**7. Impact of education shifts on temporary life expectancy**

The above‐defined model scenarios of education shifts were further applied when calculating temporary life expectancies. Temporary life expectancies between exact ages 30 and 80 according to education attainment and based on Scenario 1 (no shifts) are presented in **Figure 6**.

Potential Reduction in Mortality Associated with the Shifts of Population Educational Structures ... http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.69635 151

**Figure 6.** Temporary life expectancy for males and females between ages 30 and 80, Scenario 1, Scenario 2, Scenario 2 modified, and Scenario 3.

**6.3. Scenario 3**

150 Senescence - Physiology or Pathology

would lower mortality levels for both genders.

**7. Impact of education shifts on temporary life expectancy**

The last model scenario modifies all death rates by education while preserving population structure by education. In this model, we suppose shifts in sex age education‐specific mortality rates upwards by one level (basic = vocational, vocational = secondary, secondary = university, new university = 0.80\*university). The assumptions of this scenario are consistent with recent rapid changes in the educational structure of the Czech Republic, with a significant shift toward higher education levels. The proposed changes are supposed to impact overall mortality, above all in the case of males. The modeled shift according to this third scenario would lead to significant male mortality improvements due to their clear education gradient. The effect of change could be rather contradictory for females because women with vocational education experience slightly higher mortality compared to those with basic attainment (the above‐mentioned anomaly in female mortality gradient by education, see **Figure 3b**). The shift from vocational education to secondary as well as changes connected with shifts toward university education

**Figure 5.** Population structure by gender, age, and education in the model Scenario 2, population aged 30–79 years.

The above‐defined model scenarios of education shifts were further applied when calculating temporary life expectancies. Temporary life expectancies between exact ages 30 and 80 according to education attainment and based on Scenario 1 (no shifts) are presented in **Figure 6**.

The most significant differences between males and females are visible for the basic level of education—for males this level of education is clearly the less favorable (**Figure 6**). However, females with basic education show longer temporary life expectancy (45.7 years) compared to those having a vocational degree (44.0 years). The total temporary life expectancy from age 30 to 80 was 42.7 years for males and 46.2 years for females.

According to the Scenario 2, the population of the least educated (basic) males was reduced and the majority of them (60%) moved into the higher educated (vocational) group. About 60% of females with basic and vocational education was moved into the secondary education. The effect of lowering mortality, based on temporary life expectancy, was significant only for females due to a large decrease in the share of women with basic and vocational education moved into the secondary degree. Consequently, the total female temporary life expectancy increased (47.1–46.2 = 0.9) by almost a year (**Figures 6** and **7**). For males, the effect of the shift in educational population structure was negligible—the temporary life expectancy increased by only 0.1 years (42.8–42.7 = 0.1). The reasons were already stated, the proposed change in population educational structure (from basic into vocational) involved only a relatively small group of males. Therefore, a modified Scenario 2 was elaborated for males.

Modification of the Scenario 2 only consists in another shifting of the male population structure by education (females movement is the same as in Scenario 2). According to the modified Scenario 2, 60% of males with vocational education was moved toward secondary education (60% with basic

**Figure 7.** Temporary life expectancy between ages 30 and 80 for males and females, Scenarios 1, 2 (without and with modification), and 3.

education moved into vocational). This assumption is in line with the general tendency in the educational structure of the Czech population over time, where secondary education is expanding for males. Because the vocational education group of males is relatively large, we can expect that the resulting effect on temporary life expectancy will be higher than in the Scenario 2 (without modification). Of course, for females, the results will be the same based on Scenario 2 or Scenario 2 modified. The results are shown in **Figure 7**. As it was assumed, the shift of high proportion of the male population with vocational education toward secondary (Scenario 2 modified) had a more significant impact on the rise of the temporary life expectancy between ages 30 and 80—it increased from the initial value of 42.7 to 43.3 years. Based on the Scenario 2 or Scenario 2 modified, it is possible to expect a future growth of the life expectancy caused (among others) by the ongoing changes of population education structure. The improving education structure of the population could lead to an increase in the temporary life expectancy between ages 30 and 80 by nearly a year.

The results based on the Scenario 3 (shifting death rates toward higher education category) were to be the most optimistic ones, especially for males. In the case of females, lower mortality of women with basic education compared to their vocational counterparts can produce a contradictory effect and thus reduce the growth of temporary life expectancy. The general shift in the education structure toward higher levels is likely and is consistent with the ongoing education development in the Czech Republic. From the results (see **Figure 7**), it is seen that initial hypotheses were correct. The estimated outputs (hypothetical temporary life expectancies) are clearly more favorable in case of males (gain of 45.2–42.7 = 2.5 years) in comparison with females (gain of 47.1–46.2 = 0.9 years). The male advantage is closely connected to the shifts of high mortality education categories (basic or vocational) toward much favorable survival experienced by men having a secondary or a university degree. Females show a less pronounced gradient in mortality by education, and therefore, mortality reduction is rather modest. Such a trend is in line with findings in other countries [9, 15].

The complete disappearance of the most unfavorable group of males (with only basic education) or females having a basic or vocational education is unlikely. Therefore, future mortality decline will be primarily driven by lowering sex age education‐specific mortality rates. It is the field of health and social policies on one side and personal responsibility for one's own health and for successfully functioning in a society on the other side.
