**6. Conclusion**

**5. Summary**

**Table 12.** Granger causality Wald tests for MR and MU of Niger.

24 Applications in Water Systems Management and Modeling

**Figure 6.** DRC, KEN and NER time series and forecasted line plots 1960–2025.

As presented in the sections above, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya and Niger have been experiencing considerable rainfall fluctuations; that is often below average levels. In addition to that all countries have also experienced rising temperatures. As shown in **Figure 6**, it is

**Equation Excluded chi2 df P-value** NER\_MR NER\_MU 14.534 3 0.002 NER\_MR NER\_Rain 8.5631 3 0.036 NER\_MR NER\_Temp 3.4747 3 0.324 NER\_MR ALL 33.264 9 0.000 NER\_MU NER\_MR 2.9754 3 0.395 NER\_MU NER\_Rain 10.792 3 0.013 NER\_MU NER\_Temp 4.9537 3 0.175 NER\_MU ALL 23.811 9 0.005

> This study investigated Sub-Saharan Africa water availability and water security conditions in relation to rural-urban migration numbers. The SSA countries considered in this study are Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Kenya (KEN) and Niger (NER). The countries were selected based on specific factors such as water resources availability, population growth, migration processes and urbanization situation in recent times. The study finds that all three countries have fast growing populations with Niger having the highest fertility rate in the world. The countries are experiencing rapid urbanization where rural communities have been moving to urban areas at increased rates. The study finds that the renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters) in Niger and Kenya have reached well below the water scarcity level of 1000 m<sup>3</sup> /capita/annum. In 2014, these countries had renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters) of 183 m3 /capita/annum and 450 m3 /capita/annum, respectively. On the other hand, Democratic Republic of Congo is known to be the SSA's water rich

state and in 2014 DRC had renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters) of 12,208 m3 /capita/annum. Despite the water abundancy situation only 52.4% of the total population in DRC has access to improved water source. Further it is noted that 81% of urban population and 31% of rural populations had access to clean water sources in DRC in 2015. In general, many rural communities in these countries have limited access to clean water. Water availability and accessibility remains to be major challenge in rural communities of these countries.

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This study reveals large rainfall variation and raising temperatures in DRC, KEN and NER. The adverse nature of climate change in these countries appears to have impacted agricultural production and likelihoods in the rural communities. These conditions led great deal of rural-urban migrations that occurred in these countries in recent times. Further, limited access to clean water in rural communities appears to have compounded the rural migration and rapid urbanization in these countries. In addition to that, the agricultural production in SSA has not been improving in recent times and this has exacerbated the move away from rural areas towards the urban. The study conducted VAR analyses and granger causality tests and concluded that rainfall and temperature have granger impact on rural and urban migrations in DRC, KEN and NER. The study predicts increasing rural and urban migrations in Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya and Niger due to large rainfall fluctuations and rising temperatures.
