**5. Summary**

As presented in the sections above, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya and Niger have been experiencing considerable rainfall fluctuations; that is often below average levels. In addition to that all countries have also experienced rising temperatures. As shown in **Figure 6**, it is

**Figure 6.** DRC, KEN and NER time series and forecasted line plots 1960–2025.

predicted that these climatic conditions will continue to exist. Populations in these countries have been growing rapidly. These unfavourable climatic conditions and increasing population have together compounded the water scarcity and rural-urban migration conditions in Kenya and Niger. In contacts to that, Democratic Republic of Congo receives high annual rainfalls and medium low average annual temperature. Democratic Republic of Congo has abundant water resources and the renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (m3 ) is significantly high. During the vector auto-regression analyses, the lag selection process suggested lag 3 in all cases. VAR was used to investigate the interaction between climatic variables—rainfall and temperature—and people movement variables—rural and urban migrations. By using VAR (3), it was tested how rainfall variabilities and rising temperatures impact rural-urban migrations in Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya and Niger. The VAR results have suggested that both rainfall and temperature impact rural migration and statistically significant. Further, the results also indicated that there is a significant relationship between rural and urban migrations.

Moreover, granger causality Wald tests were conducted to test the VAR model and to determine whether each variable plays a significant role in each of the equations. The granger causality tests have shown that there is significant granger causality effect from Rain and/or Temp to both rural and urban migrations in Democratic Republic of Congo and Kenya. Moreover, Rain and Temp together have a combined granger effect on MR and MU; this is statistically significant. In contrast, the granger causality test has shown that there is significant granger causality effect from Rain to both rural and urban migrations in Niger. However, rising temperatures does not appear to granger cause people movement in Niger. The results also suggest that there is a significant granger causes exist between rural migration and urban migration where each migration variable granger causes the other at less than 1% significance level. VAR auto forecasting in Stata and Eqs. (4), (5), (6), (7), (8) and (9) (inclusive) were used to predict changes of rural migration, urban migration, rainfall and temperature of Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya and Niger in the next 10 years. The study predicts increasing rural-urban migrations in the next decade due to high rainfall variabilities and increasing temperatures. This study suggests that there will be a large number of rural communities leaving from their villages to urban areas due to water availability conditions and poor agricultural production levels.
