**3. Projected climate change and existing vulnerabilities**

#### **3.1. Projected changes in temperature and rainfall for Namibia**

**Kunene region Zambezi region**

92 Natural Hazards - Risk Assessment and Vulnerability Reduction

• One of the smallest regions in the country

total Namibian population [30, 31].

summer rainfall' [30, 32].

90,000 people live in this region, about 4% of the

• Have 'a fertile wilderness of riverine forests, flood plains, swamps and open woodland created by a complex network of rivers and relatively high

• The average rainfall in Zambezi is about 700 mm and this makes it the wettest region in the country. • People in this region are subsistence farmers, mostly fisheries who make their living on the river bank of the Zambezi, Kwando, Linyanti and

• Possess 17 registered conservancies (21% of all registered conservancies in the country) [25].

• Tourist attractions include the transboundary riv-

• The conservancies in the region benefits from the high number of tourists that frequent the area. • Popa Game Park and Bwabwata National Park are opposite to each other and have similar species of birds and animals. Furthermore, Bwabwata is a home to more than '35 large game species, including elephant, buffalo, impala, reedbuck, red lechwe, sitatunga, hippo, giraffe, zebra, and wildebeest' [33]. There are 400 recorded bird's species including 'kingfishers, herons, cormorants, African skimmers, wattled cranes, pygmy geese and African fish-eagles' [33]. All these ecosystems and their biodiversity beauty make Zambezi region an outstanding tourism destination [30, 33]. • High tourism potential in the region has attracted both domestic and international tour operators in the area who have established accommodation

• The conservancies in the region benefits from the high number of tourists that frequent the area.

ers, unique culture and craft of people.

) with a his population density of over

(14,785 km<sup>2</sup>

Chobe rivers.

facilities.

**Table 1.** Description of the regional profiles for the Kunene and Zambezi regions in Namibia.

• Hosts Skeleton Coast Park as its entire western boundary with the

• Home to 86,856 inhabitants, representing 4% of the Namibian popu-

• Home to OvaHimba and Damara Ethnic groups of Namibia.

• Rainfall in this region increases from north-west to north-east ranging from less than 50 to 400 mm,

• Possess 36 registered conservancies (44% of all registered conservancies

• Boasts mountainous landscapes, semi-precious and precious minerals, underground water and

• 'Prides itself as the most ethnically and demographically diversified region because the OvaHimba lifestyle, tradition, values and culture have never transitioned to modernity even after

centuries of colonialism' [27].

• There are wildlife species such as 'black rhinoceros, elephant, blackfaced impala and Hartmann's mountain zebra' [29] and a large population of lions roaming outside National Parks' fence [28]. • Tourist attractions of value to visitors include 'unique desert dwelling large mammals [29] traditional cultures, quality of Kunene remoteness, and sense of isolation and perception of uncrowded 'exclusivity'

and is very sporadic [26].

in the country) [25].

springs.

[28, 29].

Atlantic Ocean [26].

lation [26, 20].

According to the adaptation at scale in semi-arid regions (ASSAR) project, 'Average temperature trends in the semi-arid areas of Southern African have increased by 0.25°C per decade since 1960. Combined model results indicate a warming rate of between 0.32 and 0.38°C per decade to 2050, depending on future greenhouse gas emissions being either moderately reduced or not reduced at all. Very hot days are projected to occur about 20 times more per year in the 2030s than today. The total rainfall and rainfall extremes, projections for future rainfall are far less certain than those for temperature. However, it is likely that the rainfall variability of the recent past will continue into the future. Projections suggest that dry spells will increase in the future—the longest dry period in a year is projected to increase by about seven days in 2030 compared to today' [36, 2].

Other studies argue that projections for Namibia indicate that Namibia is exposed to the impacts of climate change. These studies further argue that mean temperatures in Namibia have increased by up to 0.5°C over the past half century and are expected to increase by a 5°C by 2100. Namibian rainfall extremes have become more frequent, and rainfall is projected to become more variable with a general trend towards decreased rainfall over the coming century [37].

The climatic and geographic climate of southern Africa, including Namibia, is prone to extreme weather and high annual rainfall variability [38]. It is projected that rainfall in southern African countries might show a decline by −0.6 mm/day with even greater annual variations by the end of the twenty-first century [39]. Recently, northern Namibia experienced long-lasting rainfalls during 2008/09 and 2010/11, which caused devastating floods [40]. On the other hand, the severe drought that Namibia experienced in 2013 had detrimental effects on many people [41].

