*2.1.1. The survival of the old explanatory scheme*

rigorous statistical exercise but whose premises and conclusions lack an analytical foundation. Absent this, most thesis, no matter how crazy, can find a statistical basis to give it some

Surely, at this point, specialists in empirical research await an explanation of the observations´ methodology followed in this chapter, but methodological strategy is a procedure proper of

To answer the question about the relationship between the statistics producing research and the scientific explanation, it is necessary to first analyze how explanations are formulated in social sciences. The emergence of natural and social sciences is closely linked to a fundamental change in the historical development of thought that occurred at the beginning of the modern era. This change is particularly characterized by a break in the logic applied to understand and explain the phenomena of the world, or, in a given case, the world itself. Therefore, we must clarify what "explaining" means in the modern sense. From this surges every approach for society's theory construction as second-order observation. This radical transformation in the scheme or logic of thought, which may well be understood as a cognitive paradigm, should be understood as the basic condition for the development of any explanation or theory

"The ancients" thought every phenomenon through until they recognized "one clear terminus" [6]. Nowadays, scientists agree that any hypothesis must desist from claiming an absolute origin that provides the ultimate argument. This is the result of the world's process of secularization that accompanied the three modernity revolutions: the revolutions in the natu-

From the epistemological point of view, this means that it is not possible to understand what exists as the product of an absolute origin and that all questions regarding its cause are answered by resorting to a single ultimate origin. Günter Dux explains this way of proceeding: "The absolute in premodern thinking, where spirit predominates, was absolute because it contained what was to come out of it as substance. The way of explaining consisted of attributing the explanation to the absolute to make it rise from there as an emanation." [7]. The explanatory potential of resorting to the absolute resided in the impossibility to question it. It was impossible to explain something within this logic, since the absolute origin subtracted itself from the question about its own cause. In this regard, Dux points out: "In a world that turned radically secular, in which… nothing that subtracts itself from a set of conditions can be found, the constructively achieved worlds – and their logics – must be explained through the conditions that made it be" [7]. Then, it's not that a certain explanation lost its convincing power along the history of thought, but the substitution of an explaining logic for another, of

the first-order observations, as we will see hereunder.

10 Statistics - Growing Data Sets and Growing Demand for Statistics

**2. Requirements for scientific explanations**

that claims scientific validity.

**2.1. The desistance of absolutes as explanation**

ral sciences, in politics, and in economics.

credibility.

Nevertheless, in many modern sociological and psychological theoretical approaches survive remnants of the absolutist and substantialist logic, which are especially visible in sociology's classical theories and authors because during the historical transition from one logic to another—and despite their attempt to abandon the old explanatory scheme—they retain the idea of an absolute as explanation, but under a different tag. In Durkheim's sociology of religion, for example, "society" is attributed to all forms of religious thought, but this concept in his theory does not provide any information about the creation process of mental constructions. Society is the only origin of the social. With regard to religious phenomena, Durkheim reaffirms the formula that inspired his sociological theory and is based on the identity logic that resort to the Absolute. In it, "society" appears as the origin and cause of all phenomena that require explanation.

The general result of the book (The elementary forms of religious life) is that religion is a prominently social issue, religious ideas are collective ideas that express collective realities: rites are behaviors that can only arise within groups and must be useful to maintain or restore certain psychic states of these groups [8]. In a different place: "just like the concept of religious power and divinity, the concept of soul is not devoid of reality…since society – the only source of everything sacred – is not content with moving us from outside temporarily; it is permanently installed in us." [8].

As shown, Durkheim's concept of society is an ontological construction placed in an allexplaining position by theory, and society precedes everything which sabotages any other possible explanation. The best proof that we are dealing with a secularized form of the metaphysical structure of thought is provided by Durkheim himself, when he declares that it will be necessary to choose between god and society as explanation [9].

A similar structure is behind several philosophical approaches. For example, in moral philosophy, any attempt to discover the origin of morality already involves morality itself. In philosophy, during the fundamentation process, what is intended to be justified is already given. In its explanatory reflection, what is to be explained is already in the explanation: language is in the origin of language, communication is in the origin of communication, and morality, of course, is derived from morality. In the transcendental theory of knowledge, morality as a part of reason comes, of course, from reason, but not as a slowly forming construct along the human societies natural history—having as a condition the brain in which the reason is not contained beforehand—but in its substantial form, which holds what will emerge from it [10].

**2.2. What does explaining mean?**

teenth and nineteenth centuries.

history [14].

emerged and then evolved.

they appeal to then?

