**8. Examples of complex structures: modeling pipelines**

**№ Processes Probability of providing** 

Example 4: The next system question is very important: What about the benefit for enterprise "the prediction of complex quality" based on the probabilistic modeling of processes?

 Processes connected with operation of entrance threads 0.70–0.90 Processes of low temperature gas separations 0.62–0.87 Processes of economical measure of gas 0.9999 Processes of gas heating and reduction 0.94 Processes of candle and torch separation 0.82 Processes connected with storage and use methanol 0.63

**Figure 11.** Predicted reliability of equipment connected with operation of entrance threads.

7 Processes connected with storage, supply and drainage dumps of the

**7. General estimation of predicted quality**

70 Probabilistic Modeling in System Engineering

8 Managing processes in engineering Division, manufacturing Division, booster compressor station Division, administrative Department

**Table 2.** Comparative results of production processes modeling.

weathered condensation and diesel fuel

**acceptable quality during a year**

0.60

0.67

Example 5: There is system which consists of a 560-km pipeline for pumping liquefied natural gas across the South American territory (the source of modeling data is a technical report of one of the oil companies). All lay of the line conventionally is divided into three parts (subsystems) by service conditions: first part through the jungle (200 km), second part through the mountains (300 km) and third through the plains (60 km). These characteristics of pipeline subsystems are presented in **Table 3**. It is assumed that the annual profit of operation of the pipeline in the first 5 years is 1500.000 and after is 2500.000 conventional units of accounts per year. It is required to predict the risks taking into account profits and the estimated costs (in conventional units of account) for the construction and maintenance of various sections of the pipeline between 10 and 50 years of its operation.


**Table 3.** Characteristics of hazards, measures of control, monitoring and maintaining pipeline integrity.

**The solution of a problem:** The traditional approach to risk analysis is limited by the obtainment values of the frequency of potential hazard impacts on a 100-km lay of the line— see the first row of characteristics in the table. The proposed solution allows not only for obtaining risks from frequency but also implies how security will change as a result of management. Traditional approaches are not possible to feel the effectiveness of the measures taken for measures of control, monitoring and maintaining integrity. Measures should not seem effective but should be really effective! It is necessary to understand their influence on securing ultimate security. The correct understanding of the possibilities of the impact on safety from measures of control, monitoring and maintaining integrity will allow rationally managing their parameters. The proposed approach provides for the use of these and other data of **Table 3** as input data for subsequent mathematical modeling using the models of Section 3. The results of predictive modeling for 10 and 50 years showed the following (see **Figure 12**).

in the jungle and in the mountains every month and at the plains weekly. Subsystems' state monitoring is tracked mainly in the days of control. The analysis of the results of the calculations shows that systematic monitoring allows one to increase the safety of operations of the pipeline in the jungle and in the mountains by 1.5 times, in the plain by 4 times, but throughout the 560-km stretch of the pipeline it is by 1.6 times! This is a real job for pre-emption as compared with the case of the absence of any control; when troubleshooting, it is only after the accident that cannot be overlooked. It is assumed that operative repair with restore the

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Promising technologies will implement a continuous monitoring of the pipeline at any point. For example, it may be a scan of the air situation using electronic locator fighters of the fourth and fifth generations with the smart cover. Similarly, intellectual filling of the pipeline will signal the dangers of the results with relevant coordinates and diagnosis. If we know the location and cause of the potential failure of the restoration of the integrity it becomes a routine "matter of technique." Under these conditions there's real will be the mean time of safe operation of the pipeline of about 165,000 h, which is achieved when the mean time of failure of monitoring tools is about a year. The mean time of failure in the jungle will be more than 28,0000 h, in the mountains more than 40,000 h and on the plains more than 18 million h (as in the engines of space vehicles!). The analysis of calculation results shows that rational frequency of periodically controlled, continuous monitoring and prompt removal of the

• for the existing technologies, the security risks for 10 years constitute 0.95–0.97 (which means that a number of accidents seem almost inevitable, while in the jungles, with a probability 0.91–0.94, in the mountains with a probability 0.88–0.92 and on the plains with a probability 0.42–0.75; in 50 years, the risk exceeds 0.99 (dozens of accidents, even in the jungle, with a probability of 0.98–0.99, in the mountains with a probability of 0.97–0.98 and

• for the promising technologies, the security risks in 10 years constitute 0.35 (i.e., practically for some 10 years, we can even avoid accidents, and in the jungle, the accident will be possible with a probability of 0.24, in the mountains with a probability of 0.18 and on the plains with a probability of 0.005), in 50 years it is 0.73 (2–4 crashes in 50 years in the jungle with a probability of 0.61, in the mountains with a probability of 0.52 and in the plain with probability 0.02);

• the cost will be in 10 years 8.012.000 c.u. and over 50 years it will be 40.060.000 c.u.; moreover, the costs of an area of the pipeline in the mountains are twice more than costs in the

• the approximate profit of the pipeline owner costs less and without adjustment of inflation in 10 years is 11.988.000 c.u.; that in one and a half times exceeds the costs, and in 50 years is 79.940.000 c.u., which is double the costs. Moreover, the expenditure will produce returns in less than in a year. That means that when using promising technologies the quantity of accidents may be reduced on the matter; even these accidents happen either in the jungle or

detected faults increase security in 33–54% compared to existing technology.

integrity follows after the failure detection immediately.

