**Step 5. Investigate probable impacts**

Investigation of the social impacts identified during scoping is the most important component of the SIA. A range of methods, including modelling and scenarios, can be deployed to investigate probable future impacts. Hazardous events (as external factors or consequences of the project) and their risk or uncertainty should be included in trend and scenario analysis. As part of the latter, scenarios should be developed of the social consequences of exposure to the hazards identified (e.g., using fault- or event-tree procedures).2 Records of previous experi‐ ences (including disaster events) provide valuable data for this process.