If scientific explanations must desist from resorting to the absolute as argument, what must

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Günter Dux very precisely points out what the change in the logic of explanation consists of: the absolute is discarded to recover the real causes of the phenomenon itself, in other words, a causality that thought imposes on phenomena is abandoned, to reflexively reconstruct the real causes inherent to the observed process, that is, the objective relations between things [10]. Therefore, the historical decline of absolutist logic as explanation for the phenomena was accompanied by the emergence of the diversity of science. At the beginning of the modern era, it was no longer possible to resort to an ultimate cause, but each phenomenon showed specific determinants that gave rise to the different sciences. A lengthy list of systems replaces

*"There are logical operations such as those resulting from a class system (meeting of individuals) or relations, arithmetic operations (addition, multiplication, etc., as well as their investments), geometric operations (intersection, deviations, etc.), temporary operations (ordering sequences of events and in-*

In social sciences, the study of the conditions in which cultural forms of life arise made it visible that a methodological strategy that assumed the incorporation of history as explanation was required. To understand social phenomena, it was inescapable to resort to their formation process, their development. Although the theories of sociology's classic theorists, like Durkheim or Marx, have lost their explanatory power for distinct reasons, they have at least the merit of introducing history's explanatory role. The importance of *The Capital* for the development of knowledge consists of following: the formation of economic development from its genesis, first in the commercial capital and then in the industrial capital of the eigh-

In the case of psychology, regardless of the current value attributed to psychoanalysis, identifying mental pathologies as the result of traumatic experiences during the history of the individual was the fundamental contribution of Freudian theory. Albeit, a single experience and experience type—sexuality—were given too much importance, psychic disturbances found their explanation in the subject's own past. Nowadays, everyone accepts the close relationship, discovered by the Freudianism, between an individual's affectivity and his

However, it must be emphasized that scientific work consists of apprehending the intrinsic causality in the dynamics of the process. Every sociocultural form of life can only be explained if one resorts to the conditions in which it started and under which it has continued developing. This is what Marx means when he says that there is only one science:

As we have seen, explaining is a concept that assumes a specific meaning in social theories: it is about reconstructing the conditions in which the sociocultural forms of organization

past, especially his childhood [13]. Everything looks different after a revolution.

the limited relationships of the previous logic. According to Piaget:

*sertion of intervals), mechanical, physical operations, etc."* [13]*.*

Likewise, a fall in premodern absolutist logic also occurs in current theoretical approaches, which attribute certain characteristics to the concept of society, and then the phenomena in this society are seen as consequences of those characteristics. This circularity is found, for example, when it is affirmed that the risk society contains several risks, the society of options offers many options, or that in the society of experience many things can be experienced. All the previous statements are late absolutist historical manifestations, in which finding an explanation means to derive effects from a cause established a priori, and in which they are already contained. This same logic underlies the systems theory when it says that the explanation of the differences in society requires as starting point the unit of the system of society that creates these differences. With the development of thinking in the modern era, this construction of the concept of society results obsolete [4].

Hence, it is only possible to scientifically accept a concept of society when it allows to explain what is to be understood by resorting to empirically verifiable actions in society and asking about the existing conceptions of society in praxis. For example, when society is conceptualized as reciprocal forms [11] or as "a network of connections of practical forms, in which men lead their lives" [12].

The concept of society must be pointed toward the relationships between elements and must neither admit absolutist nor substantial connotations. Vobruba even recommends desisting from a pre-formulated definition of society. He points out that this does not mean the end of a theory of society; rather, it opens the possibility to articulate a theory with empirical content. A theory that can clarify the existing phenomena in practice and can question its causes and its effects [4].

Evidently, in this sense, empirical research, including that which uses quantification and variable relations, can be a very valuable instrument for the process of articulation of a concept of society. If sociology must deal with social and political events subject to a network of actions and social relationships in which these events occur and produce effects, the analysis that empirically verifies them, classifies them, and evaluates them represents a first and valuable step for a latter theoretical exercise that must retake them and explain them. This way of proceeding ensures that the explanation will not be included in the explainer, instead, the explanation will resort to the elaboration of a complex relationship between causes and effects based on data that portrays reality, that is, that ensure an empirical content.

## **2.2. What does explaining mean?**

A similar structure is behind several philosophical approaches. For example, in moral philosophy, any attempt to discover the origin of morality already involves morality itself. In philosophy, during the fundamentation process, what is intended to be justified is already given. In its explanatory reflection, what is to be explained is already in the explanation: language is in the origin of language, communication is in the origin of communication, and morality, of course, is derived from morality. In the transcendental theory of knowledge, morality as a part of reason comes, of course, from reason, but not as a slowly forming construct along the human societies natural history—having as a condition the brain in which the reason is not contained beforehand—but in its substantial form, which holds what will

