**7.4. The future of phosphate rocks**

The biochemist and sci-fi author IZAAK ASIMOV said [60]: "In the future coal will be probably substituted by nuclear energy, wood by plastics, meat by yeast and suspecting solitude by friendship, but there is no substitute for phosphorus."

The search for phosphate rock deposits became a global effort in the 20th century as the demand for phosphate rocks increased. The development of deposits further intensified in the 1950s and 1960s. The world production reached its peak in 1987 – 1988 and then again in 2008 with over 160 million metric tons (mmt) of the product. Phosphate rock mining has evolved over time, and worldwide, it relies on high volume and advanced technology using mainly open-pit mining methods and advanced transportation systems to move hundreds of millions of tons of overburden to produce hundreds of millions of tons of ore, which are beneficiated to produce approximately 160 mmt of phosphate rock concentrate per year. The concentrate of suitable grade and chemical quality is then used to produce phosphoric acid, the basis of many fertilizer and non-fertilizer products [23]. The world phosphate produc‐ tion rate since 1850 according to JASINSKI [109] and ABOUZEID et al [20] is shown in **Fig. 15**.

The estimates of the world's phosphate reserves and availability of exploitable deposits vary greatly and the assessments of how long it will take until these reserves are exhausted vary also considerably. Furthermore, it is commonly recognized that the high-quality reserves are being depleted expeditiously and that the prevailing management of phosphate, a finite nonrenewable source, is not fully in accordance with the principles of sustainability. The deple‐ tion of current economically exploitable reserves is estimated to be completed in some 60 to 130 years. Using the median reserve estimates and under reasonable predictions, it appears that phosphate reserves would last for at least 100+ years [20].

**Fig. 15.** World phosphate production rate [20].

Martian surface rocks have thus resided in the planet's surficial systems since at least 4 Ga and may have been degassed from the planet's interior during the primordial crust-forming event. In comparison to the Earth and Mars, the Moon, and possibly the eucrite parent body too, appear to be strongly depleted not only in H2O but also in Cl2 relative to H2O. The chlorine depletion is the strongest in mare basalts, perhaps reflecting an eruptive process characteris‐

Mars does not recycle crustal materials via the plate tectonics. For this reason, the magmatic water reservoir of the Martian mantle has not been affected by the surface processes, and the deuterium/hydrogen (D/H) ratio of this water should represent the original primordial Martian value. Following this logic, hydrous primary igneous minerals on the Martian surface should also carry this primordial D/H ratio, assuming no assimilation of Martian atmospher‐ ic water during the crystallization and no major hydrogen fractionation during the melt degassing. Hydrous primary igneous minerals, such as apatite and amphibole, are present in Martian meteorites here on Earth. Provided these minerals have not been affected by terres‐ trial weathering, Martian atmospheric water or shock processes after the crystallization, they should contain a good approximation of the primordial Martian D/H ratio. As Nakhla was seen to fall on the Egyptian desert in 1911, the terrestrial contamination is minimized in this meteorite. The nakhlites are also among the least shocked Martian meteorites. Therefore, apatite within Nakhla could contain primordial Martian hydrogen isotope ratios. The similar D/H ratios indicate that the Earth and Mars, and possibly the otherterrestrial planets, accreted

Vesta, as the second most massive asteroid, has long been perceived as anhydrous. Recent studies suggesting the presence of hydrated minerals and past subsurface water have challenged this long-standing perception. The volatile components indicate the presence of apatite in eucrites. Eucritic apatite is fluorine rich with minor chlorine and hydroxyl (calcu‐

The biochemist and sci-fi author IZAAK ASIMOV said [60]: "In the future coal will be probably substituted by nuclear energy, wood by plastics, meat by yeast and suspecting solitude by

The search for phosphate rock deposits became a global effort in the 20th century as the demand for phosphate rocks increased. The development of deposits further intensified in the 1950s and 1960s. The world production reached its peak in 1987 – 1988 and then again in 2008 with over 160 million metric tons (mmt) of the product. Phosphate rock mining has evolved over time, and worldwide, it relies on high volume and advanced technology using mainly open-pit mining methods and advanced transportation systems to move hundreds of millions of tons of overburden to produce hundreds of millions of tons of ore, which are beneficiated to produce approximately 160 mmt of phosphate rock concentrate per year. The concentrate of suitable grade and chemical quality is then used to produce phosphoric acid,

tic with large-scale lunar magmatism [104].

364 Apatites and their Synthetic Analogues - Synthesis, Structure, Properties and Applications

water from the same source [105].

lated by difference) [106],[107],[108].

**7.4. The future of phosphate rocks**

friendship, but there is no substitute for phosphorus."

Preliminary estimates of phosphate rock reserves range from 15,000 mmt to over 1,000,000 mmt, while the estimates of phosphate rock resources range from about 91,000 mmt to over 1,000,000 mmt. Using available literature, the reserves of various countries were assessed in the terms of reserves of concentrate. The IFDC30 estimate of worldwide reserve is approxi‐ mately 60,000 mmt of concentrate. Based on the data gathered, collated and analyzed for the IFDC report, there is no indication that a "peak phosphorus" event will occur in 20 – 25 years. Based on the data reviewed, and assuming current rates of production, phosphate rock concentrate reserves to produce fertilizers will be available for the next 300 – 400 years [23].

Phosphate rock prices will increase when the demand approaches the limits of supply. When the phosphate rock prices increase, some resources will become reserves, marginal mining

<sup>30</sup> International Fertilizer Development Center.

projects will become viable and the production will be stimulated. In the future, fuel and fuelrelated transportation costs may become even more important components in the world phosphate rock production scenario. The political disruption is always an unknown factor, and it can profoundly influence the supply and demand for fertilizer raw materials on a worldwide basis [22].
