**3.5. Public attitude about the vitality of indigenous weather forecasting**

**Table 2** illustrates that only *Wake Feta* religion followers believe that the traditional weather forecasting systems are not contradictory to the belief in God and contend that God himself has given them the wisdom of weather forecasting, and, hence, they are happy to share their information. They emphasized that their herd management and other cultural activities are guided by forecast information. In general, they think that devoid of traditional weather forecasting systems and their livelihood would collapse. Muslims believe in traditional weather forecasting practices as the right way to cope with the changing weather condition. This could be the fact that Islam is old in the area and followers may not comply with the tradition. Hence, Muslims in Borana consider indigenous weather forecasting as a source of weather information. In the contrary, the traditional practices of weather forecasting are repudiated by Christians who deem it incongruent with the rules of God. For them, the traditional practices are nothing more than magic in which evil spirits are involved. Christians stick to a view that the fortune in every season is determined by God and is blasphemous to consult alternative authorities' information. Borana, which observed in Zimbabwe the expansion of Christianity religion, had a negative impact on the acceptance of indigenous weather forecast practices in the study area [10].


**Table 2.** Herders' belief on indigenous weather forecasting practices by religion.

Different indigenous weather forecasting systems have varying level of acceptance depending on their reliability [12]. This also applies to the Borana experience where the perceived reliability and acceptance of abiotic and biotic weather forecasting depends on precision of the forecasting system. Astrology-based forecasts are the most reliable indicators followed by intestine reading, animal body language, plant body language, and temperature and wind conditions (see **Table 3**). Astrological indicators also enable them to make weather forecast as long as 3 years, while other methods are effective only to make weather forecast no longer than 3 months. In Kenya weather conditions are found to be the most reliable indicators [12]. However, it should be stressed that all indigenous astrologists are not equally respected and only a person called *Kalicha Qoncher* commands high respect, possibly for his spiritual authority since the *Kalicha Qoncher* was mostly a spirit medium whom people visit for many reasons. Informants also reported that the number of indigenous astrological and *Uchuu* experts has decreased over time in their localities. Key informants and FGD participants stressed that herders are increasingly losing confidence in all methods of indigenous weather forecasting which has led to the decline in the number of *Urgii Elaltu* and *Uchuu*. The precision and popularity of indigenous weather forecasting have declined particularly for


**Table 3.** Herders' response on the most reliable traditional weather forecasting indicator.

**Religion Wrong practices against God Right practices**

the study area [10].

150 Indigenous People

**3.5. Public attitude about the vitality of indigenous weather forecasting**

**Table 2** illustrates that only *Wake Feta* religion followers believe that the traditional weather forecasting systems are not contradictory to the belief in God and contend that God himself has given them the wisdom of weather forecasting, and, hence, they are happy to share their information. They emphasized that their herd management and other cultural activities are guided by forecast information. In general, they think that devoid of traditional weather forecasting systems and their livelihood would collapse. Muslims believe in traditional weather forecasting practices as the right way to cope with the changing weather condition. This could be the fact that Islam is old in the area and followers may not comply with the tradition. Hence, Muslims in Borana consider indigenous weather forecasting as a source of weather information. In the contrary, the traditional practices of weather forecasting are repudiated by Christians who deem it incongruent with the rules of God. For them, the traditional practices are nothing more than magic in which evil spirits are involved. Christians stick to a view that the fortune in every season is determined by God and is blasphemous to consult alternative authorities' information. Borana, which observed in Zimbabwe the expansion of Christianity religion, had a negative impact on the acceptance of indigenous weather forecast practices in