Likewise, a fall in premodern absolutist logic also occurs in current theoretical approaches, which attribute certain characteristics to the concept of society, and then the phenomena in this society are seen as consequences of those characteristics. This circularity is found, for example, when it is affirmed that the risk society contains several risks, the society of options offers many options, or that in the society of experience many things can be experienced. All the previous statements are late absolutist historical manifestations, in which finding an explanation means to derive effects from a cause established a priori, and in which they are already contained. This same logic underlies the systems theory when it says that the explanation of the differences in society requires as starting point the unit of the system of society that creates these differences. With the development of thinking in the modern era, this construc-

Hence, it is only possible to scientifically accept a concept of society when it allows to explain what is to be understood by resorting to empirically verifiable actions in society and asking about the existing conceptions of society in praxis. For example, when society is conceptualized as reciprocal forms [11] or as "a network of connections of practical forms, in which men

The concept of society must be pointed toward the relationships between elements and must neither admit absolutist nor substantial connotations. Vobruba even recommends desisting from a pre-formulated definition of society. He points out that this does not mean the end of a theory of society; rather, it opens the possibility to articulate a theory with empirical content. A theory that can clarify the existing phenomena in practice and can question its causes and

Evidently, in this sense, empirical research, including that which uses quantification and variable relations, can be a very valuable instrument for the process of articulation of a concept of society. If sociology must deal with social and political events subject to a network of actions and social relationships in which these events occur and produce effects, the analysis that empirically verifies them, classifies them, and evaluates them represents a first and valuable step for a latter theoretical exercise that must retake them and explain them. This way of proceeding ensures that the explanation will not be included in the explainer, instead, the explanation will resort to the elaboration of a complex relationship between causes and effects

based on data that portrays reality, that is, that ensure an empirical content.

emerge from it [10].

lead their lives" [12].

its effects [4].

tion of the concept of society results obsolete [4].

12 Statistics - Growing Data Sets and Growing Demand for Statistics

If scientific explanations must desist from resorting to the absolute as argument, what must they appeal to then?

Günter Dux very precisely points out what the change in the logic of explanation consists of: the absolute is discarded to recover the real causes of the phenomenon itself, in other words, a causality that thought imposes on phenomena is abandoned, to reflexively reconstruct the real causes inherent to the observed process, that is, the objective relations between things [10]. Therefore, the historical decline of absolutist logic as explanation for the phenomena was accompanied by the emergence of the diversity of science. At the beginning of the modern era, it was no longer possible to resort to an ultimate cause, but each phenomenon showed specific determinants that gave rise to the different sciences. A lengthy list of systems replaces the limited relationships of the previous logic. According to Piaget:

*"There are logical operations such as those resulting from a class system (meeting of individuals) or relations, arithmetic operations (addition, multiplication, etc., as well as their investments), geometric operations (intersection, deviations, etc.), temporary operations (ordering sequences of events and insertion of intervals), mechanical, physical operations, etc."* [13]*.*

In social sciences, the study of the conditions in which cultural forms of life arise made it visible that a methodological strategy that assumed the incorporation of history as explanation was required. To understand social phenomena, it was inescapable to resort to their formation process, their development. Although the theories of sociology's classic theorists, like Durkheim or Marx, have lost their explanatory power for distinct reasons, they have at least the merit of introducing history's explanatory role. The importance of *The Capital* for the development of knowledge consists of following: the formation of economic development from its genesis, first in the commercial capital and then in the industrial capital of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries.

In the case of psychology, regardless of the current value attributed to psychoanalysis, identifying mental pathologies as the result of traumatic experiences during the history of the individual was the fundamental contribution of Freudian theory. Albeit, a single experience and experience type—sexuality—were given too much importance, psychic disturbances found their explanation in the subject's own past. Nowadays, everyone accepts the close relationship, discovered by the Freudianism, between an individual's affectivity and his past, especially his childhood [13]. Everything looks different after a revolution.

However, it must be emphasized that scientific work consists of apprehending the intrinsic causality in the dynamics of the process. Every sociocultural form of life can only be explained if one resorts to the conditions in which it started and under which it has continued developing. This is what Marx means when he says that there is only one science: history [14].

As we have seen, explaining is a concept that assumes a specific meaning in social theories: it is about reconstructing the conditions in which the sociocultural forms of organization emerged and then evolved.

A scientific explanation can set spatial and temporal limits to the observation period of the conditions in which the social phenomenon of interest arises, while a theory must contemplate the core aspect of all its development. It must be capable of generalizing in a way that its application covers broader periods of time or a wider range of phenomena.

world and interprets himself in it, then it becomes evident that development possesses a logic.

