**6. Model scenarios: shifting population or death rates by education**

As was described in previous parts of the chapter, mortality in the Czech Republic is significantly different according to various levels of education. The aim of the following analysis was to transform the possible future changes of the education population structure or mortality rates into potential changes in temporary life expectancy. There are three different model scenarios defined with the purpose to illustrate the theoretically possible impacts on overall mortality caused by the changes in the education structure.

#### **6.1. Scenario 1**

The first model scenario could be indicated as a reference model. In this model, we suppose the education, gender, and age structures to remain unchanged. The population structure by education, gender, and age is that from the census 2011 (adjusted for January 1, 2011) and deaths rates those observed in the period 2009–2012. The population structure is graphically expressed by the population pyramid in **Figure 4** and mortality rates by education in **Figure 3a** and **b**.

The education structure from the 2011 census is characterized by a large proportion of people with only basic education at higher ages, especially for females. For males at the highest age groups, the proportion of basic education was only around 18% (in comparison to the proportion for females at the highest ages, which was almost 50%). At the youngest ages, the proportion of people with basic education decreased to only 7% for both the sexes. The largest proportion of males reached the vocational education (40–50% and this proportion is nearly invariant also at lower ages, except the youngest age group). For females, the vocational education was the second of importance at ages 65 and older. Women aged 30–49 most frequently had the secondary education. Moreover, for females, the proportion of basic education rapidly decreased from the highest age groups to the youngest ones and the proportion of secondary and university graduates increased with decreasing age. For males, almost the same trends can be depicted (see **Figure 4**).

#### **6.2. Scenario 2**

population pyramid, many important differences could be pointed out. There is a clear increase in the proportion of the population with tertiary education with decreasing age. In the youngest age groups, the proportion of tertiary educated reached 22% for females and 18% for males. On the other side, with increasing age, the proportion of the population with only basic education rises, especially for females. At the highest age group (75–79 years), almost 50% of females had only basic education. In the case of males, the proportion was significantly lower—less than 20% at the oldest age groups and around 10% for the middle ages, and for the youngest age groups, the proportion was even lower. The most common education level for males is the vocational one (almost 50%

**Figure 4.** Czech Republic, population structure by gender, age, and education from the census 2011, ages 30–79 years.

**6. Model scenarios: shifting population or death rates by education**

mortality caused by the changes in the education structure.

As was described in previous parts of the chapter, mortality in the Czech Republic is significantly different according to various levels of education. The aim of the following analysis was to transform the possible future changes of the education population structure or mortality rates into potential changes in temporary life expectancy. There are three different model scenarios defined with the purpose to illustrate the theoretically possible impacts on overall

share).

148 Senescence - Physiology or Pathology

The second model scenario is characterized by only changes among people with the lowest levels of education. In this scenario, we suppose that 60% of males with only basic education will be moved into the higher category—vocational education. This assumption, in fact, reflects the decrease in the proportion of basic education with decreasing age as well as the high importance of vocational education among males.

For females, we suppose that 60% of females with basic and vocational education will move into the secondary education. Also, in this case, the reason for this assumption could be found in the decrease of the proportion of basic education with decreasing age and moreover the significant increase of the proportion of females with secondary education.

The modeled education structure corresponding with the Scenario 2 is illustrated by the population pyramid in **Figure 5**. According to this model scenario, the proportion of basic education nearly diminishes. On the other side, the proportion of vocational education for males would significantly increase together with the share of secondary education for females would significantly increase. It could be hypothesized that especially for females, this shift in educational structure could have a significant effect on the overall mortality level because the mortality rates of secondary education are visibly lower in comparison to basic and vocational education (see **Figure 3b**). Also in case of males, the effect of modeled changes in education attainment could be expected in order to lower overall mortality, however, not as significant as for females because the modeled change affects only the proportion of basic education which was low already in the real population (see the model Scenario 1).

**Figure 5.** Population structure by gender, age, and education in the model Scenario 2, population aged 30–79 years.

#### **6.3. Scenario 3**

The last model scenario modifies all death rates by education while preserving population structure by education. In this model, we suppose shifts in sex age education‐specific mortality rates upwards by one level (basic = vocational, vocational = secondary, secondary = university, new university = 0.80\*university). The assumptions of this scenario are consistent with recent rapid changes in the educational structure of the Czech Republic, with a significant shift toward higher education levels. The proposed changes are supposed to impact overall mortality, above all in the case of males. The modeled shift according to this third scenario would lead to significant male mortality improvements due to their clear education gradient. The effect of change could be rather contradictory for females because women with vocational education experience slightly higher mortality compared to those with basic attainment (the above‐mentioned anomaly in female mortality gradient by education, see **Figure 3b**). The shift from vocational education to secondary as well as changes connected with shifts toward university education would lower mortality levels for both genders.
