**10. Outlook from the BASE-Project**

As a result, data from the BASE-project are useful with regard to several aspects (cf. Barnikel et al. 2009):


Another step, as mentioned above, will be the inclusion of (validated) contributions made by citizens all over Bavaria who share an interest in earthquakes and have access to local publications or documents which may have been denied wider distribution in journals or other scientific publications and are, therefore, largely unknown. Of course a *caveat* must be kept in mind, namely that "the tendency of some chroniclers to attract attention by exaggerating of manufacturing information is known" (Kárník, 1988).

The figure of unknown earthquake-epicentres remains a problem that needs to be solved. The inclusion of data from local archives is, consequently, of utmost importance. The future presentation of the BASE-DB on the web (www.erdbeben-in-bayern.de) is an important step to reach this goal and serves as an example for other catalogues. The inclusion of the original text sources is crucial in this respect, because it allows later adjustment and validation. But a future assimilation of the existing catalogues from the different European countries will also be important. The BASE-project collects, in addition to that, written data for events after 1905 in a second step. A comparison between the written sources and instrumental data from the seismometre may prove useful for the calibration of older written data. Another step should be an examination, how reliability scales (cf. Papadopoulos et al., 2000) could be used to classify the reliability of the historical earthquakes collected by BASE and the implementation of indicative magnitude values (cf. Sibol et al., 1987; Cavallini & Rebez, 1996; Papazachos & Papaioannou, 1997) could be valuable. In the end the catalogue should then be ready to be used in further scientific studies about earthquakes in southern Germany.

In general, earthquake catalogues need to be screened for double entries and uncertain data. In Europe a lot of promising steps have already been undertaken in that direction. Further historical studies can enormously contribute to a more precise analysis of the seismic situation of a region. The cooperation with historians might prove useful as is the microfilming and scanning of historical seismograms worldwide (cf. Lee & Benson, 2008). Especially since the teleseismic instrumental recording dates back to 1889, as Stein et al. (1988) point out. And the expansion of the now existing Global Digital Network of seismic stations will support a much more reliable assessment of earthquake events in the future (cf. Beck, 1996). Especially in regions with low seismicity a data sample covering at least several centuries is highly recommended for the understanding of earthquake generating processes, even if "historical information is normally not suitable for statistical processing because its homogeneity can be rarely guaranteed" (see Kárník, 1988). A result can be a seismic risk map including all sorts of entries, as the impressive work of Tyagunov et al. (2006) shows, and catalogues that are consistent, complete and, in the best of cases, merged across political boundaries (Bayliss & Burton, 2007).

#### **11. Acknowledgment**

The authors want to thank the Bavarian Environment Agency for funding the BASE-project.

### **12. References**

14 Earthquake Research and Analysis – Seismology, Seismotectonic and Earthquake Geology

be considered fakes, especially when just mentioned by a few (or only one) sources. Only 122 earthquake epicentres in addition to the 24 events already listed in the Bavarian earthquake catalogue could be specified. Most of these events took place in either Switzerland (23%) or Austria (16%), just under 10% in the German state of Baden-Württemberg, the Czech Republic or Italy respectively. The large number of uncertain epicentres for earthquakes felt in Bavaria is nevertheless puzzling, but so is the fact that both, the German and the European catalogue, list a significant different number of German quakes with the same intensity span for the time period up to 1905. The European catalogue

In total a number of 1673 references to earthquakes in Bavaria for the time up to 1905 have been collected. For these references date, time, location, quotation, details about the earthquake itself, damages and other crucial information are listed in the data base. The exceptions are of course those earthquakes which have been extracted from maps, where no further information from within Bavaria could be found. These earthquakes are attributed to their origin outside Bavaria and are listed in the data base under the names of Bavarian

As a result, data from the BASE-project are useful with regard to several aspects (cf. Barnikel

 The data is compiled in a catalogue which in the future can be accessed by every user via internet. It is not only a valuable tool for specialists, it also helps the public

 The catalogue can be enlarged and improved by citizens, thus including more manpower in scientific research and showing the public that everybody can contribute to the betterment of science and society, as an open-source project it will be a kind of Web

 This step will produce new pieces of information from areas which have not produced earthquake reports so far. Hopefully this will help to judge the tentative records only

The data will help us to calibrate existing catalogues, especially the Bavarian catalogue,

The list of known earthquakes will be prolonged significantly and so provide a basis for

Another step, as mentioned above, will be the inclusion of (validated) contributions made by citizens all over Bavaria who share an interest in earthquakes and have access to local publications or documents which may have been denied wider distribution in journals or other scientific publications and are, therefore, largely unknown. Of course a *caveat* must be kept in mind, namely that "the tendency of some chroniclers to attract attention by

The figure of unknown earthquake-epicentres remains a problem that needs to be solved. The inclusion of data from local archives is, consequently, of utmost importance. The future presentation of the BASE-DB on the web (www.erdbeben-in-bayern.de) is an important step to reach this goal and serves as an example for other catalogues. The inclusion of the original text sources is crucial in this respect, because it allows later adjustment and

and should serve as a model for the calibration of other existing catalogues.

mentions 1019 events in Germany before 1906, the German catalogue 1821.

cities and towns on the maps.

et al. 2009):

**10. Outlook from the BASE-Project** 

understand geodynamics better.

future risk modelling.

2.0-try to link science and public (project BASE-NET).

exaggerating of manufacturing information is known" (Kárník, 1988).

based on maps or mathematic calculations so far.


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