3. Labor market and demography

about 3% [6], and in the future, thanks to the contribution of the infamous therapeutic interruption of pregnancy [7], it might fall very easily below 0.3–0.4%, reducing by hundred times

The great economic crisis of the Western world, which started at the beginning of the 1970s, constitutes actually the divide between an old and a new world, in which the powerful and extraordinary parameter of post-bellum development has to come to terms with a new world

Perhaps, for the first time, after the feast of progress and indiscriminate growth of the post-Second World War, the Western world is forced to come to terms with a new incumbent danger that hits it: the great oil crisis. This is a crisis, far from being just a purely economic one; in fact, it entails a reconsideration of the entire developed world, calling into question

To this situation, dramatic to some extent, countries react with a structural change which also involves the most basic units of social life, such as the family, featuring its new roles, its

It is at this point that takes shape in Italy the era of Low-Low Fertility [8], a time in which the level of fertility of Italian women reaches values which will not be in a position to ensure the replacement of generations (but similar events were experienced in France, Germany, and

The number of annual births in Italy precipitates from 1,016,000 births in 1964 to around 500,000 since the 1980s, inexorably sealing the fate of the Italian population in terms of both the reproductive capacity and the age structure, which is bound to have a lot of old people

Profound behavioral changes in the population, especially those quantitative ones, with respect to the demographic events, have an impact at easily recognizable intervals on the dynamic of labor market entry and exit, respectively, after 20 years in the case of entry and

This simple consideration opens new scenarios of the labor market: if it is true that in the 1960s there were births double those in the 1990s, roughly a quarter of a century later, these births (which, among other things, took place in the living boom era) will present themselves at the entrance of the world of work. Situation will be more regrettable when more or less after 30–35 years from this circumstance, these same generations will approach the exit threshold of the world of work, especially because the next generations born in the era of low-low fertility will

This will highlight, in a short time, an irreversible condition: the number of people in exit will exceed by far that in entry into the labor market suffocated by the level of unemployment which these first five years of global economic crisis highlighted in a stringent

the impact of mortality on the survival of the younger generations.

priorities and needs of the entire modern world.

structure, and especially its composition.

the Scandinavian countries).

beyond any imagination.

way.

after 60 years in the case of exit.

not be so large as to ensure the replacement of those in exit.

order.

20 Advances in Health Management

To evaluate the possible scenario for the next generations, in terms of world of work and employment recovery, a comparison between the generations of people willing to enter the labor market and those willing to exit from it was made to analyze what might happen in the near future as a result of the demographic changes that have characterized the Italian socioeconomic life after the Second World War.

To estimate the quantitative effects of the baby boom and low-low fertility on the population, two age groups temporarily willing to turnover were chosen, and a possible future scenario was built projecting the population data.

From the methodological point of view, the age groups relevant to this examination are that of 20–30 years willing to enter the labor market and that of 60–70 years willing to exit from it.

Then, a projection of the Italian population was made with the classic method, using as initial data the population enrolled in the registry office in 2016, the mortality table of 2012, the series of specific quotients of fertility by age of 2011.

The data used were derived from the official source (ISTAT) and were chosen because these were the most currently available in their specific nature, emphasizing that we are making hypothesis on evolutionary scenarios and approximations.

Also available are excellent forecasts built with self-modeling regression and moving average model (ARMA and ARIMA). Even though such models are precise and effective, these results, being available only in an aggregate form compared to the initial data, do not allow us to isolate the various components in order to assess the influence of any politico-social choice that

Figure 2. Live births in Italy, 1926–2015. Source: our elaboration on ISTAT's data, warehouse, 2017.

should be taken in the near future. In essence, therefore, the possibility to isolate the components of natality, mortality, and migration in the elaboration of projections allows us to make more probable assumptions about the future of the population itself.

Table 1 and Figure 2 show the evolution of the number of births between the first quarter of the last century and the present day. Table 1 highlights the specific trend of the natality level, which affected and still continues to affect the social life in Italy.

Until the Second World War, the birth level was still maintained high in values consistently above the million births per year, with inevitable fluctuations due, in large part, to the approaching of the great crisis that would lead to disastrous conflict.

In any case, the last conflict represented a sort of "threshold value," a kind of divide between the old and the new world, also from the behavioral point of view in relation to the demographic events and to the reproductive process in particular.

In addition, the years after the Great War are also the years in which the reconstruction begins: Italy laboriously starts to develop and this goes at the same rate with great (demographic) achievements such as the sudden collapse of infant mortality.
