**2.3. Risk**

disruption or environmental degradation. Hazards can include hidden conditions that may represent future threats and can have different origins. These include natural (geological, hydro-meteorological and biological) and/or induced by human processes (environmental

According to Niekerk (2002) hazards can be single, sequential or combined in their origin and

Each hazard is characterized by its location, intensity and probability. Typical examples of hazards can be the absence of rain (leading to drought) or the abundance thereof (leading to flooding). Chemical manufacturing plants near settlements can also be seen as hazards.

Similarly, incorrect agricultural techniques will in the long run lead to possible disasters such as loss of crops and famine. Hazards can either be a creation of humans or the environment. Although the farmer can be planned for than the latter, in both cases, the management of

Vulnerabilities is a set of prevailing or consequential conditions resulting from physical, social, economic and environmental factors, which increase the sustainability of a community to the impact of hazards (ISDR 2002: 24). It can comprise of physical, socio-economic, environmental and/or political factors that adversely affect the ability of communities to respond to events (Jegillos, 1999). Blaike et al (1994) is of the opinion that vulnerability is the characteristics of person or group in terms of their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the

Vulnerability can be expressed as the degree of loss resulting from potentially damaging phenomenon or hazard (Niekerk, 2002). In other words, vulnerabilities can be measured by the level of fatality i.e. amount of deaths, losses of properties or cash etc. Population increases due to high birth rate and the lack of good governance do make communities in developing

The community and its members may or may not be willing participants in contributing to or tolerating the conditions leading to vulnerability. Taken together, they create a dynamic mix of variables, each of which results from a continuous process. Vulnerabilities can be physical, social or attitudinal and can be primary or secondary in nature. If there are positive factors, that increase ability to respond to needs effectively or which reduce susceptibility, they are

degradation and technological hazards) (ISDR 2002: 24).

effects.

hazard will remain the same.

262 Environmental Change and Sustainability

**2.2. Vulnerabilities**

impact of a hazard.

**•** Political factors

**•** Economic factors

**•** Physical factors

**•** Social factors

nations to be highly vulnerable to hazards.

considered capabilities or coping mechanics.

Aspects contributing to vulnerability:

Risk is usually associated with the inability of people to manage hazard events that may eventually lead to negative consequences like destruction of the environment, socio-economic activities, properties and losses of lives.

Risk in terms of disaster management has a specific focus (UN, 1992). It can be defined as the probability of harmful consequences (ISDR, 2002), or expected losses (lives lost, persons injured, damage to property and/or the environment, livelihoods lost, disruption of economic activity or social systems) due to the interaction between humans, hazards and vulnerable conditions. Risk is therefore the possibility that a particular hazard might exploit a particular vulnerability (Nierkerk, 2002).

It is the production of the possible damage caused by a hazard due to the vulnerability within a community. In other words, risk is usually due to hazard events exploiting the vulnerable situation of an environment or community. The poorer communities are more at risk because of their high vulnerability to hazard situations due to their low coping capacities. The percep‐ tion of risk and causes vary from community to communities and culture to cultures.

Two elements are essential in the formulation or risk: the probability of occurrence of a given threat (e.g. a hazard); and the degree of susceptibility of the element (e.g. a rural community) exposed to that source (vulnerability (ISDR, 2002: 41).
