4. Dynamic model of strategic spatial planning of maritime activities of the regions of the Russian Arctic on the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the sustainability of coastal systems and coastal infrastructure

Group of indicators of the sociodemographic sustainability factors (index of sociodemographic

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The volume and variability of the development and use of resources is determined by the socioeconomic needs of society. The Russian Arctic is characterized by extreme unevenness of resource use which depends on natural and social factors. Highlighting the enlarged areas of the development of coastal Arctic complexes, this group takes into account factors such as the level of development of the gas-oil and mining industry, the industry of biological resources, the value of cargo turnover of port facilities, the level of development of the manufacturing industry, the level of tourist importance, and the level of development of transport infrastruc-

Group of indicators of resource sustainability factors (index of resource sustainability) includes

The importance of the environmental group of sustainability factors of coastal systems and the relevant coastal infrastructure is due to the fact that the geographical environment, being a complex unique formation, has a strong impact on the development and preservation of the environment. This group takes into account factors such as the square-protected natural areas of the region, the level of air pollution and waste water emissions, the value of environmental

Group of indicators of environmental sustainability factors (index of environmental sustain-

sustainability) includes

• indicator of labor resources;

• indicator of unemployment;

• indicator of Gini index.

ture.

4.3. Resource sustainability factors

• indicator of population growth;

• indicator of educational and health facilities;

• indicator of gas-oil and mining resources;

• indicator of cargo turnover of port facilities;

• indicator of transport infrastructure development;

costs, and the level of morbidity of the population.

• the indicator of manufacturing industry;

• indicator of marine bio-resources;

• indicator of tourist significance.

ability) includes

4.4. Environmental sustainability factors

• indicator of the amount of wages and the subsistence wages;

Dynamic model of strategic spatial planning of maritime activities in the regions of the Russian Arctic on the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the sustainability of coastal systems and coastal infrastructure is a dynamic information system for processing spatial information for short-, medium-, and long-term forecasting of economic activities taking into account climatic, environmental, economic, legal, and geopolitical changes.

The dynamic model is based on the indicator approach, the methodology of which is described in part 3.

To take into account medium- and long-term climate, environmental, economic, legal, and geopolitical changes in the Arctic in assessing the sustainability of coastal systems and the relevant coastal infrastructure of the regional level of management, it is proposed to use a comprehensive indicator system consisting of five-factor subsystems:

### 4.1. Common economic sustainability factors

This group of factors takes into account the level of common economic development of the region, including such factors as the gross regional product (GRP), the amount of attracted investments, the level of foreign economic activity, the economic growth, and industrial production growth values.

Group of indicators of the common economic sustainability factors (index of common economic sustainability) includes:


#### 4.2. Sociodemographic sustainability factors

The importance of the sociodemographic characteristic is determined primarily by the possibility of assessing the prospects for the development of the coastal system and infrastructure in terms of the availability and the use of labor resources and social comfort of living. This group is the determining basis for the development of coastal Arctic systems, and, as a consequence, takes into account factors such as the labor resources, population growth, unemployment level, education and health facilities, the level of wages, and the Gini index.

Group of indicators of the sociodemographic sustainability factors (index of sociodemographic sustainability) includes

• indicator of labor resources;

4. Dynamic model of strategic spatial planning of maritime activities of the regions of the Russian Arctic on the basis of a comprehensive analysis of

Dynamic model of strategic spatial planning of maritime activities in the regions of the Russian Arctic on the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the sustainability of coastal systems and coastal infrastructure is a dynamic information system for processing spatial information for short-, medium-, and long-term forecasting of economic activities taking into account climatic,

The dynamic model is based on the indicator approach, the methodology of which is described

To take into account medium- and long-term climate, environmental, economic, legal, and geopolitical changes in the Arctic in assessing the sustainability of coastal systems and the relevant coastal infrastructure of the regional level of management, it is proposed to use a

This group of factors takes into account the level of common economic development of the region, including such factors as the gross regional product (GRP), the amount of attracted investments, the level of foreign economic activity, the economic growth, and industrial pro-