#### **3.2. Vulnerabilities to climate change for the community-based tourism in Kunene and Zambezi regions**

Livelihoods of communities and farmers in northern Namibia have been predominantly depended on rain-fed subsistence agriculture augmented with the natural products. However, with the emergence of the community-based natural resources management approach introduced in Namibia since 1996, the benefits from wildlife, forest products and local tourism contributed to diversification of livelihoods among rural communities in the northern Namibia. The effects of climatic hazards in Namibian rural areas are severe because of the low socio-economic development and poor infrastructure. For instance, the flooding that was experienced in the neighbouring countries of South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe during the year 2000 had disastrous affects, with 600 human fatalities, 200 bridges and 1000 km road damaged [38, 42]. High levels of poverty and dependency on the traditional agricultural systems also contribute to vulnerabilities towards climatic risks [41].

There are limited reports of flooding affecting the livelihoods of communities in the Kunene region, and it seems that drought may be the greatest climatic hazard. Severe drought events that were experienced in the country occurred during 1981, 1990, 1995, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2013 [41] and 2016 [42]. On the 24 June 2016, the Namibian President, Dr. Hage Geingob made a declaration and was quoted by a local newspaper, declaring a state of emergency due to severe drought experienced in the country: 'I declare that a state of emergency exists in Namibia on the account of the persisting national disaster of drought that exists in all regions of the Republic of Namibia' [43]. Another declaration of emergency due to drought was done by the Former President of the Republic of Namibia, Dr. Hifikepunye Pohamba in 2013.

*'The year 2013 will always be remembered by Namibian farmers as one of the toughest and most challenging periods in 30 years due to the debilitating and devastating drought still threatening the agricultural sector and the country's food security'* [44, 45].

> degradation and disruption of land and environmental resources and human settlement patterns. Tourism in the two northern regions (Kunene and Zambezi) is primarily based on wildlife biodiversity, landscapes and cultural factors, despite the contrast of these aspects and

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**Figure 2.** Annual rainfall of the Zambezi region during 2002/2003–2010/2011 rainy season [40].

During the regional consultations, participants indicated climate risks that are affecting their conservancies and community forests and how these risks are affecting the tourism sector. The tourism sector and ecosystem services were indicated to be sensitive to climatic risks. Drought risks, for instance, lead to water scarcity impacting the tourism businesses, as well landscape scenery and wildlife populations upon which local tourism is depended upon. In Kunene region, veld fires and water scarcity had led to reduced operations or closure of some tourism establishment due to losses of vegetation, migration of game and in few instances, veld fires that destroyed campsite properties. This resulted in job losses and also reduced tourist visit to the region. Severe droughts lead to cancellations, reduced booked holidays and

Seasonal flooding has been identified as another climate risk that affects the tourism sector, mainly in the northern regions of Namibia. It makes roads inaccessible and also destroys tourist establishments. Disease outbreaks, in particular malaria, have been associated with stagnant waters created during flooding. However, tourist activities in the Zambezi region have been planned around its flood history in order to reduce the impacts that flooding may have on tourism in the area. For example, February–April are the months during which flooding is known to occur in this area, and these are the off-season months, when tourism activity is on its minimum. Recent intensified floods in the Zambezi region had resulted in the loss of field crops and livestock. Flooding also causes damages to infrastructure that affected many people in the region and led to the displacement of many families, a result threatening food security and livelihoods [40, 52]. Bosch [40] gave examples of the vulnerabilities within the tourism sector resulting from flooding hazards. Flooding during the year 2009 had been the worst in

scenery.

consequently, decline in tourist visitations [53].

The dependence on natural resources makes communities sensitive to climate variability, such as the extensive droughts experienced in Kunene region and annual floods in Zambezi region [46]. According to Schlechter [47], the effects of severe conditions such as drought and flood impact animal life in a negative manner, especially in conservancies where livestock and wildlife share resources. Species like hartebeest, gemsbok and the endangered black rhino were dying in the northern-west Kunene because of severe water scarcity. Migration of wildlife species to other areas in search for water is common during droughts, and this may lead to disruption of tourism activities in the region [48, 49].

The IPCC categorised the Zambezi basin as exhibiting the 'worst' potential effects of climate change risks among 11 major African basins [50, 51]. Unlike Kunene region in the far north-west, flood is by far the most common hazards in the Zambezi region involving the flooding of flood plains. In the dry season, most areas in the region can be reached by road, but after the rains, 80% of their surface area becomes flooded, cutting them off from the mainland [30, 32]. Longterm productivity of nature-based activities in the Zambezi region is affected by the frequent and heavy floods experienced. Flooding in the Zambezi region fluctuates in intensity depending on the annual rainfall received (**Figure 2**). Rainfall received during the season of 2009 resulted in the rising of the upper Zambezi River, causing severe floods that resulted in several casualties, fatalities and damage to property [52]. **Figure 2** shows that since 2007, the rainfall records indicate more frequent high rainfall followed by a below-average rainfall in 2010/2011 season.