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Although one might think that the social sciences should resort to history, this does not necessarily mean a remote past that goes to the very process of formation of the constitution of the anthropological species, the conditions in which a phenomenon arises and develops to include conditions in the present or recent history, which require empirical verification, especially in their causality and effectiveness. Quantitative studies provide valuable information that can be considered the solid foundation for the explanations and theory formulation. To this condition is added a third that distinguishes sociology from other disciplines of the social

To answer the question: what should we consider a scientific approach in a science of society? We first must bear in mind that there are two orders of observation and interpretation [15]. An observation of the first order is the people's perspective, who observe and interpret social relations and, according to this, act. In the second-order perspective, people's actions, along

The main difference between the first-order observations level and the second-order observations level lies in the people, which act in relation with a reality on the foundation of their first-order observations, while second-order sociological observations are not linked to the action. Any sociological definition of society must include as reference the actions of the members of society and the knowledge of their actions in which "society" can be identified. Since society is built even without sociology's participation, sociological observation must adhere to the way in which people observe and interpret social relationships and act in society accordingly. As sociology observes and interprets the observations, interpretations, and actions of the people, it assumes the reality with which people act and thus escape the danger of constructing arbitrary conceptualizations, since people's interpretations cannot be of any

Andreas Balog points out that the solid foundation on which the formulation of a concept is based, what provides certainty over the identity of the social phenomena and sets limitations to sociological categorization, is common knowledge, which constitutes the basis for the orientation of the actors in their daily world and is manifested in their actions and in the language of daily life [16]. In this sense, sociology is always a second-order observation.

Thus, since sociology is a second-order observation, its subject of study is society in the sense that there is a group that understands itself as society. It is totally irrelevant if the sociologist thinks there are no reasons to consider that Paraguay and Uruguay are two different societies, what matters is that for the people living in Paraguay and Uruguay—that is, in the firstorder observation—there are enough differences to consider them as two different societies. In the second-order perspective, the concept of society is applied to recover what in society (as empirical group) is perceived and interpreted as society. The concept of society in the second

However, the historical method is not enough for everything [13].

with their observations and interpretations, are sociologically observed.

**2.3. Society under two observation perspectives**

kind if you do not want actions to cause any damage.

order of observation is that which exists and acts in society.

sciences.

In a social science theory, the starting point is the set of constellations formed by systematically organized conditions that influence each other and that only in their joint action give rise to the result. In this sense, the methodological logic that is followed is a relational and systemic logic. However, it is also a procedural logic. By this, we mean that the result, the thought, language, or morality organization forms are not found within the constellation of conditions that constitute the starting point. The result is formed in the process. The difference with the methodology followed by philosophy is evident: in philosophy's logic of derivations, there never is a new phenomenon. Within the procedural logic, there is room for a new phenomenon to arise: life can surge from lifeless matter, from life devoid of spirituality, cognition, language, or morality rise.

However, the reconstruction of the conditions in which the sociocultural forms of life were formed represents only the first step. If we intend to objectively and scientifically analyze the sociocultural forms of life, including current ones, it is necessary to explain why the sociocultural forms of life developed and grew in a specific way. Of course, this approach involves the task of reflecting on the development of history in its entirety. However, a sociological theory is not about advancing the knowledge of the succession of events in their outward appearance, but to follow the footsteps of something like a development logic that sustains the process. Marx already tried this regarding production systems when he found out that the development of the productive forces in human history follows a line that started with hunting and gathering, continues with the agricultural forms of production and all the way till reaching industrial production. And, who would dare today to deny that, in this sense, social evolution is moving in this direction and hence follows a logic? In the same way, Piaget endeavored to demonstrate that the ontogenetic cognitive development parts from a sensory-motor intelligence go through the preoperational stage until reaching the operational and formal-operational stages. And although in the 1980s, a discussion arose regarding the universality of the sequence of stages, epistemologists do not hesitate to admit that cognition is subject to development and that it registers a logic, as Piaget formulated it.

The postmodernist idea that history follows the irrationality tenet undermines the knowledge that countless empirical studies have achieved, and we can consider reliable information. At this point, the postmodern stand is only based on the reluctance to place oneself in the field of knowledge that empirical studies have made available. History is not simply the sequence of innumerable events in which each of them differs from the previous state, the sequence of life forms with which man becomes accessible and reality follows a logic of development. This is precisely what a theory seeks to prove. History, as a man-determined history, in which he interprets himself, is susceptible to explanation. In a rigorous analysis of history, it is not possible to argue that the development has lacked logic, neither in its beginning, nor in its direction. If history is understood as a series of life forms in which man becomes accessible to the world and interprets himself in it, then it becomes evident that development possesses a logic. However, the historical method is not enough for everything [13].

Although one might think that the social sciences should resort to history, this does not necessarily mean a remote past that goes to the very process of formation of the constitution of the anthropological species, the conditions in which a phenomenon arises and develops to include conditions in the present or recent history, which require empirical verification, especially in their causality and effectiveness. Quantitative studies provide valuable information that can be considered the solid foundation for the explanations and theory formulation. To this condition is added a third that distinguishes sociology from other disciplines of the social sciences.
