**3. Results and discussion**

The study area is located in flood prone area. Every year flood caused huge economic loss due to direct damages in agricultural sector, housing sector, and infrastructure sector. Flood inundation has the potential to cause human fatalities, displacement of people, and environmental damage putting pressures on country's economy and economic development [22].

Flood is the abnormal behavior of river flow which results in the breaching of embankments and inundates the low-lying areas on both sides of the river. Heavy rainfall in summer season in the upstream areas together with meltwater (melting of snow and glaciers) increases discharge in the river and generate flood. The Chenab river has been showing such abnormal behavior, and in the 80 years many times its flow has crossed the magnitude of 20,000 m<sup>3</sup> /s (**Figure 3**).

#### **3.1. 2014 flood event**

respectively. The temperature gains momentum from March onward and attains its maximum peak in May (40°C) and June (42°C). In July and August, the temperature falls due to monsoon

The main activity of the people in the study area is agriculture because of the availability of fertile soil deposited by the river and water for irrigation through canals from the same river. The main cultivated crops are rice, sugarcane, maize, cotton, fodder, and beans. The local residents are earning their livelihood from agriculture. In most of the target area, houses

rainfall.

**Figure 1.** Location of the study area. Source: authors.

78 Natural Hazards - Risk Assessment and Vulnerability Reduction

**Figure 2.** Mean monthly temperature and rainfall. Source: [21].

In the first week of September 2014, unprecedented rainfall was recorded in Kashmir, Gilgit Baltistan, and many other parts of Pakistan, which has resulted heavy floods in Neelum river at Muzaffarabad, Hunza river at Gilgit, Chenab river at Marala and Jhelum river at Mangla. Parallel to this high discharge, India has also released 5600 m<sup>3</sup> /s in Chenab river, which has

**Figure 3.** Peak discharge at Khanki Headwork's, Alexandra Headwork's, and Qadirabad Headwork's (1925–2014). Source: [21].

brought devastating flood in the floodplain of Chenab. As a consequence, it has incurred 185 human losses and approximately 40,000 km2 cropped land was inundated. During field survey, it was found that on 6th September high floods was reported in the upper part of Punjab especially in the districts of Jhelum, Gujrat, and Sialkot, and in the lower Indus plain, the severely affected districts were Jhang and Muzaffargarh Punjab province comprising vast plain areas, therefore, the flood inundated the adjacent areas.

The discharge in normal flood condition remains less than 2800 m<sup>3</sup> /s, whereas above 17,000 m<sup>3</sup> /s are exceptionally high flood. In the year 2014, peak discharge in river Chenab at Marala was 15,300 m<sup>3</sup> /s, at Qadirabad 16,000 m<sup>3</sup> /s, and at Khanki above 18,000 m<sup>3</sup> /s. Therefore, based on the PMD defined criteria, this flood was declared as high flood in Chenab basin after the disastrous flood in 1992.

The spatial extent of flood was variable in the selected reach of the river. The spatial extent of flood was demarcated on the map on both sides of the river on the bases of community perception. The maximum extent was 20 km, whereas the minimum extent was 10 km in the upper Indus plain (**Figure 4**). Similarly, the depth of flood was also spatially variable. The maximum depth (5 m) was found in district Jhang located in the lower reach of the study area. The extent and depth of flood has caused severe damages to standing crops, livestock, houses, and infrastructure.

The 2014 flood has affected most of the social and economic sectors including community physical infrastructure, housing, agriculture, and flood combating system. Community physical infrastructure sector was the leading affected sector (39.09%) with estimated economic damage of 0.17 billion US\$, followed by housing sector (28.67%) with estimated rehabilitation cost of 0.13 billion US\$. The standing crops were also severely affected by floodwater with estimated economic loss of 0.11 billion US\$ (**Table 2**).

especially the standing crops of cotton, rice, and sugarcane were ready to harvest but the spatial extent floodwater into the crops left no choice for farmers rather than to protect their lives. According to an estimation of National Disaster Management (NDMA), the standing

**Sectors Damages (PKR billion) Damages (US\$ billion) Damages (in percentage)**

Physical infrastructure 17.16 0.17 39.09 Housing 12.59 0.13 28.67 Agriculture 10.91 0.112 25.20 Livelihoods 11.14 0.03 6.24 Flood combating system 0.35 0.003 0.80 **Total 52.15 0.445 100**

Damages to standing crops not only affected the farmer's livelihood but also have negative consequences on overall agricultural production. The 2014 flood has caused reduction in crop production particularly in rice around 0.217 million ton, in sugarcane 0.726 million tons, and

damages were reported in the districts of Jhang, Muzaffargarh, Multan, and Sargodha.

area were inundated by flood and damaged it completely. Extensive

Extent of 2014 Flood Damages in Chenab Basin Upper Indus Plain

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81

crops on about 4000 km2

**Table 2.** Sectors wise flood damages.

Source [23].

