values of the complex index in the limit of 0.06–0.09, which is associated with sufficiently high and stable situation for most indexes (Figure 6). The most unstable situation is registered in the Republic of Karelia, Krasnoyarsk Krai, and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), for which the values of the comprehensive index value of the stability range from

In the forecast of the situation for 2025, based on the strategies of socioeconomic development of the Arctic regions, the situation is slightly improving in the Western regions (Murmansk Oblast, the Republic of Karelia, and Arkhangelsk Oblast), which more correctly took into account the weaknesses of the regions in strategies and plans to improve the socioeconomic situation in general (Figure 7). At the same time, the Murmansk Oblast will remain the only one that is predicted to

forecasts of indicators of migration and of regional subsidy.

0.12 to 0.15.

94 Sustainability Assessment and Reporting

Figure 6. Comprehensive index of stability, 2016.

As a result of the research, five indicator groups for different factors of sustainability for the assessment of coastal systems and coastal infrastructure are obtained. This includes methods of their calculation on the basis of the analysis of system principles of sustainability of coastal systems and accounting of medium- and long-term climatic, ecological, economic, legal, and geopolitical changes in the Arctic, from the point of spatial planning and development of coastal territorial systems. On the basis of this methodology, a dynamic model of strategic spatial planning of the Russian Arctic regions and the integrated geographic information system of coastal systems and coastal infrastructure of the Russian Arctic "AZRF Coastal Systems," including the regional component of GIS, were created.

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BF01191650

According to the calculation and analysis, at the moment among all the regions of the Russian Arctic, the leaders are the Murmansk Oblast, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and Nenets Autonomous Okrug, which is associated with sufficiently high and stable situation for most indexes. The most unstable situation is registered in the Republic of Karelia, Krasnoyarsk Krai, and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). In the forecast of the situation for 2025, based on the strategies of socioeconomic development of the Arctic regions, the situation is slightly improving in the Western regions (Murmansk Oblast, the Republic of Karelia, and Arkhangelsk Oblast), which more correctly took into account the weaknesses of the regions in strategies and plans to improve the socioeconomic situation in general. At the same time, the Murmansk Oblast will remain the only one that is predicted to have a positive value of the comprehensive index value of the stability. The forecast situation in Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and Krasnoyarsk Krai will deteriorate the most, and the Krasnoyarsk Krai is projected as an absolute outsider in terms of sustainability of development among all Arctic regions of the Russian Arctic. These situations signal the socioeconomic development priorities that are often incorrectly chosen by the Arctic regions and require adjustment of the strategies of the socioeconomic development of the Arctic regions and their coordination with the directions of the socioeconomic development of the Russian Federation.

Due to the calculations performed, the applicability of this model is shown not only to assess the current state of the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation but also to predict their development on the basis of scenario forecast.
