5. Estimation of the comprehensive value of the sustainability of coastal systems and the relevant coastal infrastructure of the coastal Arctic regions

According to the presented methodology, the dynamic model of strategic spatial planning of the regions of the Russian Arctic was developed based on a comprehensive analysis of the sustainability of coastal systems and coastal infrastructure. For calculation of the indicator values were used official information of Federal Ministries and Agencies, including statistical offices and Governments of the coastal Subjects of the Russian Federation.

In particular, for each Subject of the Russian Arctic, the following were calculated and obtained:

• values of the indicators for each of the reduced factors of stability;

• values of sustainability factor indexes and comprehensive index of sustainability of coastal systems and coastal infrastructure for 2016;

• protected area indicator; • indicator of air pollution;

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• indicator of morbidity.

sustainability) includes

• indicator of crime.

• indicator of migration;

• indicator of regional subsidy;

• indicator of sewage pollution;

• indicator of the cost of environmental protection;

The essence of this group of factors, which is a part of political regionalism, is the study of spatial (territorial) organization of political life of society and sociopolitical (politic-geographical) systems, their internal structure in the socioeconomic space of the Russian Arctic, taking into account the comfort of human habitation. This group takes into account factors such as the degree of domestic political stability in the region, the level of migration, the level of coastal concentration of population, the level of regional subsidy, and the level of crime in the region.

Group of indicators of politic-geographical sustainability factors (index of politic-geographical

According to the presented methodology (part 3), the comprehensive index value of the sustainability of coastal systems and the relevant coastal infrastructure for Russian Arctic regions are

5. Estimation of the comprehensive value of the sustainability of coastal systems and the relevant coastal infrastructure of the coastal Arctic regions

According to the presented methodology, the dynamic model of strategic spatial planning of the regions of the Russian Arctic was developed based on a comprehensive analysis of the sustainability of coastal systems and coastal infrastructure. For calculation of the indicator values were used official information of Federal Ministries and Agencies, including statistical

In particular, for each Subject of the Russian Arctic, the following were calculated and obtained:

offices and Governments of the coastal Subjects of the Russian Federation.

• values of the indicators for each of the reduced factors of stability;

4.5. Politic-geographical sustainability factors

• indicator of domestic political stability;

• indicator of coastal concentration of population;

calculated as a medium of five indexes of sustainability.

• forecast values of sustainability factor indexes and comprehensive index of sustainability of coastal systems and coastal infrastructure for 2025, according to the strategies of socioeconomic development of the Arctic Subjects of the Russian Federation.

At the same time, it should be noted that the boundaries of each Russian Arctic Subject were determined according to the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation. According to these definitions, for the Republic of Karelia, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Krasnoyarsk Krai and Sakha (Yakutia) Republic, the partial (several local municipalities) territorial belonging to these Subjects of the Russian Federation into the Russian Arctic was taken into consideration when calculating indicators and indexes.

Indicators and index values were obtained and visualized by using GIS "AZRF Coastal Systems."

Analysis of the current situation on the index of common economic sustainability showed that the Republic of Karelia is in the worst position of all Arctic regions (the index value is 0.30), which is associated with low economic growth, low investment attraction, and low level of the gross regional product (Figure 1). The leader in terms of common economic stability is Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (index value 0.74), which is caused by the high level of the gross regional product, industrial production growth, and a large volume of attracted

Figure 1. Index of common economic sustainability, 2016.

investments. Interestingly, only the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) has all the positive values of indicators.

positive for all Arctic regions, and the indicator of population growth has negative values only

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By 2025, in all regions of the Russian Arctic, according to their strategies of the socioeconomic development, the current situation in the Western Arctic regions is projected to continue and the current situation in the Eastern Arctic regions will become worse, most likely due to the underestimation of the possibilities of socioeconomic development. The worsening of the situation in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), for which the index value is projected to decrease from 0.21 (one of the leaders in 2016) to 0.05 (the worst situation in the Russian Arctic), is especially planned. Thus, the wage indicator values will be positive only in Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, in all regions except the Republic of Karelia, a significant decrease in the

The current situation in the resource economic sector demonstrates a rather difficult situation in all regions of the Russian Arctic, with the lowest values of the corresponding index in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) (index value 0.54), and in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Krasnoyarsk Krai and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, the index values do not exceed 0.45 (Figure 3). This situation is connected with the sharp one-sided development of the resource potential of the regions, including a small turnover of port facilities, a low level of the manufacturing industry, and the infrastructure. More positive is the resource sustainability in the Western regions of the Russian Arctic, led by the Murmansk Oblast, for which the value of the resource sustainability index is 0.31, with maximum values of indicators of marine

for the Arkhangelsk Oblast and the Republic of Karelia.

unemployment indicator values is predicted.

