3. Summary

Probabilistic modeling is an important method of risk analysis and justification of preventive measures for space systems and technologies.

Methods of calculating ballistic trajectories and assessment of collision risks with space debris are based on conversion of inaccurate source data, results of which are random variables. Therefore, the risk of collision can be specified as a probability measure.

Preventive measures for controlled spacecraft are reduced to change of trajectory, which could prevent or reduce this risk.