**Table 2.** Herders' belief on indigenous weather forecasting practices by religion.

Wake Feta 2 1.25 157 89.75 Christian 10 100 0 0 Muslim 7 22.5 24 77.4

**No. of replies % No. of replies %**

Different indigenous weather forecasting systems have varying level of acceptance depending on their reliability [12]. This also applies to the Borana experience where the perceived reliability and acceptance of abiotic and biotic weather forecasting depends on precision of the forecasting system. Astrology-based forecasts are the most reliable indicators followed by intestine reading, animal body language, plant body language, and temperature and wind conditions (see **Table 3**). Astrological indicators also enable them to make weather forecast as long as 3 years, while other methods are effective only to make weather forecast no longer than 3 months. In Kenya weather conditions are found to be the most reliable indicators [12]. However, it should be stressed that all indigenous astrologists are not equally respected and only a person called *Kalicha Qoncher* commands high respect, possibly for his spiritual authority since the *Kalicha Qoncher* was mostly a spirit medium whom people visit for many reasons. Informants also reported that the number of indigenous astrological and *Uchuu* experts has decreased over time in their localities. Key informants and FGD participants stressed that herders are increasingly losing confidence in all methods of indigenous weather forecasting which has led to the decline in the number of *Urgii Elaltu* and *Uchuu*. The precision and popularity of indigenous weather forecasting have declined particularly for the past one decade. However, it is reported that few individuals with exceptional weather forecast skill indicate the timing and nature of rainfall more accurately. There has been a strong public reaction to the negative consequences people suffered due to the faulty indigenous weather forecasting. Most importantly, people are frequently affected when forecasting shows a normal rainy season, but drought comes without preparation. The Borana indigenous experts repeatedly failed to tell the exact timing and intensity of rainfall and drought. Since the last one decade, it is not uncommon to experience abundant rainfall while the forecast indicated drought and vice versa. They also said that there are occasions when they do not receive rainfall although they could see clouds. The people are usually caught unprepared in situations when the weather forecast shows normal rainy seasonal, while the actual weather condition turned out to be drought.

The decline in accuracy of indigenous weather forecasting systems, reported by informants above, is also corroborated by comparative historical analysis. Comparisons of the forecasting made over the last 27 years using all modes of indigenous weather forecasting were compared with Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as an indicator. For the purpose of comparison, the instrumental record was computed using Standardized Precipitation Index where results below zero were taken to represent a condition of drought. Besides the inconsistency of forecasts within different modes of indigenous weather forecasting systems, glaring discrepancy exists with the actual instrumental record. For instance, there is about 79% mismatch within the four main types of indigenous weather forecasting systems which means that in most cases herders received contradictory weather forecasts. The degree of mismatch between the forecasts of indigenous experts on the one hand and instrumental records on the other is about 60% (see **Table 4**). Even in the case of astrology-based weather forecast, which is believed by the people as the most reliable indicator, the degree of mismatch with instrumental records is 50% which means that no system of indigenous weather forecasting is reliable enough as to advise herders to base their decision on indigenous weather forecasts. What accounts for the decreasing vitality of indigenous weather forecast systems?

Given that plants and animals naturally undergo behavioral transformation parallel with the global weather change, it is highly possible that indigenous experts may not be able to observe body languages and behaviors that had been used hitherto. In the absence of the commonly



