**1. Introduction**

A history of development of the oil and gas industry all over the world, and in the Russian Federation, is impressive. Since 1930s large oil and gas fields have been opened; a huge number of oil refining and petrochemical factories are constructed. In recent years, the role of the gas branch has essentially increased; pipeline transport, thanks to which the basic part of Russia's territory is provided with gas, oil and mineral oil, has actively developed; export of these products is carried out; there has been development of sea deposits. Hydrocarbon

© 2016 The Author(s). Licensee InTech. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2018 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

reservoirs, pipeline transport, oil refining and petrochemical factories, various storehouses of oil and gas, sea platforms and terminals and so on are examples of objects of modeling in oil and gas systems (OGS)—see **Figure 1**.

The automated dispatching control (ADC) meets the requirements of continuous technological processes control (ADC is the heterogeneous man–machine control system of the technological process integrating the dispatcher with an information-operating system, providing

Probabilistic Modeling Processes for Oil and Gas http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.74963 57

Theoretical bases for creating heterogeneous control systems are at the formation stage. Effective ACD operation in general depends on the quality of modeling objects and managerial processes. Problems of modeling for oil and gas systems should be considered for two

• problems of technological process control taking into account features of oil and gas manu-

• problems of monitoring and prediction of the integrated metrics, providing safe and com-

In such a manner, the systemic uncertainty inherent in oil and gas technologies due to the specificity of the objects under study leads to the need for modeling oil and gas systems, the goal of which is ultimately to manage risks at all levels of the hierarchy and all stages of

The problems posed are quite sophisticated, due to the complexity of the systems being studied, the operation of which is clearly non-linear. And at the same time, it is highly an actual

The proposed probabilistic approaches, applicable in the system's life cycle, help to answer the main question: "What rational measures should lead to expected effects without wasted

Modeling demands the analysis of specificity for OGS, estimating existing uncertainties. Prominent features of objects of oil and gas manufacture, characterizing uncertainties and

The performed analysis has revealed prominent features of uncertainties for separate objects of oil and gas manufacture and has shown that probabilistic modeling, models for estimations and identifications, a method of Monte-Carlo, is widely and successfully applied for solving problems of technological process control. The nature of uncertainty of processes and objects of oil and gas manufacture is various; that is in many respects caused by long processes of hydrocarbon formation. Therefore, the occurrence of technology of evolutionary modeling as often named synergistic analysis (with the theory of non-linear systems and the self-organizing

one, taking into account the noted role of the OGS in the economy of modern world.

expenses, when, by which controllable and uncontrollable conditions and costs?"

**2. About the problems that are due to be solved by probabilistic** 

automatic information gathering, transfer, processing and display [1, 2]).

petitive development of the OGS enterprises.

complexity of modeling are presented in **Table 1**.

levels:

facture and.

the life cycle [1–10].

**modeling**

Technological processes of oil and gas branches are various. As a matter of fact, it is all a spectrum of processes from hydrocarbon extraction to end-product production. There are geological and geophysical researches; drilling; developing of hydrocarbon reservoirs (both on land, shelves and on the sea); pipeline transport and oil and gas storage; refining and chemistry. The end production of oil and gas manufacturing is used in majority branches of the modern economy. Unfortunately, up-to-date claims for deposits of hydrocarbons are the reasons for international conflicts.

Features which are necessary for consideration for the creation of control systems by technological processes and at construction are peculiar to the oil and gas branch. So technological processes are continuous, and objects are difficult and demand at the management level of performing synergistic researches. Objects of oil and gas manufacturing are technologically dangerous; therefore, the role of systems' safety and ecological monitoring is significant. The initial information possesses are characterized by the high level of uncertainty generated by natural factors.

**Figure 1.** Objects of modeling.

The automated dispatching control (ADC) meets the requirements of continuous technological processes control (ADC is the heterogeneous man–machine control system of the technological process integrating the dispatcher with an information-operating system, providing automatic information gathering, transfer, processing and display [1, 2]).

reservoirs, pipeline transport, oil refining and petrochemical factories, various storehouses of oil and gas, sea platforms and terminals and so on are examples of objects of modeling in oil

Technological processes of oil and gas branches are various. As a matter of fact, it is all a spectrum of processes from hydrocarbon extraction to end-product production. There are geological and geophysical researches; drilling; developing of hydrocarbon reservoirs (both on land, shelves and on the sea); pipeline transport and oil and gas storage; refining and chemistry. The end production of oil and gas manufacturing is used in majority branches of the modern economy. Unfortunately, up-to-date claims for deposits of hydrocarbons are the reasons for

Features which are necessary for consideration for the creation of control systems by technological processes and at construction are peculiar to the oil and gas branch. So technological processes are continuous, and objects are difficult and demand at the management level of performing synergistic researches. Objects of oil and gas manufacturing are technologically dangerous; therefore, the role of systems' safety and ecological monitoring is significant. The initial information

possesses are characterized by the high level of uncertainty generated by natural factors.

and gas systems (OGS)—see **Figure 1**.

56 Probabilistic Modeling in System Engineering

international conflicts.

**Figure 1.** Objects of modeling.

Theoretical bases for creating heterogeneous control systems are at the formation stage. Effective ACD operation in general depends on the quality of modeling objects and managerial processes. Problems of modeling for oil and gas systems should be considered for two levels:


In such a manner, the systemic uncertainty inherent in oil and gas technologies due to the specificity of the objects under study leads to the need for modeling oil and gas systems, the goal of which is ultimately to manage risks at all levels of the hierarchy and all stages of the life cycle [1–10].

The problems posed are quite sophisticated, due to the complexity of the systems being studied, the operation of which is clearly non-linear. And at the same time, it is highly an actual one, taking into account the noted role of the OGS in the economy of modern world.

The proposed probabilistic approaches, applicable in the system's life cycle, help to answer the main question: "What rational measures should lead to expected effects without wasted expenses, when, by which controllable and uncontrollable conditions and costs?"