**Figure 4.** Spatial extent of 2014 flood. Source: authors.

#### **3.2. Extent of damages**

The study area is fertile agricultural land and canals are the main source of irrigation. Agriculture is the leading affected sector after infrastructure and housing. During flood,

**Figure 4.** Spatial extent of 2014 flood. Source: authors.

brought devastating flood in the floodplain of Chenab. As a consequence, it has incurred

**Figure 3.** Peak discharge at Khanki Headwork's, Alexandra Headwork's, and Qadirabad Headwork's (1925–2014).

survey, it was found that on 6th September high floods was reported in the upper part of Punjab especially in the districts of Jhelum, Gujrat, and Sialkot, and in the lower Indus plain, the severely affected districts were Jhang and Muzaffargarh Punjab province comprising vast

based on the PMD defined criteria, this flood was declared as high flood in Chenab basin after

The spatial extent of flood was variable in the selected reach of the river. The spatial extent of flood was demarcated on the map on both sides of the river on the bases of community perception. The maximum extent was 20 km, whereas the minimum extent was 10 km in the upper Indus plain (**Figure 4**). Similarly, the depth of flood was also spatially variable. The maximum depth (5 m) was found in district Jhang located in the lower reach of the study area. The extent and depth of flood has caused severe damages to standing crops, livestock,

The 2014 flood has affected most of the social and economic sectors including community physical infrastructure, housing, agriculture, and flood combating system. Community physical infrastructure sector was the leading affected sector (39.09%) with estimated economic damage of 0.17 billion US\$, followed by housing sector (28.67%) with estimated rehabilitation cost of 0.13 billion US\$. The standing crops were also severely affected by floodwater with

The study area is fertile agricultural land and canals are the main source of irrigation. Agriculture is the leading affected sector after infrastructure and housing. During flood,

/s are exceptionally high flood. In the year 2014, peak discharge in river Chenab at

/s, and at Khanki above 18,000 m<sup>3</sup>

cropped land was inundated. During field

/s, whereas above

/s. Therefore,

185 human losses and approximately 40,000 km2

80 Natural Hazards - Risk Assessment and Vulnerability Reduction

17,000 m<sup>3</sup>

Source: [21].

Marala was 15,300 m<sup>3</sup>

the disastrous flood in 1992.

houses, and infrastructure.

**3.2. Extent of damages**

plain areas, therefore, the flood inundated the adjacent areas.

estimated economic loss of 0.11 billion US\$ (**Table 2**).

The discharge in normal flood condition remains less than 2800 m<sup>3</sup>

/s, at Qadirabad 16,000 m<sup>3</sup>


**Table 2.** Sectors wise flood damages.

especially the standing crops of cotton, rice, and sugarcane were ready to harvest but the spatial extent floodwater into the crops left no choice for farmers rather than to protect their lives. According to an estimation of National Disaster Management (NDMA), the standing crops on about 4000 km2 area were inundated by flood and damaged it completely. Extensive damages were reported in the districts of Jhang, Muzaffargarh, Multan, and Sargodha.

Damages to standing crops not only affected the farmer's livelihood but also have negative consequences on overall agricultural production. The 2014 flood has caused reduction in crop production particularly in rice around 0.217 million ton, in sugarcane 0.726 million tons, and 0.25 bales of cotton were lost. Beside this, seed stocks were lost, agricultural tools and equipment got damaged, irrigation channels were breached by flood or blocked by siltation and land erosion over some places further caused damages to land and standing crops affecting the agricultural sector [18].

risk management system is highly required in order to reduce exposure and vulnerability by capacity building. In this regard, expansion of structural and nonstructural mitigation measures is vital to enhance the efficiency of the flood risk management system. Flood hazard and risk zonation are also extremely important to identify high risk areas. Similarly, flood forecasting and early warning system are also required to be enhanced by increasing the

Extent of 2014 Flood Damages in Chenab Basin Upper Indus Plain

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This is a time for disaster management authorities to rethink and plan again on sustainable way to protect human life and property by strengthening the flood combating system. Flood

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[2] Ali A. Indus basin floods: Mechanisms, impacts, and management. Mandaluyong City,

[3] Arslan M, Tauseef M, Gull M, Baqir M, Ahmad I. Unusual rainfall shift during monsoon period of 2010 in Pakistan: Flash flooding in northern Pakistan and riverine flooding in

[4] Rahman A, Khan AN. Analysis of flood causes and associated socio-economic damages in the Hindukush region. Natural Hazards. 2011;**59**(3):1239-1260. DOI: 10.1007/

[5] Collins MJ, Kirk JP, Pettit J, DeGaetano AT, McCown MS, Peterson TC, Zhang X. Annual floods in New England (USA) and Atlantic Canada: synoptic climatology and generating

[6] Douben KJ. Characteristics of river floods and flooding: A global overview, 1985-2003.

[7] Houze R a, Rasmussen KL, Medina S, Brodzik SR, Romatschke U.Anomalous atmospheric events leading to the summer 2010 flood in Pakistan. Bulletin of the American Meteoro-

[8] Hussain MS, Lee S. Long-term variability and changes of the precipitation regime in

Pakistan. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. 2014;**50**(3):271-282

risk zonation is very important to highlight the high risk areas.

\*Address all correspondence to: shakeelmahmoodkhan@gmail.com

Department of Geography, Government College University, Lahore, Pakistan

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Philippines: Asian Development Bank. 2013

weather radar network.

**Author details**

**References**

Shakeel Mahmood\* and Razia Rani

s11069-011-9830-8

Livestock is one of the important components of agricultural sector, considered as a secondary source of earning livelihood, and also fulfills the needs of food and nutrition of households. Significant losses of livestock were also observed due to the floods. In the study region, about 2000 of livestock were lost in the upstream areas, whereas buffalos (303), cows (256), and goats (381) were lost in low-lying areas in upper Indus plain.

In the study area, 2014 flood has also damaged the housing sector. The total number of completely damaged houses was higher than the partially damaged houses. According to the estimate of PDMA, approximately 9872 houses were completely damaged and 2894 houses were partially damaged. The damaged houses were higher in the districts of Jhang followed by Chinot.

Analysis reveals that most of the houses in the flood zone were made of (mud) non-resilient material. Flood surge has damaged directly the houses and its content, while the duration of floodwater has further intensified the impact of floodwater on houses. This is a time for disaster management authorities to rethink and plan again on sustainable way to protect human life and property by strengthening the flood combating system. Flood risk zonation is very important to highlight the high risk areas.
