**Author details**

Vsevolod Kershenbaum1,2, Leonid Grigoriev<sup>2</sup> , Petr Kanygin3 and Andrey Nistratov3,4\*


4 The Federal State Organization, Russian Energy Agency of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia

#### **References**


[3] Kolowrocki K, Soszynska-Budny J.Reliability and Safety of Complex Technical Systems and Processes. Springer-Verlag London Limited; 2011. 405p. DOI: 10.1007/978-0-85729-694-8

**10. Instead of conclusion**

78 Probabilistic Modeling in System Engineering

commensurable with expenses for system creation.

the practice of education and research.

Vsevolod Kershenbaum1,2, Leonid Grigoriev<sup>2</sup>

Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia

1 National Institute of Oil and Gas, Moscow, Russia

Life Cycle. Moscow: APC; 2008. 404 p

\*Address all correspondence to: andrey.nistratov@gmail.com

2 Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas, Moscow, Russia

3 Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia

4 The Federal State Organization, Russian Energy Agency of the Ministry of Energy of the

[1] Kostogryzov AI, Stepanov PV. Innovative Management of Quality and Risks in Systems

[2] Grigoriev LI, Kershenbaum VY, Kostogryzov AI. System Foundations of the Management of Competitiveness in Oil and Gas Complex. Moscow: National Institute of Oil and Gas;

**Author details**

**References**

2010. 374p

The presented probabilistic approaches allow us to research different problems for providing safe and effective development of hydrocarbon deposits and rational operation of oil and gas systems. Their application in the system's life cycle helps to answer the main question. "What rational measures should lead to expected effects without wasted expenses, when, by which controllable and uncontrollable conditions and costs?" The efficiency from implementation is

The probabilistic modeling, comprehensive and systematic studies on the competitiveness of OGS have been carried out in Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas (National Research University) over a period of several years. These researches are concerned with the most important economic branch, which largely determines the country's energy security and efficiency. Certainly, the integral view of OGS competitiveness seamlessly includes the most important components of quality, safety, energy efficiency, environmental compatibility, economic aspects and so on. In turn, these components are also complex, integral and affect a wide range of activities. Moreover, competitiveness as a complex integral metric characterizes the studied considered systems and objects (as living organisms) that have the property of changes in the life time. The proposed probabilistic models and methods are widely used in

, Petr Kanygin3

and Andrey Nistratov3,4\*


**Chapter 4**

Provisional chapter

**Probabilistic Analysis of Transportation Systems for Oil**

DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.75078

In this chapter, the need of probabilistic modeling for design, construction, and operation of oil and gas pipelines is justified. Such modeling should use information and databases on deterministic and statistical dependencies related to deformation, damage accumulation, failure, fracture accidents, and catastrophes. The probabilistic design equations and their parameters for the characteristics of strength, durability, fracture toughness, risks of accidents, and manmade catastrophes are given. The economic efficiency of pipeline management based on controlling probabilistic characteristics through conducting diagnostic, repair-and-renewal operations while ensuring the acceptable levels of reliability and safety parameters is substantiated. The results of studies in the field of statistics and probabilities of emergency situations during manufacturing, construction, and operation

Keywords: oil and gas transportation, pipeline transport, main pipelines system,

Oil, gas and chemical complex (OGCC) is one of the system and fund forming in our country. It includes tens of thousands of oil and gas production facilities, over 500,000 km of field and main pipelines for transportation of liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons, thousands of large oil and gas storage facilities, and hundreds of major oil and gas refineries for fuel and chemical

> © 2016 The Author(s). Licensee InTech. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and eproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

© 2018 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,

distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Probabilistic Analysis of Transportation Systems for Oil

**and Natural Gas**

and Natural Gas

Abstract

1. Introduction

products for civil and military use.

Yuriy V. Lisin, Nikolay A. Makhutov,

Yuriy V. Lisin, Nikolay A. Makhutov,

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.75078

Vladimir A. Nadein and Dmitriy A. Neganov

Vladimir A. Nadein and Dmitriy A. Neganov

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

conducted by Russian and foreign specialists are presented.

pipe steel, pipeline strength, yield strength

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

#### **Probabilistic Analysis of Transportation Systems for Oil and Natural Gas** Probabilistic Analysis of Transportation Systems for Oil and Natural Gas

DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.75078

Yuriy V. Lisin, Nikolay A. Makhutov, Vladimir A. Nadein and Dmitriy A. Neganov Yuriy V. Lisin, Nikolay A. Makhutov, Vladimir A. Nadein and Dmitriy A. Neganov

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.75078

#### Abstract

In this chapter, the need of probabilistic modeling for design, construction, and operation of oil and gas pipelines is justified. Such modeling should use information and databases on deterministic and statistical dependencies related to deformation, damage accumulation, failure, fracture accidents, and catastrophes. The probabilistic design equations and their parameters for the characteristics of strength, durability, fracture toughness, risks of accidents, and manmade catastrophes are given. The economic efficiency of pipeline management based on controlling probabilistic characteristics through conducting diagnostic, repair-and-renewal operations while ensuring the acceptable levels of reliability and safety parameters is substantiated. The results of studies in the field of statistics and probabilities of emergency situations during manufacturing, construction, and operation conducted by Russian and foreign specialists are presented.

Keywords: oil and gas transportation, pipeline transport, main pipelines system, pipe steel, pipeline strength, yield strength
