**8. Conclusion**

education moved into vocational). This assumption is in line with the general tendency in the educational structure of the Czech population over time, where secondary education is expanding for males. Because the vocational education group of males is relatively large, we can expect that the resulting effect on temporary life expectancy will be higher than in the Scenario 2 (without modification). Of course, for females, the results will be the same based on Scenario 2 or Scenario 2 modified. The results are shown in **Figure 7**. As it was assumed, the shift of high proportion of the male population with vocational education toward secondary (Scenario 2 modified) had a more significant impact on the rise of the temporary life expectancy between ages 30 and 80—it increased from the initial value of 42.7 to 43.3 years. Based on the Scenario 2 or Scenario 2 modified, it is possible to expect a future growth of the life expectancy caused (among others) by the ongoing changes of population education structure. The improving education structure of the population could lead

**Figure 7.** Temporary life expectancy between ages 30 and 80 for males and females, Scenarios 1, 2 (without and with

modification), and 3.

152 Senescence - Physiology or Pathology

to an increase in the temporary life expectancy between ages 30 and 80 by nearly a year.

The results based on the Scenario 3 (shifting death rates toward higher education category) were to be the most optimistic ones, especially for males. In the case of females, lower mortality of women with basic education compared to their vocational counterparts can produce a contradictory effect and thus reduce the growth of temporary life expectancy. The general shift in the education structure toward higher levels is likely and is consistent with the ongoing education development in the Czech Republic. From the results (see **Figure 7**), it is seen that initial hypotheses were correct. The estimated outputs (hypothetical temporary life expectancies) are clearly more favorable in case of males (gain of In recent years, the population of the Czech Republic experienced two important phenomena: increase in the share of higher educated people and a significant decline in mortality at adult ages. The impact of changing education structure (in population as well as in rates) can be especially influential due to large disparities in survival according to educational attainment in the Czech Republic. Because these differences are among the largest in Europe, further studies of related factors are needed. Scientific understanding of determinants of educational differences of adult mortality has increased substantially over the past few decades in developed countries. Some striking phenomena have been identified: (a) educational differences in mortality rates have widened over the past several decades despite a dramatic progression of life expectancy, (b) mortality inequalities by education among women are rising over time ant thus approaching male patterns, and (c) regional differences in mortality by education are more pronounced when comparing with national patterns.

In our contribution, the main goal was to model the potential development in mortality under the various conditions addressing the education shift in the society. Based on the scenarios and their assumptions, the changes in temporary life expectancy between ages 30 and 80 were estimated. The results have shown that a decrease of the proportion of the population with the lowest education would lead to only a small increase in temporary life expectancy. On the other hand, decreasing education specific death rates have a larger impact on aggregate mortality indicators. However, it has to be kept in mind that even a small sub‐group of the population matters and is worth considering when looking at the overall mortality level.