**Year**

**Astrology**

**No. of** 

**%**

**No. of** 

**%**

**No. of** 

**%**

**No. of** 

**%**

**SPA**

**Drought level**

**Mach/**

**Mach/**

**Mach/**

152 Indigenous People

**mismatch**

**mismatch**

**mismatch**

**replies**

**replies**

**replies**

**replies**

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

6

3

32

16

178

89

137

69

0.44

Normal

\*

\*\*\*\*

X

164

82

121

61

50

25

150

75

0

Normal

\*\*

\*\*\*\*

X

11

5.5

8

4

11

5.5

11

5.5

−0.2

Mild

\*\*

\*\*\*

XX

22

11

53

27

15

7.5

100

50

−0.7

Mild

\*\*

\*\*\*\*

XX

7

3.5

158

79

173

87

83

42

−0.5

Mild

\*\*

\*\*\*\*

XX

182

91

38

19

22

11

77

39

−1

Moderate

\*\*

\*\*\*\*

X

11

5.5

52

26

26

13

24

12

−1.6

Moderate

\*\*

\*\*\*

XX

150

75

63

32

33

17

102

51

−0.6

Normal

\*\*

\*\*\*\*

X

17

8.5

81

41

41

21

29

15

1.37

Normal

\*

\*\*\*

X

178

89

109

55

45

23

166

83

−0.3

Mild

\*\*

\*\*\*\*

X

13

6.5

72

36

22

11

18

9

−0.8

Mild

\*\*

\*\*\*

XX

190

95

119

60

33

17

186

93

−1.7

Extreme

\*\*

\*\*\*\*

X

23

12

65

33

37

19

32

16

0.08

Normal

\*

\*\*\*

X

129

65

123

62

168

84

170

85

0.23

Normal

\*\*

\*\*\*\*

XX

144

72

124

62

150

75

164

82

−1.2

Moderate

\*\*

\*\*\*

X

16

8

51

26

39

20

27

14

0.35

Normal

\*

\*\*\*

X

161

81

51

26

36

18

103

52

1.22

Normal

\*\*

\*\*\*\*

XX

173

87

42

21

25

13

86

43

1.14

Normal

\*\*

\*\*\*\*

XX

85

43

74

37

58

29

93

47

1.01

Normal

\*

\*\*\*

X

6

3

134

67

169

85

23

12

1.59

Normal

\*\*

\*\*\*\*

X

15

7.5

51

26

23

12

19

9.5

0.42

Normal

\*

\*\*\*

X

**Intestinal**

**Plant body language**

**Animal body** 

**Standardized** 

**Count of match and mismatch** 

**between different forecasts**

**precipitation anomalies**

**language**

used signs, indigenous weather forecasters can hazard misinterpretation. Hence, indigenous experts are unable to update their science in view of changed environmental and ecological conditions that directly impact the stimulus-reaction pattern displayed for ages. On the other hand, it is very difficult to excuse the ever dwindling efficiency of astrology-based forecasts since the movement of celestial bodies and their constellations hardly change over brief span of time. Two possible explanations may be forwarded. First, in the past, the occurrence of drought had a more or less regular pattern, recurring once in a decade. Working on understanding of the observed regular pattern of the occurrence of drought might have deluded indigenous astrologists as having been correct in their forecasts. In recent years, however, global weather change has considerably distorted the old pattern of climate conditions with the effect that the forecasts of astrologists would not match with the reality. This means that from the outset, the knowledge claims of astrologists are found on pseudo-epistemology. This seems to be the reason for the failure/unwillingness of astrologist to explain why they read and interpret certain celestial alignments and constellations the way they do.

Secondly, the younger generation seems to have lacked fascination with the wisdom of forefathers, thereby undermining curiosity to learn the difficult technique of weather forecasting. As pointed out above, the expansion of alien ideas through education and monotheistic religions would stand negatively to the prestige and acceptability of indigenous experts, thereby inducing them to shy away from their indigenous practice. The bottom line is that people are no longer ready to seriously subscribe to indigenous forecasts. It would be impudent to argue that people should abandon their tradition at a time when science cannot provide a viable substitute. The best suggestion seems that indigenous experts should disclose their secrets to scientists so that a hybrid of climate forecasting system could be designed in ways that would make consideration of new biologist and animist signs as valid indicators of future weather phenomenon. It should not be difficult for indigenous experts to disclose their secrets as it would not represent any material lose since they are not paid for their service in the first place. They should be convinced that harmonious blend of indigenous and innovation has been inalienable prerequisites for survival and prosperity, as the history of human civilization attests.

#### **3.6. Socioeconomic preparations in view of expected drought**

Indigenous knowledge-based weather forecasting is the main source of weather information in Borana where access to modern weather information is limited. In Borana weather forecast is disseminated using well-organized cultural network. In view of drought forecast, herders take different preparations: they stop sawing crops for a while, strengthening enclosure through community bylaw, saving water and grass, preparing livestock medicine, storing hay, migrating with animals, destocking, and changing schedules of social and cultural festivities such as wedding. In Borana, indigenous weather forecasting is becoming unreliable, and herders were victimized by incorrect prediction. However, still herders prefer indigenous weather forecast information than modern forecast information. They were reluctant to heed development agents' advice about modern weather information. This shows that integration of herders' skill and knowledge with the modern weather forecasting system and dissemination should be a topical issue.

Migrating with animals where water and pasture are available areas is widely practiced as a coping strategy to drought. However, in the event of seasonal migration caused by drought, people suffer from many problems. There is a high risk of attack on cattle by wild animals, and many incidents of cattle raiding occur that would lead to conflict. They may be exposed to conflict over water and pasture. En route, they have to endure the effects of cold and hot temperature due to problems of shelter which exposes them to health risks such as diarrhea and malaria and other animal contagious diseases that mainly affect the foot and mouths of cattle. Socioeconomic complications breed clan conflict that may lead to the loss of human and animal lives. People often find it difficult to maintain contact with their family members who stay behind and suffer from extreme food shortage. Sustaining the livestock resources in drought times requires heavy workload since owners need to treat their ailing cattle extensively which among other things requires fetching water from long distances, cutting and carrying cattle feed, etc. These complications in turn lead to school dropout for children and inability to fulfill basic needs such as clothing for the family.