Figure 3. Index of resource sustainability, 2016.

Forecast for the development of the situation on the common economic sustainability for 2025 was analyzed by the basis of the strategies of socioeconomic development of regions of the Russian Arctic. In comparison with the current situation, not all Arctic regions were able to correctly project the development of economic stability. For example, for the Arkhangelsk Oblast, the index is projected to decline to 0.39, from 0.18 in 2016, and for the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug to 0.17 from 0.72. First of all, this is due to the low forecasts for the size of attracted investments, and economic and industrial growth. Also, a serious projected decline was revealed for the Krasnoyarsk Krai: from 0.19 to 0.32. The leading position on this indicator will be the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia).

Index of sociodemographic sustainability in 2016 shows the most stable position in Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, with the index values of 0.39, achieved due to the positive values of all indicators except the Gini index in Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (Figure 2). The high values of the index in the Murmansk Oblast (0.23) and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) (0.21) are due to the stability of the regions in all respects, except for the unemployment rate, the values of which are quite high in these Arctic regions. Other regions of the Russian Arctic have lower indices of the sociodemographic sustainability index. It is interesting that the values of the indicator of educational and health facilities are

Figure 2. Index of sociodemographic sustainability, 2016.

positive for all Arctic regions, and the indicator of population growth has negative values only for the Arkhangelsk Oblast and the Republic of Karelia.

By 2025, in all regions of the Russian Arctic, according to their strategies of the socioeconomic development, the current situation in the Western Arctic regions is projected to continue and the current situation in the Eastern Arctic regions will become worse, most likely due to the underestimation of the possibilities of socioeconomic development. The worsening of the situation in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), for which the index value is projected to decrease from 0.21 (one of the leaders in 2016) to 0.05 (the worst situation in the Russian Arctic), is especially planned. Thus, the wage indicator values will be positive only in Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, in all regions except the Republic of Karelia, a significant decrease in the unemployment indicator values is predicted.

The current situation in the resource economic sector demonstrates a rather difficult situation in all regions of the Russian Arctic, with the lowest values of the corresponding index in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) (index value 0.54), and in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Krasnoyarsk Krai and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, the index values do not exceed 0.45 (Figure 3). This situation is connected with the sharp one-sided development of the resource potential of the regions, including a small turnover of port facilities, a low level of the manufacturing industry, and the infrastructure. More positive is the resource sustainability in the Western regions of the Russian Arctic, led by the Murmansk Oblast, for which the value of the resource sustainability index is 0.31, with maximum values of indicators of marine

Figure 3. Index of resource sustainability, 2016.

investments. Interestingly, only the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) has all the positive values of

Forecast for the development of the situation on the common economic sustainability for 2025 was analyzed by the basis of the strategies of socioeconomic development of regions of the Russian Arctic. In comparison with the current situation, not all Arctic regions were able to correctly project the development of economic stability. For example, for the Arkhangelsk Oblast, the index is projected to decline to 0.39, from 0.18 in 2016, and for the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug to 0.17 from 0.72. First of all, this is due to the low forecasts for the size of attracted investments, and economic and industrial growth. Also, a serious projected decline was revealed for the Krasnoyarsk Krai: from 0.19 to 0.32. The leading position on this

Index of sociodemographic sustainability in 2016 shows the most stable position in Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, with the index values of 0.39, achieved due to the positive values of all indicators except the Gini index in Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (Figure 2). The high values of the index in the Murmansk Oblast (0.23) and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) (0.21) are due to the stability of the regions in all respects, except for the unemployment rate, the values of which are quite high in these Arctic regions. Other regions of the Russian Arctic have lower indices of the sociodemographic sustainability index. It is interesting that the values of the indicator of educational and health facilities are

indicators.

