2.4. Markovian process

The state of a deterministic dynamical system is some variable which fixes the value of all present and future observables. Consequently, the present state determines the state at all future. However, strictly deterministic systems are rather thin on the ground, so a natural generalization is to say that the present state determines the distribution of future states.


Table 2. Relative severity criteria for hazardous event classification [15].

The probability of the system on "i state" is calculated as an approximate discrete model, based on that for small steps (Δθ toward zero) with recurrent algorithm. Assumed two states, the basic steps of the procedure are:


2.3. Evaluation of consequences and making decision

112 Probabilistic Modeling in System Engineering

That classification is presented in Table 2.

negative effect on system operational condition.

Insignificant I No significant harm to people,

Minor II Slight harm to people in

Major III Serious harm to people in

Catastrophic IV Single fatality or multiple severe

without removal of staff in the interior of the installation

installation, no significant harm to people outside installation

installation and/or slight harm to people outside installation

Table 2. Relative severity criteria for hazardous event classification [15].

harm to people inside and outside of installation

2.4. Markovian process

Description Set

The effects on the system attributable to hazardous event are defined, and Markovian process is used to model the probability of changes during offloading operation that could cause changes in the risk profile developed in step 2. The decision-making theory is used to evaluate the possibility

Consequences of hazardous events or abnormal incidents on the shuttle tanker and offloading operation are described and explained. A severity numerical scale is defined for hazardous event classification. This scale was defined for three sets—safety of personal, facilities, and environment—the first is related to the damages or the lesions that can be caused to the employees and others, the second refers to damages in equipment or installations in shuttle tanker or FPSO, and the third is associated with the damages on fauna, flora, and ecosystem.

The risk is the combination between the failure probability and the severity magnitudes [20]. The decision-making part is related with accepting a certain risk scenario. The decisionmaking theory is used to evaluate the possibility of emergency disconnection during the operation. The risk is associated with an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a

The state of a deterministic dynamical system is some variable which fixes the value of all present and future observables. Consequently, the present state determines the state at all future. However, strictly deterministic systems are rather thin on the ground, so a natural generalization is to say that the present state determines the distribution of future states.

Personal Facilities Environment

installation

low cost

No significant harm to

Major damage or degradation of the installation, with possible repair

Damage or degradation without possible repair or repair take a long time to do

Minor damage or degradation of the installation, with repair at No significant harm to installation, contamination of environment in minimum concentration

Contamination of environment below maximum concentration, though concentration between minimum and medium

Contamination of environment below maximum concentration, though concentration between medium and maximum

Contamination of environment above maximum concentration

of emergency disconnection during the operation given the result of Markovian process.

