**4. How climate change will affect livelihoods**

The economy and environment could be affected as a result of climate change especially in the absence of countermeasures. The following are some of the livelihood sectors that are likely to face some impacts according to [5] and other literature:-

*The health sector* impacts will affect the populations by altering the health status of millions of people, including through increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts. Increased malnutrition, environmentally related diseases such as cholera, dysentery, meningitis, lymphatic filariasis, yellow fever, malaria, TB among others in some areas will exert great pressure on the public health resources and development goals will be threatened by longer-term damage to health systems from disasters.

*In the water sector*, it is predicted that climate change will lead to an intensification of the global hydrological cycle hence having an impact on water resources. A change in both volume and distribution of water will affect both ground and surface water supply for industrial and domestic uses, irrigation, hydropower generation, navigation, in stream ecosystem and water based recreation. Drought-affected areas will likely become more widely distributed. In the event of drought in Arid and Semi arid environments sensitive to slight changes in climate, there is bound to be human – human and human - wildlife conflict with respect to use of the scarce resources. Heavier precipitation events are very likely to increase in frequency leading to higher flood risks. By mid-century, water availability will likely decrease in mid-latitudes, in the dry tropics and in other regions supplied by melt water from mountain ranges. More than one sixth of the world's population is currently dependent on melt water from mountain ranges.

**Figure 1.** Depicts typical ravages of climate change in Kerio Valley, Kenya May 2012

The economy and environment could be affected as a result of climate change especially in the absence of countermeasures. The following are some of the livelihood sectors that are likely

*The health sector* impacts will affect the populations by altering the health status of millions of people, including through increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts. Increased malnutrition, environmentally related diseases such as cholera, dysentery, meningitis, lymphatic filariasis, yellow fever, malaria, TB among others in some areas will exert great pressure on the public health resources and development goals will

*In the water sector*, it is predicted that climate change will lead to an intensification of the global hydrological cycle hence having an impact on water resources. A change in both volume and distribution of water will affect both ground and surface water supply for industrial and domestic uses, irrigation, hydropower generation, navigation, in stream ecosystem and water based recreation. Drought-affected areas will likely become more widely distributed. In the event of drought in Arid and Semi arid environments sensitive to slight changes in climate, there is bound to be human – human and human - wildlife conflict with respect to use of the scarce resources. Heavier precipitation events are very likely to increase in frequency leading to higher flood risks. By mid-century, water availability will likely decrease in mid-latitudes, in the dry tropics and in other regions supplied by melt water from mountain ranges. More than one sixth of the world's population is currently dependent on melt water from mountain

**4. How climate change will affect livelihoods**

238 Environmental Change and Sustainability

to face some impacts according to [5] and other literature:-

ranges.

be threatened by longer-term damage to health systems from disasters.

**Figure 2.** Fragile ecosystems are destroyed during heavy rainfall; a consequence of climate variability. Kerio Valley, Kenya, May 2012.

*Biodiversity and biomass energy will* be affected by climate change by affecting both plants and animals distribution, population sizes, physical structure, metabolism and behaviour. Climate induced changes will largely influence the distribution of tree parasites and pathogens which will ultimately play an important role in determining future tree distribution. Climate change alters conditions in ecosystem making species unable to cope with sudden changes. There has been direct and indirect impact on the forest ecosystem. The direct impacts result in water stress in plants due to prolonged dry spell. This in turn increases fire hazards in forest areas. The biomass energy sub sector is sensitive to climate variability as productivity is a function of rainfall and temperature. Increased temperatures leads to drying of biomass hence declining biomass productivity like decreased fuel wood supply. Globally, most households rely on wood fuel for the cooking and heating especially in sub-Saharan Africa thus endangering livelihoods and environmental sustainability.

*Agriculture/Food sector* will see those mid-latitude and high-latitude areas initially benefit from higher agricultural production and many others at lower latitudes, especially in seasonally dry and tropical regions. The increases in temperature and the frequency of droughts and floods are likely to affect crop production negatively, which could increase the number of people at risk from hunger and increased levels of displacement and migration in search of livelihoods.

Human *settlement and business* are the most vulnerable especially those located in coastal areas and river flood plains, and those whose economies are closely linked with climate-sensitive resources. This applies particularly to locations already prone to extreme weather events, and especially areas undergoing rapid urbanization. Where extreme weather events become more intense or more frequent, the economic and social costs of those events will increase. Cities loom as giant potential flood or other disaster traps.

*Livestock sector* is affected by climate changes by interfering with the distribution, production size and frequency of disease and pests. Livestock industry depends on the balance of pasturage and water resources supply and any form of change in climate will impact nega‐ tively the livestock sector. The impacts have largely been felt by pastoralist communities who have been forced to change their livelihood from pastoralists to sedentary agro pastoralist to survive.

Climate causes instability in the *tourism sector* for those countries whose economies are largely dependent on tourism. Addition or reduction in precipitation leads to wildlife devastation and reduces the aesthetic value of sceneries hence impacting on livelihoods dependent on the industry.

*Gender* is similarly impacted by climate change. The gender poverty link show that 70% of the poor in the world are women and their vulnerability is accentuated by race, ethnicity and age. Most climate change policies, issues and programs are not quite gender neutral despite the fact that women and men are affected differently due to tradition, socially constructed roles and responsibilities.