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indicator will be the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia).

Figure 2. Index of sociodemographic sustainability, 2016.

bio-resources and cargo turnover of port facilities of the region. The indicator of infrastructure development is positive only for the Arkhangelsk region.

• the indicator of the protected area is positive only for the Krasnoyarsk Krai and Chukotka

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Interestingly, the Nenets Autonomous district is characterized by a low value of the indicator

Predicting using the analysis of strategies of the socioeconomic development of the regions of the Russian Arctic environmental sustainability index values for 2025, it is necessary to state the preservation of the current situation in general, and even its slight deterioration, for example, for the Murmansk Oblast and the Arkhangelsk Oblast, a slight improvement of the environmental

The politic-geographical sustainability index, which reflects the comfort of living of the population of the region depending on the administrative policy of the region, for the current situation showed that the least comfortable living in the Republic of Karelia (the index value is 0.69) is associated with a high level of regional subsidy, the level of crime (crime indicator less 0.5), and unstable political situation (the indicator of domestic political stability is less 0.43). On the contrary, the highest and positive index value was registered for Nenets Autonomous Okrug only—just above zero, 0.05 (Figure 5). This region, along with the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, has not regional subsidy from the federal budget, and only this region is characterized by the positive value of the migration indicator. It should be noted that for the Republic of Karelia

sustainability index is projected only for the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

and the Krasnoyarsk Krai, all the values of indicators of this index are negative.

Autonomous Okrug.

of the costs of environmental protection.

Figure 5. Index of politic-geographical sustainability, 2016.

According to the forecasts of the strategies of the socioeconomic development of the Arctic regions, the situation in the regions in terms of resource sustainability index will remain at the same level. Significant growth of the index is projected only for Chukotka, with growth of values of 0.45 to 0.15 (due to the forecast for the development of the manufacturing industry in the region), and Arkhangelsk Oblast with the growth of index values of 0.15 to 0.34, through the development of port activity, growth of manufacturing industry, and the tourist significance in the region.

Examining the current situation in the regions on the environmental sustainability index draws attention to the generally negative situation throughout the Russian Arctic (Figure 4). For example, in the Arkhangelsk Oblast, the index value is 0.40, in the Murmansk Oblast, it is 0.38. Against the background of these results, Krasnoyarsk Krai looks best with a positive index value close to 0.

The following indicators have the greatest impact on the environmental sustainability index:


Figure 4. Index of environmental sustainability, 2016.

• the indicator of the protected area is positive only for the Krasnoyarsk Krai and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug.

bio-resources and cargo turnover of port facilities of the region. The indicator of infrastructure

According to the forecasts of the strategies of the socioeconomic development of the Arctic regions, the situation in the regions in terms of resource sustainability index will remain at the same level. Significant growth of the index is projected only for Chukotka, with growth of values of 0.45 to 0.15 (due to the forecast for the development of the manufacturing industry in the region), and Arkhangelsk Oblast with the growth of index values of 0.15 to 0.34, through the development of

Examining the current situation in the regions on the environmental sustainability index draws attention to the generally negative situation throughout the Russian Arctic (Figure 4). For example, in the Arkhangelsk Oblast, the index value is 0.40, in the Murmansk Oblast, it is 0.38. Against the background of these results, Krasnoyarsk Krai looks best with a positive

The following indicators have the greatest impact on the environmental sustainability index:

• sewage pollution indicator is positive only for Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Yamalo-

• air pollution indicator is negative for all Arctic regions except the Republic of Karelia;

Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug;

port activity, growth of manufacturing industry, and the tourist significance in the region.

development is positive only for the Arkhangelsk region.

index value close to 0.

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Figure 4. Index of environmental sustainability, 2016.

Interestingly, the Nenets Autonomous district is characterized by a low value of the indicator of the costs of environmental protection.