The flood and drought hazards not only affect the agricultural livelihoods but also the naturebased tourism or ecotourism from which communities in communal conservancies earn a living. Tourism is an emerging economic activity in most communal areas of Namibia and is susceptible to natural disasters. The complexity of climate-related risks, coupled with the capacity of people in rural areas reduces the effectiveness of mitigation efforts, resulting in greater losses should a natural disaster occur. For example, developmental activities are likely to be affected by climatic events due to high water demand, poor or limited infrastructure,

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**Figure 2.** Annual rainfall of the Zambezi region during 2002/2003–2010/2011 rainy season [40].

200 bridges and 1000 km road damaged [38, 42]. High levels of poverty and dependency on the traditional agricultural systems also contribute to vulnerabilities towards climatic

There are limited reports of flooding affecting the livelihoods of communities in the Kunene region, and it seems that drought may be the greatest climatic hazard. Severe drought events that were experienced in the country occurred during 1981, 1990, 1995, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2013 [41] and 2016 [42]. On the 24 June 2016, the Namibian President, Dr. Hage Geingob made a declaration and was quoted by a local newspaper, declaring a state of emergency due to severe drought experienced in the country: 'I declare that a state of emergency exists in Namibia on the account of the persisting national disaster of drought that exists in all regions of the Republic of Namibia' [43]. Another declaration of emergency due to drought was done by the Former President of the Republic of Namibia, Dr. Hifikepunye Pohamba in 2013.

*'The year 2013 will always be remembered by Namibian farmers as one of the toughest and most challenging periods in 30 years due to the debilitating and devastating drought still threatening the agri-*

The dependence on natural resources makes communities sensitive to climate variability, such as the extensive droughts experienced in Kunene region and annual floods in Zambezi region [46]. According to Schlechter [47], the effects of severe conditions such as drought and flood impact animal life in a negative manner, especially in conservancies where livestock and wildlife share resources. Species like hartebeest, gemsbok and the endangered black rhino were dying in the northern-west Kunene because of severe water scarcity. Migration of wildlife species to other areas in search for water is common during droughts, and this may lead

The IPCC categorised the Zambezi basin as exhibiting the 'worst' potential effects of climate change risks among 11 major African basins [50, 51]. Unlike Kunene region in the far north-west, flood is by far the most common hazards in the Zambezi region involving the flooding of flood plains. In the dry season, most areas in the region can be reached by road, but after the rains, 80% of their surface area becomes flooded, cutting them off from the mainland [30, 32]. Longterm productivity of nature-based activities in the Zambezi region is affected by the frequent and heavy floods experienced. Flooding in the Zambezi region fluctuates in intensity depending on the annual rainfall received (**Figure 2**). Rainfall received during the season of 2009 resulted in the rising of the upper Zambezi River, causing severe floods that resulted in several casualties, fatalities and damage to property [52]. **Figure 2** shows that since 2007, the rainfall records indicate more frequent high rainfall followed by a below-average rainfall in 2010/2011 season. The flood and drought hazards not only affect the agricultural livelihoods but also the naturebased tourism or ecotourism from which communities in communal conservancies earn a living. Tourism is an emerging economic activity in most communal areas of Namibia and is susceptible to natural disasters. The complexity of climate-related risks, coupled with the capacity of people in rural areas reduces the effectiveness of mitigation efforts, resulting in greater losses should a natural disaster occur. For example, developmental activities are likely to be affected by climatic events due to high water demand, poor or limited infrastructure,

*cultural sector and the country's food security'* [44, 45].

94 Natural Hazards - Risk Assessment and Vulnerability Reduction

to disruption of tourism activities in the region [48, 49].

risks [41].

degradation and disruption of land and environmental resources and human settlement patterns. Tourism in the two northern regions (Kunene and Zambezi) is primarily based on wildlife biodiversity, landscapes and cultural factors, despite the contrast of these aspects and scenery.

During the regional consultations, participants indicated climate risks that are affecting their conservancies and community forests and how these risks are affecting the tourism sector. The tourism sector and ecosystem services were indicated to be sensitive to climatic risks. Drought risks, for instance, lead to water scarcity impacting the tourism businesses, as well landscape scenery and wildlife populations upon which local tourism is depended upon. In Kunene region, veld fires and water scarcity had led to reduced operations or closure of some tourism establishment due to losses of vegetation, migration of game and in few instances, veld fires that destroyed campsite properties. This resulted in job losses and also reduced tourist visit to the region. Severe droughts lead to cancellations, reduced booked holidays and consequently, decline in tourist visitations [53].