Group of indicators of the common economic sustainability factors (index of common eco-

The importance of the sociodemographic characteristic is determined primarily by the possibility of assessing the prospects for the development of the coastal system and infrastructure in terms of the availability and the use of labor resources and social comfort of living. This group is the determining basis for the development of coastal Arctic systems, and, as a consequence, takes into account factors such as the labor resources, population growth, unemployment

level, education and health facilities, the level of wages, and the Gini index.

the sustainability of coastal systems and coastal infrastructure

environmental, economic, legal, and geopolitical changes.

4.1. Common economic sustainability factors

duction growth values.

nomic sustainability) includes:

• indicator of gross regional product;

• indicator of attracted investments;

• indicator of economic growth;

• indicator of foreign-economic activity;

• indicator of industrial production growth.

4.2. Sociodemographic sustainability factors

comprehensive indicator system consisting of five-factor subsystems:

in part 3.

86 Sustainability Assessment and Reporting


#### 4.3. Resource sustainability factors

The volume and variability of the development and use of resources is determined by the socioeconomic needs of society. The Russian Arctic is characterized by extreme unevenness of resource use which depends on natural and social factors. Highlighting the enlarged areas of the development of coastal Arctic complexes, this group takes into account factors such as the level of development of the gas-oil and mining industry, the industry of biological resources, the value of cargo turnover of port facilities, the level of development of the manufacturing industry, the level of tourist importance, and the level of development of transport infrastructure.

Group of indicators of resource sustainability factors (index of resource sustainability) includes


#### 4.4. Environmental sustainability factors

The importance of the environmental group of sustainability factors of coastal systems and the relevant coastal infrastructure is due to the fact that the geographical environment, being a complex unique formation, has a strong impact on the development and preservation of the environment. This group takes into account factors such as the square-protected natural areas of the region, the level of air pollution and waste water emissions, the value of environmental costs, and the level of morbidity of the population.

Group of indicators of environmental sustainability factors (index of environmental sustainability) includes


### 4.5. Politic-geographical sustainability factors

The essence of this group of factors, which is a part of political regionalism, is the study of spatial (territorial) organization of political life of society and sociopolitical (politic-geographical) systems, their internal structure in the socioeconomic space of the Russian Arctic, taking into account the comfort of human habitation. This group takes into account factors such as the degree of domestic political stability in the region, the level of migration, the level of coastal concentration of population, the level of regional subsidy, and the level of crime in the region.

• values of sustainability factor indexes and comprehensive index of sustainability of

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• forecast values of sustainability factor indexes and comprehensive index of sustainability of coastal systems and coastal infrastructure for 2025, according to the strategies of

At the same time, it should be noted that the boundaries of each Russian Arctic Subject were determined according to the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation. According to these definitions, for the Republic of Karelia, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Krasnoyarsk Krai and Sakha (Yakutia) Republic, the partial (several local municipalities) territorial belonging to these Subjects of the Russian Federation into the Russian Arctic was taken into consideration when

Indicators and index values were obtained and visualized by using GIS "AZRF Coastal

Analysis of the current situation on the index of common economic sustainability showed that the Republic of Karelia is in the worst position of all Arctic regions (the index value is 0.30), which is associated with low economic growth, low investment attraction, and low level of the gross regional product (Figure 1). The leader in terms of common economic stability is Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (index value 0.74), which is caused by the high level of the gross regional product, industrial production growth, and a large volume of attracted

socioeconomic development of the Arctic Subjects of the Russian Federation.

coastal systems and coastal infrastructure for 2016;

calculating indicators and indexes.

Figure 1. Index of common economic sustainability, 2016.

Systems."

Group of indicators of politic-geographical sustainability factors (index of politic-geographical sustainability) includes


According to the presented methodology (part 3), the comprehensive index value of the sustainability of coastal systems and the relevant coastal infrastructure for Russian Arctic regions are calculated as a medium of five indexes of sustainability.