Predicting using the analysis of strategies of the socioeconomic development of the regions of the Russian Arctic environmental sustainability index values for 2025, it is necessary to state the preservation of the current situation in general, and even its slight deterioration, for example, for the Murmansk Oblast and the Arkhangelsk Oblast, a slight improvement of the environmental sustainability index is projected only for the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

The politic-geographical sustainability index, which reflects the comfort of living of the population of the region depending on the administrative policy of the region, for the current situation showed that the least comfortable living in the Republic of Karelia (the index value is 0.69) is associated with a high level of regional subsidy, the level of crime (crime indicator less 0.5), and unstable political situation (the indicator of domestic political stability is less 0.43). On the contrary, the highest and positive index value was registered for Nenets Autonomous Okrug only—just above zero, 0.05 (Figure 5). This region, along with the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, has not regional subsidy from the federal budget, and only this region is characterized by the positive value of the migration indicator. It should be noted that for the Republic of Karelia and the Krasnoyarsk Krai, all the values of indicators of this index are negative.

Figure 5. Index of politic-geographical sustainability, 2016.

The forecast values of the politic-geographical sustainability index for 2025 show a significant improvement in the situation in almost all Arctic regions, except Nenets Autonomous Okrug and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, for which the situation will remain unchanged. Positive values of the index are also predicted for the Murmansk Oblast and Arkhangelsk Oblast, and the most impressive breakthrough is predicted for the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia): from 0.43 to 0.05. These changes are associated with positive dynamics according to the forecasts of indicators of migration and of regional subsidy.

Considering the totality of all the stability indexes obtained, and calculating on their basis the comprehensive index value of the stability of the Arctic regions, it obtains that at the moment among all the regions of the Russian Arctic, the leaders are the Murmansk Oblast, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and Nenets Autonomous Okrug, with the values of the complex index in the limit of 0.06–0.09, which is associated with sufficiently high and stable situation for most indexes (Figure 6). The most unstable situation is registered in the Republic of Karelia, Krasnoyarsk Krai, and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), for which the values of the comprehensive index value of the stability range from 0.12 to 0.15.

In the forecast of the situation for 2025, based on the strategies of socioeconomic development of the Arctic regions, the situation is slightly improving in the Western regions (Murmansk Oblast, the Republic of Karelia, and Arkhangelsk Oblast), which more correctly took into account the weaknesses of the regions in strategies and plans to improve the socioeconomic situation in general (Figure 7). At the same time, the Murmansk Oblast will remain the only one that is predicted to

> have a positive value of the comprehensive index value of the stability (0.11). The forecast situation in Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (with a decline of the value of the comprehensive index value of the stability from 0.7 to 0.04) and Krasnoyarsk Krai (with a decline of the value of the comprehensive index value of the stability from 0.12 to 0.20) will deteriorate the most. At the same time, the Krasnoyarsk Krai is projected as an absolute outsider in terms of sustainability of

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This current and prediction situation signals the socioeconomic development priorities that are often incorrectly chosen by the Arctic regions and requires adjustment of the strategies of the socioeconomic development of the Arctic regions and their coordination with the directions of

As a result of the research, five indicator groups for different factors of sustainability for the assessment of coastal systems and coastal infrastructure are obtained. This includes methods of their calculation on the basis of the analysis of system principles of sustainability of coastal systems and accounting of medium- and long-term climatic, ecological, economic, legal, and geopolitical changes in the Arctic, from the point of spatial planning and development of coastal territorial systems. On the basis of this methodology, a dynamic model of strategic spatial planning of the Russian Arctic regions and the integrated geographic information

development among all Arctic regions of the Russian Arctic.

Figure 7. Forecast of comprehensive index of stability, 2025.

the socioeconomic development of the Russian Federation.

6. Conclusions

Figure 6. Comprehensive index of stability, 2016.

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Figure 7. Forecast of comprehensive index of stability, 2025.

have a positive value of the comprehensive index value of the stability (0.11). The forecast situation in Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (with a decline of the value of the comprehensive index value of the stability from 0.7 to 0.04) and Krasnoyarsk Krai (with a decline of the value of the comprehensive index value of the stability from 0.12 to 0.20) will deteriorate the most. At the same time, the Krasnoyarsk Krai is projected as an absolute outsider in terms of sustainability of development among all Arctic regions of the Russian Arctic.

This current and prediction situation signals the socioeconomic development priorities that are often incorrectly chosen by the Arctic regions and requires adjustment of the strategies of the socioeconomic development of the Arctic regions and their coordination with the directions of the socioeconomic development of the Russian Federation.
