**4.1. Scenarios of technological terrorism**

Scenarios of technological terrorism (*SТТ*) imply powerful unauthorized impacts at complex engineering system capable of:

therefore, they have to prepare a powerful action capable of breaking through the *CES* protection barriers [20]. It is necessary for the terrorist to select the method for the attack resulting in the CES end state that would initiate the accident propagation outside the *CES* boundaries. The selection of the attack scenario is made through a hybrid scenario tree that in case of *TT* could be quite simple. It incorporates several attack trees describing the abilities and resources

Analysis of Terrorist Attack Scenarios and Measures for Countering Terrorist Threats

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*Intelligent* terrorism (*IT*) is a deliberate unauthorized interference into the process of designing, building, and/or operating the CES aimed at increasing its existing vulnerabilities and creating new ones in the system so that these input vulnerabilities, insider's knowledge of the system, and access to its elements are used for future realization of most disastrous scenarios

• A comprehensive vulnerability assessment of a system under design, construction, or operation with respect to various scenarios of terrorist impacts and identification of the most

• Insertion of latent changes into the system at the stage of its being designed, built, or oper-

As a rule, scenarios *of IT* require that a member of a terrorist group penetrate into the staff of the organization that is designing, building, or operating the *CES*. The terrorist must possess insider's information on the *CES* and be able to perform well-camouflaged actions in order to weaken protection systems and create latent defects undetectable by the existing monitoring systems.

Consequently intelligent terrorism implicates detailed knowledge of the *CES* structure and working principles. It also implies awareness of its existing and potential vulnerabilities, possible end states, possible scenarios of accident propagation, and initial impacts that can trigger them. Additionally, *IT* can anticipate distortion of the success scenario, formulate false

• At the stage of design, some latent defects can be intentionally introduced into the system. • At the stage of construction, additional vulnerabilities can be input into the *CES* through

• At the stage of operation, some maintenance procedures that are critical for the *CES*'s safety

Attacks of intelligent terrorism can be carried out at any stage of the *CES*'s life cycle:

of terrorists and the event tree describing the *CES* vulnerability (**Figure** 4).

**4.2. Scenarios of intelligent (or highly sophisticated, insiders') terrorism**

effective way of realization of the initiating impact upon the system

• Disconnection or disruption of the *CES* monitoring and protection systems

ated, in order to give rise to new vulnerabilities in the CES

• Triggering cascading failures in the system and the environment

targets, and generate new disastrous scenarios.

can be intentionally violated.

intentional violations of the technological processes.

of a terrorist attack.

*IT* implies:


Technological terrorism is based on taking advantage of the existing vulnerability of the system. To perform an attack of technological terrorism, it is necessary to preliminarily:


Scenarios of technological terrorism do not require that the attacking party have any insider information and can inflict point impacts imperceptible by the *CES* monitoring systems;

**Figure 4.** The scenario tree for technological terrorism.

therefore, they have to prepare a powerful action capable of breaking through the *CES* protection barriers [20]. It is necessary for the terrorist to select the method for the attack resulting in the CES end state that would initiate the accident propagation outside the *CES* boundaries.

The selection of the attack scenario is made through a hybrid scenario tree that in case of *TT* could be quite simple. It incorporates several attack trees describing the abilities and resources of terrorists and the event tree describing the *CES* vulnerability (**Figure** 4).