The results obtained show clearly the following:

on the plains with a probability of 0.78–0.94);

jungles and on the order more than ones on the plains;

As a result of applying technologies, which had been developed in 2008, the average time achievable of the safe operation is approximately 3000–5000 h. At the same mean time, failure in the jungle is 5767–8745 h; in the mountains it is 8255–12,676 h; and on the plain it is 29,500–1,22,145 h. Note that the upper estimate was inherent for the systematic maintaining of pipeline integrity (when all failures and critical areas with potential danger are identified)

**Figure 12.** Predicted risks taking into account monitoring possibilities.

in the jungle and in the mountains every month and at the plains weekly. Subsystems' state monitoring is tracked mainly in the days of control. The analysis of the results of the calculations shows that systematic monitoring allows one to increase the safety of operations of the pipeline in the jungle and in the mountains by 1.5 times, in the plain by 4 times, but throughout the 560-km stretch of the pipeline it is by 1.6 times! This is a real job for pre-emption as compared with the case of the absence of any control; when troubleshooting, it is only after the accident that cannot be overlooked. It is assumed that operative repair with restore the integrity follows after the failure detection immediately.

Promising technologies will implement a continuous monitoring of the pipeline at any point. For example, it may be a scan of the air situation using electronic locator fighters of the fourth and fifth generations with the smart cover. Similarly, intellectual filling of the pipeline will signal the dangers of the results with relevant coordinates and diagnosis. If we know the location and cause of the potential failure of the restoration of the integrity it becomes a routine "matter of technique." Under these conditions there's real will be the mean time of safe operation of the pipeline of about 165,000 h, which is achieved when the mean time of failure of monitoring tools is about a year. The mean time of failure in the jungle will be more than 28,0000 h, in the mountains more than 40,000 h and on the plains more than 18 million h (as in the engines of space vehicles!). The analysis of calculation results shows that rational frequency of periodically controlled, continuous monitoring and prompt removal of the detected faults increase security in 33–54% compared to existing technology.

The results obtained show clearly the following:

**The solution of a problem:** The traditional approach to risk analysis is limited by the obtainment values of the frequency of potential hazard impacts on a 100-km lay of the line— see the first row of characteristics in the table. The proposed solution allows not only for obtaining risks from frequency but also implies how security will change as a result of management. Traditional approaches are not possible to feel the effectiveness of the measures taken for measures of control, monitoring and maintaining integrity. Measures should not seem effective but should be really effective! It is necessary to understand their influence on securing ultimate security. The correct understanding of the possibilities of the impact on safety from measures of control, monitoring and maintaining integrity will allow rationally managing their parameters. The proposed approach provides for the use of these and other data of **Table 3** as input data for subsequent mathematical modeling using the models of Section 3. The results of predictive modeling for 10 and 50 years showed the following (see **Figure 12**). As a result of applying technologies, which had been developed in 2008, the average time achievable of the safe operation is approximately 3000–5000 h. At the same mean time, failure in the jungle is 5767–8745 h; in the mountains it is 8255–12,676 h; and on the plain it is 29,500–1,22,145 h. Note that the upper estimate was inherent for the systematic maintaining of pipeline integrity (when all failures and critical areas with potential danger are identified)

72 Probabilistic Modeling in System Engineering

**Figure 12.** Predicted risks taking into account monitoring possibilities.


in the mountains. It's quite a profitable and secure project. It must be admitted that the level of security obtained—the risks are 0.35 in 10 years and 0.73 in 50 years—can be considered as normative "acceptable."

Thus, the examples of forecasting the security operation of the pipelines have illustrated the ability to proactively manage risk. The effectiveness is not just using the universal models but also in the justification of the necessary system requirements for new materials (pipes should be intelligent with the ability of continuous monitoring and mean time of failure for at least a year) and in technologies of restoring functional integrity, in minimizing risks on the basis of the control parameters of the processes of control, monitoring and restoring even before promising technologies have appeared! It is therefore proposed to manage the risks for pipelines of the future even before their creation and based on this, to justify the technical requirements to the system and their components.

#### **Summary for Example 5**:

**1.** Rational control, continuous monitoring and prompt elimination of the revealed accidents and failures allow one to increase the safety tens of times compared to the lack of a systematic control and monitoring!

**2.** With using advanced technology accidents and failures on plains it is possible to virtually excludes, and in the jungles and mountains to reduce of their number many times.

drilling); gas-and-oil production—19%; ship collision and towing of floating drilling rigs and blocks for platform construction —14%; storms—11%; floating drilling rigs' delivery to the

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A safety policy concerning sea GOPS safety includes accident prevention and drawing, plans concerning failure consequences of liquidation and actions taken in case of emergencies. Special brigades are formed and trained to prevent and liquidate failure consequences. Highquality materials and pipes and application of computer diagnostics for pipe integrity moni-

All safety measures undertaken nowadays provide system protection from inexperienced personnel (because according to statistics about 80% of all failures are connected with the human factor) or from the natural causes and "cataclysms" which are of an unpremeditated character. However, the attitude to safety cardinally varies in case of terrorist threats because terrorist actions are malicious and aimed at damaging the system through its vulnerable "bot-

The examples 6 and 7 are devoted to modeling processes of possible terrorist influence and GOPS safety provision (including platforms, coastal technological complexes including terminals for floating storage and offloading, liquefied natural gas terminals, pipelines, tubing stations) and to withdraw quantitative evaluations of their vulnerability in various

Example 6: connected with an estimation of effectiveness of a safety monitoring system for sea GOPS. Before we start the analysis of possible terrorist threats, let us consider the basic dangers that can arise on sea platforms in case of failures. They are explosions of fuel-air mixed

tlenecks." As a result the existing risks of system safety violation essentially grow.

point of drilling—6%; and other kinds of works—18%.

**Figure 13.** Some explanation of conditions for examples 6 and 7.

toring provide safety of the GOPS operation.

scenarios.
