**4. Conclusion**

This chapter approached the importance of using climate forecasts to etimative of agricultural productivity and presented case studies of soybean productivity estimative, evaluating the possible contribution this type of information.

Was verified that in general the precipitation climate forecasts contribution to the improvement of estimated soybean productivity, primarily in periods when the crop is more sensitive to water deficit. For this period is important that the category of forecast precipitation be the same of observed precipitation. Thus, to achieve a gain by the use of climate forecast is necessary to know the skill of climate model used, preferring to apply this type of information in periods of greater reliability.

The improvement of estimated soybean productivity may give a contribution to agribusiness sector, in order to turn more realistic expectations available and assist on the strategic planning. This demonstrates the importance develop research that aim at better understanding the potential use of climate forecasts to estimate agricultural productivity, over the globe.

Fig. 3. Values of the total estimated productivity of soybean in Passo Fundo, 2006/2007 harvest, from the data observed throughout the cycle period (black dotted line) and from the series composed respectively by observation-climatology (black line) and observationforecast-climatology (circles). It is highlighted that these composed series contain observed precipitation values from the first cycle day in different periods (extended at each 1 day). This also includes the value of the verified productivity (black thick line) published by the

This chapter approached the importance of using climate forecasts to etimative of agricultural productivity and presented case studies of soybean productivity estimative,

Was verified that in general the precipitation climate forecasts contribution to the improvement of estimated soybean productivity, primarily in periods when the crop is more sensitive to water deficit. For this period is important that the category of forecast precipitation be the same of observed precipitation. Thus, to achieve a gain by the use of climate forecast is necessary to know the skill of climate model used, preferring to apply this

The improvement of estimated soybean productivity may give a contribution to agribusiness sector, in order to turn more realistic expectations available and assist on the strategic planning. This demonstrates the importance develop research that aim at better understanding the potential use of climate forecasts to estimate agricultural productivity,

evaluating the possible contribution this type of information.

type of information in periods of greater reliability.

IBGE.

**4. Conclusion** 

over the globe.

Fig. 4. Values of the total estimated productivity of soybean in Passo Fundo, 2007/2008 harvest, from the data observed throughout the cycle period (black dotted line) and from the series composed respectively by observation-climatology (black line) and observationforecast-climatology (circles). It is highlighted that these composed series contain observed precipitation values from the first cycle day in different periods (extended at each 1 day). This also includes the value of the verified productivity (black thick line) published by the IBGE.

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