**9. Carbon reduction prices**

There are only a few credible studies on future carbon price forecasts. It is assumed that 2010 prices for each generation types which are also given in Table 7 will be applicable in 2020 for voluntary market prices. As given in Table 7, the price projections of some analysts for Phase III period of EU ETS (2010-2020) are used for the CDM/JI and EU ETS prices in 2020.The single projected price of CDM/JI which is 20 €/tCO2e (25 USD/ tCO2e) as given in this table, is taken as it is while the average estimation of three different prices (30, 35 and 40 US\$) presented is taken as a reference for EU ETS price forecast which is 35 €/tCO2e (45 USD/ tCO2e) [35].

As given in Table 8, wind energy potential of Turkey is 50,000 MW. But according to the TEIAS [25], only 8,000 MW of these potential has high level wind speed (i.e. capacity factor is 40%). The entire 40.000 MW potential have a moderate wind speed (ie. capacity factor is 25%-30%).


**Table 7.** Voluntary credit price changes by project type in 2010

( )

rate of the technology.

14 New Developments in Renewable Energy

technology types are given in Table 6.

where SCIP is the current specific capital investment cost, CP is the current global installed capacity, CF is the installed capacity of the technology in a future time, and LR is the learning

The learning rates for each technology type and estimated 2020 capacities for each technology are taken from the literature [32]. The calculated decrease by 2020 for capital cost of each

**Electricity generation technology Learning rates rate from 2008 to 2020**

There are only a few credible studies on future carbon price forecasts. It is assumed that 2010 prices for each generation types which are also given in Table 7 will be applicable in 2020 for voluntary market prices. As given in Table 7, the price projections of some analysts for Phase III period of EU ETS (2010-2020) are used for the CDM/JI and EU ETS prices in 2020.The single projected price of CDM/JI which is 20 €/tCO2e (25 USD/ tCO2e) as given in this table, is taken as it is while the average estimation of three different prices (30, 35 and 40 US\$) presented is taken as a reference for EU ETS price forecast which is 35 €/tCO2e (45 USD/ tCO2e) [35].

As given in Table 8, wind energy potential of Turkey is 50,000 MW. But according to the TEIAS [25], only 8,000 MW of these potential has high level wind speed (i.e. capacity factor is 40%). The entire 40.000 MW potential have a moderate wind speed (ie. capacity factor is 25%-30%).

Pvotovoltaics (PV) 24% 13% Wind-Onshore (good wind) 8% 14% Wind-Onshore (Moderate wind) 8% 14% Wind-Offshore 8% 19% Solar thermal with storage 10% 13% Geothermal 10% 8% Biomass Gasifier 5% 8% MSW/landfill Gas 12% 6% Biogas 13% 7% Mini Hydropower 2% 5%

**Table 6.** Decrease in capital cost by learning rate for each technology types

**9. Carbon reduction prices**

ln 1-LR/ln2 ( )

F P \* F P SCI = SCI C /C (1)

**Capital cost decrease**


**Table 8.** Renewable source potential, utilization by 2010 and target for 2030