Seasonal flooding has been identified as another climate risk that affects the tourism sector, mainly in the northern regions of Namibia. It makes roads inaccessible and also destroys tourist establishments. Disease outbreaks, in particular malaria, have been associated with stagnant waters created during flooding. However, tourist activities in the Zambezi region have been planned around its flood history in order to reduce the impacts that flooding may have on tourism in the area. For example, February–April are the months during which flooding is known to occur in this area, and these are the off-season months, when tourism activity is on its minimum. Recent intensified floods in the Zambezi region had resulted in the loss of field crops and livestock. Flooding also causes damages to infrastructure that affected many people in the region and led to the displacement of many families, a result threatening food security and livelihoods [40, 52]. Bosch [40] gave examples of the vulnerabilities within the tourism sector resulting from flooding hazards. Flooding during the year 2009 had been the worst in 40 years and had more devastating effect in the region than in the year 1969 [40]. For example, local people and tourists had to travel to and from Zambezi lodge or other reachable parking areas by boat, similarly Kalizo, Island View Lodges and Kalimbeza Fishing Camp were all only accessible by boat. In 2008, several other tourism establishments in Zambezi region were affected by the floods such as the Malyo Wilderness Camp, Camp Kwando and Namushasha Lodge's Airstrip, while in 2007, the Mukusi River Lodge was closed as the buildings were submerged in water [40].

for the future hazards. During the 2003/2004 drought, the government spent approximately US\$ 21 million in provision of emergency relief [55]. However, recently, the responses have been geared towards adaptation and increasing the capacity among residents during such risks. The government has implemented projects in the Kunene region to drill boreholes and build earth dams in different constituencies of the region. Activities such as aquifer recharge and acquiring earth-moving equipment were among the responses suggested by communities for ensuring water security in the regions. Sustainable forest management strategies were also among the responses to prevent adverse impact of drought on tourism, emphasising mainly on the veld fire management such as putting up firebreaks and promoting sustainable harvesting of forest products through permits and capacity building. Women in the Kunene region harvest the *Commiphora* species products, which are used to produce perfumes for export and for sale to local tourists as a source of income to support their families. This initia-

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tive receives great support from government and some relevant stakeholders [56].

**4.2. Identified gaps and problems for building resilience**

In terms of flooding in the Zambezi region, the Government spent about US\$ 8,241,099 on flood emergency response during 2009 [55]. Conservancies and government have also been working on adaptation strategies to reduce the impact of flooding hazards on communities, mainly providing assistance for people in lowlands to move to higher grounds permanently and promoting the use of flood resilient materials for residential and business construction. In addition, the government budget was also mainly geared towards ensuring connection and accessibility, even during floods, to different services location such as schools, hospitals, tourism areas and connecting communities. In order to sustain the source of income from the tourism sector, several strategies are employed by communities. Women from Zambezi region diversify to more drought resistance crops in order to supply the tourism-sector business outlets with local fruits and vegetables, despite the climatic events. In other areas, women travel long distances to collect antique natural products, including handcrafts that they supply to local tourism businesses. Although some products such as grass and fibre crafts are sold only by men, both men and women use different strategies to ensure the supply chain of these products. In general, the efforts in the country to increase the adaptive capacity and reducing the sensitivity to climate change risks, for both men and women, are presented in **Figure 3**.

The climate change adaptation programmes and initiatives implemented should ultimately contribute to resilience of local communities and structures. The combination of the adaptive capacity assessment and the gendered social relations frameworks was used to analyse the gaps for resilience building resulting from the community consultations in the two regions. Both men and women from Kunene and Zambezi regions indicated to be accruing benefits from community-based tourism in different ways as well as participating in several activities involving natural resources management. Community-based tourism was rated in most consultations to play a crucial role in employment, training, income generation and empowerment opportunities for different segments of the communities such as the poor, unskilled and lowly educated, women, men and also the youth. A representative of the Namibia EcoAwards facilitating and promoting community-based tourism reflected on the following

Tourism is the source of livelihood diversification of households in both regions. Livelihood diversification strategies are important in Namibia because of the sensitivity to climate change presented in the form of semi-arid conditions. In addition, the impact of climate change on tourism business affects women more or leads to vulnerability among women through reduced earnings. In Namibia, women enjoy an advantage in the tourism workforce as well as most local-level Small-and-Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs) owned by women in the CBNRM sector [54]. Despite dominating the workforce, women from Kunene and Zambezi regions generally receive low wages, which make them more vulnerable to the toll of climate change. Generally, women in rural areas have limited educational qualifications, capital and access to land or property to compete with their male counterparts [55]. Many rural-based tourism opportunities have assisted women to obtain employment locally and other economic gains because they are not mobile or better skilled to migrate elsewhere.
