Author details

possible the collision between the shuttle tanker and the FPSO, given that shuttle tanker is in

Inside the operational zone 0.7918 0.19546 0.039312 0.03528 Outside the operational zone 0.2082 0.80454 0.96069 0.96472

The tandem offloading operation is a complex and difficult marine operation. It may range from once every 3 to 5 days, depending on the production rate, storage capacity of FPSO, and shuttle tanker size. The duration of the operation takes about 24 hours based on FPSO storage capacity and oil transfer rate. Meanwhile, a suitable environmental condition is required. Shuttle tanker loss of position in powered condition and subsequently collision with FPSO is

The proposed method for risk assessment seems to be suitable for complex systems since it allows not only the identification of critical consequences to analyze this kind system but also is a tool to make decision because it allows a quantitative evaluation of accident progression in

The development of the fault tree and event tree is important for the understanding of the functional relation between system components and the relationship with accident progression. Based on the modeling of each accident scenario, the Bayesian analysis is performed considering the evidence of database and knowledge of offloading operation. The objective of Bayesian estimation was to develop a posterior distribution for a set of uncertain parameters allowing estimating a probability for several consequence categories as an integral part of

Based on results of a ship dynamics simulator, the method allows to carry out the probability that the shuttle tanker was in a given position, indicating the variation of the position of the

For the case under analysis, which considered the position between FPSO and shuttle tanker during offloading operation, defined by two operational states, the probability that a failure scenario is true given the system is in a specific operational state is obtained. Both states have

system that change its operational condition during the time.

current theories on decision-making under uncertainty.

tanker in relation to the FPSO due to environmental conditions.

the distribution of positions represented by a Weibull probability function.

<sup>0</sup>:<sup>7918</sup> <sup>¼</sup> <sup>0</sup>:<sup>1059</sup>

P(ST) P(K = C) P(K = B) P(K = A)

P K<sup>ð</sup> <sup>¼</sup> <sup>C</sup>jST <sup>¼</sup> <sup>1</sup>Þ ¼ ð Þ <sup>0</sup>:<sup>1954</sup> <sup>∙</sup>ð Þ <sup>0</sup>:<sup>43</sup>

Table 7. Probabilities that the tanker is inside a given location each for each consequence category.

the inside the operational zone is

120 Probabilistic Modeling in System Engineering

State Consequence category

5. Conclusion

the most significant risk.

C. E. Patiño Rodriguez

Address all correspondence to: elena.patino@udea.edu.co

Department of Industrial Engineering, Engineering College, University of Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia
