**3. Risk identification and analysis**

To identify the risk of natural disasters at an individual, local or national level, it is necessary to estimate the potential magnitude and probability of natural hazards, as well as to estimate the potential magnitude and probability of natural hazards, as well as to evaluate the vulner‐ ability of each of them. According to Keipi and Tyson (2002), vulnerability may be evaluated from various standpoints (physical, social, political, technological, institutional, environmen‐ tal, cultural and educational). Vulnerability to natural disasters is the result of anthropogenic factors; that is, factors that result from the interaction between human beings and nature. Additionally, vulnerability is a consequence of the individual and political decisions that a society makes before a hazard occurs, which are evident once the disaster takes place (ECLAC-IDB, 2000).

**9.** Include hazard assessment and vulnerability reduction measures as a part of provincial

**10.** Include landslide hazard and vulnerability assessments in metropolitan areas and on

**11.** Use of geographical information systems in national, provincial, and local government level analysis of natural hazards, resources, populations, critical facilities, infrastructure.

**DISASTER** 

**Reconstruction and rehabilitation** 

**Identification of** 

**risks** 

To identify the risk of natural disasters at an individual, local or national level, it is necessary to estimate the potential magnitude and probability of natural hazards, as well as to estimate the potential magnitude and probability of natural hazards, as well as to evaluate the vulner‐ ability of each of them. According to Keipi and Tyson (2002), vulnerability may be evaluated from various standpoints (physical, social, political, technological, institutional, environmen‐ tal, cultural and educational). Vulnerability to natural disasters is the result of anthropogenic factors; that is, factors that result from the interaction between human beings and nature.

**Prevention and mitigation** 

**Emergency response** 

and local development plans.

266 Environmental Change and Sustainability

critical transportation routes.

**Risk transfer** 

Source: Keipi and Tyson, 2002

**Figure 2.** Risk Management as a Virtuous Circle

**3. Risk identification and analysis**

**Preparations** 

Freeman, et al (2001), analyze the components of different types of vulnerability and cite studies that make an effort to measure the potential physical, social and economic consequen‐ ces of natural phenomena. Those who concentrate on physical vulnerability analyze the impact on buildings, infrastructures and agriculture. For example, the Latin American's Council on Applied Technology publishes vulnerability studies on the earthquake resistance of 50 types of structures (ATC, 1985). Those who focus on social vulnerability estimate the impacts on especially susceptible groups such as the poor, pregnant women and infants, the handicapped, children and youths. Those interested in economic vulnerability calculate the potential impacts on economic processes and assets.

The results of the hazard analysis and of the evaluation of vulnerability are then combined to yield an estimate of risk (defined as expected loss per period) (Keipi and Tyson, 2002). A full scope evaluation of risk encompasses the appraisal of potential losses generated by the disaster and identification of those affected by the risk. The evaluation of the risk makes it possible to develop risk management strategies with two basic components:


The availability of information is critical for any action aimed at reducing the impact of disasters. Projection of the likelihood of their occurrence and estimates of their impact allow decision makers to evaluate the total risk to a country, a geographical area or a specific sector, as well as to establish concrete prevention and mitigation measures and investments.

According to Keipi and Tyson (2002), prevention and mitigation actions require a good understanding of natural threats, vulnerability and risk. For example, given the frequency of disaster events that have occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean, on many occasions, investments in prevention and mitigation in the affected countries were not adequate to withstand the natural threats (see also Charveriat, 2002).
