2.1. Base information for developing the proposed models

The methodologies presented in this chapter are based on optimization models; the interested reader may refer to the following references for the theory [26–31]. The variables for developing an optimization model, applied to the active base of contributors, originated from the expected collection in the income law for the fiscal years 2015 and 2016 and the number of contributors up to the fourth quarter of 2015 and first quarter of 2016. Table 1 shows the number of contributors according to the individuals, employees, and entities categories considered in the tributary and management report [1, 2] and fiscal regimes [32–34]. Tables 2 and 3 include the collection of ISR, IVA, and IEPS.

It was important to establish within each category the ratio of participation in monetary units with respect to three classes of taxes as shown in the following tables (Tables 4 and 5):


The fiscal regimes, on the other hand, have 15 categories for each tax class, and the details are

Table 5. Participation of each category with respect to the number of contributors per tax class up to the fourth quarter of

Types of contributors ISR IVA IEPS Total Individuals 408492.31 271445.45 61694.09 741631.85 Employees 613764.83 407850.20 92696.14 1114311.17 Entities 36949.05 24552.85 5580.37 67082.28 Total 1059206.20 703848.50 159970.60 1923025.30

A Model for Estimating the Number of Taxpayer That Fullfill Mexican Income Law

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The first approach was to develop a model applicable to the fiscal year of 2016 and the previous ones. The OF will consider the constant returns per million contributors up to the fourth quarter of 2015, and this will multiply the optimized number of contributors with the three tax categories considered in the tributary and management reports. The final results are the

The initial model should be permitted to display the time evolution of the active base of contributors with respect to the three tax categories. The returns considered the total revenues of 2015 with respect to the census or active base of contributors up to the fourth quarter of 2015, and the restrictions were with respect to the previous quarter. The restrictions are the

• Active base of contributors: millions of contributors up to the fourth quarter of 2015

• Individuals: millions of active contributors according to the third quarter tributary and

• Employees: millions of contributors according to the third quarter tributary and manage-

The first restriction considers the number of contributors at the end of the financial year, i.e., at the fourth quarter of 2015; however, the rest of restrictions consider the number of contributors at the previous exercise (third quarter of 2015). This allows to obtain the optimal combination and evolution of the model and to compare it with the official information at the end of the financial year (fourth quarter). The comparison constitutes an indicator of the diversity or not of the tax burden, if there is a need to increase the number of contributors in a category of whether the active base should not be increased.

Maximize ¼ R4T2015PFτ þ R4T2015ASφ þ R4T2015PMω (1)

incomes by ISR, IVA, and IEPS included in the fiscal year of 2015 (Table 2)

3. Models for optimizing the active base of contributors per categories

considered in Section 4 along with their corresponding proposals.

3.1. Initial model

following<sup>1</sup>

1

:

management report of 2015

ment report of 2015

3.1.1. Structure and assessment

Source: Compiled by the authors.

2015 (millions of pesos).

Source: Compiled by authors with data from the tributary and management report up to the first quarter of 2016.


Table 1. Contributors according to the class reported in the tributary and management report.

Source: Compiled by authors with data from federal income law for the fiscal year of 2015 [4].

Table 2. Collection of ISR, IVA, and IEPS according to the LIF of 2015.


Source: Compiled by authors with data from the federal income law in the 2015 and 2016 fiscal years.

Table 3. Variation in the estimated collection for ISR, IVA, and IEPS (2015–2016).


Table 4. Ratio of participation in taxes (LIF 2015) per number contributors up to the fourth quarter of 2015.


Table 5. Participation of each category with respect to the number of contributors per tax class up to the fourth quarter of 2015 (millions of pesos).

The fiscal regimes, on the other hand, have 15 categories for each tax class, and the details are considered in Section 4 along with their corresponding proposals.
