**6. Conclusion**

Europe is so far highly dependent on protein importations for compound feedstuffs production particularly of soy for young animal production, poultry and pigs. However, several factors may lead to an increased soybean production in the EU over the next decade. Among the several reasons for such an increase are societal considerations such as carbon footprint of imported soybean, development of market niches - be these or not GMO-free due to animal labeling - entrance of new EU-MS with a past of soybean cropping as well as a general increase of American exports toward China inducing tensions on prices particularly for poultry and pig feeding.

Soybean cropping would however probably be considered as an opportunistic European crop due to e.g. rotation for fighting corn rootworm which is prevalent in Central and Eastern EU and extending into the Western area, continuous rises in nitrogen fertilizer prices, a persistent ban of meat-and-bones meal as well as an absence of alternative European protein-rich crops.

very competitive commodities market. But all occasions can be taken to improve their niche

With the growing trend to label animals reared on non-GM feed, availability of non-GM soy is of a growing interest for livestock producers. With the increased cropping of GM soy in exporting countries, alternative sources of non-GM soy are thus actively looked for by

Since the 2008 issue of Chinese organic soy meal spiked with melamine, The Peoples' Republic of China is no longer considered as a reliable source of non-GM soy despite recent claims of its interest for this country (Anonymous, 2010; Hansen et al., 2007; Takada, 2010). China is the most important importer of soybean and this expected to continue (Taylor and Koo, 2010). As numerous GM crops are under development in China together with a growing request of soy for livestock production, we may expect this country may rapidly cease to be a putative exporter of non-GM soybean. Indeed, India is currently a new source of non-GM soy for certain European traders and has been identified as such by US surveys

This current relative shortage of non-GM (<0.9%) or GMO-free (<0.1%) soybean could be an opportunity for European soy producers, provided they find more incentives to grow soy. The new CAP trend considering more environmental issues might favor such changes into the European farmers practices. Integrating crops rotations with leguminous crops, for decreasing the use of costly fertilizers and fighting some pests such as the expending Western corn root worm, would be additional causes of such practices' changes with

Beside a new consideration of soybean into crop rotation in Western EU or an increase of soy surfaces in EU-MS cultivating soy for market niches, the European soy status may also change by the integration in 2007 of Central and Eastern European countries such as Romania with a past and a future wish of soybean cultivation. The move of these countries, some cases having very large corporate farms, toward GM or non-GM soy cultivation will greatly depend on non-GM demand, premiums and long-term contracts as well as the

Europe is so far highly dependent on protein importations for compound feedstuffs production particularly of soy for young animal production, poultry and pigs. However, several factors may lead to an increased soybean production in the EU over the next decade. Among the several reasons for such an increase are societal considerations such as carbon footprint of imported soybean, development of market niches - be these or not GMO-free due to animal labeling - entrance of new EU-MS with a past of soybean cropping as well as a general increase of American exports toward China inducing tensions on prices particularly

Soybean cropping would however probably be considered as an opportunistic European crop due to e.g. rotation for fighting corn rootworm which is prevalent in Central and Eastern EU and extending into the Western area, continuous rises in nitrogen fertilizer prices, a persistent ban of meat-and-bones meal as well as an absence of alternative

premiums and long-term contracts for non-GM productions,.

volatility of GM soy commodities' prices.

markets of soy be this GM or non-GM. **5.4.2.2 Alternative sources of non-GM soy** 

European importers.

(Ash, 2011).

**6. Conclusion** 

for poultry and pig feeding.

European protein-rich crops.

As the cultivations are rapidly adjusted to the market requests, there is thus not an issue of soybean supply *per se* but an issue of importation of soybean at the lowest prices for intensive livestock production. Such issue of competitiveness of European livestock drove the EC to introduce a "technical solution" to EU unapproved GMOs, i.e. a LLP threshold, for feed, which might impact food supply chains since segregating of food and feed is difficult.

At the same time, the need for a larger use of bio-fuels increased the production of oilseed rape in Europe which in counterpart decreased the imports of soybeans. It is currently difficult to determine what would be the future of such by-products of bio-fuels as the European policy bio-fuels appears to be changing due to new calculations of their carbon footprint and the need for "feeding the world". Such trend to develop domestic bio-fuels will probably impact European soy imports and cultivations.

After several shortages in the 1970s and 2000s, the current increases in feed and food commodities' prices after the 2007-2008 food crisis militates for an European alimentary sovereignty due in particular to the impact of the increasing living standards of emerging countries and thus of protein-rich feedstuffs.

Environmental, sustainability and social criteria newly incorporated into the European agricultural aids frame will probably push domestic oilseed production, including soybean and jeopardize oilseeds imports. The main driver of European livestock production and soy imports will also depend on the possible extension among EU-MS of the labeling of animals reared with GMO-free feed.

By the different past histories of Western and Eastern parts of the EU-27, it is also to be expected that the soy cropping strategies, i.e. the choice between GM and non-GM soy cultivation, will differ between the two. The lowest sensitivity of Eastern consumers to GM food and cultivation could facilitate the implementation of GM soy in the Eastern part of the EU, while non-GM soy might develop in the Western part of the EU. Such search for a European "sovereignty" is in line with the development of numerous markets niches, a usual counterpart to a more and more standardized and global trade.

Generally speaking, the recent initiative of the EC for establishing a LLP threshold for feed did not take into consideration the change of paradigm i.e. the European move from an "economy of offer" toward an "economy of demand" nor the difficulties to segregate food and feed commodities.
