**Meet the editor**

Andrey Kostogryzov finished Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics, in 1979, and is now the Main Researcher of the Federal Research Center "Computer Science and Control" of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow), Director and Scientific Leader of the Research Institute of Applied Mathematics and Certification, Professor of

the Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas, Senior Expert of the Main Scientific Research Test Center of the Russian Ministry of Defence, Honored Science Worker of the Russian Federation, and Doctor of Science, Professor, and Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Rockets and Artillery Sciences. He is also the Winner of the Award of the Government of the Russian Federation in the Field of Science and Engineering, Chairman of Subcommittee "Information Security and Industrial Safety" and "Information Technologies" of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation, Chairman of Subcommittee "System and Software Engineering" of the National Technical Committee "Information Technologies," and Certified Expert of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation, PJSC Gazprom. He is the author of more than 100 mathematical models for systems analysis of quality and risks and more than 200 scientific works, including 18 books.

Contents

**Preface VII**

**System Engineering 3**

**Section 2 Modeling of Industrial Systems 53**

**Enterprises 23**

Nistratov

**Natural Gas 81**

C. E. Patiño Rodriguez

A. Neganov

**Section 1 General Propositions for Solving Analytical Problems 1**

Chapter 1 **Probabilistic Modelling in Solving Analytical Problems of**

Anatoly Lepikhin, Vladimir Moskvichev and Nikolay Machutov

**Rationale of Preventive Measures by Using "Smart Systems": Applications to Coal Branch for Increasing Industrial Safety of**

Vsevolod Kershenbaum, Leonid Grigoriev, Petr Kanygin and Andrey

Yuriy V. Lisin, Nikolay A. Makhutov, Vladimir A. Nadein and Dmitriy

Chapter 2 **Probabilistic Methods and Technologies of Risk Prediction and**

Vladimir Artemyev, Jury Rudenko and George Nistratov

Chapter 3 **Probabilistic Modeling Processes for Oil and Gas 55**

Chapter 4 **Probabilistic Analysis of Transportation Systems for Oil and**

Chapter 5 **Decision-Making Model for Offshore Offloading Operations Based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment 105**
