**6. Future context for the Argentine soybean chain**

At an international level, it is considered that soybean prices will keep growing. This conclusion is drawn from the soybean world market indicators (supply, demand, stock, consumption) and ratified by the wider expansion of the world demand regarding the supply. If finantial speculation is added, the positive trend towards rising prices gets stronger. This conclusion is drawn after an analysis of the following factors (USDA, 2010):


It is expected that the good crop perspectives determine that the area planted remains and/ or increases, depending onthe economic perspectives of other summer crops, specially corn.

In Argentina, it is expected that in the short–medium term the discontinuous purchase of soybean oil will continue to be done by China due to the commercial barriers implemented by the government of Argentina and China, except that an agreement between both countries is reached. This has caused that the oil exports go to other countries which buy this oil at a lower price40. So, the Argentine oil industry -which is one of the most efficient in the world– gets lower prices and, furthermore, works under its milling capacity.

At a national level and at the primary production link, there have been and there are conflicts between the soybean protagonists (soybean producers, agrochemical companies, commercial companies; etc) and different groups that question this "soybean production system", in Argentina41. Among those who question this "soybean production system", it can be mention the small and medium farmers, aborigine communities and countryside workers expelled by the spreading of soybean sowing. At the same time large company

<sup>40</sup> The argentine soybean oil quotation suffered a discount with respect to other markets like the Brazilian one of up to U\$D 75.5 per ton (average of U\$D 50 per ton). These figures affect the almost 6 million soybean oil tons that Argentina would export in the current season

<sup>41</sup> In the mid 70s and with the use of new varieties, the sowing of two annual crops (doble –sowing) was possible. These crops are combined with the wheat production (short cycle wheat) and therefore the double crop wheat-soybean appears. This process originated a larger agricultural process (cattle is left aside) but soybean also leaves aside crops like corn and sorghum

groups42 are consolidated and thus finance great scale farming and livestock directed by contractors who rent the fields.

Also among those that question the advance of soybean production there are some professionals and environmentalists who show the farming effects as regards the distribution of the productive and environmental resources. Some of these concerns are:


Thus, there is a scenery of progressive conflict, where soybean excellent prices are signals for producers to continue with the expansion of soybean, and for other social groups (small farmers, environmentalists, professionals, etc.) to press because of the environmental and social consequences of this expansion.
