**2. Materials and methods**

any change in the state of climate that is reflected in shifts in mean climatic variables over extended periods, typically decades or longer [3]. Climate change may result from natural internal processes within the climate system [4] or variations in natural or persistent anthropogenic external variability [5]. Climate results from fluctuations in the mean state or other climate statistics on temporal scales beyond those of individual weather events [6]. Climate change impacts, such as increased water shortages due to persistent droughts, present a threat to wildlife resources and consequently wildlife-dependent livelihoods in Africa. Thus, managing wildlife resources populations requires an understanding of the nature, magnitude and distribution of current and future climate impacts [7]. The term wildlife collectively refers to all forms of undomesticated flora and fauna found in terrestrial or aquatic environments [8]. In the present study, wildlife resources refer to faunal or floral species with potential benefit to human kind. Climate change has greater impacts on livelihoods of people in developing countries due to their low adaptive capacity [9]. However, this chapter focuses on terrestrial and semi-aquatic vertebrates, specifically mammals and their habitats. In Southern Africa, wildlife species promote the lives and livelihoods of local communities, particularly those living adjacent to protected areas [10]. Such communities generate revenue from activities such as eco-tourism, safari and consumptive hunting and bush meat trading. Therefore, there are huge economic losses associated with floods, droughts and wildfire. Against this backdrop, different mechanisms have been put in place to encourage climate change adapta-

2 Selected Studies in Biodiversity

tion and mitigation in the biodiversity sector at global, regional and national levels [11].

Africa, Southern Europe, Middle East, Southeast Asia and Australia [16].

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [12] projects a rise in surface temperature over the twenty-first century under all assessed emission scenarios. Global averaged temperatures are projected to increase by between 0.15 and 0.3°C per decade [13]. The frequency and intensity of heat waves are also likely to be more frequent and prolonged [14]. Many regions are likely to experience more frequent and extreme precipitation events. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [15], there is high likelihood that climate-related extremes, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones and wildfires, will expose some ecosystems, rendering them vulnerable to climate variability. Climate models project increased aridity and persistent droughts in the twenty-first century for most of

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [17], climatic changes are occurring at a faster rate than expected, particularly in Southern Africa. The IPCC predicts a 10 to 24% in mammalian species in sub-Saharan Africa national parks [13]. Climate change due to natural variability is therefore affecting terrestrial biological systems. Diffenbaugh and Field noted that there has been significant rise in temperatures of terrestrial ecosystems due to global warming [18]. Climate change directly affects ecosystems through seasonal changes in rainfall and temperature and indirectly through other disturbances such as fire and drought [11]. The IPCC [12] also notes that generally there is high confidence that several terrestrial, freshwater and marine species have shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances and species interactions in response to climate change. Based on available scientific literature, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) also reports that there is medium confidence that terrestrial ecosystems could have faced some impacts in Africa in recent decades due to climate change [12]. Additional threats from extensive land use and degradation, changes in frequency and severity of extreme events and interactions with other stresses [18] further threaten the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems. However, the This study adopted both quantitative and qualitative methods to obtain data on the effects of climate change and variability on mammalian species on selected national parks in Zimbabwe. We conducted a review existing literature (1980–2015) from peer-reviewed journal articles, books, edited book chapters, electronic academic theses, technical reports from Google Scholar, Scopus and Web of Science covering issues on climate change, climate variability and wildlife resources in Southern Africa. Data were also obtained from unpublished internal scientific reports and management plans from the Zimbabwe Parks and Wildlife Management Authority (ZPWMA) and other and external reports from policy documents related to biodiversity and climate change in Southern Africa. Technical reports and public publications from key stakeholders, such as the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and African Wildlife Foundation (AWF), were also reviewed. The following keywords or phrases were used: "climate change," "climate variability," "impacts/effects," "wildlife," "mammals," "biodiversity," "ecosystems," "drought," "rainfall," "temperature," "herbivores," "global environmental change," "plants," "flora" and "fauna" with a combination of "AND" between the keywords to retrieve the relevant literature.

Secondary data on rainfall, temperature and large mammal surveys for the period 1960–2015 were also collected from published and unpublished reports from the Zimbabwe Parks and Wildlife Management Authority. Secondary data were either adopted or used to plot graphs showing large mammal trends in relation to rainfall and temperature. Data were collected between August 2016 and February 2017. Literature obtained from all the documents was categorised under the following themes: (1) historical trends in selected mammals in relation to climate variables (1980–2015), (2) predicted and observed impacts of climate change and variability on wildlife resources in selected protected areas in Southern Africa and (3) implications for conservation. For further analysis, case studies from Zimbabwe (**Figure 1**) were used to highlight impacts of climate change on wildlife resources.

**3. Results and discussion**

game hunting activities.

This section highlights predicted and observed trends in rainfall and temperatures across Southern Africa and their implications on wildlife resources. Impacts of climate change on selected wildlife species and some of the predicted and observed impacts of climate change and variability are subsequently highlighted for selected protected areas. Implications in

Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Wildlife Resources in Southern Africa...

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.70470

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Global warming has caused a gradual reduction in annual rainfall across Africa over the past 50 years [24]. Projections of precipitation and runoff in Africa suggest a decrease of up to 10% in precipitation in most of Southern Africa (including Zimbabwe) by 2050 [28]. This reduction could reduce the distribution and availability of both food and surface water for animal species [24]. Rainfall is the main climatic factor governing herbivore population dynamics across Africa [29, 30]. African wildlife resources are therefore likely to be subjected to climate warming due to rising temperatures and extreme events, such as droughts and floods [27]. Thus, climate-induced extreme events threaten some of the large protected areas that have

The IPCC [3] predicts that Africa is projected to have 'above-average' climate change in the twenty-first century. Thus, global warming will have the greatest effects on biodiversity in the continent [32]. Chamaille-Jammes et al. [33] noted that climate change is predicted to affect both the mean annual rainfall and its seasonal distribution over the African continent. Thus, climate warming has a potential to directly affect wildlife resources through shifts in onset and duration of rainy seasons and drought on wildlife species, reduction in species distribution ranges, alteration in abundance and diversity of mammals, changes in calving and population growth rates, changes in juvenile survival of most ungulates and changes in species richness of birds and mammals [27]. Consequently, these changes in wildlife species abundance and distribution will have direct serious negative impacts on ecotourism and

Southern Africa is characterised by highly variable climatic conditions associated with fluctuating temperature and rainfall. The region is prone to frequent and intense El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, leading to widespread drought in some areas and widespread flooding in others [34]. According to the IPCC [12], mean seasonal temperatures are predicted to increase, and El Nino-Southern Oscillation effects, fires and severe weather anomalies are more likely to be more common in Southern Africa. Projections of precipitation and runoff in Africa suggest a decrease of up to 10% in precipitation in most of Southern Africa by 2050 [28]. Most of Southern Africa is prone to extreme events such as droughts and floods [35] and climate warming, which are the major climate change factors that are likely to affect wildlife resources in Southern Africa [27]. Climate can affect mammalian populations indirectly by excessive temperatures or rainfall, through bottom-up effects on food plant productivity or top-down effects on predator efficiency [36]. Bottom-up control mechanisms are based on the

view that herbivore populations are limited by forage quality and quantity [37].

terms of adaptation and mitigation for conservation are also discussed.

**3.1. Rainfall and temperature trends: implications for wildlife resources**

been designated to conserve much of Africa's magnificent biodiversity [31].

**Figure 1.** Location of the largest protected areas (used as case studies) in Zimbabwe.
